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dylanstoik
dylanstoik
Member Since
Nov. 21, 2018
Favourite Team
Edmonton Oilers
Forum Posts
78
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 15, 2022 at 3:07 p.m.
Thread:
USA2022
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jedihonesy</b></div><div>such a good team. Id probably remove Pavelski, Tuch and Terry, and replace them with Kane, Gaudreau, JT Miller/Keller/Debrincat. Rather see the best players rather than trying to get chemistry from NHL teammates.</div></div>
zero chance Pavelski isnt on this team, likely the captain.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 6, 2019 at 4:49 p.m.
Thread:
Doubt the Kadri Trouba thing is real but lets see if it works
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>draft_em_sign_em_trade_em</b></div><div>Look at Hossa's contract, Yotes will not trade that contract for even a 1st Round pick, it only costs 1 million in real dollars but eats up almost 6 million of the salary cap space.</div></div>
exactly
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 6, 2019 at 4:28 p.m.
Thread:
Doubt the Kadri Trouba thing is real but lets see if it works
Trouba for Kadri is a hard no from Winnipeg, Trouba has much more value. Why would Toronto trade a serviceable top 9 forward (Marleau) and a 2nd round pick for a player who will likely never play in the NHL again? Don't say its for cap relief because they would save hardly any money, as Marleau has a 6.25 million dollar contract that expires at the end of the season, while Hossa makes 5.275 million per season and is signed through 2020-21.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 28, 2019 at 12:03 p.m.
Thread:
Cap Space and Trades
Why do you have everybody signing the exact same contract? Kinkaid and Chiasson are definitely not worth the same, Kinkaid struggled all season and Chiasson is coming off a career year (22 goals) Both the Russell and Kassian trades make no sense at all.
Forum:
NHL Signings
May 26, 2019 at 6:55 p.m.
Thread:
Dallas Stars signed Esa Lindell (6 Years / $5,800,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>I don't really understand point share enough to effectively comment on it, but it seems the overall point share is what is important (going by the H-R website's description here), which puts Lindell much further down.
Either way, it is one stat and should not be the only one you use or look at, when combined with the rest of the data you'd be hard pressed to say Lindell is the top DFD, or even a top one considering he gets outshot and outshot from more dangerous positions when on the ice.</div></div>
Actually for a defensive defensman like he is, defensive point shares would obviously be more important.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 26, 2019 at 2:40 a.m.
Thread:
Opening roster
Peterson at 4 mil for 3 years?!?!:tearsofjoy he will probably get around 1 mil for 1 or 2 years I would guess.
Forum:
NHL Signings
May 26, 2019 at 2:35 a.m.
Thread:
Dallas Stars signed Esa Lindell (6 Years / $5,800,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>Genuinely curious, what defensive rating was he the highest in?
Oops, forgot about these posts lol
Here are the stats for Pesce and Theodore. (All the picks have Theodore as I was making a comparison and these are what I have saved.
<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5Mvn0EU0AIhlI-.png" alt="D5Mvn0EU0AIhlI-.png">
Here is Giordano
<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5Mvnz-UwAEx1ft.png" alt="D5Mvnz-UwAEx1ft.png">
Here is a certified OFD for comparison
<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5Mvn0SUwAAUy8U.png" alt="D5Mvn0SUwAAUy8U.png">
And another one
<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5Gd20NUcAAkVxE.png" alt="D5Gd20NUcAAkVxE.png">
And here are other underlying metrics
<img class="for_img" src="https://assets1.sportsnet.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Defensive-D.png" alt="Defensive-D.png">
Tl;dr
You're wrong.
1) The point is to figure out averages, to roughly predict future play. The numbers can never be accurate down to the individual play as they'd be meaningless as you pointed out, but the numbers essentially count the little plays. If a player is making a lot of little plays that help you win, chances are they are going to continue to do so.
2) The problem with the +/- stat is that it doesn't differentiate between you actually helping to make that stat, or if they are just a passenger on the line watching their team mates do it all. Ron Hainsey is a perfect example of this as he lead the Leafs in +/- this year on a pair with Rielly (who had a Norris calibre offensive season).
3) Blatantly false. To gain a + you don't even have to be in the play, to gain corsi you have to personally take a shot.
4) Sometimes teams win despite players (overcoming a poor goalie or a hot goalie overcoming a lousy team performance being the most common example.
5) Corsi effectively measures possession of the puck (as you said). I can not fathom how you don't see that not allowing the other team to have the puck (in either zone) would help you win. That is literally (<---- used correctly here) saying that shooting more and keeping the other team to fewer shots has no bearing on winning.
6) That is why you use more than one stat. No one is saying to ONLY use corsi to evaluate players. xGF for example measures shot danger by factoring in distance, where it was shot from etc. Also sometimes you get beat by a hot goalie. You can dominate all game but just can't beat him (Kristers Gudlevskis being a somewhat famous example), that doesn't mean you didn't dominate the game and if you play that way 82 games a year + playoffs you are going to win most of them (which is the whole point of tracking the stats, to get players who play better and to make systems that work better).
