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jesterno2

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Sep. 11, 2020
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Colorado Avalanche
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Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 13, 2020 at 5:16 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 13, 2020 at 5:00 p.m.
Thread: Cirelli
I would push over 10 small children to see Sakic swing a way to bring Cirelli in at 3C, but I would cry if it cost Newhook. Can't see him making that deal. The biggest problem with going the OS route would be the draft picks. We'd end up basically just sitting out next years draft completely. Yes we're just entering what should be a long cup contention window, but you can't completely sit out draft years if you want to keep the pipeline of ELCs healthy. We're in great shape for the next 5 years or so, but you don't want to completely sacrifice the years after that if possible. I'm 100% on board with wanting Joe to figure it out, but after the other moves we've made I just don't think it's possible. Could trading Jost's rights net a high round pick? Compher? Donskoi? Lord knows Cole won't. If any of those could be moved for a 2nd rounder, I'd love to see Joe go all in with a final move like this.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 12, 2020 at 11:52 p.m.
Thread: Jost for Roslovic
The luxury the Avs have is an abundance of assets, and this full upcoming season to shake out who they will want to protect. If Graves can show that he can fill Z's shoes as our physical blue-liner and continue to build on the success he had last year, he could be real hard to let go. We just gave up some decent assets for Toews and he has showed what he's capable of with the Islanders. Will be interesting to see what kind of contract Toews gets, and how they structure the lines. Will Graves be able to be nearly as effective if he isn't running with Cale and they put Toews up there? Does Toews take another leap if they pair him with Makar and put himself squarely in the elite conversation across the entire league?

Any way you look at it. we now have a lot of potential on the blueline and we should be in for a treat this season.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 12, 2020 at 9:00 p.m.
Thread: Toews
I'm gonna just leave this here for those of you who haven't read it. Can't even express how stoked I am about the Toews deal now after reading this. #InSakicWeTrust
<a href="https://hbanalytics.substack.com/p/devon-toews-the-most-underrated-player" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://hbanalytics.substack.com/p/devon-toews-the-most-underrated-player</a>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>moli92</b></div><div>Do you think Sakic moves out some more cap? With Makars performance bonuses they are almost guaranteed to have overages with this roster. What do you think about moving out Cole or Donskoi?</div></div>
I would love for them to move Cole, but only if they could find an experienced RD to take his roster slot. Those aren't exactly growing on trees. If you could find a dependable stay-at-home RH defender you could pair him with Girard and slide Johnson down. Or if you find someone with some offense you could pair them with Graves on the 3rd pairing to give us 3 versatile lines. Moving Cole has been on my wishlist for every team I've created and in my eyes he's by far the worst contract on the team, even at only $4M. But with such a young defensive corps I can't see them jettisoning him without having another vet to bring in. My pipedream would be adding Cernak to the second line with Sam, but pretty doubtful we have any other moves that big left to pull off at this point.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>moli92</b></div><div>If I had to move someone it would be Donskoi. He's solid depth but 3.9 is a bit steep for him imo. I just don't know how many teams would be interested in him. Maybe wait until Hoffman and Dadonov sign then try to trade him to a team who missed out on a UFA winger?</div></div>
I could see them moving Donskoi as well, but I do think he had a bit of an up and down year with the injuries. He started off great, but when he came back he got shuffled around a lot as injuries kept piling up and never really found his groove again. With our current lines, he'd slot in on the 3rd line where he's probably best situated, and could actually thrive there against the guys he'd be facing night in and out. $3.9M AAV is probably a bit steep for a 3rd line wing, but he may very well give us an advantage on that line most nights. In an ideal world, we'd swap him for a gritty two-way 3C and push Compher to the wing, but I guess we'll see what else Joe has in mind to finish things off.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 9, 2020 at 6:10 p.m.
Thread: If We Hall
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>shmoeman</b></div><div>No chance Tampa accepts that. Other trades are decent.

As a Bruins fan, Kuraly is better suited for a great 4C but can play 3C with the right guys around him. Works his ass of just sometimes the hockey IQ goes out the window once and a while. Will always give you a few huge goals every year. Maybe sign another 3/4C with the extra cap in case hes not great in the role (or dont trade Jost)</div></div>


Appreciate the insight on Kuraly. I like his playing style and think he's exactly the type of guy we need to bolster our bottom-6. Haula, Kuraly, Grabner, Matt Martin... really interested in those types of guys cause they're all gritty or good for special teams but not one-dimensional.

And yeah, the Cernak deal is a straight offer sheet with the appropriate compensation but I'd sweeten the deal with a future or additional picks in this scenario if it would make it happen. They probably match at that price though. Will be interesting to see if they're able to clear all the space they need to keep Cernak, Sergachev, and Cirelli with all those NTC and NMC they have to work around.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 4, 2020 at 7:40 p.m.
Thread: Meeshies 2020 Offseason Avs Roster
Not that Hall's gonna negotiate against himself, but if the Avs provide the best possible option for him to join a contender and chase a Cup, it sounded like he was saying that he'd be open to a below market deal on a short term. I'd imagine if Sakic presented a comprehensive plan that included other upgrades that would improve the team and give them the best chance to win, maybe he could be talked down a decent amount from that $10M. If he took a deal in the $7-8M range, that leaves a bit of meat on the bone to keep Graves or find another reliable defenseman to push Cole to the bottom pairing where he belongs (if you aren't trying to move him in this scenario). Since he's taking less money to win the Cup anyways, he may as well give himself the best chance possible.

