drewjenkins

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Forum: Armchair-GMJun 19 at 8:51
Thread: Some ideas for the offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Man this is great I've never actually read something so hilariously and obnoxiously wrong before. Like you actually came in here with the intent to tell me "how much better" your leafs are by using stats and miserably failed because you have zero understanding of stats.

Lets start with Johnsson since apparently you think he's a super star.
- Johnsson spent 90% of his season this year on the ice with Auston Matthews, last year about 60% of his time with Matthews and 15% with Tavares = 85%
- He had 8 goals and 21 points this year and was pacing for 15 goals 40 points (not sure how 15 = 20 in your mind)
- This year Johnsson had a total Offensive Point Share of 1.1, and Defensive Point Share of 0.6, last year he had 3.6 OPS, and 1.4 DPS (big drop off this year)
- Last year Johnsson's Goals Above Replacement (GAR) was 7.8 and his Wins Above Replacement (WAR) was 1.5. Meaning he had a good offensive season and some positive impact on the team winning
- This year his GAR was 2.4 and his WAR was 0.4, basically a shell of what it was last year and a barely positive impact player

Now Lets compare the same stats to Mangiapane
- Last year he played 55% of the season with Ryan and 24% with Jankowski, this year he spent 70% of his ice time with Tkachuk (like Matthews is elite but not to the same level)
- He had 8 goals and 13 points in 44 games last year and this year had 17g and 32p, which paces for 20 goals 39 points in a full season. (Sounds familiar)
- Mangiapane's OPS and DPS in 18/19 were 0.8 and 0.8 respectively, this year they were 2.4 and 1.3
- His 18/19 GAR was 6.2 and WAR was 1.2. That's just a little below AJ's from last year
- Mangiapane's GAR this year was 11.7 and his WAR was 2.1. Meaning his offensive contribution this year was significantly higher than Johnsson's was last year

As I said above, Mangiapane is already playing the same role as Johnsson at a similar level of production or better. Making that swap at best a wash and at worst a downgrade.

Now lets talk about Dermott
Sure, his ceiling is not set in stone but do you honestly think he has the potential to be a top pair talent? Could you see him pushing Rielly out of the 1st pair role? No, Dermott is a decent shut down defenseman that is capable of playing on both sides but is stronger on the left. Most team's #4's are roughly around the caliber of Travis Hamonic (who wasn't even Calgary's #4 by season's end). Other examples from playoff caliber teams #4 include; Justin Braun, Brandon Carlo, Kevin Shattenkirk, Brady Skjei/Jake Gardiner, Adam Pelech/Scott Mayfield, John Marino, Radko Gudas, Stephan Johns, Dante Fabbro, Vince Dunn, Dylan Demelo, Adam Larsson, Chris Tanev/Tyler Myers.
I would take a majority of these players before Dermott instantly.
You seem to think a #4 is a failure of a ceiling or something, that's 2nd pair caliber and 17-20 minutes a night of ice time with likely PK time too. A good comparison to Dermott is Montreal's Victor Mete, decent ceiling but not top line caliber.

Now this is the part that cracked me up the most, first you compared Lindgren to Dube then you compared Bracco to Dube, and called him an NHL failure. Like what? in what way is Dube an NHL failure :laugh
Calgary's version of Bracco has a name and it's Matthew Phillips. Neither have very high chances of making the NHL but tear up the AHL, players who are strong offensively in the A but don't have the defensive game to compete in the big leagues. That is Bracco, that is Phillips, that is not Dube. Like honestly where do you even get the idea that Dube is comparable?

As for Lindgren, he's 23 and didn't even get a call up when the Leafs had both Rielly and Muzzin out. This means he is not NHL caliber, Dube played nearly the entire season in Calgary. Lindgren had 9 points this year for the Marlies, who btw were 4th in scoring in the AHL. Dube was over a PPG last year for the Heat and was a PPG this year in his 13 games. He was paired with Lucic and Ryan on the 3rd/4th line and was the entire reason that line was relevant this year. I would expect him to play a much bigger role in his sophomore year and potentially get 2nd line ice time. This image you have of him as an "NHL failure" is so incredibly inaccurate and shows how little research you actually did.

