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budgeteam

couldnt afford 2nd t
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Sep. 26, 2021
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Ottawa Senators
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Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 15, 2021 at 1:33 p.m.
Forum: NHL SigningsOct. 15, 2021 at 9:40 a.m.
Forum: NHL SigningsOct. 15, 2021 at 9:30 a.m.
Brady Tkachuk is not overpaid.

He would be overpaid if 31 other teams signed him to this contract. His value to the Senators exceeds his on ice contributions. He is their most popular player with a jaded fan base. The 'high compete' style of the rebuild has been built around him. He also is the most important voice in the room. Look at the player reactions to Brady committing long term.

At the end of the day, he got a million or so more per season than he should have based on comparable contracts. The thing is, none of the comparable contracts were positioned like he was in terms of their importance to their franchises.

If he was genuinely set on a bridge deal, Dorion did great work to get 7 years while only giving up a NMC and some additional dollars above the 8 million per that he originally was offered. This will be a defining contract for Dorion as a GM. The Tkachuk/Oster combo has a reputation for being one of the hardest to deal with. I did not think the Senators would get 7 years.

There is a reason why if you poll fans who follow the Senators closely, and if you poll fans who don't, the results will be different. People are giving the right answers to the wrong question so to speak. Yes, this is a bad contract based on the expected on ice contributions of Brady Tkachuk, no this is not a bad contract based on the level of overall value Brady Tkachuk brings to the Senators franchise. There is a reason that this is being characterized locally as one of the most important Senators signings of all time.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 26, 2021 at 12:29 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Tkachuk is still under Sens NHL control for four years. So likely a bridge will be signed whether it is one, two or three years. Don't know why you say the Sens can't do it. It seems to be the way how good RFAs are structuring their contracts, to be UFAs as soon as possible. A bridge deal certainly doesn't signal death for Ottawa. If Brady leaves after four more years, the Sens just fill that roster position with the cap they have with his departure......like teams have been doing for years when a UFA departs.</div></div>

RFA bridge deals are common, but they are usually prompted by the cap ceiling. They aren't usually prompted by spending limitations of a team. The Senators operate under a different dynamic than almost every other NHL team. They presumably have a very difficult owner, and despite the early FYOUS press release, he has since publicly pledged to not spend to the cap, and instead spend to the mid-range of the cap. This is going to handcuff them big time going forward.

A bridge deal does signal death, because when Brady is one arbitration session away from UFA status, he will have more leverage than he has now, not less. If they cannot do signing bonuses or a NMC now, it isn't reasonable to expect him to move off of those 3 years from now when he can take a 1 year arbitration ruling or sign his qualifying offer and head right to unrestricted free agency without giving Ottawa a single UFA year.

Josh Norris is one of their most important young players and will be positioned as their 1C this season. He has the same representation as Brady Tkachuk. That is another reason why the Senators cannot cave on Tkachuk. The Senators need to set boundaries about what they are willing to do with these non-arbitration RFAs.

Tkachuk will not start the season, and they will eventually compromise with something like a 5 year deal. The only leverage the Senators have against Tkachuk is that the longer he sits out, the more money he loses. While I think Matthew Tkachuk's comments about Brady being less aggressive than him and his father were calculated and deliberate. If there is any truth to the comments, having to sit out and watch the team lose their (slim) chance at playoffs might further convince Tkachuk to bury things and sign. Obviously, the Senators have to walk a fine line, because they cannot be so aggressive that they completely alienate Tkachuk - but they cannot sign a bridge deal.

The Senators are painted into a corner here. I don't remember a time when an RFA had as much leverage as Tkachuk has relative to the actual on ice value of the player. The Senators can't bridge him. They can't trade him (unless the return is something ridiculous like a 1 for 1 for a bigger young star). He is their most popular player with the fans. The team has a major divide with the local fan base. He seems to be the most important leader in the room.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 26, 2021 at 12:45 a.m.
Forum: NHL TradesSep. 26, 2021 at 12:33 a.m.
The Senators need to save cash for performance bonuses and an eventual Tkachuk signing.

They have been after a top 6 forward all summer, but I assume any deal was contingent on another team taking Tierney and his 4.2M salary (3.5M AAV) to help offset any salary coming in.

I highly doubt Sanford is their top choice for a top 6 forward. I think they had to hit the cap floor, while spending as little as possible. They also needed to add a forward they felt could play in their top 6, because Tkachuk won't be signed anytime soon, and they will start the season without him. This means, they couldn't make a move to add an insured LTIR contract. They needed an actual player.

Whether coincidental or not, Sanford gets them right above the lower limit of the cap. This will require the Senators being a bit flexible with their 13th F &amp; 8th D, but they can mostly ice the same roster they were expected to ice and now be cap compliant. I assume they will sign Ennis to a SPC at 1M, which will give them some additional flexibility. With how close they are to the cap floor, even a five figure difference in an AAV change the combination of players they can add to their roster.

Even if I am wrong about their budget, and they do make further additions, adding Sanford at least removes the additional leverage other teams in trade talks or Tkachuk have with the Senators needing to make a move to hit the cap floor.

As far as Brown goes, it doesn't matter if he becomes a top 6 forward. Sometimes the relationship between a team and a player deteriorates to the point where it is over. That was clearly the case here. There have been rumblings for the last year or so that one or both sides are unhappy. Brown clearly had very little trade value. He also is no longer waiver exempt. There was a reasonable chance that without a trade, the Senators were going to place him on waivers. He is super skilled, but cannot stay healthy, and has questionable drive. Sanford is what he is at this point, but there is that distant chance that the younger Brown could become a real good player for St.Louis.

Sanford is unlikely to be extended in Ottawa because of the long term outlook of their contracts and budgets. I can imagine at the trade deadline when the Senators trade Sanford as a rental, that they will recoup whatever pick they would have gotten for Brown this summer. Assuming the offers for Brown were bad, the Senators made the right move.

This is probably the definition of a win/win trade, but long term there is way more upside for St.Louis.