exo2769

exo2769
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Jul 28, 2015
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Chicago Blackhawks
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Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 12:58 pm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>The Leafs will be fine. Injury bugs happen to every team. Agreed that (while it's hard to see right now if you're a Leafs fan) it's better to get this stuff out now. Heck, you're getting to learn (even more) about your other players on the team. You already know what Tavares/Marner are going to bring. Giving other guys chances on the PP and pressure packed minutes should theoretically be a good thing in the long run. Nylander's getting a HUGE opportunity here too and taking full advantage of it.</div></div>

Best post I've read on the leafs start to date.

The season isn't lost yet, and things could get turned around still, but even if they don't the current situation does give alot of guys more opportunity, and more importantly, its challenging alot of internal assumptions management and coaching staff might be operating from i.e. do they need to change the way they game plan? Change their systems/structure? Is this the right coach? What holes do they have? Who are the real leaders on the team? Are they gonna roll over? Who steps up? Can they fix their god awful special teams? Is their defensive system even worth defending at this point? Etc etc.

I think it's a great time to ask all those questions and more. And there's no better time to experiment. But if they go all steady on the rudder with this thing I think it's a real lost opportunity.

Bright spots for me so far have been Dermot/Holl, Soupman (on and off) 4c Goat (on and off) Kerfoot before he went to the dentist, seeing AM and Nylander getting their jam back (on and off), and watching AM hit guys last night.. he can do that!?

If he can make that part of his game on a consistent basis he really might come to dominate games on a regular basis. And if he does start to play with an edge it might just inspire the rest of the team to follow suit. And then my dreams of the Goat playing angry might just come true..

The whole thing so far reminds me of the lost season that Tampa had a few seasons back when they were riddled with injuries and they missed the playoffs. Nothing wrong with a little adversity and disappointment. It's usually a good thing in the long run.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 4:33 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 4:18 pm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>I agree with most of what was said in the description. Most of those bullet points are just different illustrations of line combinations being the problem. I agree with you about Kualbik. He would be GREAT with Saad/Toews. I want to see that next game for sure.

I would tend to agree with <a href="/users/HatterTParty" target="_blank">@HatterTParty</a> about Nylander and Dach with respect to no shame being on the 3rd and 4th line. Our reasons as to why we agree with Nylander/Dach being on the lower lines are different...I'm not seeing Smith being better than Dach… BUT, Dach and Nylander and finding more success in the bottom 6. They're scoring points and heck come playoff time 3rd and 4th lines are huge difference makers if they can contribute. If those guys can succeed as rookies down there...I do believe that's a good thing both this year AND the long run. They're both skill guys and can be in the top 6 at some point, but lets not force it. Keep the opposing team's Shutdown lines...FAR FAR away from the rookies. Kane/Debrincat/Strome can handle shutdown players.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Stan_Bowman</b></div><div>I don’t like Dach only playing 10 minutes a night. I think he would benefit from seeing a bit more.</div></div>

Just for the record, I’m not saying Smith is better than dach. That’s definitely not the case. However, I would argue that smith works much harder than dach. That mostly can be attributed to his experience and dach’s youth. That being said, it stands as the reason I believe dach is starting to get better results.

Also, the minutes issue. This is an issue on Dach I will absolutely agree with everyone on. I do believe dach needs more minutes, regardless of his performance or how the coach feels. Simply put, at 18, he should be playing every second he can get. This is by far the most vital component in his development. I’m not saying he’s gonna be harmed in his development by this, but I am saying I am gonna be concerned going forward if this trend continues. As far as I’m concerned, if this was always the plan (7-10 minutes per night), then why did keep him up at all??? I really fear part of the answer is Stan fearing for his job and needing the pick to matter now, but this isn’t the way.

The combo of these two topics brings me to another tiny issue that is festering in my head. I know I show very little faith in dach. However, one thing i still haven’t been sold on with him is his ability to play in the top six. Not because his skill isn’t good enough, it really is. However, I still see him lacking the work rate it takes to dominate and control games. Smith and carpenter were PERFECT linemates for Dach because they handled so much of the work for him. Obviously, the 2nd is untouchable. I’m still hoping that top line is gonna be toews saad kuba. If one of them is injured, though, I really don’t think dach is good enough with his work ethic (YET) to replace them.

Admittingly, this is something I’ve feared for a while. Dach’s work ethic is something that been lacking since we drafted him. I still don’t think he’ll get any faster than he is now, but mix that with his work ethic, I don’t know how he can take over games the way they want him to. That’s what a top six player needs to do.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 3:00 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 1:58 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 9:28 am
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 5:41 pm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>So remember that time I asked what these fictitious bridge deals would look like? And then asked what would these contracts mean when they all needed new ones at the same time as Andersen and Rielly? I am still waiting for an answer to those questions. That is the future I keep talking about and one none of you guys want to consider or comment on. I wonder why that is?</div></div>

listen I'm having a conversation with you im not talking down to you. I literally just typed it out above yet youre telling me Im not reading. with the three year deal at an aav of 8-9 you shave about 2 million off your cap now. BY SIGNING MATTHEWS THE WAY DUBAS DID YOU DIDNT GET ANY CAP SAVINGS. ZERO. NONE. NIENTE.