Thanks for making yourself look like an idiot and continuing to make the Leafs fan base look bad.</div></div>

But Johnsson has actually scored 20 goals in a season before right? Why take that away from him because he's only pacing for 15 in his 2nd season?
Bracco has actually had a very strong defensive game in the AHL (he's not big or tough, but he's very good with his stick).
Forum: Site DiscussionJun 17 at 4:26
Thread: Here me out
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jslongo</b></div><div>Im looking for peoples opinions on this.

IMO I see a lot of people in comments complain about how some posts are pointless. I also see a lot of really bad conversations where people just argue for the sake of arguing. I have a feeling this is due to the younger group of people that have joined this site.

I believe if the age restriction is put up, we will be able to have more constructive conversation, rather than a mess of a community.

Or maybe another suggestion is to put an "under-age" mark on their profile.

I also just found out today that you only need to be 13 to be on this site. ( which is fine, its just hockey. But I believe it will clean the site up a lot.)</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>Much as I sympathize with you about a lot of the infantilism on this site, I suspect that most of it comes from that part of the post-college crowd who have been used to being listened to during their learning years and haven't discovered that the world doesn't turn on their opinions. So I'm with <a href="/users/Claesson4Norris" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Claesson4Norris</a></div></div>

I'd have to agree with OldNYIfan ... most of the dumb posts are probably coming from people in their 20's.

My generation is going to tear down the world ... one feeling at a time.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun 17 at 1:48
Thread: Some ideas for the offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KakkoForMauriceRichardAward</b></div><div>CGY turns it down</div></div>

<strong>LMAO. </strong>


<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mitch1_6</b></div><div>Huh? A top 6 LW, mid pair Dman that can play the right side, a high pick, a late pick and a b prospect? For bottom 6 forwards? I’d scoop it as CGy</div></div>

<strong>It's very bad for the Leafs TBH. </strong>


<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Johnsson is a middle 6 LW not a top 6 LW.
Mangiapane is already playi gthe same role at a similar or better caliber.
Dermott is a bottom 4 LD with a ceiling of a #4 on the 2nd pair.
Lindgren is a C level prospect that can become a #7.
Dube is Calgary's #1 forward prospect. This trade is awful for the Flames</div></div>

<strong>Johnsson </strong>scored 20 goals as a 23-24 year old rookie (on pace for similar numbers this year). Are there 190 other top-6 forwards doing better?
<strong>Dermott's </strong>ceiling is unknown at this point (since his NHL career has spanned from age 20-22). And he's already better than most #4 defensemen.
<strong>Lindgren </strong>basically the same level prospect as Dube (except he hasn't failed at the NHL level yet). Dube is Calgary's Bracco (but he's their only option).

Also, I like how you limited Dermott's potential but not Dube's.
Even though Dermott has had a much better career thus far.


<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KakkoForMauriceRichardAward</b></div><div>Dube is a 3rd liner as we speak but he's got the potential to score 20-25 goals one day... AKA top 6 forward.</div></div>

<strong>Andreas Johnsson </strong> already scored 20 goals in 73 games last season.
When he was 23-24 ... So isn't he already a top-6 forward by your logic?
Forum: Armchair-GMJun 17 at 1:17
Thread: Bottom Six changes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>You actually think that the Rangers would trade Adam Fox and/or Igor Shesterkin?

