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dannibalcorpse
we miss leo k
Member Since
Feb. 24, 2018
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
NHL Trades
Mar. 7 at 10:12 p.m.
Thread:
(SJS/TBL) - Duclair, 2025 7th (SJS) for Thompson, 2024 3rd (TBL)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mondo</b></div><div>Tampa gets a decent middle six winger.
San Jose gets a disbarred lawyer will who sue video game developers.
Even trade.</div></div>
DEEEEP cut
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 7 at 10:01 p.m.
Thread:
Calgary
said it in the your other Calgary thread last night: Dillon Dube is not a tradable asset at this time. Just ignore him if you're doing a Calgary ACGM.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 7 at 9:59 p.m.
Thread:
Trade Up at Draft
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dubcity</b></div><div>I was asking for examples, Rebuilding team trading down in 1st round... And go</div></div>
2022: Sharks trade out of #11OA and get back #27OA, #34OA, & #45OA
2021: Chicago trades #12OA, #44OA, Adam Boqvist, & a future 1st for #32OA, #173OA, & Seth Jones
2021: Dallas trades #15OA to get back #23OA, #48OA, & #138OA
2019: Philly trades #11OA to get back #14OA & #45OA
2018: Ottawa trades #22OA to get back #26OA & #48OA
2016: NJ trades #11OA to get back #12OA & #80OA
6 times in the last 8 drafts - the only years it didn't happen were last year (stacked top 10), 2020 (COVID ruined scouting), and 2017 (Vegas expansion draft chaos). It happens quite often, and smart GMs will take advantage of another team's desperation to stockpile more assets - both at the deadline and on the draft floor.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 7 at 6:40 p.m.
Thread:
Trade Up at Draft
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dubcity</b></div><div>Exactly this. How many rebuilding teams have traded down?</div></div>
Happens quite often, usually with later lottery picks (#11-16). The first 10 picks have a huge amount of predictive value so they usually don't get moved, but once you get past that, the difference in expected value between picks is smaller and easier to move out of.
In this trade, if I'm the Flames and I don't see a player I'm absolutely in love with at my pick, I would 100% take it. Calgary's pick right now is #11OA, which per Dom@theAthletic's draft pick chart, has an expected GSVA value of 5.7. Philly's pick is at #17OA(4.5) right now and the Leafs' is at #24OA(3.5) - meaning the Flames would be bringing in 8.0 future GSVA and netting 2.3 excess by making that move, and getting an extra lottery ticket in the 5th round to boot.
A team in a full rebuild should be all about amassing as many assets as possible, and this trade would do that. Slam dunk for Calgary to make that deal here.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 7 at 6:25 p.m.
Thread:
TDL Time
Don't forget that the whole fight that led to Tony D's exile from the Rangers was started after Barzal undressed DeAngelo and scored on Georgiev. Don't think he'd fit in well in this locker room.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 7 at 6:21 p.m.
Thread:
In with new out with old
Ottawa says no before you even finish telling them what you expect in return for Pageau & Wahlstrom.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Claesson4Norris</b></div><div>Isles fans are a plague</div></div>
at least we try to police our own when they get out of line here
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 7 at 12:41 a.m.
Thread:
Trade Up at Draft
Echoing that here, but Risto is not an asset the Isles would be targeting with the RHD depth chart they currently have and while moving Pageau is helpful, I don't think they would move him at a loss the way the got rid of Josh Bailey last summer.
Difference between a pick in the 28-32 range and the 12-16 range is equivalent to an early 2nd rounder (#36-40 range). So, assuming that the picks were lined up the way they are today, you would have to give up Florida's 1st and CBJ's 2nd to move up to the Isles 1st. I would consider dropping that 2nd round pick and doing JGP/Isles 1st for Morgan Frost/Florida 1st, but that's about as far as I think I would want to go on that.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 7 at 12:32 a.m.
Thread:
You have to swing for the fences
I think these trades are pretty slanted towards the Leafs.
-Parayko is a legit top pair defender (you seem to agree based on the lineup you have here.) If the Blues are moving him, I can't see them settling for this package - Toropchenko is arguably worth a 3rd on his own, so it's Lily/Robertson/3rd for Parayko with Brodie in there as cap ballast. I don't think there's anything strong enough here for the Blues to move a guy who's their #1 defender/PKer.
