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fangm

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Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 9 at 6:44 p.m.
Thread: Tre Sucks
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dannibalcorpse</b></div><div>Maroon &amp; Tanev had some control over their destinations so you can't just assume that a "better" offer would have brought them to Toronto.

Also, considering that a big part of this plan involves someone taking TJ Brodie off your hands with 0 retention makes it kind of a moot point.</div></div>

Almost every Jersey fan leading up to the deadline said they would take Brodie with no retention they currently (post deadline) have $11M in cap space and a D core that looks like:

Siegentaler - Marino
Bahl - Smith
Hughes - Nemec
MacDermid - DeSimone

I know Brodie has taken a step back this year but three of those 8 aren't top 6 NHL D. Two of them play as forwards regularly enough that it's a listed position for them. The other was claimed off waiver two months ago and hasn't played a game since.
Forum: Toronto Maple LeafsMar. 7 at 10:47 p.m.
Thread: 50Leafs 2023 2024 Season Discussion Part 5 - TDL additions (Go Big or Go Small)
I know it's high risk but thoughts on trying to pry Korczak from Vegas.

He's a 6'3, 201lb RHD who is 23. Played 26 games this year and crushed his minutes defensively. Much better than Boosh or Edm. He's currently in the minors. Looks like he could be a solid #3/4 DFD RHD in a couple years. But even now he seems like a candidate to do what Byram did a few years ago or Harley did last year just having a crazy playoff run despite not being an NHL regular.

They are rumoured to be looking for more help upfront. Would Jarnkrok be a piece that interests them? Maybe McMann if we aren't sure we can resign him? Robertson if they want someone with a scoring touch?

Would allow us to trade Lili and Brodie then run a d core of:

Rielly - Boosh
Benoit - McCabe
EDM - Korczak
Gio

Might not be highly skilled but you'd pay a price for your goals.

If Brodie gets moved after their Silverberg could be a good replacement for Jarnkrok. Likely gets a 6th at most since he's at $5.5M and Anaheim is out of retention slots. He's had crazy good analytics in a bottom 6 role this year would likely perfectly replace Jarnkrok just without the ability to slide him into the Top 6 but you can do that with Tavares.
Forum: Toronto Maple LeafsMar. 7 at 6:31 p.m.
Thread: 50Leafs 2023 2024 Season Discussion Part 5 - TDL additions (Go Big or Go Small)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LeafsFanForSomeReason</b></div><div>They didn't secure him though. It's still a risk he goes to FA and as MatthewsFan said it sounds like it may be an AHL deal.

At the end of the day, I don't imagine this works out poorly. But I've been pretty skeptical of Brad's pick management so far, and seeing what we've been able to do in rounds 5-7 the last few years (Holmberg, Grebenkin, Voit, Tverberg, Chadwick already got an ELC...) I'm not really in the same boat as everybody who just seems to have the "meh who cares" attitude about draft picks. Would just hate to see another one out the door for nothing.</div></div>

Yea it's a stupid move. The guy isn't going to sign now because he isn't graduated and is in his final year so he's waiting till end of the school year.

By then he's 3 months from being a UFA, he gets zero extra games with Toronto by signing. Why wouldn't he just wait till the summer and pick his team.

Unless the Leafs plan on offering him a spot in the NHl to burn a year on his deal like they did with Abruzzese so he's one year closer to a non-ELC contract which could help him make an extra few hundred thousand over his career. But then this guy is playing NHL games this season.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 7 at 4:33 p.m.
Forum: Toronto Maple LeafsMar. 7 at 3:19 p.m.
Thread: 50Leafs 2023 2024 Season Discussion Part 5 - TDL additions (Go Big or Go Small)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>He hasnt looked bad at all lul


Here is how that pairing stacks relative to other defensive pairs (min 100 TOI) the Leafs have iced from 2021-22 to 2023-24:

- 53.2 xGF% (14th)
- 60.2 HDCF% (6th)
- 41.9 Off. Zone Start% (6th hardest usage)

In the 3 games they have played together

CF% = 62.9%
XGF 1.66
XGA = 0.66
HDCF = 7
HDCA = 2

Still early but a very promising sign. And dont be looking at him getting charged by Rempe lul. That was a play that should have got the kid thrown out or sent to the box for 5 and a game but nah leaf bias.

Rielly has been once again proving he does well with these guys and both have basically picked up where they left off as a pairing</div></div>

Fair just looked at the numbers and you are right, he's been crushing it. Didn't pass the eye test for me but the numbers prove me wrong. Likely just some bias from the few big hits he took and the glaring O-zone turnover last game.
Forum: Toronto Maple LeafsMar. 7 at 3:13 p.m.
Thread: 50Leafs 2023 2024 Season Discussion Part 5 - TDL additions (Go Big or Go Small)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NorthernLeafsFan05</b></div><div>BTW if its not already abundantly clear, Liljegren is definitely getting traded for a bigger name. Maybe a Buchnevich or a M. Pettersson. The focus on adding "playoff style RD" combined with Keefe's track record for not trusting Lili in the post season makes this seem super likely. Plus, he is due for a play raise this offseason that Im not sure we can afford. Id be alright with Lili for Buch retained or someone of similar value, but anything else seems iffy.</div></div>

I think someone will give a 1st for him, same as Sandin. Like just think what he will common this summer. Dobber's contract projections had Sandin at $3.4M and Lili at $3.3M. They are by almost all analytics model equal value players. Add in the Lili is a RHD and I struggle to see him getting less in a trade.

