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Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 15, 2019 at 10:59 a.m.
Thread: Time for a Line Shuffle
Center is Nylander's natural position. He played it while developing in Sweden, the AHL, and during his initial call-up with the Leafs. It's only since Matthews arrived that the Leafs moved him to the wing (since he wasn't replacing Matthews/Kadri/Bozak or Tavares/Matthews/Kadri down the middle), otherwise he'd still be developing as a center.

Even while playing on Matthews' wing last year, Nylander would regularly take draws on his strong side. In fact, the Leafs could use a RH center to take face-offs now that Bozak has departed (Tavares/Matthews/Kadri and even Lindholm/Gauthier are all lefties).

Willie looks lost on the wing. Even at his best, his board play is mediocre. He doesn't have any chemistry with Kadri. He's not replacing Marner on the Tavares line. And he can't keep up with Matthews' pace at the moment. The fourth line then seems like a reasonable suggestion, but only as a short term wake-up call. Long term, I'd want to see what he can do as the Leafs 3rd line center (getting all the juicy match-ups), while loading up our top two lines to see how much Matthews could accomplish with two veteran scorers on his wings with regularity.

**I agree that playing center is much more crucial (positional awareness, detail orientation, two-way commitment) than playing the wing, but it's also much less restrictive in terms of how much ice you can utilize. Willie is the type of player that needs open ice to thrive. Forget about how his play looks for a few games, and just let him get out there and do what he does best - control and distribute the puck. For that to happen, the Leafs need to get him off the boards and allow him some space to get creative again. Surround him with puck hounds (Hyman/Kapanen/Johnsson/Brown) who can do all that dirty work on the forecheck/cycle. Those guys don't need the puck to be effective players. Willie does. That's why I'd make him the focal point of his line at 5-on-5. Turn him into the big gun instead of using him as a side-turret to Matthews or Kadri.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 18, 2018 at 5:39 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 18, 2018 at 5:17 a.m.
Thread: CMon Dubas END THIS
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>That's right. I don't expect gards or hainsey to come back. Don't want hainsey. Dermott is the real deal, and babs is transitioning him to riellys right. Both Sandin and Liljegren look really good, and zaitzev has been fine. He is not, and wasn't supposed to be a points guy, but a more defensively sound pick carrying defenseman, which he is. I expect that next year the lines look like

Rielly-Dermott
Ozhiganov-zaitzev
Rosen -Liljegren

Maybe Sandin can make the team, who knows. The point is that it is all well and doable, but I think Dubas is trying hard to get everyone to good contracts so that he can keep gards, or at least get someone in Ufa, not that it is likely.

And I know one what you are thinking about oz-zaitzev.
Don't believe the negative hype around him,he is actually fine. I think part of his problem is the system, as his biggest flaws seem to be encouraged by the play structure (stretch passes and such, he is a puck carrier). Either way he is still a decent but overpaid 2nd pairing guy that if fully developed might turn out to not be overpaid. With ox on the left, he and zaitzev played together in the khl before we stole zaitzev, and they were killing it. The idea is to rekindle that magic until the Marleau deal is off the books and we can replace him/move oz down in the lineup.
Just look at my 1st acgm on my profile. Some things have changed since I made that but we have more than enough cap space to account for it. Changes I would make include paying nyalnder and Marner more, maybe add 340k to Matthews contract and carrick is gone but you get the idea. That's also with a 81.5 cap.

Just ignore spelling, am on mobile and autocorrect doesn't like hockey talk</div></div>

It's all good, the grammar police are on holiday...

I actually really like Zaitsev. He had a rough year last year, but he's a solid 2nd-pair guy who chews up a lot of tough minutes. Even though he's probably not the first guy you'd think of when talking about the Leafs' core, I think he's a very important piece of the puzzle going forward.

It's taken some time for me to warm up to Ozhiganov, but I feel like he's acclimating well and improving, albeit slowly. Jury's still out though.

We can all agree Rielly's a stud, and Dermott's got the potential to be one too.

I can see Rosen, Liljegren, Borgman, Sandin, Holl, and Andrew Nielsen battling it out for one spot on the blueline, but the Leafs really need at least one more NHL veteran to round out that defensive core. That's why a Nylander (or maybe a Kapanen) trade makes so much sense. Adding a Montour or a Pesce or a Dumba to that core of Rielly/Dermott/Zaitsev would just go such a long way towards solidifying the foundation of that back-end. Last thing I'd want the Leafs to do is rush a Liljegren or a Sandin. Let them season in the AHL until they're ripe and ready.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 18, 2018 at 1:50 a.m.
Thread: CMon Dubas END THIS
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>You understand that a QA is like an additional 10% or something on the contract right? That's like 1.something AAV. Nylander can go to literally any other league for more. Why would he sign in the NHL for that?

The leafs can afford 7aav, they just don't want to as it makes things even tighter. We have 38 ish million in cap space man, it isn't hard to see how it all fits. And no, that's not the future at all lol. You are just talking out of your ass. You clearly have no clue what the **** is happening,or how it works.