-Timmins hasn't done nearly enough to show that he's worth a 4th rounder, especially not to a team that already has Moritz Seider - Jeff Petry - Shayne Gostisbehere as their RHD depth chart with Justin Holl on hand to cycle in if necessary.
-I think Seeler is this year's Luke Schenn and could get back a 3rd rounder; a late 1st/4th/5th for an early 2nd is a roundabout way to get there but I think it will work. I'd pull the trigger on this if I were the Flyers.
-Jones has been basically average this year - the first time he's hit even that level since 2017-18. I can't see Jersey valuing 20 games this year over 220 games over the previous 5 seasons when valuing this guy.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 6 at 11:58 p.m.
Thread:
Savard trade flipped
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ht42</b></div><div>I remember somes peoples complaining with somes Monahan mock trades who included a 1st round pick and telling that was unrealistic.
I just hope that you don't make the same mistake as the other ones................</div></div>
There's a wide gulf between a 29 year old rental C scoring at a 55-60 point pace at a sub-$2M cap hit and a 33 year old third pair D making $3.5M and putting up poor possession numbers.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 6 at 11:55 p.m.
Thread:
Savard trade flipped
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>FiveForFighting</b></div><div>He’s the type of defenseman you need in the Playoffs. Ask Tampa, i’m sure they wouldn’t mind having him back and I wouldn’t even be surprised if they try to acquire him before Friday 3pm</div></div>
Tampa has $10.6M in cap space available next season with 9 F / 7 D / 2 G under contract already. Do you think they'd really target an 8th D-man, especially one with a $3.5M AAV, when they already have Mikhael Sergachev, Victor Hedman, Erik Cernak, and Nick Perbix under contract? Do you think they'd give up a 1st round pick to pick up a third pair guy that all but guarantees they can't re-sign Steve Stamkos?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 6 at 11:49 p.m.
Thread:
Adding for playoff race
For $350K more (and probably a lower pick because there's no retention) you could have Anthony Duclair, who I think is a better fit with his speed.
What's the reasoning behind Comrie? Sorokin + Varlamov are locked in at the NHL level and they're using Bridgeport more to develop younger goalies than stash a 3rd. If Varlamov gets hurt, they bring up Appleby for emergencies and ride Sorokin til the wheels fall off; if Sorokin gets hurt, the wheels have already fallen off and it doesn't matter who they call up to be the backup goalie.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 6 at 11:46 p.m.
Thread:
We Are Winning The Cup Again
i would say "not enough" but after that Hanifin trade WHO EVEN KNOWS ANYMORE
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 6 at 11:40 p.m.
Thread:
Savard trade flipped
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ht42</b></div><div>Hanifin wanted to be traded to a team that he will gonna sign a extension, and he have a select list (ex : Tampa, Vegas, etc.).
Savard doesn't want to be traded away, and the Habs aren't open to trade him UNTIL a team that they will deseperate need a RD who can play defense, and that's lead that the team will gonna need to paid that price (best example : the Leafs).</div></div>
Hanifin only had an 8-team NTC, it's not like Calgary was moving a guy like Tarasenko complete control over his destiny. If Craig Conroy was only negotiating with teams that Hanifin wanted to sign an extension with, well, he shouldn't be an NHL GM then (but that's a different story.)
To put it differently, here are two players:
Player A: 33 years old, former Cup champ, 19:34 TOI/2:55 PK, 3-12-15 in 55 GP, 43.5% CF at 5v5, 42/58 O/D-zone starts
Player B: 33 years old, former Cup champ, 20:33 TOI/3:18 PK, 5-10-15 in 40 GP, 43.2% CF at 5v5, 47/43 O/D-zone starts
Before you say which player you're trading a pick for, I'll tell you that one of these players is signed for an extra year at $2.75M AAV and one is signed through next year at $3.5M. Which one do you think is worth a 1st rounder?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 6 at 11:17 p.m.
Thread:
Savard trade flipped
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>FiveForFighting</b></div><div>Hanifin is a pending UFA. Savard has one more year at a decent cap hit</div></div>
$3.5M is not a "decent" cap hit for a guy like Savard. He brings minimal offense to the table, and his possession numbers are fairly negative this year - his CF is 43% at 5v5 despite the fact that he's getting nearly half his even strength starts in the O-zone, compared to last year when he got less than 40% offensive starts.