If we can flip Lili for a 1st and then do something like

1st, 1st, Robertson, Brodie for Buch and Parayko (with retention) that would be a good move. Analytically horrible but I think <a href="/users/aadoyle" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@aadoyle</a> is right about needing to forget that a bit for the playoffs. A D core of:

Rielly - Parayko
Benoit - McCabe
Edm - Boosh

Would be ****ing hard to play against.
Forum: Toronto Maple LeafsMar. 7 at 3:06 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 7 at 2:26 p.m.
Thread: You have to swing for the fences
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>fangm</b></div><div>Entry Denial Rate isn't as important as Possesion Entry Denial Rate and Entry Chance prevention.

Those figures just mean that teams dump and chase more against him than against 68% of other D but when they do skate at him and try to score off the rush he is worse than 76% of defenders at preventing them from crossing the blue line in possession and 87% of defenders at preventing the scoring chance.

Here is another view analytics mode showing how bad he is:
<img class="for_img" src="https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2024/03/06163252/Screenshot-2024-03-06-at-4.32.44%E2%80%AFPM.png" alt="Screenshot-2024-03-06-at-4.32.44%E2%80%AFPM.png"></div></div>

I'm not saying that the blues should waive him. I'm saying that no team should pay to acquire a guy who is a DFD but his team is getting destroyed when he's on the ice.

If he wasn't 31, signed till he was 27 at $6.5M then maybe someone should risk it and see if he can go back to what he was 3 years ago. But there is no way any team should offer more than a 3rd max for him give how bad he is playing and how bad that contract is.

Armstrong needs to decide that either they are worried about Parakyo's performance and dump him or most likely wait it out and see if he turns a corner. I get why Blues fans like him, the stats backup what you like, he is super physical, has scored a lot this year but the underlying numbers say the team is better without him.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 7 at 2:20 p.m.
Thread: You have to swing for the fences
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>:tearsofjoy

Muh huh. Well, counselor, since you are so educated, since when is 68% percentile "horrible"? Let alone on a team where the forwards love to do no look back passes to no one at their own blue line every night? That's "horrible" in your esteemed judgement? Nothing spun in that claim, huh?

Get serious, man.</div></div>

Entry Denial Rate isn't as important as Possesion Entry Denial Rate and Entry Chance prevention.

Those figures just mean that teams dump and chase more against him than against 68% of other D but when they do skate at him and try to score off the rush he is worse than 76% of defenders at preventing them from crossing the blue line in possession and 87% of defenders at preventing the scoring chance.

Here is another view analytics mode showing how bad he is:
<img class="for_img" src="https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2024/03/06163252/Screenshot-2024-03-06-at-4.32.44%E2%80%AFPM.png" alt="Screenshot-2024-03-06-at-4.32.44%E2%80%AFPM.png">
Forum: Toronto Maple LeafsMar. 6 at 11:29 p.m.
Thread: 50Leafs 2023 2024 Season Discussion Part 5 - TDL additions (Go Big or Go Small)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>It makes 0 sense for them to do it

They have 0 need for Kampf or Liligren</div></div>

Really? They currently have 9 NHL D (including Hanifin) and 2 are RHD.

So there is zero chance they trade Whitecloud.

If they swapped McNabb and Hague for Lili on the backend (Ignoring what we'd have to add upfront/ in futures) their D would be:

Theodore - Pietro
Hanifin - Whitecloud
Martinez - Lili

That is much better than

McNabb - Theodore
Martinez - Pietro
Hanifin - Whitecloud

Theodore has been pretty loud about not liking the right side and none of the other LD on Vegas have played the right for any extended period of time. As recently as yesterday in the Athletic he talked about how hard it is and how you can't play as well as a lefty on the right as one your natural side.

Maybe there is another move for them but they already have 7 guys who are arguably top 4 NHL D and if they want to maximize their top guy they need to add a RHD. So the deal makes sense if they also get back something else.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 6 at 11:02 p.m.
Thread: Shmello
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KingofRnR</b></div><div>Nah, I’ll give Lundell the value of a 1st, but Hanifin still brings back a 2nd + 3rd + Roster Player + B Prospect + C Prospect on Top of that

CGY may need to retain on Hanifin though and offer some depth pieces, later picks or other prospects back in exchange

This assumes Hanifin is willing to extend long-term in FLA, which I think he is if he’s considering Tampa Bay

We’re hoping for a Home Run Return on Hanifin although some are saying prefer to be disappointed. We’ll see</div></div>

March 2nd, 2024:
KingofRNR, "Hanifin brings back a 1st + 2nd + 3rd + Roster Player + B Prospect + C Prospect

March 6th, 2024:
Calgary Flames, "We trade Hanifin for a 1st, 3rd, F Prospect"

Delusional. There should be some type of IQ test to be allowed to post here.