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awaters2121

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Feb. 10, 2020
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Detroit Red Wings
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Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 14, 2023 at 12:19 a.m.
Thread: if Larks is out long term
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KingofRnR</b></div><div>Calgary counters with:

BOS's 2024-1st (Super Late) + Marco Kasper (Ain't Exactly Killing It in the AHL) + one of either Berggren/Rasmussen/Veleno/Dylan James/Andrew Gibson/Noah Dower Nilsson
FOR
Lindholm 50% Retained</div></div>

Detroit counters with: Thank you for your consideration, if you would like to come back to the table later we will gladly offer two seconds, Berggren, Maatta (as you might need some more LD soon) and Eemil Viro. If that's not of interest we would consider a counteroffer, but we understand you may be looking for some more value elsewhere. We look forward to any future business we can conduct and wish Mr. Lindholm the best of luck for the remainder of this season and wish him well in his contract negotiations this summer.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 6, 2023 at 11:29 p.m.
Thread: Wings 2024-2025 Free Agency
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuzzledActuary</b></div><div>In what universe is Ras worth $2.5M?</div></div>

Currently, he's a 24-year-old versatile middle-six two-way power forward who kills penalties, is consistently tasked with tough defensive assignments, and could fill in on the Power Play if needed. It's essentially a million-dollar raise and still only accounts for 2.9% of the overall cap.

There are 60 forwards in the NHL who make between what Ras makes now in $1.46 mill and the proposed $2.5 mill. He currently ranks 18th in points, 20th in P/PG, and is tied for 2nd in +/- while playing 15 min a night. https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2024/toi/all/forwards?stats-season=2024&amp;limits=caphit-1460000-2500000

Is $2.5 mill a little high, sure, but it certainly would be within reason or a range of expected salary and seems silly to be overly critical of given the fact that within two years the salary cap is likely to go up by around $8.5 million. Especially when put into the context of a group of players who make similar amounts and have similar roles.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 5, 2023 at 12:25 a.m.
Thread: Continuing the fun
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BigBadBurke</b></div><div>i don't quite understand why zadina went unclaimed... can anyone explain that to me? Earth to the hawks/sharks/yotes</div></div>

The current free agent market has quite a few options for 3rd &amp; 4th liners, Zadina is likely looking for a top 9/top 6 role, term likely doesn't help too much, lots of team with healthy depth are currently over the cap (Toronto) and required to make moves which Hawks/Sharks/Yotes would like to know who those options are first before committing a roster spot to Zadina, most teams just drafted a class and/or have prospects they would like to see at development camps currently going on before taking up any roster spots. And once a player is claimed off waivers if you want to trade them down the road any other team that put in a claim can get them first. So there are a few reasons other than he doesn't score goals/produce points.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 17, 2023 at 4:08 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 17, 2023 at 12:07 p.m.
Thread: Next Yzear
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>McSorley</b></div><div>Where do you fit in Fabbri, Zadina, Kubalik, and Berggren? Is one of them gonna have to be the odd man out?</div></div>

The Kubalik deal might be in the ballpark for a current deal with Bertuzzi if you add Vladdy for salary purposes.

But to answer your question the odd man out in your situation would be Derek Ryan. All the forwards from the St. Louis crew are pretty old &amp; have gone through a lot of injuries. Having Zadina or Sunny scratched to start the season would be a nice luxury to have when the inevitable injuries happen. My preference would be for them to rotate Soderblom, Zadina &amp;/or Kubalik with Perron, Sunny, &amp; Fabbri in hopes of keeping them as fresh as possible for a playoff run.

I love the Cal Foote addition, would be interesting to see if Edvinsson at 21 would be well suited to play 3rd pair minutes with a 24-year-old with only 115 GP. In my ideal hypothetical, I'd like to see this:
Walman-Seider
Maatta-Hronek
Chiarot-Foote or Edvinsson-Chiarot.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 30, 2021 at 5:12 p.m.
Thread: Preferred Offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RedWings86</b></div><div>LGD salary is definitely an overpayment. I know Dunn is a hot commodity on here, but I hope we keep that pick (I’d go a 2nd and B prospect instead, or not trade at all) and TANK. Not to say the Wings are ever lucky, but finishing last gives you the best odds and these upcoming drafts have the franchise players the Wings desperately need.</div></div>

