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awaters2121

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Feb. 10, 2020
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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 17, 2023 at 6:04 a.m.
Thread: Next Yzear
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tonyhzs</b></div><div>No on trading Kubalik. I get that he is a one trick pony and is next to useless defensively (with useless being more useful than Kubalik). He scores in bunches, but he gets a lot of timely goals. Keeping him sheltered makes him more effective. Detroit doesn't have anyone Kubalik, as I kind of hoped Zadina would be at least that good offensively but with a two way game.

No on signing Braun. Team doesn't need that type of defenseman, there are better choices for the 7th D.

Walman should get more, Sunny less by a little. Walman might walk for more term elsewhere. He is in an odd spot where a prove it deal may net the same result as signing a 5 year deal elsewhere for 4 to 5 million, vs signing a 2 year deal and being 28 for the next deal. A team might be willing to gamble on Walman, but not Detroit.</div></div>

Where do you fit in Fabbri, Zadina, Kubalik, and Berggren? Is one of them gonna have to be the odd man out?
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 18, 2022 at 2:16 p.m.
Thread: Preferred Wings Destinations
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>awaters2121</b></div><div>I guess I was figuring with the number of injuries this season &amp; with a couple of waiver exempt D that they might be able to fit him in for the last part of the season. Could just be in the press box for most of it, he has just played well against other Western Conference playoff teams and personally like the fit.</div></div>

The only waiver exempt guy on the list I gave is Bjornfot, and he's one of the regulars. Edler has been out with a broken ankle for months and just returned to the lineup last night. Wolanin is waiver exempt only because he cleared waivers earlier in the season, and he has since been returned to Ontario due to Elder's return. Moverare is currently up covering for Anderson's injury, and will likely lose his waiver exemption due to the 10-game/30-day rule, so he'd need to clear waivers again to be returned to the AHL, which is unlikely since he has been really good in his 8 games so far.

So assuming Bjornfot, Anderson, and Edler are your defensemen when everyone is healthy and Maatta is the #7 guy, you're still in bind because you need to find something to do with Moverare unless you want to lose him to waivers. You could run with 8 defensemen since several of the young forwards are waiver exempt (which might be what they do), but then there's definitely no room to acquire another depth defenseman.

If LA goes out and acquires a top-pairing LHD like Provorov or Chychrun as they're reportedly shopping for, then you can afford to lose one of Maatta or Moverare to trade/waivers, because then Bjornfot becomes the #7 defenseman.

Either way, there's no room for another depth guy on the roster.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 30, 2021 at 7:52 p.m.
Thread: Preferred Offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>awaters2121</b></div><div>LGD salary was a mistake that has now been corrected. I'm on the fence with the Dunn trade, there are a number of players I'd love for the wings to draft with that pick (Especially Cossa if he is available), but a young 24-year-old defenseman with a proven track record and likely progression is tough to come by. I don't think a 2nd and a b prospect gets Dunn. The biggest factor for me is how well (IMO) he would fit the rebuild, I think with Hronek, Dunn, and Seider there is a small core group that could be there for 5-10 years while the Wings bring in one older defenseman and fill in the remaining two spots with prospects or another veteran free agent. Dunn provides some versatility with being able to play both LD and RD. A UBC Business School study found that defensemen "improve and decline more slowly than forwards do and perform within 90% of their peak from 24 to 34 years old (two longer than forwards), and 26 is their most common age." According to Dobber Prospects, about 74 % of 1st round picks end up playing over 100 games and that's 65% for "Late 1st round (16-31") picks. By my count, the Red Wings have taken 10 defensemen in the last three years of drafting, it's likely that besides Seider the rest take 2-4 years of development before seeing NHL ice. Exchanging a late 1st round pick for a proven NHL player that could play for the Wings for the next 3-8 years while still having one high first-round pick and 11 additional picks this year along with 10 next year seems to fit the rebuild. I think it's safe to say that the Red Wings will remain in the draft lottery for the next two years, but it will be difficult to be worse than Columbus and Buffalo and Yzerman has consistently stated that he wants the team to be competitive during the rebuild. But, the last offseason is a good example that Yzerman is good at finding quality free agents, Merril and Stecher fill the void perfectly, and arguably just bringing back Merril could provide an applicable stop-gap (but only 1-3 years) while maintaining a high percentage shot on the dartboard of prospects.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/when-nhl-players-peak-hockey-metrics-1.2646054
https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/</div></div>

I’m with you on Cossa. I hope he falls, heck trade up a few picks if need be.

Dunn does fit quite well in that DET needs a LHD and he’s still young. I know that D take longer to develop unlike forwards and thus their prime is staggered slightly, so definitely not coming at this from a perspective of him not being a good fit. Obviously STL will set the bar high (all teams do, even BUF although Eichel’s value is lower now than what they are actually asking for) and I think DET’s offer starts with their late or mid 2nd rounder and a prospect (low ball as it should), I just haven’t seen enough in their rebuild to warrant giving up a 1st rounder right now. My height is the Wings 2021 2nd and a B prospect, and this is also considering STL is not trading from a position of strength.

Sure a bidding war could ensue, but if that happens, I think a bubble team will more than likely get him for there 1st. There are plenty on here that easily give up WSH’s 1st and there are plenty with worse offers than mine, I just try to fall in the middle. And hey that’s why we’re all ACGMs and not actual GMs!
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 22, 2021 at 10:13 a.m.
Thread: Realistic TDL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DiehardRedWingsFan58</b></div><div>Like i've stated on numerous threads like this one, the odds of Yzerman retaining on Glendening are fairly slim, Yzerman will want to retain on Bernier, Helm, Nemeth, Filppula or Staal not on a miniscule $1.8 million for Luke Glendening.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>buffbry</b></div><div>Same story different day wings aren't retaining on LGD</div></div>

And that is why you guys are not GM's, any GM will retain on any player as long as they are compensated for it (unless they are MB who not only gives away players but retains on them as well, Kovalchuck) Kovalchuck was only at 750k and Montreal retained half of that (they should have gotten an additional pick but that is on MB). If the only player who is garnering any interest is Glendening or if they only trade two of them and one is Glendenning Yzerman would retain on him to maximize the return. To say Yzerman won't retain on a Glendenning trade is not correct, perhaps more of a "Yzerman will not retain on Glendenning unless it benefits the Wings" would be more appropriate.

Also, No one wants Filppula or Helm and very few others will want Nemeth, so the Wings won't have to worry about retaining on them. Luckily for the Wings though they are all UFA's at the end of the season so they won't hurt the cap situation going forward (unless the Wings can't hit the cap floor, but I doubt that would be a problem, they aren't after all Ottawa).
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 22, 2021 at 10:20 a.m.
Thread: Realistic TDL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>And that is why you guys are not GM's, any GM will retain on any player as long as they are compensated for it (unless they are MB who not only gives away players but retains on them as well, Kovalchuck) Kovalchuck was only at 750k and Montreal retained half of that (they should have gotten an additional pick but that is on MB). If the only player who is garnering any interest is Glendening or if they only trade two of them and one is Glendenning Yzerman would retain on him to maximize the return. To say Yzerman won't retain on a Glendenning trade is not correct, perhaps more of a "Yzerman will not retain on Glendenning unless it benefits the Wings" would be more appropriate.</div></div>

Sure Luke Glendening @ $900,000 50% retention for either a 2021/2022 2nd round pick perhaps, But you and i know full well that he isn't going to get that kind of return.