capfriendlyaccount

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Forum: NHL SigningsJan 14 at 9:38
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>Unless they bust. I 110% get that the peak years are younger, but that's not always the case for every single player in the NHL. Backstrom is still playing at an elite level. There are also other components to this...how the team is doing. Sub Par teams like New Jersey can afford to spend $7M on Nico Hirshcer because they're banking on that contract being a good contract down the road. Has Clayton Keller with AZ earned with $7.1M yet? no. TOR has done that for Matthews/Marner/Nylander. They're cap strapped this year, but down the road they're hoping these contracts are steals. Another part is team construction down the road. WAS is a team has (who they believe is) Backstroms replacement developing in London. there will be 3 of those 5 years with an ELC as a center.</div></div>

The issue for me isn't just the peak years, it's that this is a contract that looks kind of OK based on what he is doing this second. Even if he plays up to his recent standard for all 5 seasons of the deal, it will have just been fair. Given that very very few players avoid decline from ages 33-37, it seems like a bad bet.

Now all that being said, I am talking about this purely in terms of value for the deal. I don't think this is a good value for the player. However GMs of some teams do have other considerations than making the correct "value" decision at all times. Fans, ticket sales, history are all important.

There are other things that can be nearly as valuable to a teams history as winning a championship. Ovi has a shot at the all time goals record, and he is almost certainly getting to second place. Historically speaking, keeping Ovi and Backstrom together and them retiring as caps, and sharing moments like that together have a lot of value to the franchise other than wins or losses. So I am not just bashing the decision to keep Backstrom, but I think in a vacuum where all you are concerned about is value for the cap hit, this isn't a good bet to be a good use of a cap hit. If this is the only way from getting Backstrom to test the market, I get the value in trying to make sure he and Ovi retire as Caps.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep 17, 2019 at 10:02
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>capfriendlyaccount</b></div><div>Two big offersheets? Aho and who?
The threat of an offersheet is not nearly as big as you're making it out to be. </div></div>

Okay... so I looked it up and the best I can get from reliable sources is that the Blue Jackets reportedly made their best offer to Marner's agent verbally, and never got around to typing up a contract because they believed Toronto would match it. <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/close-blue-jackets-come-offer-sheeting-mitch-marner/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/close-blue-jackets-come-offer-sheeting-mitch-marner/</a> So it could just be an agent, agenting. Like, the Marner offersheet now sounds like the girlfriend-in-Canada of offersheets.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>capfriendlyaccount</b></div><div>There's three teams right now that could actually give him a serious offersheet without needing to clear space first. That's the Sens (rebuilding) the Avs ( Rantanen) and the Jackets (could do). Then below that there's four teams that could a) conceivably make the space to offersheet him and b) be okay with giving up the picks required. The two biggest threats there would be Montreal and the Islanders. And then there's still no guarantee he would sign their offer. So any acquiring team wouldn't really be worried about him getting poached via offersheet.</div></div>

I mean, as a Caps fan, knowing that the only team to really worry about making an offersheet is the division rival your team knocked out in the first round in 2018, who may or may not have already tried to offersheet someone this summer? That's not comforting. Maybe for Montreal it is totally comforting, but I'm back to thinking the Caps would only trade for Laine if he signs at the same time, as a condition of the trade. No contract=no trade.