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dannibalcorpse

we miss leo k
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Feb. 24, 2018
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Forum: Armchair-GM3 hours ago
Thread: Get all the 1st rounders
I'd rather have the remaining 3x$5M on Pageau's deal than take on the 4x$5.5M left on Anderson's. I honestly wouldn't take Anderson's deal right now without a 1st coming back.

And in the whole scope of the deal, I think the Islanders come out on the short end. They basically change their 3C and 3RW from Pageau/Wahlstrom to Monahan/Anderson, which feels like a wash at best. Then the rest of the deal is swapping Harris/2nd/3rd for a 1st - that just feels like a bad use of assets. If they're going to move the 2024 1st, I'd rather it be in a deal for a legit top-4 guy like Noah Hanifin that lets them spread the minutes around a little more instead of a guy that basically pushes someone on the third pair into a 7th D role.

It's a moot point, though - they don't have the cap space to make this deal work, even if Montreal retained in full on Monahan, unless Adam Pelech is done for the season. And, again, if that' s the case I'd rather use the 2024 1st to target a top 4 LHD to replace him.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 10:49 p.m.
Thread: Goalie Shuffle Adding on D
The only big swing here is the pendulum swinging back and forth on the value disparity between these two trades.

The Calgary trade is not good for the Flames. Steeves & Timmins are 24 & 25 (well , Steeves will be 24 on Sunday) and don't look like anything more than bottom-6/third pair type of guys at this point. So it's basically a late 1st and two bodies for Hanifin - I think the Flames do better than this if they put him on the market.

Then the Sharks trade is a ton of whiplash - Samsonov has had a rough start to the year but even with that he's still put up a .905 SV% & 2.76 GAA in 96 games going back to the beginning of the 2021-22 season. In that same timeframe, Blackwood has played 65 games with an .894 SV% and 3.42 GAA. With that kind of production, I don't think the extra year is really worth that much juice - I could -MAYBE- see a world where the Leafs throw in a 3rd rounder to offset the $1.2M in savings a Samsonov/Blackwood swap would give them, but to throw in one of your top D prospects in Niemela as well is just overkill.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 8:19 p.m.
Thread: Going for it all
-Lajoie and Abruzzese are basically depth players at this point in their careers, so this trade is pretty much Tanev with full retention for a 1st and a 4th. The 4th covers the retention, but I would assume that the Flames are going to try and get more than a 1st for a guy who's a solid two-way defender and can be retained down to an affordable level.

-Wild easily pass. Maroon is scoring at a 40+ point pace on an $800K cap hit, if they want to move him they will have people lined up around the block to pay up for his production and for his 3 Cup rings. Bogosian might not be the player he once was, but he's also got a ring and is the type of playoff player GMs love. Both of them are retainable down to basically nothing, and I think that a pair of 5ths doesn't come near their value.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 8:14 p.m.
Thread: Would cost a lot but would be great if they are sellers
I know Sens management is kind of a mess right now but I can't imagine that they would turn around and move Chychrun 9 months after they acquired for him for a package that doesn't blow what they paid out of the water - keep in mind, they gave up what wound up being #12OA, plus a 2024 2nd and a 2026 2nd for him last March. Lagesson is just a warm body, so you're basically offering #28 in the same draft they gave up the #12 in plus a 2024 1st that is most likely in the same vicinity - I just don't think it would be enough of a slam dunk for the Senators to take it.

As far as the Wild trade, I think they pass. They're literally dollar in/dollar out at this point, and this trade has them sending out $1.65M in AAV while taking back $2.45M. For a team with less than $56K in cap space, you're basically taking away an entire roster spot here. Not to mention the fact that Reaves is pretty much a one note player at this stage of his career, while Maroon is providing some of that snarl while also scoring at a 40 point pace on his $800K cap hit. Easy pass for the Wild.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 8:01 p.m.
Thread: Reclamation projects
-As the Sabres fan upthread said, I don't think they move on from Krebs. I get that you probably want more out of him at this point, but he's got solid underlying numbers for a 4th liner spending most of his time with Kyle Okposo and Zemgus Girgensons. He's probably out of place as a center in the long-term, but I think Buffalo has enough rope to work with him going forward.