A 33 year old making $3.5M who'd be third pair on a contender just isn't worth a 1st. I'd argue that being on the hook for his age-34 season at $3.5M is more of a detriment than an asset, honestly.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 6 at 11:07 p.m.
Thread:
Savard trade flipped
Hanifin fully retained got a 1st, a conditional 3rd, and a roster body. Savard with full freight should not fetch a 1st.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Mar. 6 at 11:05 p.m.
Thread:
Colorado Avalanche signed Ivan Ivan (2 Years / $845,000 AAV)
it might take a little maneuvering but we now live in a world where a team could one day roll out this lineup:
Elias Pettersson - Ivan Ivan - Sebastian Aho
Elias Pettersson - Sebastian Aho
In net? Obviously a tandem of Matt Murray and Matt Murray.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 6 at 10:51 p.m.
Thread:
Calgary
Both Islanders deals are pretty bad for New York. They're giving up Romanov, a pair of 4ths+a 5th & 6th, and trading from the teens down to the mid/late 20s to get Blake Coleman with retention and Oscar Dansk. Dansk is absolutely not a need for a teem with Ilya Sorokin & Semyon Varlamov signed with term; Coleman is still overpaid at $2.45M for his age 33 through 36 seasons. Isles give up way too much value to get back nothing that really makes them better.
The rest of the deals are equally bad. Benoit is quickly becoming a fan favorite in Toronto and has been a strong third pair defender who has held his own when he's had to slide up the lineup. You think there just gonna give him away for FC? Dillon Dube is worth absolutely nothing right now, and you have Colorado paying a 3rd for him? There's a lot of moves here that just don't seem incredibly well thought out.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 6 at 6:41 p.m.
Thread:
Filling Holes - Bellemare Nedeljkovic Reilly
We thought we'd never see it again...
but "Mike Reilly for a 3rd" trades are <em><strong>BACK</strong></em>, baby!!
Isles accept, I would think. Aho or Bolduc can just get sheltered in that LD3 slot, or they can bring in another 6/7th type for a late round pick.
Ned at 3rd round value feels a little spicy - I don't think there are many legit contenders looking for goalie help (out of the teams currently in playoff position, I think maybe the Flyers, Kings or Leafs would be looking but that's it - in the east, Boston/Tampa/Florida/NYR/Canes are set, and the Wings probably wouldn't be itching to bring Ned back in; out west, Dallas/Winnipeg/Nashville/Vegas/Vancouver are set, & Edmonton doesn't have the space) so you might be able to push down to a 4th here, maybe throw conditions on it that turn it into a 3rd if Ned plays 50.1% of the playoffs or something like that.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 6 at 6:34 p.m.
Thread:
Still Guentzing that Buch
If you're still Guentzing your Buch after four hours, please call a doctor
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 6 at 6:26 p.m.
Thread:
How far off
Can't give up two more 1sts. They haven't made a 1st round pick since 2019 and the cupboards are near barren. I think the move this deadline is targeting pending UFA wingers, considering that it looks like a bit of a buyer's market there if you can move early. They've got one game left before the deadline, and coincidentally enough it's tomorrow night in San Jose, so I hope Lou is already sitting down with Mike Grier and seeing what it takes to get a guy like Anthony Duclair on board.
They're in shouting distance of the playoffs, but they're still gonna be on the outside looking in at the deadline. It's not the year to be giving up big assets - I'd rather keep the 1sts as a hedge against not making the playoffs and hopefully bring in some interesting young talent.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 6 at 6:17 p.m.
Thread:
What return should these potential trade targets for the isles get in return
Duclair is the only realistic target out of these three for me. The Isles need to be shopping in the purely rental aisle if they're making moves - they have less than $7M in cap space available next season with 9 F / 6 D / 2 G under contract. Adding Vatrano leaves you with $3M to add two more forwards to ice a full team every night (and whatever healthy scratches you want to carry); adding Buchnevich means you 100% have to shed cap next year to ice a 20 man roster. So you're either adding assets to get retention on Vatrano/Buchnevich's 2024-25 salary, or your paying to dump a Lee/Pageau type off the books, whether through buyout or trade.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 5 at 10:06 p.m.
