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budgeteam
couldnt afford 2nd t
Member Since
Sep. 26, 2021
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Ottawa Senators
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Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 27, 2023 at 11:32 p.m.
Thread:
Ottawa Senators signed Vladimir Tarasenko (1 Year / $5,000,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CSStrowbridge</b></div><div>And they still don't have a backup goalie.</div></div>
Forsberg is the backup goalie just the other teams have a special agreement not to shoot the puck anywhere near his knees.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 27, 2023 at 11:32 p.m.
Thread:
Ottawa Senators signed Vladimir Tarasenko (1 Year / $5,000,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>Considering they could have just signed DeBrincat whose younger and better, not so sure about this. Also have to wonder what this means for Pinto.
As for the player himself, this feels a little high. He's got injury issues, but when he's in the lineup he's great. 50 points in 69 games. I don't think he's the goal scorer he used to be with just 18 goals last year. Really confused as to why they didn't just re-sign Cat.</div></div>
They only could have signed Debrincat to a 1 year deal. At the absolute cheapest, that would have come in at roughly 3M more than this signing. They also would have lost out on a 1st round pick. He wasn't signing long term, and they could not fit him in long term anyways. Your post is comparing apples to oranges.
What would you rather take? 1 year of Debrincat+750k replacement tweener (roughly 8.5M in cap space between them) or 1 year of Tarasenko+Kubalik+1st Round pick and still have another 1M+ in cap space?
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 26, 2023 at 10:27 a.m.
Thread:
Carolina Hurricanes signed Sebastian Aho (8 Years / $9,750,000 AAV)
The offer sheet from Montreal ironically helped Carolina in the long run. The Hurricanes were refusing to budge from an 8 year deal when Montreal signed Ago at 5. Had Aho signed for 8, he would not have been that much cheaper than what he got at 5, but his contract would have expired 3 years later. 3 years from now, with the cap projected to increase, Aho might be a 12-14 million dollar player. Who knows.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Jul. 17, 2023 at 9:46 a.m.
Thread:
Pageau 3M 4 Sokolovs RFA rights
Pageau is still a serviceable player, but both his cap hit and term make him a negative value asset in this current environment where cap is king. Some comparable contracts and trades to think about.
-Johansen @ 4M x 2 to Colorado for nothing.
-Duchene bought out, signed for 3M x 1.
Pageau's contract at 3M is worse than both of those because of the 3 years of term for a near 31 year old player who has played a very hard style for many years. He would likely clear waivers if placed on it. I also do not think many teams would line up to take him at 3x3. 3x1? Maybe. Not with 3 years of term. Ottawa has previous ties to the player, and the GM is on the chopping block so he is less likely to care about the implications of how Pageau will play in year 2 or 3. He only cares about making it to the playoffs this year.
Let's assume Ottawa misses out on Tarasenko. This gives Ottawa additional bottom 6 depth down the middle. Norris missed an entire season with a shoulder injury, and was hurt the season before that. So this is a bit of insurance if Ottawa has to roll Pinto as the 2C again. This obviously comes at the expense of taking on the huge risk of Pageau's remaining term, but given that Dorion is likely out as GM after this season, I doubt he would blink at that.
For the Islanders, this trade is about cap space. This frees up room to bring back Parise and sign Wahlstrom (since they would send players down in incidental moves to free up a 775k+). And/or they could also use the additional space to bank cap going into the trade deadline.
Sokolov is a throw in instead of a late pick. He has had a solid pro career in Belleville but is a tweener when it comes to making the NHL. He is a big body who can score, but very much a project due to his skating. He is no longer waiver exempt, which means if he doesn't make the Senators NHL roster this year, he might be lost for nothing. Also, he recently changed agents and is still an RFA despite the fact that he has little NHL experience. That points to there being some sort of disagreement between Sokolov and the Senators organization. Including him as the asset would give him a fresh start, and it would give the Islanders a possible fringe NHLer who can play for them on a cheap contract instead of a 4th-7th round pick in 2032.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 16, 2023 at 12:38 p.m.
Thread:
Tampa Bay Lightning signed Tanner Jeannot (2 Years / $2,665,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rolfadinho</b></div><div>Wow… if something happens to Vasy, Tampa will be stuck with a bunch of bad contracts and a non-playoff team. Yikes. They were in better hands with Yzerman around.</div></div>
They already know that their window is closing, that is the exact reason why they make a trade like this one or the Hagel trade, or sign a luxury top 9 forward like Nick Paul to a 7 year contract to keep the AAV down when teams would usually be worried about the second half of that kind of deal.