-I don't think the value is awful here, maybe a little light, but I don't think the Rangers move on from Kakko for anything short of an overpay. At some point the rubber has to hit the road though - his underlying numbers look great, but how much of that is from spending most of his 5v5 time with Chris Krieder and Mika Zibenajad?

-Wahlstrom needs less of a change of scenery and more of a coach who'll just say damn the torpedoes and let him be an offensive player. He has a heavy shot and has shown solid pts/60 numbers throughout his career yet he has never been given more than 4th line minutes (career TOI of 12:02 with a peak of 12:23 in the bubble season - not coincidentally, his best season to date.) He's spent most of his 5v5 time this year with JG Pageau and Anders Lee, so it's not like he's really being given the best chance to succeed.

Hell, maybe they *should* trade him. I'd want to focus maybe more on defensive depth than a guy like Ylonen, who's not much different than a dozen guys that the Isles have in the org already (Fasching, Gauthier, Kuhlman, Thompson, Koivula, MacLean, I can go on and on and on.) The lack of D depth has been exposed recently - they have a solid top 6 but one guy going down really weakens them and two guys going down means Grant Hutton is getting legitimate NHL minutes. If I was working on that type of trade with the Habs, I would maybe keep the draft pick the same but sub in a guy like Mattias Norlinder or Gustav Lindstrom instead.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 12:16 a.m.
Thread: Jets dream deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jets12Kozy</b></div><div>Salo is shutting down top lines in the SHL at 19 years old.</div></div>

Change "SHL" to "Liiga" and you're describing Robin Salo, who was drafted #46 after his age-19 season. He's played 31 NHL games to date, and it's been almost a full calendar year since his last appearance.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jets12Kozy</b></div><div>Lucuis has looked filthy everywhere hes played <strong>barring injury</strong>.</div></div>

Emphasis mine. Lucius is back on the ice now, but for how long? I don't doubt the talent, but he's had an inauspicious start to his professional career.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jets12Kozy</b></div><div>A "proven commodity" on pace for 0 goals and 11 assists this season, Boqvist was a dime per dozen mobile Dman putting up ok numbers on the pp.</div></div>

What Boqvist is doing now is hardly relevant to how his value was perceived at the time of the trade. When he was traded, he was 21 years old and had already been given playoff minutes and been trusted to be the PP QB on a team that still had Duncan Keith. Acting like he wasn't a desirable trade chip after the 2020-21 season because he's struggling in the 2023-24 season is revisionist history.

I also stressed the proven commodity idea because the Islanders have *not* proven all that well at developing mid &amp; lower-tier prospects. Going back to 2016 (so all of Lou's drafts + the 2 years before that, since those were all U21s that the Lamoriello regime inherited &amp; developed), the Islanders have had a grand total of 4 players drafted after the 2nd round (out of a potential 33) actually appear in the NHL. And even though they've had 9 of their 13 1st+2nd rounders get NHL time in that span, the general consensus is that any player not named Noah Dobson has been a bit of a letdown. This is why, if I'm entertaining the thought of trading the only draft success story this team has had since Mat Barzal, I would be looking for something more concrete than guys with red flags like Lucius and Salomonsson.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 11:02 p.m.
Thread: Jets dream deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jets12Kozy</b></div><div>You are seemingly undervaluing Salomonsson and Lucuis incredibly while overvaluing Boqvist an equal amount</div></div>

Salomonsson is a boom-or-bust prospect - those type of players tend to bust more often once they get into the Islanders developmental system, so I personally wouldn't put a ton of value on a player like that. Lucius' value is hampered by his inability to stay healthy (he already missed nearly a month of time this season after playing a total of 18 games last year.)

I don't think it's overrating Boqvist to say that, in a trade, a 21-year-old who has had success at the NHL level is going to be more valuable than a 20-year-old with 24 AHL games to his name or a 19-year-old who hasn't even left Europe yet. It's not saying that Salomonsson or Lucius are bums, or saying that Boqvist is the next Bobby Orr, it's simply saying that one's a proven commodity while the others are still just potential and nothing more. If I'm trading a blue-chip player like Dobson, I want something more concrete coming back than two prospects with their own question marks.

