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budgeteam

couldnt afford 2nd t
Member Since
Sep. 26, 2021
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Ottawa Senators
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Arizona Coyotes
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Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsJan. 10 at 6:48 p.m.
Thread: Tim Stutzle 1 4 1 4 Robert Thomas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>No reason for either team to do this. Alot more could go wrong for both teams than could go right. I'd imagine both teams are pretty happy with their guy too. Both are really good young 1Cs.</div></div>

I don't think you're wrong. The idea behind the trade comes from most GMs and coaches having a bias towards players they have won with, and the rumors that Ottawa might try to send a lightning bolt through their core. Add in the connection between Thomas and the Tkachuk family, it has a pretty solid backstory for a trade proposal.

If I am St.Louis, I would absolutely do this, but I agree that it is unlikely that either side would do this in real life. It's too much risk.

Thomas is the better player right now, but Stutzle has the higher ceiling, and his floor is not that far below where Thomas is now. Stutzle also does not have a full-NTC, Thomas does starting in 2025 until 2030. Stutzle only has a 10-team NTC. That gives St.Louis a lot more flexibility long-term.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsDec. 19, 2023 at 5:13 p.m.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsOct. 26, 2023 at 11:44 p.m.
Thread: the best way for Tampa to solve their goalie problem daccording to me
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Boltsradynasty</b></div><div>. I was being very friendly actually by giving you the benefit of the doubt you weren't actually dumb enough to believe I meant the fifth over all pick and attributed it to miscommunication. I may have been wrong, I apologize for that I I am
The other 2 types of people who responded as you did are morons and trolls if you're either and found anything I said offensive or unfriendly that's on you.
Seriously Johansson is a year older , played 18 more NHL games has a better GAA and same save % as Daccord so please provide an intelligent explanation why TB considers giving up a first round pick? My offer of a fifth was actually a legitimate and reasonable offer unlike the extremely outrageous bulls*** you delusionally expect.</div></div>

The reply was a joke. The way you wrote your previous post, it left things up to interpretation because instead of saying a 5th round pick, you said "a 5". A 5 could mean a 5th round pick or a 5th overall pick. It's reasonable to assume that you meant a 5th round pick, because we are nearly a year away from the draft, we don't know who has the 5th overall pick. Those two things in combination create humour around a common misunderstanding. It was my way of connecting with you, as one human to another.

You could say my reply was capricious, but you could also say I was trying to being friendly, almost like I was being, capfriendly.
Forum: NHL SigningsSep. 29, 2023 at 2:12 p.m.
Thread: Minnesota Wild signed Mats Zuccarello (2 Years / $4,125,000 AAV)
He will be 37 when the contract kicks in.

It is difficult to come up with comparable contracts, because there aren't that many forwards who sign at that age. There are quite a few forwards who sign contracts somewhere around age 34-35, but it seems like there is a huge difference in risk between a 34 year old and a 37 year old with how likely it would be that a player might decline between the ages of 34-38.

It is similar to what Pavelski got if you combine his previous two 1 year contracts and average out the AAV.

I think it is more likely that the Wild might regret the second year on this contract, but at the same time there is the human element. Zuccarello is a veteran player who over the last few years has played above his cap hit. If he is important to their room, I can see how they might have been motivated to get it done and avoid the implications of booting out a well-liked core veteran.

I don't think he should have gotten 2 years in this scenario, but I can see why they might have done it. Year-to-year is always better for veterans at that age, where they can fall off a cliff at any moment. If he were a few years younger, 2-3 years would be fine.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsSep. 26, 2023 at 1:25 p.m.
Thread: Joseph for Ryan Ellis LTIRetired
Ignore the draft picks. The trade machine kept giving me an error with Ellis in any trade.

