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dilldoughs
Member Since
Mar. 3, 2021
Favourite Team
Edmonton Oilers
Forum Posts
322
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0.3
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 7 at 4:00 p.m.
Thread:
They are really bad lets just hope Leonard comes soon
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sprak</b></div><div>Lingren is the caps defacto starter, he just got injured for a bit so Kuemper has played more games</div></div>
Good for him, he has played well, but goalies don't tend to go for high prices, and this is a massive overpay for EDM imo. No reason to make the trade this way.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 7 at 3:57 p.m.
Thread:
They are really bad lets just hope Leonard comes soon
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ClockReads2113</b></div><div>Change the 3rd to a 2nd in the EDM deal.
Highly doubt LAK is giving up a 1st for a rental, but I do think you could get a 2nd for Mantha from someone, a 1st is wishful thinking. Maybe if Caps took back a bad contract as well then a 1st makes sense.</div></div>
Bourgault and a 3rd is already an overpay for a backup goalie, why would you change it to a 2nd ??? Not remotely worth it from an Oilers perspective
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 25 at 4:54 p.m.
Thread:
The Only Way
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Ceci isn't a cap dump though. If you think he is then you haven't been paying attention.
Walker is having a good season so far but on a contender he's a 3rd pairing guy who isn't great defensively. There's no way Edmonton would want him in the top-4. He's a right-handed Brett Kulak.</div></div>
I never said Ceci was a dump; I have been looking at players out there and I really don't see a viable upgrade that is worth spending on. I agree Walker probably doesn't make sense, but he has similar defensive metrics to Ceci this year, with better offensive ones. But if Ceci can stabilize a bit, I would be comfortable going into playoffs with changing the D core. This trade is a bad example, I was mostly just curious to see what the team would look like if you swapped Ceci out.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 25 at 4:51 p.m.
Thread:
The Only Way
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>They can ask for whatever they want on the market, it's a matter of whether or not they get it.
The noise surrounding Habs fans and Monahan absolutely fetching a first at the deadline led me to deep-dive what equivalent players went for last year. Rental #3C's go for a second round pick on average. Dowd wouldn't be a rental but he's also very much a #4C. Rental #4C's range from a 4th round pick to a pair of 5ths from what I could note. If I just double THAT value to account for Dowd having an extra season on the end of his deal, unretained one would be looking at something in the ballpark of a 3rd and a C-prospect. A second round pick covers the bill in full on a retained Dowd, or at the very least should and sentiment is clouding the judgment of those who would ask for excessively more than that. More or less why I would argue that Coleman and Goodrow are poor comparisons: those were top-nine pieces (when they were moved) with term. A second round pick and a crapshoot prospect is more than market enough.
Likewise, which team is objectively close enough to being a legitimate Stanley Cup contender to shed a first on their #4C? Boston and Colorado both want a top-six center, Florida and Dallas probably want a top LHD. Edmonton has need for a 1B goaltender, legitimate Ceci upgrade, and one could split hairs on whether or not they should prioritize a #2RW or #4C.
Lindgren will never fetch a first, term be damned. The only time first round picks are exchanged for goalers are when they happen to be incidental parts of a larger deal. I made it to the summer of 2015 before giving up on my search to find any goaltenders that had been directly traded for a first round pick at the deadline and could only find Fleury for a conditional first. Besides that, the closest we get to this is Kuemper four days following the 2021 draft. Lindgren has been a good piece for the Caps this year but doesn't come with the name power that Fleury did nor does he have the resume.
Realistically the only thing that would dissuade Washington from taking the 2024 and 2026 Oilers' seconds is having to wait until 2026 to collect on the second pick.
I'll clarify: I don't necessarily hate using the 2024 1st but my priority for that pick is to upgrade on Ceci. If that cannot happen I don't mind using it plus the 2025 3rd to acquire both Dowd and Lindgren, I just want full value for that trade. A first and a third, plus whatever minor prospect is sent out, far exceeds that ballpark pair of seconds mark, even if we're looking at retention on Dowd. Hence my ask of late picks offset by the same range that Edmonton's picks would be offset by.</div></div>
Yep that's all very fair; good assessment. As EDM I'd obviously much rather trade the 2nds. Just trying to see it from a WSH perspective, and whether they decide if their price isn't met this year that they just hold onto the players.