And, again, that's before we even get to the $6M anchor named Nate Schmidt that's somehow included in this trade.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 10:50 p.m.
Thread: Would this fly
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SomeonesOffended</b></div><div>Probably because his extension costs so much more than what Dobson makes right now?</div></div>

There are ways they can make the money work. To me, though, the big reason why it wouldn't work is that there's -nothing- behind their current guys on the RHD depth chart. Trading Dobson means that you push Ryan Pulock &amp; Scott Mayfield to RD1/RD2, which, while not catastrophic, is not necessarily ideal. The catastrophic part comes at RD3 - next man up on that depth chart right now is Grant Hutton, and there's really not enough organizational depth behind him either.

A Dobson - Nylander swap fixes one hole (the need for a scoring winger) by opening up a bigger hole elsewhere. That's why I think there's no way that Dobson would be involved in any sort of trade at this point.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 10:35 p.m.
Thread: Jets dream deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jets12Kozy</b></div><div>Hmmm this is better than the Jones return</div></div>

Is it, thought?

When they traded Seth Jones, the Jackets wound up swapping #32 &amp; #173 in the 2021 draft for #12 &amp; #44, while also getting a 2022 1st rounder and Adam Boqvist, who was 21 at the time and in the last year of his ELC, and had put up 16 points in 35 GP during the bubble season (a 37 point pace.)

This package does have a future 1st rounder included in it, but I don't think the rest of the package lines up with the value the Jackets got for Jones. Chisholm &amp; Salomonsson aren't really adding much value, and I would say that an RHD with success at the NHL level like Boqvist would be more valuable than a forward with 23 AHL games under his belt like Lucius. And, personally, I think the 2nd rounder is cancelled out by the fact that Schmidt has an another year left on his deal at that $5.95M cap hit and already looks pretty washed.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 4:23 p.m.
Thread: Jake Allen Trade Comps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GreatWhiteNorth</b></div><div>Did you ask either GM if that’s why the 3rd was included? .. didn’t think so. You don’t know that for sure.

Montreal had also acquired DeSmith thus making it 4 goalies in their system that needed NHL time. So you could argue that they shoulda gave up a pick to clear DeSmith but they didn’t.

Maybe Buffalo considers Jordan Greenway and a 4th for Jake Allen which would be compared to the DeSmith deal fairly well.</div></div>

It wasn't exactly an industry secret that Vancouver needed cap room, badly, and that Pearson was a threat to be waived at the end of camp if he stayed in Vancouver - Thomas Drance of the Athletic had reported that , more or less verbatim. You don't need to have to speak to the GMs to see something so clearly obvious.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 4:15 p.m.
Thread: Jake Allen Trade Comps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ht42</b></div><div>I belive that Allen can be traded easily for a 3rd round pick with a 50% retention.</div></div>

It's a copycat league, and any GM in the league is going to want to have a recent trade to point at to justify their asking price. I just don't think there's anything out there that justifies someone giving up a 3rd rounder to take 2x$1.9M of Jake Allen on board.

Keep in mind that since the beginning of last season Jake Allen has played in 52 games with an .893 SV% and 3.59 GAA, while having a quality start less than half the time he's gone out there, when you look at these recent trades involving a team paying a 3rd rounder or more for a goalie:

-Casey DeSmith to VAN for Tanner Pearson &amp; a 3rd: DeSmith had 1x$1.8M left on his deal when this trade was made, and in the two seasons prior to the trade had a .908 SV% and 3.01 GAA in 64 appearances. I don't think anyone here would argue that the draft pick cost was juiced by the fact that the Canucks sent back Pearson's 1x$3.25M deal, though.

-Erik Portillo's signing rights to LA for a 3rd: Buffalo picked Portillo in the 3rd round in 2019 and would have lost him this past summer since he was unlikely to sign there. Not a good comp for Allen.

-CBJ gets Jonathan Quick/1st/3rd for Joonas Korpisalo and Vladislav Gavrikov: Hard to parcel out exactly what value Korpisalo added to this deal - he was performing better than Quick was last season, and had a better cap hit, but I'd argue the main get for the Kings as Gavrikov. Hard to make a direct comp to a potential Allen trade here.