The trade is:
M. Joseph (3 x 3M)

for

R. Ellis (4 x 6.25M) (LTIRetired)

This is similar to Dadonov for Weber. LTIR is a massive competitive handicap. Despite the common misconception on fan forums, it is not the same as "free" cap space. Having a long-term LTIR contract is a massive headache. The Senators are backed into a corner and do not want to give up a 1st round pick, so they take back an LTIRetired player for the short term benefit of getting Pinto signed. It doesn't hurt the Senators this season since they will be right at the 83.5M cap ceiling. With that said, it will likely hurt them sometime in the next four years.

The Flyers get out of LTI and free up additional cap space which can be used at the trade deadline to facilitate trades as a third team, or can be used to acquire cap dumps for draft picks. The rumour is that they like Joseph as a player, but want a major asset to take him. Ottawa taking Ellis is that major asset.

This trade heavily favours Philadelphia, and I highly doubt the Senators would do this unless they had no other option. It would almost be preferably to give up a protected 1st or Boucher and wipe their hands from the cap issues. Acquiring a big money LTIRetired contract with 4 years remaining will cause headaches down the line and the Ellis contract would likely cost more to move in terms of picks/prospects next year than the Joseph one does now.

The big difference between this contract and the Weber contract is that the Weber contract was owed very little real money (a few hundred k per season after insurance). That made it easy for the Knights to eventually dump. Ellis is owed a lot of money. We also don't know if he is insured. Even if he is insured, he will still be owed seven figures per season, which would not be easy to find a taker for in the future if the Senators want to get out of LTI.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsSep. 25, 2023 at 5:22 p.m.
Thread: Joseph - Stanley Trade
The Senators don't need Stanley, unless Brannstrom or JBD is going the other way. Thomson will also be waiver eligible this season, although I could see him possibly going unclaimed.

A first is a fair ask for dumping Joseph right now, but I don't think the Senators will want to pay it. There are creative ways around opening up enough space to sign Pinto and roll with a 21 player roster. Especially if they can move one of Brannstrom or Kubalik without cap coming back. At that point, if they bury Joseph and Forsberg (temporarily), they can sign Pinto at 2.5M and ice a 21 player roster. If Norris is going to be LTIR eligible to start the season, it also makes it easier because they won't have to bury anybody until Norris is ready to return and they can run with a 23 player roster.
Forum: NHL SigningsSep. 22, 2023 at 1:10 p.m.
Thread: Ottawa Senators signed Djibril Touré (3 Years / $805,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CSStrowbridge</b></div><div>There's a limit to the number of contracts a team can have and I'm not sure why a team would use one of its six remaining contract slots on this player.</div></div>

The Senators only had 5 picks in the 2023 draft. Most of those were in the 7th round. Their earliest pick was in the 4th round. Additionally, they do not have a deep prospect pool. For a team that has come out of a long rebuild, they did not accrue the same level of prospects that most other teams do. They averaged about 7 picks per draft since the rebuild started in 2018. So it isn't as if the rebuild allowed them to restock the cupboards by all that much. They did an exceptional job at drafting a core of top-end players like Stutzle, Sanderson, Tkachuk, etc - but did not build up as much organizational depth as would usually be expected in a successful rebuild.

This is because they were unable to capitalize on their cap space due to the combination of a restrictive budget, and an owner who needed cash flow through ticket sales. Meaning, they couldn't go scorched earth. They had to make trades like a 2nd round pick for Derek Stepan, or make moves like holding on to Mark Stone and Matt Duchene throughout the season rather than trading them at the draft in their contract year, when they likely would have commanded the biggest return.

The short of it is, they are unlikely to have issues with their contract limit during the 3 year period of this contract because they simply don't have a higher-than-normal amount of players who will come from the reserve list and command ELCs. The Senators have nobody on their reserve list to sign until 2025.