Improving their chances at a cup over the next 1-2 years is worth way more to Tampa than having more prospects in the system 3-7 years from now. A big chunk of their core is going to exit their prime or continue their decline over the next few years. Even a player like Point, who in my mind I still see as a young spry up and comer is 27.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 16, 2023 at 12:33 p.m.
Thread:
Tampa Bay Lightning signed Tanner Jeannot (2 Years / $2,665,000 AAV)
The picks aren't worth as much as people think. They are either years away, or picks near the end of the round. The entire package probably wouldn't have even gotten Nashville into the 1st round of the 2023 draft in a trade up.
There is a very small possibility that Tampa could start their decline at the right time, and Nashville could end up with a high pick in 2026. With that said, I am sure Nashville would have rather received a 2023 1st than gambled on the possibility that they might get a slightly better prospect who won't play for them for 5-6 seasons instead of one who might play in 2-3.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Jul. 16, 2023 at 12:29 p.m.
Thread:
(NSH/TBL) - Jeannot for Foote, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
There was sticker shock with this trade due to the quantity of picks. If Nashville put out a memo that they would trade all those picks in a package deal for a 2023 1st, I don't think anyone would take them up on it. The 3rd/4th/5th are all at the end of the round. The 1st is protected so it is anywhere from 2-3 years away. The 2nd is a year away and is probably also going to be at the end of the round.
The above is the reason why Tampa had to give up such a strange package. Nashville was probably asking for something like a 2023 1st, and both sides had to get creative. Whether it was the wrong player to go after or not, the picks aren't nearly the value people made them out to be. If Tampa traded a late 1st for Jeannot, people wouldn't care nearly as much despite a late 2023 1st arguably being more valuable than this entire package.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Jul. 11, 2023 at 11:37 a.m.
Thread:
(OTT/DET) - DeBrincat for Kubalik, Sebrango, 2024 4th (DET), 2024 1st (DET)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jr400</b></div><div>Dorion should have known better than to think Debrincat’s value as an unsigned RFA would be similar to what it was with a year left on his contract last summer. I think he acquired him knowing that he <em>could</em> be a 1-year rental, but he figured the difference between what he paid to get him and what he thought he could get for his RFA rights was worth gambling on the chance to extend him. I think he was also going all in on trying to make the playoffs last season. I believe he knew what he was doing; it just didn't work out.</div></div>
People need to evaluate the position Dorion and the franchise was in. They were preparing for a sale. They were a few years removed from 4000k-5000k fans in the stands. They needed to drum up excitement as an investment in making the team look as appealing as possible to a prospective buyer. Dorion also was under pressure to make the playoffs and show some proof of concept for his rebuild.
I doubt he expected to recoup a top 10 pick, but if Dorion got the 17th overall, and a couple 2nds or 3rds, I would call that close enough for it to have been worth it when you consider the possible off ice reasons for acquiring a big star. At that point, he would have rented him for whatever you perceive the difference as between a top 20 pick in 2023 and a top 10 pick in 2022.
There are two issues with the pick he got back. First, it's protected multiple times over and the draft position for the pick will be determined by the performance of a consistently good team. The second issue is that the Senators could potentially have to wait until 2025 to use the pick. I suspect there is a reasonable chance that the pick will be traded before then. If the Senators are pushing at the deadline, it doesn't help Dorion to hold on to a pick for his possible successor to use - What helps him is to acquire a rental who can help the Sens push for a deep playoff run.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Jul. 10, 2023 at 10:44 a.m.
Thread:
(OTT/DET) - DeBrincat for Kubalik, Sebrango, 2024 4th (DET), 2024 1st (DET)
It's roughly what I expected, but it is still disappointing. I can't imagine what Dorion would have recieved without an extension. He probably would have pivoted to a hockey trade somewhere else.
The best realistic scenario for Ottawa is that 1st ends up in the 11th-16th wheel house via both Detroit and Boston missing the playoffs. Otherwise, if Boston continues to dominate, it's more likely to be a pick near the end of the round. Although, I'm not even sure that the Senators will keep that first. They could trade it in season for a rental as they clearly need to make the playoffs.