No choice to trade him. If worse comes to worse, YOU FIND A WAY. The cap is ~ 82.5 million next year. Last I checked Matthews,jt,mm,wn won't even come close to that. It means you can keep them all.

God you are a ******* idiot.</div></div>

Holy smokes bud, chill out.

Let's assume the cap is at $82.5 million next year (after spending all day telling people not to spread unreliable information, you just throw that one out there, but ok...). You're correct, the Leafs would have about $38 million in cap space. After signing Matthews and Marner half of that will be gone... $19 million left. Now you still have to sign Nylander, Kapanen, Johnsson and Lindholm. Let's be conservative and say $12 million for the four-pack of Scandinavians... $7 million in cap space remaining. So far the Leafs have 10 forwards, 4 defensemen and 1 goalie under contract. You need to roster at least 3 more forwards, 3 more defensemen, and a back-up goalie for less than $7 million (if the cap rises to $82.5M like we assumed). Doable? for sure. But then you can kiss Gardiner goodbye. Hainsey too if he wants anything over $2 million on a one-year deal. So then your blueline looks something like this:

Rielly / Zaitsev
Dermott / Ozhiganov
Rosen / Liljegren
Holl
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 17, 2018 at 1:47 p.m.
Thread: CMon Dubas END THIS
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>Must be some strong legal pot up in Canada.
<strong>Nylander isn't going to take less than Marner</strong> and neither player is going to take half as much as Matthews. Those are just facts.
If he isn't traded it will be a 1 year deal, and he will go to arbitration next year. Most likely he will be traded before that as the leafs won't be able to afford the arbitrators decision.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>Marner and nyalnder deals won't be as long as Matthews. Also, 6.5 and 8 is about fair considering production for 5 to 6 years. Matthews will get the full 8, and the reason he will be so highly paid is because of buffalo and Edmonton badly overpaying their players out of desperation. <strong>Nylander and Marner would get matching contract if they were up together</strong>, but Marner has another year and plays with JT (both are on pace for 100 points so far). That's what changes the AAV. <strong>I agree they are very similar.
</strong>
Matthews is on a while other level of good. The adv stats say it, the eye test says it, and he will get paid like it.


Also, I never said it was likely, I just think the reason Dubas is being so absurdly stingy is due to the fact that he wants to keep gards, and if they get fair contracts it is just barely possible, hence the leafs holding out.</div></div>

Are people still seriously putting Nylander in the same category as Marner!?

Marner has clearly separated himself from Nylander by this point. Has he not?
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 17, 2018 at 1:41 p.m.
Thread: TML2020 After Nylander Trade with ANA
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Larkinisking</b></div><div>Dude? Zero chance of Nylander accepting that deal, He wants $8 million per. And i doubt he budges and Anaheim can't afford an $8 million per William Nylander.</div></div>

Then good luck to him in the KHL or in the Swedish league. He's a 20 goal, 60 point winger in the NHL. And in a salary capped league, that gets you somewhere in the range of 6-7 million dollars a year on a long-term deal. He has no leverage to squeeze the Leafs for anything more. They're the top team in the NHL at the moment and Kapanen has emerged as an offensive threat on that right side. So if Nylander doesn't budge, and the Leafs decide not to trade him, then he sits out the entire season, makes $0 (in the NHL), and then gets to go through this exact same process next season as priority number three on the Leafs' list of things to do.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 17, 2018 at 12:36 p.m.
Thread: TML2020 After Nylander Trade with ANA
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>the pasta deal is a horrible example to go off of. He had 1 good year before he signed that deal.
Nylander has been consistent showing 3 solid years 2 full years.
Furthermore, is there anyone out there who doesn'think Pasta is currently under paid?

Kind of hard to use that as an example don't you think. If anything it justifies him wanting more.</div></div>

Pasta is definitely underpaid for what he is now. Nylander may be trying to avoid that situation but here's the reality: you don't get paid for what you think you can be, you get paid for what you've shown you can do. Don't think Pasta is a good comparable for Willy? Let's have a look at the numbers...

<strong>David Pastrnak</strong>
2014/15 - 46 GP - 10G / 17A = 27 PTS
2015/16 - 51 GP - 15G / 11A = 26 PTS
2016/17 - 75 GP - 34G / 36A = 70 PTS

TOTAL GP = 172
TOTAL PTS = 123 (59G / 64A)

That's good for a 0.72 Points Per Game average (0.34GPG / 0.37APG). Pro-rated over an 82-game season, that's 28.1G / 30.5A = 58.7PTS

<strong>William Nylander</strong>
2015/16 - 22 GP - 6G / 7A = 13PTS
2016/17 - 81 GP - 22G / 39A = 61PTS
2017/18 - 82 GP - 20G / 41A = 61PTS

TOTAL GP = 185
TOTAL POINTS = 135 (48G / 87A)

That comes out to a 0.73 Points Per Game average (0.26GPG / 0.47APG). Pro-rated over an 82-game season, that's 21.3G / 38.6A = 59.8PTS


So...

