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dgibb10

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Jan. 16, 2023
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Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 4:34 p.m.
Thread: Big Zs value
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caufield</b></div><div>At this point, although I would really like Zegras, I do agree he is not a fit. However, there is no evidence of past trades ever that a similar trade to this one with similar players to Zegras ever returned that much. Even Eichel, got traded for a late 1st (which became a mid-1st but shouldn't have), a A- prospect, a 2nd, and a top-line guy, but Tuch wasn't a top-line guy before the trade. Dach is as good as Tuch was when traded, but is younger and has Top 5 OA potential. And we are talking about a high 1st, not a low 1st. The Prospect is downgraded a bit and the 2nd is dropped, but that doesn't cover the other pieces. Plus Eichel was much better than Zegras is at the time of the trade.

I know ANA will want the moon for him, but IF he gets traded, I have a sneaky feeling Ducks fans will be disappointed in the return</div></div>

Dach 18 5v5 points. Zegras had 41.
Tuch had a career high of 43 even strength points (18-19) before being traded
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 10:09 p.m.
Thread: Devils vs Canes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>It shows his GF was better, but if you read, they say Aho's actually the better player. Something people love to point out with RAPM charts is that they do not account for system, QoT, QoC or a few other things. Aho has a giant leash on his offensive upside under Rod. This isn't new or controversial. Look at players that come in, their xGF falls through the floor because Rod doesn't allow for quality shot chances so much as shot volume. It's an olf-fashioned system and would probably be better if the Canes were more free flowing. You also are keen to mention unless there is an unsustainable shooting percentage, which Hughes probably doesn't have? 12.8 is probably sustainable for someone of his skillset, although I wouldn't be shocked if he was going at 10% next year because he's a human being. But if we flip this and look at Aho, who shot 16% last season and has done over the last 4 years, that also implies that Aho's skillset is better. Hughes is much more talented in terms of the tools he has, but there is definitely a world where Aho outproduced Hughes next year and we revisit this. Hughes is an absolute stud, but the disrepect Aho gets is mad.

The chart shows Aho's actually probably better at this point, but you know, you probably believe points are the be all and end all so I don't blame you.

Andersen was fine in 2019-20... what do you mean? He had a tragic October, he usually does, but he was on pace for his usual save percentage and xGSA stats. They were truncated by the pandemic, and then you saw in All or Nothing he was made to play hurt during the bubble. But it doesn't fit your narrative so you'll discount it.



As I've said, Carolina's xG differential was talent under Peters, Maurice, and Mueller. It just wasn't a good roster. Since Waddell took over, it's Rod. You can see the talent that comes through Carolina go elsewhere and succeed. Nic Roy, Erik Haua, Warren Foegele, Vincent Trocheck, Nino Niederreiter... the entire system works on low danger chances stemming from point shots. The teams xG stats and they defensemen are inflated. Definitely. The forwards probably have deflated numbers because they aren't in a position to generate so much. It's how a forward like Stef Noesen who lives at the edge of the crease scores 13 goals, like he did last season.</div></div>

But I can't wait for Aho's 35g 80p season, hischier's 35g 85p selke season, and hughes 110 point season while you still insist aho is on hughes' tier
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 9:46 p.m.
Thread: Devils vs Canes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>It shows his GF was better, but if you read, they say Aho's actually the better player. Something people love to point out with RAPM charts is that they do not account for system, QoT, QoC or a few other things. Aho has a giant leash on his offensive upside under Rod. This isn't new or controversial. Look at players that come in, their xGF falls through the floor because Rod doesn't allow for quality shot chances so much as shot volume. It's an olf-fashioned system and would probably be better if the Canes were more free flowing. You also are keen to mention unless there is an unsustainable shooting percentage, which Hughes probably doesn't have? 12.8 is probably sustainable for someone of his skillset, although I wouldn't be shocked if he was going at 10% next year because he's a human being. But if we flip this and look at Aho, who shot 16% last season and has done over the last 4 years, that also implies that Aho's skillset is better. Hughes is much more talented in terms of the tools he has, but there is definitely a world where Aho outproduced Hughes next year and we revisit this. Hughes is an absolute stud, but the disrepect Aho gets is mad.

The chart shows Aho's actually probably better at this point, but you know, you probably believe points are the be all and end all so I don't blame you.

Andersen was fine in 2019-20... what do you mean? He had a tragic October, he usually does, but he was on pace for his usual save percentage and xGSA stats. They were truncated by the pandemic, and then you saw in All or Nothing he was made to play hurt during the bubble. But it doesn't fit your narrative so you'll discount it.



As I've said, Carolina's xG differential was talent under Peters, Maurice, and Mueller. It just wasn't a good roster. Since Waddell took over, it's Rod. You can see the talent that comes through Carolina go elsewhere and succeed. Nic Roy, Erik Haua, Warren Foegele, Vincent Trocheck, Nino Niederreiter... the entire system works on low danger chances stemming from point shots. The teams xG stats and they defensemen are inflated. Definitely. The forwards probably have deflated numbers because they aren't in a position to generate so much. It's how a forward like Stef Noesen who lives at the edge of the crease scores 13 goals, like he did last season.</div></div>

15 consecutive years of underperforming to the tune of something like 400 total goals below expectation makes you start to question things.

Their xGoal stats are inflated yes. They consistently fail to actually perform.

Hughes is tiers above Aho offensively. Aho is a ppg player, hischier is a ppg player, hughes is a 100 point player (who's going to be even better this year).
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 19 at 4:33 p.m.
Thread: Calder Odds top 10
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>He might play more than Faber. Again if Faber is on PP1 with Zuccerelo, Boldy and Kaprizov he could absolutely get 50-60 points. }

Once again, this year has far too many high end forwards or forwards with excellent opportunities for Luke to be a legitimate Calder contender unless Dougie gets a long term injury. No idea why this matters so much to you, not like McDavid won the Calder in his rookie year. I am very confident that Luke Hughes will finish top 10 in voting, maybe even top 5. His floor is very high but this year is simply far too stacked against him to actually win it.

In recent years when a defenseman won or came close to winning the Calder they had high end potential like Luke as well as opportunity.
Seider - excellent 2-way game combined with a 50 point season. He basically stole it from Zegras and Raymond in the final ~30 games.
Makar, Q. Hughes, and Fox - 50, 52, and 42 points each. Kubalik was the only forward that even had a chance at winning that year</div></div>

There's a reason hughes has the second best odds behind only bedard at +600. But you're welcome to go grab faber at +6000 if you want. Hughes is absolutely capable of dropping a 50 point season this year
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 19 at 4:12 p.m.
Thread: Calder Odds top 10
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Being the best defensive prospect does not make you a Calder favorite. Opportunity does, hence why I included Devon Levi despite Dustin Wolf being a strictly better prospect. Unless Dougie gets injured long term he isn't getting significant time on the 1st PP unit. I could absolutely see him putting up 30-40 points next year but that's not going to cut it. Not with the forwards that are entering the league this year. Brock Faber actually has a chance of taking that 1st unit job though as it's completely up for grabs.</div></div>

Luke is taking over graves minutes. There's 20 minutes a night up for grabs and even on PP2 that includes at least 3 of Holtz, Toffoli, Bratt, Meier, and Mercer. He's gonna play more than any other rookie dman and is better than any other rookie dman