You have to account for the 8M in cap space opened up. If the Senators sign Tarasenko to a short term contract, that makes the return a bit easier to swallow.
Yzerman did a great job exercising his leverage with both the player and the team.
Dorion should have never acquired Debrincat. I suspect he acquired him knowing he would be a 1 year rental, and he thought he could recoup similar value flipping his RFA rights.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Jul. 9, 2023 at 5:01 p.m.
Thread:
Ottawa cant sign AD and nobody else wants him
Someone would take Debrincat on a 1 year deal but it would probably end up being a hockey trade instead of a futures based trade, since Debrincat is probably worth like a 2nd round pick on a 1 year deal in this terrible trade market.
Washington has Kuznetsov and Wilson. They have shown interest in Debrincat. Kuznetsov likely requires retention, and he might have Ottawa on his no trade list.
There is also the political POV. If Debrincat will not sign long term, Ottawa is unlikely to move him to Detroit. How does it look in January if Debrincat and the Red Wings come to terms on a deal? It then looks like Yzerman bamboozled Dorion by faking an inability to sign Debrincat, only to acquire him for nothing and sign him long term regardless.
If there is any truth to the rumors of Ottawa having Tarasenko ready to sign, Dorion likely has a hockey trade in his back pocket as a fallback if the DET/NYI long term extensions do not materialize. One that frees up cap space to sign Tarasenko and brings in a player of appropriate star power (on/off the ice) so that the fans can accept the return. It won't be a comparable player, but if he turns around and gets Tom Wilson and the cap space for Tarasenko, he can easily justify Ottawa being a better team next year, even if it is atrocious asset management.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Jul. 9, 2023 at 4:53 p.m.
Thread:
Ottawa amp Detroit
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aedoran</b></div><div>Welcome to CapFriendly. The comments can get pretty vicious best not to take them personally. Every new user over values their favorite teams players at first. Read as many ACGM's with the comments and you'll get the hang of it in no time.</div></div>
They should rename the site to capUNfriendly!
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Jul. 9, 2023 at 4:52 p.m.
Thread:
Debrincat to NYI Karlsson to Sens
There are too many moving parts.
Not to mention, Ottawa doesn't need Karlsson. They arguably have 3 possible top pairing defensemen in Chabot, Sanderson, and Chychrun. Some people will raise an eye at Sanderson, but he's already close to that #2-3 wheel house. I suspect when he signs his 8x8 (or so) type deal this summer, more people will notice.
The only trade that makes sense for Karlsson is Chabot out, Karlsson in. Both from a cap POV, and a team makeup POV. If Chabot is out, Joseph might as well be in the trade too, since the primary reason to keep Joseph is synergy in the room with Chabot. Something like Karlsson at 8.5-9.0 and a 3rd liner with a more tolerable contract for Chabot and Joseph, with San Jose keeping Joseph and Chabot going to a third team for a 1st++ (which San Jose presumably cannot get for Karlsson at their preferred level of retention).
Sens still trade Debrincat elsewhere, but I don't think that would play in here since Chabot should be worth enough to get Karlsson. I don't think Karlsson is going to go for a haul.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Jul. 7, 2023 at 1:29 p.m.
Thread:
Kuznetsov to SEA
Kuznetsov with retention for a minimal asset. That is probably the trade. I'm sure if Washington could move him for Wennberg (lower cap hit, less term) let alone Wennberg and assets, they would have done so.
In all likelihood, nobody wants him with his contract. Washington does not want to buy him out and retain. He is still a good player, but so is Duchene, so R. Smith, etc. That is then reality of the market under then current flat cap.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Jul. 7, 2023 at 6:44 a.m.
Thread:
Return of EK65
Arizona won't take Labanc, because he makes 6M in real cash. Any team would want a good asset to take him.
San Jose won't retain half. They won't want Debrincat, he doesn't fit their time line. Debrincat won't sign there.
Send Debrincat to DET or NYi for 1st++, send those assets to San Jose with Zub. San Jose can flip Zub down the road for at least two 2nds.
With that said, I think if Karlsson comes back, it has to be Chabot out, not Zub. Chabot and Karlsson play similar roles. It also makes it close to cap in/cap out with what San Jose is willing to retain.