so by this time, you should have saved 2.6 on marner and roughly 2.5 on matthews that frees up 5.1 for someone. Then you have to trade away someone because you cant have a roster of 7 figure and 8 figure guys all over the lineup. when the cap goes up you can sign your guys and then when they are locked up you can forecast. right now you cant forecast because matthews can walk

I'm not the gm of the leafs and i said dubas is doing great navigating the cap with the pieces he has. Regardless is does not change the fact that the matthews contract was a lost negotiation. I didnt say hes not worth it and i didnt say hes a bad player i said dubas lost the negotiation.

you have a 93 MM cap hit with a 21 man roster and 5 unrestricted d men. Good luck dude, dubas is gonna need it.

and yes if he signed a 3 year deal then he give reilly a contract at the same time. andersen the year before. doesnt change the fact the cap is going up and by then youll have some certainty over the lineup
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 5:15 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 3:37 pm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>I don't think a team is cap trouble when they don't have any bad contracts. Matthews, Tavares, Nylander and Marner will all earn their money, because they are indeed star players. In TO's case, bridge deals would have been terrible. In 2 years, Adnersen needs a contract, in 3 years Rielly needs a contract. If TO would have given their guys short deals like most of the other RFA's got, would have made for massive issues later on. Plus what kind of long term money would have been thrown around if they had the money to throw around? Who is even available? When you judge Dubas's work form the perspective of comparing his deals to mainly Point's contract, its both short sighted and an incorrect way to look at it. So many GM's in this league operate for this season and that's all they really seem to care about. How do I make this season a success? That is where guys make all the wrong decisions. Overpay this FA because we need a 2nd Pair LHD and when that doesn't work. Dubas hasn't done that, he has the 4th youngest team in the NHL and zero bad contracts. His tenure is still in its infancy and should be looked at from both a short term and long term. Short term, he didn't want to go with short term bridge deals, because they will without a doubt end up causing bigger problems later on. Long term, they have no bad contracts and lots of flexibility. Could he have been better? Maybe, who knows, but to say he's been terrible is just ignorant. To suggest that Lou would have been better is an absolute joke, Shanahan axing him saved this core's chances of winning together. Imagine what he would have done with Nylander's contract? He would have traded him for some vet with sand paper and used the money he saved to resign Komarov.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Matthews is 6th in the league in scoring and is heating up. I am not sure how you can say its a terrible contract unless you think he's just a 2C which he clearly isn't. He's the best player in TO who also has Tavares, Marner, Rielly and Nylander and its not close. He's also what 22 only? There is not concern over the Matthews contract. Time and time again, stars getting star money is never a problem, depth guys getting too much is terrible and Dubas has not overpaid a depth guy once. He doesn't sign the Komarov's of the league to 4 year deals at way more than he deserves. TO is always under the microscope and everyone wants their say and unfortunately that results in way too much speculation and just talk from "Hockey Media Guys" to analyze everything and that all gets out of control.

This season its worse than ever. Take away the 2nd half of the back to backs, and TO is one of the top teams in the league in most statistical categories. The team hasn't been playing their best and the reports that follow this team are borderline bipolar. One thing goes right and people go crazy, but you still get all sorts of reports talking about all these perceived flaws that mean TO is crap. Most of these reports ignore advance stats, or results in general.

The reality of the situation is, TO is a very good team. They have been getting better and better each game, apart from the 2nd half of back to back, and at this point there are only a couple of issues that need to be sorted out.

1) The PK is really not good, I am wondering if they need to use their top guys more on the PK. Give Matthews and Tavares a chance, they can win puck battles and faceoffs.
2) Ceci almost needs to be traded, he is a very weak link on the blueline and gets scored on a lot.
3) The backup just hasn't been good enough (not entirely his fault but still no results)

If those are the only 3 things that are actually problematic, TO is in great shape.</div></div>

To reiterate my point - I think Auston Matthews is great, he is a 1C. I don't think he's McDavid, the fact of the matter is McDavid's contract is so so sooooo much better than Matthews and thats the issue I have with it. And because everything is connected it drove up marners (which again is fine because they are worth it - but signing 8x8 wouldve been much better lol).

McDavid took a contract that is great for him and helps the team.
Matthews did not take a contract that helps the team but he took a phenomenal contract for himself. A good contract would have been a 3 year bridge at significantly lower AAV with a very high QO, or 8 years at his current $'s to 12MM.

Instead his contract directly contributes to cap concerns here and now, as well as going forward. He walks himself to free agency to collect an even bigger bag. That is the issue I have with his contract and therefore Dubas's negotiating

He is the cornerstone of the franchise as you mentioned, hes the top guy. Now with a new tv deal hes ready to cash in again and put you right back into cap problems

and still to dubas's credit, hes done a fantastic job navigating the cap to this point
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 2:24 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 10:13 am
Forum: Armchair-GMSun at 11:12 pm