Jan 15, 2017
San Jose Sharks
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drewjenks</b></div><div>Honestly ... I'm a Leaf fan ... and there's zero chance Point end's up with Marner type money over the next 6 years:
<strong>Mitch Marner </strong>
6 Year AAV = $10,890,000
Year 1 (Contract 1) = $6,750,000
Year 2 (Contract 1) = $6,750,000
Year 3 (Contract 1) = $6,750,000
Year 4 (Contract 2) = $15,030,000
Year 5 (Contract 2) = $15,030,000
Year 6 (Contract 2) = $15,030,000
6 Year AAV = $10,890,000
If Tampa can keep Point's next cap-hit under $15,030,000 and his term over 2 years ... they'll come out laughing.
<strong>And if I had to guess</strong> ... I'd guess that Point's next contract will look very similar to Marner's current contract.</div></div>
I disagree with that. The income tax calculator (which does factor in jock tax) shows Point paying ~39.13% in taxes since there's no state income tax, so $3.195M this year, $3.625M next year, $5.331M in the last year for a total of $12.151 over these 3 years after taxes but before agent fees and escrow.
Marner gets $7.464M, $6.999M, $4.842M, $3.746Mx3 for $30.543M. That's an extra $18.392M over 3 years or $6.131M per year. The salary cap should be significantly higher by then. He surpasses Marner's earnings if he gets $10.2Mx3 ($4.8M salary, 5.4M bonus) over that 3 year period. Again, everything is using the capfriendly tax estimate tool and assuming 0 escrow and 0 agent fees for both guys.
Edit: I'm not saying it will definitely happen, but saying there's 0 chance he ends up with Marner type money to me seems inaccurate. Even if he gets exactly his 9Mx3 with no bonuses (important for jock tax since there's no income tax in Tampa) he'd only wind up $2.4M shy in post-tax, pre-escrow/fees income which is 92.14% of Marner's earnings, which I would consider to be 'Marner type money.'
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rebecca</b></div><div>This came in at a bit below the anticipated AAV I figured he’d get but I was thinking more along the lines of a 5-6y deal. As others have pointed out, this doesn’t even take him to UFA, although with a $10M QO he’s either gonna be resigned long-term or become a de-facto UFA at the end of it.
The $4M v $10M is over 100% difference, which I thought was the limit under the CBA, so as to prevent the ridiculous back-diving contacts (see Luongo, Roberto et al.) of the past.</div></div>
Rules are different for frontloaded vs backloaded contracts. Backloaded contracts are essentially done to reduce the AAV by tacking on years that you don't anticipate the player ever playing, potentially trading the deal to a team struggling to reach the floor where they don't have to spend much in actual $ to pay the player, but get credit for the cap hit. I'm too lazy to look it up, but someone posted elsewhere that the rule was that the increase between 2 years cannot be greater than the $ paid in the 1st 2 years. 4m the 1st/2nd year, 6m the 3rd year, 10m the last year fits that.
As someone said on ftf, the QO having to be $10M doesn't mean a ton. When his contract's expiring, they offer him 10mx1 to qualify him, if he wants more term he might negotiate and get less than 10m AAV. Also, I could very well see Meier being worth that much in a few years. He only had 30-36-66 this year, but his underlying numbers were great, he'll likely get a decent amount of time on the top power play unit with Pokey gone, and he's still only 22 years old (turning 23 at the start of the season). This is especially true if the cap jumps significantly upon the new TV deal likely to come in a couple of years.