There would also need to be a third team because Chabot won't want to play for another rebuilding team after wasting his entire prime on one so far. He doesn't have full trade protections but teams generally don't like to acquire star players with term who will be a disruption.
It is difficult to put a value to Chabot because of how up and down values are due to the salary cap, but I would suspect he garners a similar or better return than Karlsson will. From that standpoint, I could see Chabot 1 for 1 for Karlsson with retention that brings him into the 8.XXM range, and then San Jose flips Chabot.
Of course, Ottawa would not trade Chabot in real life, but just spit balling what would make sense if they were intent on moving Karlsson.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Jul. 7, 2023 at 6:14 a.m.
Thread:
What do you think
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JoeROFLCOPTER</b></div><div>Dumping Zadina costs a 2nd? What?</div></div>
If his contract wasn't terminated, his cap/salary/term is in line with contracts that have cost a 2nd to dump.
The Wings shopped him all off season and there was no interest, he also cleared waivers.
There will be interest in him as a free agent because he won't be tied to that cap/term/salary. That doesn't mean at his previous contract he would not cost an asset to dump. A 2nd is a very fair estimate.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Jul. 5, 2023 at 3:11 p.m.
Thread:
Uh Islanders Debrincat I guess
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Element23VM</b></div><div>Islanders rumoured in on this guy...
They'd give Debrincat one year at 5M and then sign an extension at like 8.5/y?
I don't really have a clue, nor do I really know what would come off the Islanders' roster outside of him, Lee, or Nelson... Palmieri makes the most sense but he's got no move...</div></div>
Debrincat is not signing 1 year 5M. If the Islanders need Debrincat at that salary, they would need to bring in a third team to retain. Debrincat will likely cost somewhere in the 8M range to settle with on a 1 year contract. The floor for his arbitration settlement is 7.65M, so he is not going to accept less than that, and he has no reason to settle before arbitration for the floor. A fair guess might be somewhere in the half way point between 7.65M and his salary last year, which was 9.00M. That would be 8.325M.
The Sens have been linked to Pageau, not Palmieri. Still, I doubt they would take Pageau without retention. Look at what it took to move Johansen, and also what Duchene signed for. Pageau has a lot of term left and is getting older. Replace Palmieri with Pageau and add in retained salary.
I don't know anything about Dufour. The Senators aren't going to get a top prospect in a deal for Debrincat. I would suspect a 1st round pick, and then your typical B prospect or young NHLer who might be worth a 2nd round or 3rd round pick.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Jul. 5, 2023 at 3:03 p.m.
Thread:
Debrincat to Detroit
-We will assume no team wants to meet Debrincat's supposed 8 x 8.8M ask.
-Debrincat goes to Detroit on a 1 year contract. Not an 8 year contract.
-Detroit already knows they are an ideal destination for Debrincat. This gives them a chance to audition him in their system before committing long term.
-Detroit can likely flip Debrincat for a similar draft pick at the trade deadline if it doesn't work out.
-Ottawa isn't getting a huge return for Debrincat at this point. Even this is pushing it.
-Ottawa can then have enough cap space to sign Tarasenko at 6.XXM to replace Debrincat internally, sign Pinto to a cheap 1-2 year bridge deal, and fill out a 21 skater roster.
-The Boston pick is playoff protected. Maybe with some even more restricted elements, like Ottawa gets the worse of BOS or DET 1st round pick, and if both teams miss the playoffs DET can instead choose to give Ottawa their own unprotected 2025 1st Round pick.
You can probably take Kubalik in or out of the trade. If the Senators intend to sign Tarasenko, they may not have room for him in the top 6, and while his cap hit is not large it might restrict the Senators when it comes to filling out their roster. If Kubalik is out, maybe add in third a few years down the line.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Jul. 5, 2023 at 1:06 p.m.
Thread:
I mean weve seen crazier right
This trade makes no sense for anybody involved. Although, I'm sure if Ottawa could somehow get Kucherov for that, they would take it and figure it out.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Jul. 5, 2023 at 1:04 p.m.
Thread:
Vegas interested in Murray for 1 season
I could see a team taking Murray with full retention, because the goalie market is rough. I can't see anybody taking him at his full cap hit. He is too inconsistent.
Unless Vegas intends to trade Thompson, I don't get why they need Murray. They already have two NHL goalies.
