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Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 2, 2020 at 7:24 p.m.
Thread: wsh trade take two
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>Missed it. Thank goodness for the echo... :)

Copley has twice as many wins as Mikheyev has goals. The best guys get 40-50 of each. These aren't the best guys, but Copley has achieved twice as much as Mikheyev, in fewer games. He'll also be cheaper next year, I bet, and that's more valuable than a three year age difference, between two teams with zero cap space.

When Hutchinson posted his terrific 30 win season, in 2014-15, Rick Nash, Zach Parise, and Jiri Hudler got 30 goals apiece. It's not relevant to a goalie who, since last year, is not in the top 62 in any goaltending stat that matters, and has no current trade value. Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi also got 30 wins that year, with great stats. Should Toronto sign them?

If Hutchinson had gone 3-0-2 in Toronto last year, or 4-1-0, the Leafs would have had home ice advantage against Boston. He went 2-3-0 behind a team so good it still finished win 100 points, so they had to start the playoffs on the road.</div></div>

God, you're throwing out "Aliens" guy logic now. Later mate, enjoy your holidays.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 2, 2020 at 12:32 p.m.
Thread: wsh trade take two
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>Obviously there are lots of smart Leafs fans, with lots of different opinions. I complimented the Leafs fans who asked about Gudas and Copley. I didn't mean to hurt your feelings. I'm sure you're very smart, too. Don't feel left out.</div></div>

My feelings weren't hurt, I'm merely pointing out that you can't really play the victim when you weren't attacked and were in fact aggressive with your own comments.


<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>The hard part about comparing stats is that you look at them in situations. Nic Petan is a point a game AHLer but in the NHL it doesn't translate. Kaskisuo played his tail off to try to make the NHL, got there, and put up a 6.0 GAA.

Copley proved he can play in the NHL last year. With the 33rd best GAA of a goalie over 25 games played, he showed he belongs. He lost his spot to a league-wide top goalie prospect. He probably doesn't feel like he has a lot to prove in the AHL. I think a move to any NHL team that needs a backup should be enough to get him going.</div></div>

I find it funny that you think 25 games is enough for a goalie to prove that they are a legitimate backup option, but Mikheyev's 39 games are too few. Also are you aware that Hutchinson actually has 120 games of NHL experience, with a career sv% of 0.906 compared to Copley's 0.901.



<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>I agree that on paper, Kaskisuo and Hutchinson should be backup goalies. I'm just looking at their NHL results, and I think I"m not alone in wondering if the Leafs will trade for a different backup goalie....I think the two guys above could get the Leafs Georgiev, but not Georgiev and a top four defenseman with an edge.</div></div>

I agree that the leafs could be looking at other backup options, but I don't think they are as low on Hutchinson as some people seem to be. From my point of view a guy like Georgiev actually has starter potential so to me his value vs Copley is astronomically higher.

Most backup options shouldn't cost the leafs more than a 4th round pick or AHL project. Georgiev I could see the Leafs entertaining the idea of trading a middle 6 forward for...but there's no way they trade two of Kapanen/Kerfoot/Johnsson/Mikheyev for him.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 2, 2020 at 11:59 a.m.
Thread: wsh trade take two
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div><strong>Of goalies with at least 25 games,</strong> he finished 33rd in GAA. The top 31 are starters? I think he's a good backup goalie, but I'm sure you'll tell me his spct in that group makes him just a slightly above average backup goalie. That's true. He's not going to be mistaken for Ken Dryden soon.</div></div>

Rather high bar

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>I agree that most teams in the NHL have a backup goalie. Toronto has a streaky starter, plus two guys with GAA of 4.03 and 6.00. Hutchinson and Kaskisuo rank 68th and 76th in the NHL in GAA just this year. They are not backup goalies. One is a prospect and one is not. Hutchinson was pretty good last year. Something must have happened. Now the Leafs should look to add a backup goalie</div></div>

What happened was the team was garbage for a long stretch, and Babcock only played him on the 2nd half of the back-to-back. If you want to talk about horrible season this year though, by all means. Copley is currently sitting in 37th place for sv% at the AHL level. Leafs prospect Joseph Woll is sitting at 47th while Kaskisuo is sitting in 13th. And you want to know what is better than paying a replacement player $400k more than league min for three years? Paying a replacement player league min for 1 year for each of those three years.

Hutch and Kaskisuo are just as qualified if not moreso to be the backup for the Leafs.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>Tor fans are still divided on that Hainsey trade, but Hainsey will be 39 soon, so I think they made the right move.</div></div>

...Hainsey walked as a free agent.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>As for value, I'm looking at it as the unproven 25 year old rookie for the proven backup on the great three year deal, and the young top nine forward for the tough top four defenseman</div></div>

Proven backup in the AHL, making more than league minimum, and specifically making more than a buriable amount. Someone might take a gamble on Copley for a late pick, but he doesn't have the value of a middle 6 winger even if they are a rookie.


<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>but the description says to respond with counteroffers, not insults. If you want to insult guys, I have the patience to give that back.</div></div>

Where have I personally attacked you? I said your evaluation is off. If anything you're the one who has attacked other people with the underhanded "well the 'smart leafs fans'" comment.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 2, 2020 at 11:02 a.m.
Thread: wsh trade take two
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>I'm a Caps fan. Some pretty smart Leafs fans have asked about Gudas and Copley. Gudas played top pair in Philly last year. Copley was top 40 in wins last year, top 50 in GAA and SPCT. The knee-jerk rejections on this site get old.</div></div>

All teams carry at least two goalies, so Copley scraping into the top 50 isn't exactly overwhelming. He is a backup and has backup value, which in the NHL is generally pretty low (Max like a 3rd round pick) unless you have legitimate starter potential which Copley does not.

Gudas I am definitely interested in, but more so for this off-season as a shorter-term UFA acquisition. Him playing "top pairing" means as much as saying the Leafs let go of their "top pairing" defenseman Ron Hainsey last off-season.

If it was Kapanen for an extended Gudas I could understand that trade for the Leafs in terms of rebalancing the team. But as a rental, it just doesn't make sense, especially when adding Mikheyev into the mix when he should be ready for the playoffs.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 31, 2019 at 8:27 a.m.
Thread: Philly Trade with DAL and TOR
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hammerwise</b></div><div>Possibly, but Braun is a RH, can play solid defense and top four minutes, pitlick gives solid two way play and both are reasonably cheap (if Philly retains some salary) and doesn't hurt the Leafs moving forward. Lyon is simply a depth goalie, whos been okay in limited NHL time.
Johnsson is a nice and relatively inexpensive piece, but IMO, the Leafs will have to move some forward depth to address defense, or it'll be a short playoffs again</div></div>

The leafs have a plethera of players of Pitlick's caliber, he does nothing for the Leafs. Similarly, Lyon isn't the obvious choice over even Kaskisuo for 3rd string goalie, so provides nothing more than crowding the Leafs at the AHL level when they want to give Woll starts.

Which leaves us with essentially Johnsson for an aging and decling Braun who isn't really being used in the hard usage he was last year on San Jose. He's still hitting 50% in shot metrics, but when push comes to shove he's not keeping things out of the net with a +/- of -12, and a 5v5.GF% of 39.62% GF. You could argue his PDO is low, and that is true, but it was 96.9 through 78 games last year, and now 93.2 through 39 games. I find it difficult to believe he would be better than Ceci.