Additionally shooting % can wildly fluctuate. Sometimes you can take good shot after good shot and just not score (for a variety of reasons). One of the earliest development in the stats community (not even advanced stats, just stats in general) was that shooting % can vary and not to overreact to its variance. Nazem Kadri is a perfect example of this.
Either way none of that discounts corsi or underlying metrics as a legitimate tool to evaluate players.
7) See the above, especially the hot goalie bit.
8) Simply not true. Corsi is a stat used to evaluate possession. It is measured by shots taken, not how long you literally hold the puck for. In order to affect corsi you literally have to have the puck and take a shot. I always find it amusing that those who argue against advanced stats often have a less than full understanding of those stats they so vehemently oppose.
9) That is actually the point. No one (credible) is saying these are the only stats and to not use all others, or forgo the eye test completely. They simply measure other aspects of the game. I always like to put it this way: Normal stats measure outcomes, advanced stats measure the process of getting those outcomes.
10) That is literally what they do. Normal stats measure outcomes, advanced stats measure the process of getting those outcomes. They are the eye test crudely put into numbers.
11) Sometimes you get outplayed and still win. This is the age of parity, it happens. When building a team all you can do is give yourself the best chance to win year after year, and constructing a team that dominates on average is the best way to do it.
12) No one is arguing against that. We are saying that underlying metrics are a tool to be used in conjunction with things like the eye test. You are human and only have two eyes, you're going to miss things. The underlying metrics help to show you what you missed, or even accentuate what you saw.
13) untrue see rest of comment (especially 12).
A side note: You are showing your age here. You double spaced all of your sentences lol (that practice has fallen out of use). Not hating; just find it funny.
Sorry it took so long to get back, I honestly just forgot about this post lol.
Edit for additional notes:
1) +/- is bad because it mashes together a bunch of somewhat random stats (5v5, 5v4 etc). It gives no context to anything (whether the player actually did anything), which is the principle thing you are arguing about here. That is what advanced stats are, some of them are basically +/- (corsi is +/- for shots) but specialized to give you a more detailed look.
2) Funny you mention faceoff% as an important stat. Statistically (not underlying metrics, just plain old % and counting) they are largely unimportant. Thats not to say they are never important, just that they are less important than you would think. You also mention what it should be changed to (which is what underlying metrics are for other stats).</div></div>
Defensive point shares- Hockey Reference
Forum:
NHL Signings
May 25, 2019 at 8:35 p.m.
Thread:
Dallas Stars signed Esa Lindell (6 Years / $5,800,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Icegirl</b></div><div>Lindell is really, really bad in a vacuum. He's got strong chemistry with John Klingberg, but with anybody else on the right side, he's completely useless. His stretch from November-December without Klinger was one of the worst months of hockey I've ever seen from any player. Lindell is the very definition of a passenger. Away from Klinger, he's about as good as Roman Polak. Seriously.</div></div>
You are seriously stupid, he had the highest defensive rating in the NHL. He’s an excellent defensman with our without Klingberg, watch hockey before comment ridiculous stuff like that.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 25, 2019 at 8:19 p.m.
Thread:
Offer sheet for Kapanen Panarin short deal
Panarin for 14 million is laughable. He will get between 9-11 million, closer to 9 I would say
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 25, 2019 at 3:18 a.m.
Thread:
2019-2020 Hughes RFA UFA Trades
Who in there right mind would sign Kapanen to a 6 million dollar contract for 8 years:tearsofjoy I could see a deal more like 4 mil per season for 3 years.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 25, 2019 at 1:04 a.m.
Thread:
Kessel Oilers And a Lucic dump
Sekera is a capable NHL defensman. Trading the 8th overall selection as well as a quality defensman for a 3rd is an extremely stupid idea. Sekera’s contract is an overpay, but definitely not worth trading a 1st just to rid his contract.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 24, 2019 at 9:32 p.m.
Thread:
20-21
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wingert41326</b></div><div>You didn't even read the post details. This is 2020-2021 season. projecting moves this off-season as well as breakouts from young guns. FYI Skinner will sign nothing less than 8mil this off-season, check your sources.</div></div>
There is currently 23 players earning 8 million per season or more. So why would any team pay a winger who’s never cracked 70 points and 1 year ago was under fire after a rough season in Carolina 8 million per season? Don’t tell me to check my sources when you all clearly uneducated. For example, Brad Marchand signed a 6.125 million dollar contract recently, he’s on of the best wingers in the NHL. If any team pays Skinner 8 million dollars they are ridiculously stupid, that’s just the way it is.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 24, 2019 at 12:10 p.m.
Thread:
20-21
Skinner and Trouba are gross overpays, both should get between 6.5-7.5 million per season. Blackwood is an overpay, he was solid in limited viewing in the NHL this season but has struggled in the AHL, to early to give him 4 yeas at 3.75, Vatanen at 5.5 is also ridiculous as he struggled this past season, and at no point in his career was worth 5.5, especially for 5 years.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 24, 2019 at 12:01 p.m.