Thread:
PARAYKO TRADE at Draft WITH ZERO RETENTION
Parayko is a legit top pair DFD who kills penalties and averages 23+ minutes per night. Liljegren is an okay second pair guy but he's 24 and I don't know how much more upside there is to him. Timmins is nothing more than a warm body, and the fact that you also have the Blues sending back Toropchenko *and* a decent pick makes this hilariously slanted towards the Leafs.
I'd also argue that Montreal is going to want more than Nick Robertson to turn Kampf's 3x$2.4M left after this year into Evans' expiring $1.7M, but I'm sure the army of Habs fans will be here shortly to do that for me.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 5 at 6:10 p.m.
Thread:
Wants
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>CHI probably has zero interest in adding more LD. The Wahlstrom trade is fine I guess, but I think the Isles will want to use him in a more substantial trade that adds a scoring winger. Last but not least, I doubt the Rangers are ready to move on from Kakko, a former 2nd overall pick, for so little. Much like the Isles, the Rangers will want to use him in a trade that brings back more substantial piece(s) than that trade would provide, if they even decide to move him.</div></div>
Beat me to it. I feel like if Wahlstrom is traded, it's either a 1-for-1 change of scenery trade, or they package him for something better. Donato isn't going to be anything more than bottom-6 on the Isles, like Wahlstrom has been, so I don't see the need for New York to add a pick to make a deal like that.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 5 at 6:08 p.m.
Thread:
If Mayfield goes on LTIR
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jded</b></div><div>I feel like the more helpful stat would be how Barzal’s line fared in the 500+ minutes without him with an alternative in his place. Because imo, Barzal’s line controlling 50.7% of chances actually seems low, especially since Barzal historically starts a pretty disproportionate number of his shifts in the offensive zone. It’s great they converted on that, but that’s unlikely to stick over a large enough sample if they’re only generating half the chances.
The fact that he requires an elite center to be decent, and still only generates 50% of the chances when that’s the case feels concerning, no?</div></div>
This is per NaturalStatTrick, 5v5, 2021-22 through today:
Wahlstrom CF% with Barzal: 50.69% (539:49 TOI)
Wahlstrom CF% without Barzal: 44.98% (807:58 TOI)
Barzal CF% without Wahlstrom: 49.82% (1331:27 TOI)
It's hard to judge the few high-end Islanders forwards on possession numbers, because so much of Trotz (and then Lambert's) gameplan was bend-but-don't-break, forcing the other team into taking low-percentage shots and aiming for higher-danger chances on offense. The 2021-22 Isles were -302 in shot differential, last year's team made the playoffs at -20, and this year's team is hanging around the margins of the race at -212 through 60 GP. Anything 48% and up has usually been the "better" side of Isles forwards over the past few years.
I wish Wahlstrom had a little more run with Brock Nelson in that time - Nelson is a very good 2C and Wahlstrom generally had good possession numbers with him, but we're talking about 98:33 together over 3 seasons - not enough to really glean much useful data from. But they generally were deployed offensively and that date looked favorably on that pair in their time together - I would hope that Wahlstrom getting time with another offensive line would bode well for whatever team finally uses him correctly.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 5 at 12:21 a.m.
Thread:
If Mayfield goes on LTIR
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jded</b></div><div>I know his linemates aren’t doing him any favors, but he starts half his shifts in the offensive zone and has like 6 points this year. And his advanced stats are horrendous</div></div>
When you start looking at his WOWY stats at 5v5, I feel like you can start seeing hope for him as an offensive force. Since the beginning of 2021-22, he's played almost identical amounts at 5v5 with Barzal as his center (539:49) and Pageau (519:27.) With Barzal, the Isles control 50.7% of the chances and have outscored their opponents 22-14; with Pageau he's down to 43.4% of the chances and only a 20-19 GF/GA. Numbers get worse when you look at the 100+ minutes he's inexplicably spent on Casey Cizikas' wing in that time.
It really comes down to not trying to fit his square peg into a round hole - if you accept the fact that he's going to occasionally have a defensive issue, I think you're gonna wind up with a very good offense-first winger.
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