My priority for the team would be a Ceci upgrade but I just don't see one out there. Unless you could somehow get Larsson back, or get someone like Pulock/Weegar/Marino/Zub, I wouldn't be spending much for a UFA upgrade. With Perry coming in, Holloway looking good, McLeod/Foegele producing, and hopefully Kane getting healthy and producing again, I feel like 4C > 2RW at the moment. Especially one with Dowd's defensive prowess. Grab a 1B with him in the same trade and you're basically set. Maybe both 2nds + whichever C-ish level prospect is enough to get you there.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 25 at 4:06 p.m.
Thread:
The Only Way
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>Then don't upgrade on him until such a clear upgrade becomes available. You're just shedding assets for the sake of it at that point.
I would want corresponding picks coming back from Washington and full retention on Dowd if we're offering them a first. The 2024 4th and 2025 6th specifically. Dowd and Lindgren could probably be had for a pair of seconds and a minor piece, your offer exceeds that value even if Niemelainen and Pickard are just contracts going back to the Capitals.</div></div>
This was just to see what it would look like to move Ceci. IMO there isn't anyone really worth trading for in real life. Agree with your stance there.
Do you think Caps would want 2024 2nd + 2026 2nd to part with Dowd/Lindgren? Doubtful. Maybe if EDM is moving the 1st, they get Caps to retain on Dowd like you mentioned, to make things a bit easier next year. I still think WSH would ask for a 1st for both players, and from an EDM perspective that pick won't be helping for the next ~3 years so I say move it for players in positions of need, with good cap/term. Dowd/Lindgren fit that quite well imo. Maybe it's a different prospect than Niemo, and a lower pick than 3rd with less conditions, but to me this is pretty close to fair on both sides :)
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 18 at 4:24 p.m.
Thread:
MTL scenario TDL24
that's a brutal trade for Edmonton
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 18 at 2:19 p.m.
Thread:
Ken Hollands Last Hurrah
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PurpleHippo</b></div><div>If we're not going to use him we should also dump Brown in one of those trades.
Wouldn't cost the team we send him to pretty much anything and would save us ~3.2M next season.</div></div>
Brown hit his 10 games with Edmonton, so they have to pay his bonus even if he gets traded. So no point trading him imo, just send him down and clear his cap
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 18 at 2:09 p.m.
Thread:
Ken Hollands Last Hurrah
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SharkTank</b></div><div>Some bad history between Holland and Mrazek from their Detroit days. 😬</div></div>
Other option is Fleury, for probably the same price and still under the cap. Chance at a cup > old grudge though for Mrazek maybe?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 2 at 12:58 p.m.
Thread:
bombshell
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ennis</b></div><div>Preds pass. Ceci is nothing more than a cap dump to us and Lavoie is essentially waiver fodder</div></div>
Probably fair. Figured Preds have only Luke Schenn as an NHL RD signed for next year, so worst case they have Ceci play for them and flip him at 2024 TDL.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 8, 2023 at 1:04 p.m.
Thread:
Trying to Save the season
what motivation does SJS have to do that ?
Forum:
NHL Signings
Dec. 19, 2022 at 11:42 a.m.
Thread:
Edmonton Oilers signed Stuart Skinner (3 Years / $2,600,000 AAV)
Contract comes with a full no-shave clause
<img class="for_img" src="https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/photos/stuart-skinner-2023-41.jpg" alt="stuart-skinner-2023-41.jpg">
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 17, 2022 at 2:46 p.m.
Thread:
Sigh
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>yycofred</b></div><div>I didn't say Joey's Only did I? I lived in Edmonton for 3 years.. Joey's is where stay at home rig moms go to get attention and be mad at waitresses. I'm well aware of the sweat panted garbage people that go to Joey's in Edmonton.</div></div>
there are just as many Joey's in Van as in Edmonton lol
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 3, 2022 at 11:11 a.m.
Thread:
Opening Night
that's basically my ideal roster. i <em>hope</em> Holloway plays where you have him, but i doubt that will actually be the case. guess we'll find out soon enough!