I guess we gave up on trying to make realistic trades.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>clapperzzz11</b></div><div>And in the same trade....</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Stanley_Cup_To_Manhattan</b></div><div>LMFAO</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shesterkin_next_GOAT</b></div><div>Holy crap that trade is awfull... Both fox and shesterkin will not be traded</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shesterkin_next_GOAT</b></div><div>and I wouldn't give more than a 7th for bracco</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>zyyyp</b></div><div>Bracco is not worth a 3rd lol</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KakkoForMauriceRichardAward</b></div><div>That package starts with Matthews and Sandin... sorry mate but that's in the top 5 of the worst trades I've ever seen here</div></div>

<strong>Igor Shesterkin
Adam Fox</strong>

Neither of these things are worth Kapanen.
Leafs say no.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun 17 at 1:08
Thread: Value moves
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Stanley_Cup_To_Manhattan</b></div><div>Why would the Coyotes trade a prospect for a 14th F....</div></div>

Malgin was drafted in 2015 and started this season as a 22 year old with 50 points in 150 NHL games.
He's definitely more valuable than a 7th round pick who just broke a point per game in the OHL (as a 20 year old).


<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Easy no from Calgary that top 20 pick is off the table. Kapanen can fetch a late first in this draft, definitely not top 20 though</div></div>

<strong>Kaspari Kapanen - Even Strength Points Per 82-Games:</strong>

2018-19 (22 years old) = 44 Even Strength Points
2019-20 (23 years old) = 40 Even Strength Points

- That's in roughly 13 even-strength minutes per game (with lots of PK time and no PP time).
- It also projects to 60+ total points if he's given a full time spot on a teams power-play unit.
- He's very solid defensively and is much more valuable than people here want to admit.
- And his contract adds even more value ($3,200,000 x 3 years with an RFA expiry at 25).

<strong>Compare that to someone like Zucker (Return = 1st + 2nd + Galchenyuk). </strong>

2018-19 (27 years old) = 28 Even Strength Points
2019-20 (28 years old) = 40 Even Strength Points

- He's 5 years older and in his late prime.
- His cap-hit is $2,300,000 higher with similar term.
- He was getting more ES ice-time than Kapanen.

<strong>I could prove the exact same point with a bunch of older guys like:</strong>

- Gabriel Pageau (Return = 1st + 2nd + 3rd)
- Blake Coleman (Return = 1st + 1st)

<strong>But Kapanen's ES production is more in line with guys like:</strong>

- Barzal
- Keller
- Monahan
- DeBrincat
- Seguin

<strong>The only major difference is that they get PP ice-time.</strong>
Forum: Armchair-GMJun 11 at 10:41
Thread: Make me an offer
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheAlien</b></div><div> Kapanen, Dermott, and Hyman are worth maybe a 3rd each, so ya they don't have much value</div></div>

<strong>So you're saying:</strong>

0.54 points per game @ $1,800,000 x 2 years = <strong>Blake Coleman</strong> (28) = Traded for a 1st + 1st
0.38 points per game @ $1,000,000 x 2 years = <strong>Barclay Goodrow</strong> (27) = Traded for a 1st

<strong>But these guys: </strong>

0.73 points per game @ $2,200,000 x 2 years = <strong>Zach Hyman</strong> (27) = Only worth a 3rd
0.54 points per game @ $3,200,000 x 3 years = <strong>Kap Kapanen</strong> (23) = Only worth a 3rd

Not to mention that they're basically the toughest and best defensive forwards on the Leafs.
Or that they both kill penalties while getting virtually zero power-play time to pad their stats.
Or that Kapanen is 4-5 years younger than the rest and expires as an RFA in three years.

<strong>They're both worth more than a 1st and you should apologize for your ignorance.</strong>
Forum: Armchair-GMJun 10 at 2:50
Thread: Fair Matthews to VGK trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>zyyyp</b></div><div>TOR trades their young dynamic point per game franchise C and their biggest weakness is left unaddressed...</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KakkoForMauriceRichardAward</b></div><div>Stone and Karlsson are very good at defense, if you can't solve it with d-men then solve it with very good 2 way forwards</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>If I'm VGK I'd decline this honestly. As good as Matthews is, he just isn't worth two of their best forwards and a good prospect for that matter.