I also don't think Toronto gets assets for Murray. Probably half retained for future considerations. At best, a late pick.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Jul. 5, 2023 at 12:39 p.m.
Thread:
What do you think
Dumping Zadina costs a 2nd, so it's basically a projected late 1st for Debrincat.
I don't think Debrincat is worth much, but I'd suspect if that was the offer to move him within the division, Dorion would instead pivot and try to make a hockey trade somewhere instead of a futures based one.
I
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Jul. 5, 2023 at 12:37 p.m.
Thread:
Devils get line 2 clw
Batherson doesn't play C at the pro level. That's only in EA Sports games.
The Senators aren't trading him. He had a down 2023 season but was far and away their best forward in 2022. He is a late bloomer at every level and is now healthy compared to 2023. At his current cap hit, he is extremely valuable.
The only way the Senators would have moved him would be if they kept Debrincat long term. Which obviously isn't the case.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Jul. 5, 2023 at 12:32 p.m.
Thread:
TK Youre a SENS
Konecny has negative value at his full hit similar to Duchene and others. He is undersized with consistent time missed due to injuries.
I doubt Philadelphia wants Debrincat, but if they could get him and trick Ottawa into taking Konecny, they would do it and dump Debrincat as a rental.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 4, 2023 at 2:38 p.m.
Thread:
Ottawa Senators signed Travis Hamonic (2 Years / $1,100,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Manson</b></div><div>Fair money and term. But I don’t get the NMC.
I don’t think it will affect them that much though, relatively short and cheap deal.</div></div>
NMC is a bit weird, but if he genuinely left money on the table to get it, then it's fine. It seems like a case of a veteran who wanted the security of not moving.
The Senators do not regularly give them out. Giroux and Tkachuk are the only two current players to get one. Prior to that, Ryan got a modified one.
In a worst case scenario, he is a cheap buyout next year. Second worst case scenario is he is a healthy scratch, which burns a few 100k extra compared to a player on a 6 figure two way type deal.
This tells me Dorion has some sort of fall back plan to move Debrincat. Even this small contract doesn't fit if he stays. Obviously, with how contentious things have gotten in the media, I doubt they keep him anyways.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Jul. 4, 2023 at 6:27 a.m.
Thread:
Dorion lost all leverage Debrincat to WSH
-This is effectively Wilson for Debrincat 1 for 1. Both on 1 year contracts.
-There is no long term deal in place with either Debrincat or Wilson.
-Both teams swap players they have been attached to this off season.
The Mantha component is because Washington needs to dump cap to make Debrincat on a 1 year deal in the 7.85-9.00 range fit. They send Chicago either a 2024 3rd or a 2026 2nd to take 1/4th of Mantha's cap hit. Ottawa takes the other 1/4th. Chicago is compensated for burning a retention spot (usually worth a 4th at the TDL, but they get a bit more here for the same of leverage).
Ottawa can then sign Pinto to 2 years at 2M since he is a 10.4(c) RFA with little leverage. They have 16 plays signed and just about 10.2M before any of these moves. So adding Wilson, Mantha, and Pinto at about 8M or so gives them enough room to roll with 21+ bodies.
Ditching half of Mantha's hit and Wilson's entire hit makes it close to cap in/cap out for WSH.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Jul. 2, 2023 at 1:30 p.m.
Thread:
(MTL / TBL) - Drouin for Sergachev
Drouin has had personal issues that the Canadiens may not have been aware of when they acquired him. They may not have even been present when he was on Tampa.
While this trade was obviously a huge loss for the Canadiens, I don't think it is always fair to judge trades based on the outcome when it is a situation where the outcome is so far removed from what reality seemed to be at the time the trade was made. Another example would be Ottawa getting Norris and Stutzle for Karlsson. Norris wasn't in the first round on a lot of team lists when he was drafted, and internally was only seen as a future 3C by the Senators. No one predicted he would pace for 40 goals. The San Jose pick had upside due to the double unprotected loophole where Ottawa inherited San Jose's protection over their 2019 pick that they traded to Buffalo for Evander Kane. Still, no one thought it would be the 3rd overall pick. The most optimistic people thought that maybe San Jose would take a step back, and it could be in that 10-15 type ballpark.
A player developing psychological issues that prevent him from playing hockey well isn't something a GM is going to have a reasonable way of vetting against, unless those issues were already known about when Montreal acquired him.
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