On a side note, this is not a random signing. Toure played in Carleton-Place and Hawkesbury. Basically, in the Senators backyard. Who knows what his Junior career might have looked like if things weren't so fragmented due to COVID. Had the 2020-21 season not been cancelled, perhaps he would have ended up in the CHL earlier, and by extension maybe he ends up drafted. He is a late bloomer. It's a free 7th round pick basically.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 22, 2023 at 10:03 a.m.
Thread: Dorion Gets Creative
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>I agree that we can afford to trade Brannstrom because Kleven is coming up and fits more the team plans

However I disagree that he'd have negative value right now, his metrics last season were more than excellent, they have shown that he was actually too good for a 3rd pairing. And he proved it when Chabot was injured as he looked even better in games where he played more minutes

Did you know that he has averaged 24 pts per 82 games over the last 3 seasons, since he was 21 y/o? If he just adds a little bit offense he would become a very hot commodity as he just turned 24 y/o and is still on his RFA years

Pearson on the other hand only played 14 games last season and didn't have great production in the last 3 seasons. He's not very good defensively so he has to produces to have value</div></div>

The issue is that we are in the worst time all season to dump cap space. Less than a third of the league have the cap flexibility to add a 2M player. Out of those 10 or so teams, a few of them are budget teams. Which means even if they have the cap, they do not have the spending to back it up.

A team would give up an asset for Brannstrom at the trade deadline, since they could acquire him as either a rental (by not qualifying him) or a long term piece, and it is easier to fit in cap at the deadline. I don't think there would be a market for Brannstrom (or Kubalik for that matter) right now without cap coming back, because cap is too valuable and scarce. Cap coming back defeats the point, unless it is LTIRetired players that can be placed on LTIR to raise the Senators ceiling once they hit 83.4XX.

The above is the thinking behind Brannstrom and the ARZ trade. Yes, it would be much easier if it could just be Brannstrom to whoever for a draft pick, I just don't think that's likely.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 21, 2023 at 11:55 a.m.
Thread: Dorion Gets Creative
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>Soderstrom is still waivers exempt so that is a plus. If it makes it work with the cap then I'd be ok with this

I wanted to trade Brannstrom for a young forward but that could work as well, although the defense is already very crowded for now and the future

Also good for the Yotes because Brannstrom is quite good at this thing called hockey</div></div>

Brannstrom still has potential to be a very useful #4 defenceman. At worst, he's a bottom pairing defender who could PP the #1 unit on a less talented team, or a #2 unit on a good team. The reason he is expendable has more to do with Ottawa's team makeup than Brannstrom's trajectory.

He's probably worth a 3rd-4th round pick at the trade deadline, but he might have negative value right now. It's the most difficult possible time to move out salary cap. Look at how Vancouver just paid a 3rd round pick to move out Tanner Pearson on an expiring contract at a net cap of 1.45M (3.25M minus DeSmith's 1.8M hit going back to VAN).
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 20, 2023 at 8:34 p.m.
Thread: Dorion Gets Creative
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Yotes269</b></div><div>The first paragraph is correct. The 2nd just explains what they already plan to do with söderstrom, plus he’s a rhd which is more valuable anyways. The trade doesn’t work for Arizona at all.</div></div>

As stated in my post, you can take Soderstrom out of the deal entirely, or replace him with another six figure depth D. Getting Soderstrom back is useful, but not the key component of the deal.

The main component for the Senators is moving out cap with only LTIR cap coming back.

The main component of the deal for Arziona is that it is 2.25M in money out, and 2.00M in money in. With the context being the 2.25M is to pay players not to play, while the 2M gives them a roster player. Additionally, since Brannstrom almost certainly makes their NHL roster, it's really only 1.25M+ in, because that means someone on a 2-way contract of 775k or more gets sent down to the AHL as Brannstrom takes their spot. So that's nearly a million in real money savings and they get a bottom pairing D/PP QB with some slight upside.

A more ideal trade for Ottawa would be Brannstrom somewhere for the best possible non-cap asset (even if that is only "future considerations"), but I don't think a team would take him at 2M. There just isn't much cap to go around right now.