28.1G / 30.5A = 58.7PTS (at $6.66M a season)
or
21.3G / 38.6A = 59.8PTS (at $8.0M a season?)

How does that justify a $1.0M+ (rumored) raise in asking price? How does that justify a raise at all? I'll take the extra 7 goals with my Pasta please and thank you.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 17, 2018 at 4:24 a.m.
Thread: 2019 LEAFS
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>You guarantee? On what information? Speculation from unreliable sources? No one knows what's going on, Dubas is a little Lou when it comes to murdering leakers.

Based on what's out there, which again is unreliable, he probs asked for 8@8 hoping for 7@7 or 8@7. The problem for him is the Leafs likely won't go above 6@6.5 as he is not worth more with that term, and the Leafs want to keep Gardiner, so they cannot resign him for more anyways. He will sign, and the leafs won't budge as it implicates major contracts as soon as next year.

Add to that the fact that this return is pitiable at best.</div></div>

Why would you berate the guy for using "unreliable information" and then go on to write an entire paragraph based on the same speculation lol

The return for Nylander is more than fair. The second round pick is probably a little rich actually.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 17, 2018 at 4:13 a.m.
Thread: TML2020 After Nylander Trade with ANA
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SammyT_51</b></div><div>Also cap goes higher so those players cap hits would be around 7 now but yeah, he is not worth 7 at the moment. Maybe in future he might be 10mil player who the heck knows how he develops but right now he isnt that. I agree that he is closer to Huberdeau and Larkin than Pastrnak and Gaudreau, right now. He deserves 6 for 6 and he should be grateful for that. Another thing with him is that he can make another 10mil not counting 6mil deal on doing ads.. he has that persona of a sportsman who can make those bucks in other business than hockey as well so the money isnt problem here but I dont think Nylanders camp isnt looking into that option.. Duby is and thats why he wants him to sign lower money.. Nylander would make money either way., Its dumb that he is so greedy but I admire Dubas for not overpaying him.</div></div>

Yeah, Dubas is doing the right thing by holding his ground. It's tough that the first big RFA contract he does goes to a hold out. But this is on the Nylander camp for sure. I agree bud, the greed is dumb.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 17, 2018 at 3:53 a.m.
Thread: TML2020 After Nylander Trade with ANA
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SammyT_51</b></div><div>With Leafs its likely below 7 or around 7 at nov 30.. with other team after trade around 7.25-7.75mil both on longterm deal.

But I would change Montour to Manson and I would add prospect D from Toronto to ANA.</div></div>

I hope the Leafs don't crack and give him anything close to 7. When did 20 goals and 60 points become so expensive? Forsberg, Gaudreau, Ehlers, Pastrnak - they all had better seasons than Nylander before signing their deals in the 6.0M-6.75M range. And Willy's asking for 8M!?! To be honest, I think he's closer to Drouin ($5.5M), Huberdeau ($5.9M) or Larkin ($6.1M) than those other guys. And for me at least, he's not anywhere close to Draisatl/Kuznetsov territory.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 17, 2018 at 3:30 a.m.
Thread: CMon Dubas END THIS
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>No. No its not even close to fair value. God and people say Leafs fans make bad trades. Learn how to evaluate talent.



What glaring need? I did not know the Leafs needed MORE offence!</div></div>

I don't pretend to know how NHL GM's conduct business, but please explain to me how that trade is "not even close" to fair value.

And I agree - they don't need more offense. That's why it makes sense to trade Willy for a defenseman?

Last time I checked, the right side of Toronto's blueline has a left-handed 37 year old pending UFA on its top pairing, a 26 year old rookie on its bottom pairing, and Martin Marincin as the next best option to replace either of those guys barring any injury (God forbid Zaitsev gets hurt). Unless your banking on Justin Holl finding his legs at the NHL level, or thrusting Timothy Liljegren into the fire before he's ready (that goes for next season too), then I'd say there is a pretty glaring need on the right side of that blueline.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 17, 2018 at 1:11 a.m.
Thread: CMon Dubas END THIS
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>Dermott is looking like he can fill his spot well by next year, although we will see how that goes by year end. If we wanted another Gardiner, we would just sign Gards. I actually think the reason Nylander hasn't signed is because Dubas wants to keep Gards too, and it is <strong>JUST<strong> possible if he gets fair deals. Hence why they wont budge on Nylander.</strong></strong>
Also, Not enough, unless Silfverberg resigns.</div></div>

Montour + 1 year of Silfverberg is fair value for Nylander imo. Re-signing Silfverberg actually makes the deal worse because that $3+ million in cap space is more valuable to the Leafs next season than an aging top-9 winger.

Dermott's the real deal (still young, but the kid's got obvious NHL talent).

Gardiner's going to get $6+ million on the open market. Even if Willie gets bridged at $5M, Matts takes $10M, Mitch takes $8M, and the Leafs get Kaps, Johny, Lindholm, plus the rest of their depth for under $10M, that leaves like $5M maybe for Gardiner? As things currently stand, he's just priced out of Toronto.