Thread:
Starts with Skinner
That is an awful trade for Tampa Bay, Point is one of the top up and coming young forwards in the NHL, every team in the NHL would be fighting to pick him up if that was all it will take. You also over-payed all 4 of Skinner, Tanev, Chariot and Nemeth and gave them too much term as well.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 28, 2019 at 2:25 p.m.
Thread:
galaxy brain benning
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>First off, I said elite transition winger, which he objectively is.
Second off, lol. Just ****ing lol.
I have debunked this take over and over on this site, the entire narrative is bull****.</div></div>
Yet another biased leafs fan! You guys are a special type of stupid.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 27, 2019 at 7:51 p.m.
Thread:
galaxy brain benning
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>Well then I guess we will have to just keep out elite transition winger then.
Ohhhh nooooo</div></div>
Nylander is miles away from being elite, he was quite bad all season, he should have focused more on his on ice play then his contract.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 27, 2019 at 11:39 a.m.
Thread:
galaxy brain benning
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>So you want the Leafs to significantly downgrade to get two 3rd line wingers (maybe one can be a 2-3LW) a 2nd and some prospects (who I admittedly do not know who they are)?
We'll pass</div></div>
You are really dumb if you think nylander is worth more then Baerstchi, Virtanen, Gaudette, and Lind and a 2nd round pick, not a chance that any team would give up that much for Nylander.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 26, 2019 at 1:52 p.m.
Thread:
galaxy brain benning
Those are all awful trades. especially the Nylander trade, Vancouver would be getting fleeced.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Apr. 24, 2019 at 3:25 p.m.
Thread:
Pittsburgh Penguins signed Oula Palve (1 Year / $925,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>you are so arrogant it's not even funny. If you could even put that rambling thought process together you would realize a guy who hasn't even sniffed the AHL level and is 27 isn't coming in with a ceiling higher than 4C. But keep yapping</div></div>
Dude just shut up, you’re irrelevant. Palve is very skilled player with NHL potential. That’s just facts
Forum:
NHL Signings
Apr. 24, 2019 at 3:15 p.m.
Thread:
Pittsburgh Penguins signed Oula Palve (1 Year / $925,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>Sure, in your mind he's the better player. Which is why as an undrafted player he wasn't going to apply to the NHL draft and go 2nd overall right?
Your thought process is mind numbing. Both years his play improved due to his linemates. He's not a scorer, he's a "playmaker" which basically says, he passes the puck to someone else capable of putting it in the net and collects a point for doing so.
Which is why everyone looks at him as little more that 4C competition and Kaapo is looked at as a 2nd over all pick and corner stone winger to build around. But hey, clearly he scored more points. *eye roll*</div></div>
You are ridiculously dumb?. Your comment dissing playmakers shows how little you know about hockey. I’ve read scoring reports on Palve, none say his ceiling is a 4C, the reason Kakko is a projected number 2 pick is because he’s producing elite level offense at 17, Palve is 27 so obviously he’s not gonna be as valued. Like i said do at least a bit of research before rambling.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Apr. 24, 2019 at 3:00 p.m.
Thread:
Pittsburgh Penguins signed Oula Palve (1 Year / $925,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>Yeah I'm sure you are an "expert" who watched every game.
Multiple scouting reports have him as at TOPS a 4C coming into the NHL. With several scouts noting how his production only improved with better line mates.
When your line mates have to be Kaapo to improve, you aren't going far.</div></div>
see that's the thing, he didn't need Kakko to improve, because he put up identical numbers the season before with a different team. He also put up better numbers then Kakko, so saying Kakko carried him makes zero sense at all. At least do a little bit of research about a player before trying to talk about him.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Apr. 24, 2019 at 2:25 p.m.
Thread:
Pittsburgh Penguins signed Oula Palve (1 Year / $925,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>otherwise stated as, he's the guy Kaako carried on his back?</div></div>
Too say Kaako carried Palve is very ignorant and shows you are uneducated on the subject. Palve had 50 points in 55 games last season in the Liiga, and 51 points in 53 games last season, both years he led his team in scoring. He is definitely not "carried" by Kaako in anyway.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 17, 2019 at 11:59 a.m.
Thread:
Tampa Dallas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BurgerBoss</b></div><div>DAL declines. Russell's negative value, Honka isn't.
TB also declines. Miller's worth 1st+ and Callahan will not waive his NMC for EDM.</div></div>
Russell does not have negative value buddy, hes a solid 2/3rd pairing dman, contract is a little high but definitely not negative value
Forum:
Mock-Draft
Apr. 16, 2019 at 2:51 p.m.
Thread:
2018 DRAFT
this is literally the worst mock draft of all time
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 25, 2019 at 6:41 p.m.
Thread:
New EDM scenario at the draft
Russell isn't an awful contract, Sekera's deal is worse.
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