SalarySwishSalarySwish
Avatar

cbach_4141

Dejected Isles fan
Member Since
May 4, 2018
Favourite Team
New York Islanders
2nd Favourite Team
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forum Posts
41
Posts per Day
0.0
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 27, 2018 at 9:43 a.m.
Thread: 1st Overall Pick in 2019
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TCMonkey</b></div><div>You're welcome to think whatever you like, but the return on Karlsson is going to be a 1st rounder, a player and a prospect. There is ZERO guarantee that Ottawa's 2019 pick will be first overall. The odds are actually against it. Very strong chance it's top 10 but who the hell would give up Karlsson for the 6th overall pick in 2019; it's a horrible return.</div></div>
This is a tough deal to peg because superstar defensemen at the end of their prime aren't traded very often.

If you look at comps, the best I could find is:
28 yo Shattenkirk making $4.5M to WAS: a 1st, conditional 2nd if WAS wins the cup or resigns Shattenkirk, a prospect bottom 6er and a NP; STL also retained 39% salary. the 1st was also known at that time to be out of the lottery. Only half a season of Shattenkirk.

Let's say a full season of Karlsson negates the salary retention and improves the prospect. I would imagine something like Karlsson to Tampa for 1st, 2nd, Cirelli would be closer. Or karlsson to Dallas for 1st, 2nd, Hintz.

Bottom line is no one knows what the return will be, which is probably why a deal hasn't gotten done. I have no doubt Ottawa wants what you propose, I just don't think it's being offered. And for those Ottawa fans adding Bobby Ryan's deal into the mix, the return will be even less.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 26, 2018 at 1:33 p.m.
Thread: Lou's not done yet... (trades with DET, CBJ, NSH, TBL)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Larkinisking</b></div><div>LMFAO I just love how these so called fans, Keep thinking that Detroit needs to shed good prospects to be cap compliant. First off dude get serious Rasmussen is a #9 overall pick and you only offer us 2 garbage 4th round picks for both Franzen that doesn't cost us any thing and Rasmussen. Get real you don't know our situation? There's a good chance that Zetterberg might be done if that's the can we're fine Holland is good at manipulating the cap and he said that there will be no trades needed to be made. Pretty sure he know's our situation a whole lot better then you. This is a royal joke. And you don't know what you're talking about here.</div></div>

Current situation: not including Larkin (since he doesn’t have a contract), DET currently has 13 F, 6 D, and 2 G signed to contracts right now. That’s 21 rostered contracts (which differs from CapFriendly’s number, oddly) with projected cap space of $2,827,956.

Let’s assume DET signs Larkin to a 6 yr $6M AAV deal. Those numbers become 22 contracts and ($3,172,044) over the cap.

Detroit still needs to add a 23rd contract to fill out the roster. Let’s bring up whomever this Wade Megan guy is, at a cost of $650,000 AAV. Those numbers become 23 contracts (hooray! A full team!) and ($3,822,044) over the cap.

Detroit then finds itself close to the Chris Pronger situation outlined in this article here: <a href="http://thehockeyguys.net/timing-is-everything-maximizing-ltir-benefits/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://thehockeyguys.net/timing-is-everything-maximizing-ltir-benefits/</a>. Detroit, it seems, has one of two options:
1. Place Franzen on LTIR prior to opening day, in which case only $3,822,044 gets added to the cap upper limit. At this point, DET is EXACTLY at the cap number.
2. Do something like put Darren Helm and his $3.850M cap hit on waivers in order to become cap compliant, THEN put Franzen on LTIR after opening day for the full hit of $3,954,545 and bring Helm back. DET will be ($79.5 - $3,954,545 + $3,850,000) = $79,395,455 (or $105K under the cap).
For the sake of argument, these two options are largely a wash. However, no matter which option is chosen, any future upgrades, callups, injury replacements, etc. would be SERIOUSLY hampered against the cap number.
• If DET wanted to send down Wade Megan and call up Filip Zadina, there would need to be a corresponding roster move due to the differences in salaries ($650K - $925K).
• If someone gets hurt, they would immediately need to be put on LTIR in order to have the roster space filled. I remember LAK being in a similar situation a few years back.

I’d be interested to hear how your knowledge of LTIR and salary cap means that I “don’t know your situation” and “don’t know what I’m talking about here”. But unless you provide some evidence to the contrary, I don’t think LTIR works the way you think it does.

I admit – Holland probably would find other ways around including selling Nyquist or Howard for pennies on the dollar just to get rid of them. As I showed from recent history, a comparable strict cap dump cost the Blackhawks Teravainen.

This process would work the same even if Zetterberg is placed on LTIR as well.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 26, 2018 at 10:12 a.m.
Thread: Lou's not done yet... (trades with DET, CBJ, NSH, TBL)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Larkinisking</b></div><div>LMFAO I just love how these so called fans, Keep thinking that Detroit needs to shed good prospects to be cap compliant. First off dude get serious Rasmussen is a #9 overall pick and you only offer us 2 garbage 4th round picks for both Franzen that doesn't cost us any thing and Rasmussen. Get real you don't know our situation? There's a good chance that Zetterberg might be done if that's the can we're fine Holland is good at manipulating the cap and he said that there will be no trades needed to be made. Pretty sure he know's our situation a whole lot better then you. This is a royal joke. And you don't know what you're talking about here.</div></div>

Wow, not sure where this hostility is coming from, but ok.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 9, 2018 at 4:21 p.m.
Thread: What Montreal Should do.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Lou isn't a good GM anymore though, so I can see him doing this thinking it'll be a good old school build from the Net out thing. He did just give Leo 3 million for 4 years and picked up Martin. Those moves, combined with Lou's departure from TO in favour of Dubas tells me he just doesn't see the league in the right way anymore.</div></div>

Not sure about that. He isn't signing speed, I'll give you that... but what options were available after the Tavares saga? What options were even available BEFORE the Tavares saga?

Lou's plan isn't true contention just yet, which is your mistake in assuming. Otherwise he'd have emptied the pipeline already. He's signing guys to change the culture, which was badly needed. If you ever watched the NYI play they were incredibly soft. Look up the Burakovsky quote; see the retaliation after Marchand hit Tavares. He's making a team that is going to be tough to play against.

Not sure how an oft-injured goalie making $10M for the better part of a decade fits into that. I stand by my original post. If he were to trade for Karlsson and Faulk, then it's a revisit.