Also considering the fact that both Karlsson and Stone are inked to max term deals, moving them for a guy with only 4 years left seems bad asset management.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AFOX10900</b></div><div><a href="/users/Lights" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Lights</a> found another... Why did I click on this</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lights</b></div><div>Only reason I could see Toronto not doing this is due to age gap. Haven't checked up on AM recently. I know Stone is like a top 5-10 player though.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>StoneFan</b></div><div>MERCI!!!</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood</b></div><div>When you have a franchise centre, you don't trade him. Ever.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AFOX10900</b></div><div>Ik a guy who debates between him (Stone) and Couts at 1-2</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>firezfurx</b></div><div>That's actually factually incorrect, he is quite good at defense. He is certainly a top-10 defensemen in the NHL corrently.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>Ditto, a player like Matthews does not get traded.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KakkoForMauriceRichardAward</b></div><div>So cut the crap you’re in no business to talk I don’t even think VGK takes this it was just to show 34’s value.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>I'm not surprised to see this comment from a Leafs fan.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>firezfurx</b></div><div>Yes but Rielly has adequate defense while being dominant offensively. The whole "Rielly has no defense" thing is a bit of a myth.</div></div>

This deal might work out to be fairly even for the next 2-3 seasons.
But it will likely look terrible for Toronto for the 5 season after that.

THEE YEARS FROM NOW:

- <strong>Mark Stone</strong> will be in his 30's and signed for another 5 seasons at $9,500,000 (He's great right now but we don't know how long his prime will last)
- <strong>Will Karlsson</strong> will be in his 30's and signed for another 5 seasons at $6,000,000 (He's been trending down in GPG and PPG for for 2 seasons already)
- <strong>Peyton Krebs</strong> may or may not be an impact player at NHL level (he hasn't played a pro game yet so I won't make any predictions).

AT THE SAME TIME:

- <strong>Auston Matthews</strong> will be 25 and entering his prime with 2 years left on his contract (and could potentially be a top 2-3 player in the NHL).

It makes zero sense for Toronto unless Stone + Karlsson are a massive improvement on Matthews for the next 2-3 years (and they're not).
Forum: Armchair-GMJun 10 at 2:21
Thread: Our best players from each position ranked
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafs_and_Sens_Fan</b></div><div>If Deangelo is better than Trouba why should he take a cent less?</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KakkoForMauriceRichardAward</b></div><div>Younger</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sagecoll</b></div><div>But also that’s ...not how contract negotiations work...</div></div>

<strong>"I know you're better but you're younger so take less" </strong>

Is that what the Rangers should say to Deangelo and his agent?
After Deangelo already took a below market value bridge-deal?
After Deangelo almost lead all defensemen in goals and assists?
While Deangelo is nearly 25 and only two years from UFA status?

<strong>Has that argument worked for any team in the past 12 months? </strong>

$11,600,000 x 5 = <strong>Matthews</strong> (20) = Higher than Tavares cap-hit after a bidding war.
- $9,500,000 x 8 = <strong>Vasilevsky</strong> (24) = Higher than every UFA goaltender except Price.
- $8,000,000 x 8 = <strong>Chabot</strong> (22)
- $7,200,000 x 7 = <strong>Connor</strong> (22) = Higher than Scheifele + Ehlers by over $1,000,000.
- $7,200,000 x 7 = <strong>Hischier</strong> (20) = With less points per game than Deangelo at FWD.
- $7,200,000 x 8 = <strong>Keller</strong> (20)
- $7,000,000 x 3 = <strong>Tkachuk</strong> (22) = Higher than Gaudreau's cap on a bridge deal.

High end RFA's have stopped accepting a lower cap-hit than their UFA equivalents.
And to compensate, most UFA's are now forced to choose between cap-hit + term.
Deangelo will probably get $8,000,000+ on a long-term deal or go straight to UFA.