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habs_trade_churner_50

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Forum: Armchair-GMMay 3 at 7:07 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 1 at 11:22 a.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Voice_Of_Thruth</b></div><div>Do you even know about these prospects lmao?

To say theres nothing in there for you is just dumb</div></div>

I'll give it a shot.

The scouting report on this site is a little outdated for Barron but sees his upside as a 2nd pairing 2-way D. His production this season is a step down from last season, which I find a little concerning towards his chances of reaching that upside. He's played in chunks of 3 seasons now but hasn't solidified himself as a permanent NHLer.

I'm not going to go off of Farrell's scouting report since it hasn't been updated in over a year. I think he's in a little similar of a situation: his stellar NCAA scoring hadn't entirely translated to the AHL, apparently partly due to injury. I think he has the highest upside of any of these guys.

Koivunen was 6th in scoring in both the Liiga regular season and playoffs this year. Afterwards, he was one of a few decent players as WBS collapsed in the playoffs. He could very easily be fighting for an NHL spot next season. I'm not convinced the gap between Farrell and Koivunen is particularly wide. He's also over a year and a half younger than both Habs prospects, so there's more wiggle room for him to grow still.

Foster's a step down from the other guys here. However, he is also still only 18 and was 3rd in scoring on the 67s this year. Probably a 3rd liner at best if he ever makes it to the NHL.

I'm willing to say Farrell and Barron are the better pair of prospects right now. Am I willing to turn a 3rd and a 4th into a pair of 7ths for that swap? Not particularly.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 1 at 12:13 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 1 at 9:01 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 30 at 10:26 a.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>habs_trade_churner_50</b></div><div>Interesting trade proposition. Can you provide the exact trade outline, just so I can visualize. As you said Benn for Marner, 1 for 1 won't happen.</div></div>

Tough call
Im a fan of neither team so likely to take abuse from both.
But to me Benn's value is on the decline but even in his decline he out produces a lot of teams top guys, but 9.5m for 6.5m play at best is a hard sell
Marner is overpaid as well but i feel its not by as big of a margin in fact its so small its barely worth mentioning at 750k-1m and thats based on him disappearing in April and May every year
If he produced id call it fair value but IMO he needs more room to take that next step which is 100% within him , just not in TML IMO

So i value Marner over Benn by a fair margin to the point DAL's 1st this year is a piece not the only piece.
I'd say Marner for Benn , 1st , 3rd and a B+ or A- Prospect?
Or DAL could just RS on Benn and lower the return quite a bit by paying a 3rd party to RS for a 3rd and maybe a Waiver eligible player on the fringe like Oskar Back and now a B- or C+ level player IMO
Lets say Marner for Benn at 4.75m and a 1st would seem palatable to me as TML would be left 6m in cap to sign someone

Its tough because Benn is a Grizzled Veteran making 3m over what he's paid today but it could be 4m next season, who knows?
Even with the Salary Retained at 50% its still a hard thing to argue to TML fans that its worth giving up on Marner.
But i think RS with a 1st giving TML 6m to go shopping would do it.
3 way trades are tricky but not impossible and that 3rd team RS can make a big difference just look at the Petry deal(#2)

DAL could make a deal with Utah or ANA or SJS,ext to RS on Benn
If they move out Faksa they'd be in a much stronger position this year but it isnt needed.
They can kick the can down the road a year on most who need contracts as they go from 15 to 50m cap free
So re-signing Marner actually fits their timeline if they wanted to go that route
Marner would make more and be in a state that defends individual rights at a rate few others do in North America so there is appeal to it even though Hometown Boy playing at home is the goal if he had to choose a runner up DAL is a pretty sweet landing spot IMO
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 30 at 6:02 a.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>habs_trade_churner_50</b></div><div>If 69 games and 85 points is Marner's worst season, then I am scared to see when he is on fire, with the flames, pun intended.
Marner needs to play away from home, needs a mental reset, and a fresh start.

Liljegren, is a good player, but the Maple Leafs keep switching his D-pair around, like a merry-go-round and moving him up and down the lineup. How is this man suppose to settle in with so much instability? (And he does not fit as well into Toronto's d-scheme, compared to the player's management think they want, eg. very physical.) Over the last three seasons Liljegren has played 183 games, playing less due to being a healthy scratch. During those 183 games he has 64 points, a 0.35ppg average for a defensemen. Much better than Rasmus Sandin (an LD), who fetched a first, and afterwards signed for 5 years at 4.6m.
Which RD comes into the league and has played 7 pro seasons by the time he is 25? No one. Most defenseman start in the NHL after playing 2-3 years in the minors or overseas. Liljegren has 3 "full" (60 game) seasons under his belt. Give him a break, and blame the coaching staff for this mess. Expecting players to succeed with so little patience, is a hallmark for continuous first round exits.