LGD salary was a mistake that has now been corrected. I'm on the fence with the Dunn trade, there are a number of players I'd love for the wings to draft with that pick (Especially Cossa if he is available), but a young 24-year-old defenseman with a proven track record and likely progression is tough to come by. I don't think a 2nd and a b prospect gets Dunn. The biggest factor for me is how well (IMO) he would fit the rebuild, I think with Hronek, Dunn, and Seider there is a small core group that could be there for 5-10 years while the Wings bring in one older defenseman and fill in the remaining two spots with prospects or another veteran free agent. Dunn provides some versatility with being able to play both LD and RD. A UBC Business School study found that defensemen "improve and decline more slowly than forwards do and perform within 90% of their peak from 24 to 34 years old (two longer than forwards), and 26 is their most common age." According to Dobber Prospects, about 74 % of 1st round picks end up playing over 100 games and that's 65% for "Late 1st round (16-31") picks. By my count, the Red Wings have taken 10 defensemen in the last three years of drafting, it's likely that besides Seider the rest take 2-4 years of development before seeing NHL ice. Exchanging a late 1st round pick for a proven NHL player that could play for the Wings for the next 3-8 years while still having one high first-round pick and 11 additional picks this year along with 10 next year seems to fit the rebuild. I think it's safe to say that the Red Wings will remain in the draft lottery for the next two years, but it will be difficult to be worse than Columbus and Buffalo and Yzerman has consistently stated that he wants the team to be competitive during the rebuild. But, the last offseason is a good example that Yzerman is good at finding quality free agents, Merril and Stecher fill the void perfectly, and arguably just bringing back Merril could provide an applicable stop-gap (but only 1-3 years) while maintaining a high percentage shot on the dartboard of prospects.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/when-nhl-players-peak-hockey-metrics-1.2646054
https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 30, 2021 at 3:38 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 23, 2021 at 12:41 p.m.
Thread: trade deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JaredOfLondon</b></div><div>Is that Detroit trade part of a bet to see if the leafs can still compete after adding two of the worst players from the leagues worst team? A 7th would be an overpayment for that return.</div></div>

This is downright disrespectful. The Buffalo Sabers have worked really hard to be the worst team in the league and for you to not recognize that is unfair and unjust. Please give them respect! Losing 14 games in a row and you can't even give them the common courtesy of identifying them in an internet chat room discussion post tolling attempt? Come on man! Who hurt you?

Also, go look at a picture of Jon Merril. He is the god damn best-looking salt of the earth, makin lots of babies, fix your car on the side of the road and fill up your tank with gas, sun set watching with your daughter and you feel good that she is protected by a good man, shirt of his back so you don't get a sunburn, saves kittens, hockey player! Also serioulsy Luke Glendening and Jon Merrill are the worst Red Wings?
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 22, 2021 at 2:53 p.m.
Thread: Meh messing around
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aedoran</b></div><div>Maybe about a month ago before Burke went to Pittsburgh on HIC they were discussing players demanding trades that haven't done much to make themselves tradable. Burke went on about Bennett work ethic and how he really like Bennett and recently the rumors have Bennett going to Pittsburgh. But they are just rumors and I could be wrong about Bennett going to Pittsburgh.</div></div>

It's just another wrinkle in this weird trade deadline coming up! With Burke and Hextall in Pittsburg, Sutter in Calgary, NY Islanders injuries, Philly kind of falling apart, Buffalo actually falling apart, no teams playing outside of their division, COVID scares, Injuries, short season, revenue being down,, flat cap, just so many things going on it's crazy to try and keep track of them. It's gonna be a weird one.

Bennett to Pitts would make a lot of sense, not sure what they can offer that will top other teams, I sure don't think my offer was all that great. Mostly think it's the kind of move Sutter would like. I think every team in the North division needs an upgrade, boost, or additional depth on defense. I figure Staal or Nemeth are quality candidates to fit that, Brome might be a nice addition for a team looking for some quickness and decent defensive responsibility, I also think he has a lot of potential to get on the score sheet on a decent fourth line. But, that's all dependent on a team being really high on him. Not sure if that's out there. I just thought it was an interesting trade.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 22, 2021 at 10:55 a.m.
Thread: Realistic TDL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>So your saying Yzerman wouldn't take a 3rd + a prospect like Hillis or Gordon? Or how about a 3rd + 5th (Ott) which is basically a 4th? It would be bad asset management to turn down any deal involving Glendenning with retention just because you don't want to retain 900k. BTW I don't think anyone would ask for retention, I am just making a point that Yzerman would retain IF asked to for additional assets.</div></div>

To be honest, it's mostly just tiring that people just throw in salary retention with most Red Wings trades. Whether accurate or not I'm not sure, but Red Wings have a chance to move 3-5 players at the deadline. The incorrect assumption is that the Red Wings are not strict with their cap management. They are making all of the "paper moves" that everyone else is with the taxi squad. They are going to be very deliberate with how they manage their cap space with the revenue losses that the league has faced. Personally, I think I agree with the idea that Glendening is the last player the Red Wings would want to be retaining any salary on. If they can move Staal, Ryan, Gagner, Bernier with Salary Retention for exactly the situation you described there is still a market for Glendenning with his current salary.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 22, 2021 at 10:37 a.m.
Thread: Realistic TDL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DiehardRedWingsFan58</b></div><div>Sure Luke Glendening $900,000 50% retention for either a 2021/2022 2nd round pick perhaps, But you and i know full well that he isn't going to get that kind of return.</div></div>

Difficult to say where the market will be at. Tampa paid 1st round picks for Coleman and Goodrow last year. Not a comparison for what Glendening should be worth, but does show teams' willingness to overpay for players they believe will help them win the Cup. Sure seems like a lot of teams are interested in Luke, Wings could use salary retention as leverage, especially if they don't intend to trade more than three players.

With Bernier injury, Staal might not be in demand, Ryan is cheap already, it doesn't seem out of the question that Wings would be ready and willing to retain for a higher pick.