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 3, 2022 at 10:08 p.m.
Thread:
Edmonton Oilers signed Kailer Yamamoto (2 Years / $3,100,000 AAV)
nice lil bridge, and he's still RFA when it expires. B+
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 22, 2022 at 5:38 p.m.
Thread:
Killer B Line
amazing trade for Seattle, and that's a great line name. i feel like there aren't many great line names anymore, so i hope this one plays out!
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 6, 2022 at 6:02 p.m.
Thread:
Columbus Blue Jackets signed Adam Boqvist (3 Years / $2,600,000 AAV)
beautiful contract, and he'll still be RFA when it expires. nice work Jarmo
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 2, 2022 at 6:22 p.m.
Thread:
Realistic Sens Off Season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hogie55</b></div><div>Yeah my bad, would sign him to 2x3.25 or something similar. And possibly, but all the reports say that it's a 2nd round pick asking price.</div></div>
2nd round pick might be his <em>value</em>, but i'd be surprised if that's what he's actually traded for. makes 0 sense for the oilers
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 2, 2022 at 6:05 p.m.
Thread:
Realistic Sens Off Season
think you forgot to sign Puljujarvi? and if EDM trades him, it'll be for a roster player and not just a pick imo
Forum:
Mock-Draft
Jun. 20, 2022 at 5:41 p.m.
Thread:
How much are they worth by my GM criteria
awesome post, i like this type of breakdown. thanks!
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 14, 2022 at 3:46 p.m.
Thread:
Tank for Bedard
EDM accepts - no take backs!
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 13, 2022 at 12:20 p.m.
Thread:
Guaranteed Moves
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OhKennyHolland</b></div><div>Kass is likely getting bought out</div></div>
definitely possible
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ecupirate07</b></div><div>Seattle builds though the draft. They wont do this and they have a ton of defense already.</div></div>
none of their D can run a PP or put up offense though. and SEA has 4 2nd round picks, this wouldn't ruin them by any means
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NDoody</b></div><div>I really don't know how there are so many ACGM's with the Oilers signing Husso for $3-4 Mill.
His numbers were great he is on the rise potential level for sure, and there are not going to be a ton of goalies available this summer. MAbye Fluery, Kemper and Campbell, but likely only Fluery makes it to free agency.
If Husso is testing the market you can be sure there are going to be multiple +6$ long-term deals look at Binngton, Markstrom, and Grubarer all as comparables.</div></div>
those are stretches as comparables imo, as all the players had way more proven track records. Husso only has 57 career games, anyone signing him long term for $6M+ would be taking a big risk imo. always possible though
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 10, 2022 at 1:33 p.m.
Thread:
So Long and Thanks for All the Fish
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Funksoljah</b></div><div>Zero interest in Foegele. Sabres can just re-sign Hinostroza for considerably less.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shibbal18</b></div><div>Use Arizona as your default, Buffalo isnt taking whatever cast offs fans think theyre blessing us with</div></div>
Appreciate you guys reading the part where I said "Doesn't have to be BUF"
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 10, 2022 at 12:59 p.m.
Thread:
Wonder How Nemo And Vinny Would Do As A Third Pair
that Barrie trade is asinine - he's not a cap dump. and Nemo/VD would be a brutal 3rd pair
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 27, 2022 at 10:50 p.m.
Thread:
Stanley Cup Winner
just forgot to sign Puljujarvi, or...... ?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 25, 2022 at 12:32 p.m.
Thread:
Montreal Offseason by a Leafs Fan
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>stephane_robidas</b></div><div>EDM's seconds are tied up in conditional moves so they can't move their second for Allen. If that's all Petry can get, then the Habs keep him, IMO. Happy with the Armia and Weber trades though it sucks to not have Webs around. Happy with the Monahan deal but would hope to get a little extra for giving CGY all that relief.
All in all, for a Leaf fan this isn't too bad :D</div></div>
The conditions on their 2nd-round picks will be resolved by the offseason, and unless they make the Finals this year, the picks can be traded. They'd just have to find a way to move Mike Smith before trading for Allen, but the picks likely won't be an issue
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