If the Leafs lose later today, the first thing they need to do is fire Sheldon Keefe, (and break up the core four). I believe Marner is the odd man out.</div></div>

Maybe, but I dont think you're selling high on either player.

And Marner who's production wasn;t down, we know with the leafs regular season offensive production is over rated, its his overall game/importance. Marner's value is hurt by the fact that he is small, one dimensional, non physical, and seems mentally fragile/selfish/? (main reasons Toronto fans want rid of him), but also to the fact that hes probably a 13+mil re-sign as a player making winger, and similar to Gaudreau (who was a UFA) might not have his one asset (offensive production) on a lesser team that isnt a regular season offensive powerhouse.

As far as Liljegren, its partly Toronto's system, but he hasn;t shown the offensive upside or physical upside to be a top 4. Toronto over just the past 2 years has brought in a combo of defensive and offensive guys, some getting far more minutes (and some not a healthy scratch) in McCabe, Schenn, Gustaffsson, Klingberg, Benoit, Edmundsen, Lyubushkin. Liljegren will be going into his EIGHTH pro season in North America with less than 200 NHL games. If he cant be a top 4 in toronto, with their defensive turnover and need, theres not a ton of teams he could be. I just dont see a higher upside than we've seen and he'd have to be partnered with the right player. I just don;t see him getting what Sandin got (and even that looked like an end of the round 1st), maybe a late 2nd, because Sandin got that return based on less information. Liljegren's stock in the past 2 years is going lower, not higher.

I just dont see anyone giving equal or better value in trade for these two right now, but then you're never going to get a "marner" for a "marner" but you might get multiple pieces which are better for the team or make the team better.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 24 at 12:40 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 24 at 12:21 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 24 at 11:27 a.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>habs_trade_churner_50</b></div><div>You really seem to be betting against him. Which is fine, but he is a very serviceable 3rd liner.

But if you need on-ice evidence, here it is, since he entered the league and played his first full season:

2016-2017: 17 goals
2017-2018: 19 goals
2018-2019: 27 goals
2019-2020: 1 goal (Serious Injury)
2020-2021: 17 goals (Shortened Season, 56 games))
2021-2022: 19 goals
2022-2023: 21 goals
2023-2024: 9 goals

Out of 8 'full' seasons he has played, he has scored more than 17 goals in 6 of those seasons. (one of those seasons he only played 26 games)
6/7 = above an 85% he scored 17 goals in that season.
To say you know, he won't average 17 goals over the next three seasons, is quite a claim.
(On a side note: I am rooting for the Jets this play-off. I think Josh Anderson on the third line, if he uses his size, which he can, would be a big addition to get the Jets to win the cup.)</div></div>

Yeah, I understand trying to make him look good in the hopes that someone bites, but claiming that he's going to continue a goal pace he's had trouble reaching until he's 33 when you can clearly see he's regressed that last few years and almost certainly will continue to regress due to age, is wishful thinking. 25 points is about the max you can hope for.

The Jets 3rd line is their checking line and has been excellent this year, so I wouldn't mess with it to force in a player that isn't a clear upgrade on anyone on that 3td line. He isn't a top sixer, so the 4th line is the only place for him and there are more economical options for that.

Anyways, we're off topic here, so we should probably get back to the actual ACGM, than worry too much about Anderson.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 24 at 9:04 a.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lancebmx</b></div><div>I looked at your other one, which you labelled as "too much". It's not that it's not enough, in its just not the right pieces. Anaheim won't want, if there was a desire to trade him, mid pieces. They would want a high-end piece coming back. Think of Reinbacher, 2024 1st + something else, Slaf. Those are what Anaheim would be after. Think of the Gauthier trade, they sent a high end piece in Drysdale.
Josh Anderson, even at that retention, doesn't have any value and probably even less so to Anaheim. Have to remember that each team would value players differently depending on where they are at.<strong> Anderson has less than zero value to Anaheim at 50% retained. </strong>
Farrell doesn't have any value, likely not going to be a NHL player. Also not a player Anaheim would want either way.
Barron has a bit of a value, maybe a 2nd. He's the type of player you could package with your 2024 1st.
Winnipeg's 1st, Mesar, Beck all are mid type of pieces. Anaheim, like alot of teams rebuilding, have a bunch of pieces like that.
If you want a high quality player, you have to offer something of high quality in return, not just a bunch of mid stuff. Ask yourself if you would trade Caufield for that package and if you say no, that's probably your answer.</div></div>

Anderson, at 50% retained. Has value to every single team in the league.

I'm really starting to question Duck fans.

I understand the need to get max value for Zegras. But, is he not simply a skilled 65 point wing that lacks 200 foot game?

And yes. If somehow Caufield was somehow in trade rumours and deemed expendable. A late 1st Beck/Mesar/Baron would look pretty good as a potential return.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 24 at 9:09 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 24 at 8:33 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 24 at 8:34 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 24 at 7:59 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 24 at 8:00 a.m.