-Vitek Vanecek's RFA rights and #46OA for #37OA &amp; #70OA: Vanecek was 26 years old and had put up a .908 SV% with a 2.67 GAA over 79 games in Washington before the trade and was seen as on the upswing of his career at the time of the trade. Jersey gave up a 3rd rounder and moved back from 37 to 46 in this trade, which value-wise works out to an early 4th rounder.

-Ville Husso's RFA rights to Detroit for #73OA: Another 26 year old goalie traded in his RFA years - Husso had put up a .912 SV% with a 2.67 GAA over 57 games in St. Louis before the Wings traded for him.

-Alex Georgiev's RFA rights to Colorado for a 3rd/3rd/5th package: Georgiev was a year younger than Vanecek &amp; Husso and had a .901 SV% and 2.85 GAA over 52 games with the Rangers the two years before the trade.

-Scott Wedgewood to DAL for a 3rd: Back to a veteran goalie, at least - though Wedgewood was only making $825K at the time of the trade and, going back to the start of the prior season, had put up a .906 SV% and 3.14 GAA in 45 games split between the Coyotes and Devils.

-Daniel Vladar to CGY for a 3rd: The Flames paid up for potential here, as Vladar only had 5 NHL regular season games under his belt at this point and hadn't looked good - but he had pushed a .930 SV% in the AHL the prior two seasons.

That brings us back to the beginning of the 2021 offseason - I think that's enough recent history to show that every goalie traded straight up for a 3rd was significantly younger, cheaper, or better than Allen has been for the Habs.

If you have any trade comps that you think can back that up tho, I'm willing to hear them out.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 3:18 p.m.
Thread: Future looking bright
A 1st and 3 2nds is not nearly enough for Dobson based on how he's playing. As said above, he's still young enough to be a big part of the next iteration of the Islanders if they decided to do a small teardown of the current roster (if that's even really possible.)

It would have to be a 1st and someone like Conor Geekie to get him off the Island. There's minimal depth behind him on both the RD depth chart (after Ryan Pulock &amp; Scott Mayfield, the next man up would be Grant Hutton) and the PP (Pulock &amp; Mayfield are not PP1 caliber, neither is Adam Pelech, Alex Romanov, Mike Reilly, Sebastian Aho, or anyone else currently on the Island or in Bridgeport.) There are a couple of decent options that would be available in UFA next summer, but none with the youth &amp; relatively lower price tag that Dobson currently has.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 3:12 p.m.
Thread: Crowdsourcing
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Joblow</b></div><div>I like Pageau but Mtl doesn’t want the 3rd contract season. I think that they would move Anderson instead. Lou have been linked many time to Anderson.</div></div>

setting aside the fact that you can make a pretty strong case that Josh Anderson has been one of the worst forwards in the league this season,

the reason that the Islanders would be moving Pageau is because of his term + his cap hit. in this trade, I honestly think Pageau is the better player but it's either a 1-for-1 or the islanders add slightly to make up for the fact that JGP is older, has more term, and has a $5M cap hit vs Dvorak's $4.45M.

Josh Anderson's deal has one more year than Pageau's and is actually more expensive, and he plays wing as opposed to center. so right off the bat, there would be zero sense on the NY side in a Pageau/Anderson swap. then when you add in the fact that he would literally be the 12th or 13th best forward on the team? there's no world I can see that type of trade happening without the Habs having to send back a significant asset with Anderson.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat. at 12:54 p.m.
Thread: Harder to play against
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JaredOfLondon</b></div><div>Clutterbuck is very easy to play against because he is washed as hell. Absolute boat anchor</div></div>

Clutterbuck's value is always difficult to pin down because his line has always been the "bend don't break"-iest of the Islanders forward group. They give up a ton of shots but usually limit them to low-danger areas, which means his 5v5 stats are always weird, and this year is no different:

291:10 TOI
153 CF : 259 CA (37.14 CF%)
78 SF : 115 SA (40.4 SF%)
37 HDCF : 31 HDCA (54.4 HDCF%)
9 GF : 8 GA (52.9 GF%)

There's some PDO luck/small sample size noise in there, but this is what his line always does. That being said, I don't think he's worth a 4th - but I also don't think he moves at all unless he asks Lou to move him.