I tinkered around with ideas around Domi as well and think he could be a really interesting fit at 3C, but I cooled on the idea because of the cost it sounds like he's going to be demanding. If it's not too long of a deal and for the most part you're keeping the rest of the team intact though, I think he'd be an interesting option. Montreal seems to have addressed their need for a LD with Edmundson, so that type of trade built around Z likely won't work for them (or so I was told by a bunch of Canadiens fans).
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 14, 2020 at 2:11 p.m.
Thread: Over the Hump
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Del_</b></div><div>Hammer's remaining salary due is $2M. I don't see why they'd consider him a "dump" to save money... And they have to replace him with a roster player making at least $750k. So they're giving the Avs a pick and substantially downgrading their D for a $1.25M maximum salary savings? Doesn't pass the sniff test.</div></div>

Cap hit is still $5M though, right? I'll admit I don't completely understand all the minutiae around how the finances work with salary vs signing bonuses vs cap hit and how exactly that impacts the team's cap, but the tool has him showing as counting for $5M against the team's cap so that' what I'm basing my moves on.

Regardless, maybe I'm obtuse, but the site is showing that the Coyotes have about $1.1M left in cap space for next year's roster and only 17/23 players signed. My math skills didn't go above high school calculus but I don't really understand how they're just going to stand pat and be able to fill out the rest of the roster, even with league minimum players, and especially without downgrading their roster in some way. My moves were based on assumptions that they are going to have to move some salary and that teams will want to make trades that theoretically make sense for them and not just take bad contracts for some used goalie pads and a high five.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 14, 2020 at 1:29 a.m.
Thread: Over the Hump
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xqb15a</b></div><div>Number 1 Hjalmarsson isn’t going to improve the pk, the problem with the pk is the concept and I’d take Cole over him regardless. Playing Timmins instead of Byram is problem for a number of reasons first and foremost being that Byram is significantly better than Timmins and is flat out a stud and is going to be the top pairing with Makar sooner rather than later. Playing him 3rd pairing is a way to ease him into the lineup something that is going to happen regardless. I probably should have been more verbose in my critique than using convoluted gyrations because I like the idea of Cernack but that’s to make him the 2nd pairing and new PK anchor, and think the easier solution is to offer sheet him also allowing EJ to slide to 3rd pairing and more controlled minutes with his injury history. Kaut replacing Nieto or even LOC replacing him is easy because as much as I love Nieto he offers next to no offense something Kaut can on an initial 4th line or even 3rd line role because he does have significantly more skill and has proven he can play with highly skilled players there is a reason he was drafted 16th overall, and also because Martin is imo an awful fit with horrible shot differential stats. As for Elvis and Anderson I threw out there asking what it would take and it was before Sakic’s announcement about the goalie. My apologies for being short, but I really think Hjalmarsson and Martin are a waste of time and space.</div></div>

I appreciate the thoughtful follow-up response. I apologize if I seem snappy as well. I'll be honest, I was so excited to find this site and this armchair GM tool this week cause I've always loved tinkering with lineups and trades and FA ideas as an armchair GM, but after a week of playing with the interactive tool and posting a couple of offseason blueprint ideas, I'm pretty put off by the forums. There's a stark lack of intelligent or constructive responses on the vast majority of threads I've read. People post their ideas and get canned, condescending responses like "this is laughable" or "Montreal would hang up", without any response as to alternative ideas or how people think things could work. Case in point, see the comment above this one... It's fine to not agree with someone's idea, but at least provide some rationale as to why or explain what you think could be a better move. From what I've seen, this community kinda sucks and I wish I could just have the tool without having to read the dumb responses or that I could turn the comments off. I know I don't have to read them but who doesn't want to share their ideas and have some good dialogue about what their team could do? It's been a buzzkill and really turned me off from wanting to spend anymore time on this site. Anyways, enough whining about mean/dumb people on the internet.

Byram:
Obviously Byram is a better prospect and has a higher ceiling than Timmins. No one in their right mind would argue against that. Byram could eventually create an all-time great tandem with Makar. I've just seen quite a bit of speculation that he isn't quite physically ready for the NHL, and the fact that he didn't set foot on the ice despite being desperately needed in that series almost confirms that fact in my mind. The skill is there and he's tearing up the WHL and doesn't have much more to prove there, but he likely still needs to add some strength to deal with the physical game he'll see night in and night out playing against grown men in the NHL. The Avs defense is already young and rushing a prospect up before he's ready can have a detrimental effect on their development, especially for a guy with the hype Byram has around him. And with as close as the Avs are to a cup you want to make sure the moves you're making are putting you in the absolute best position, both for this season and long-term. I just don't think they need to rush Byram until they 100% feel he's ready, and you have Timmins there already showing he can handle the physical game. Timmins needs seasoning as well, but he's physically ready. I just really feel like if Byram was physically ready, we would've seen him on the ice instead of someone like Connauton because of the skills he possesses. And all of that is before you consider that pushing Byrams ELC back could actually help with managing the cap as key core players are due extensions and raises the next few years. The kid's gonna make a ton of money in his career with the trajectory he's on, but if they can push his pro contract back a year by playing him less than 10 games this season, that helps extend the cap flexibility. You see this type of prospect management strategy all the time in pro sports and if he still has anything to work on, whether that's defense, special teams, or just physical strength, there's no need to rush him and particularly no need to put him on the roster ahead of a (healthy) Timmins.

Cole/Special Teams:
For the most part I do agree that a coaching change is sorely needed to improve the special teams, but not really sure why you're thinking so highly of Cole and thinking that Hammer wouldn't improve the PK unit. I really didn't see much this year to make me think that Cole is still deserving of many minutes on a cup-contending team. Once EJ went down our defensive effectiveness fell off a cliff. Dallas' offense wasn't lighting the world on fire against the Blues, but we made them look like the freaking Lightning in our series. A lot of that can be blamed on relying on young guys, but that's where vets like Cole are supposed to step in and be the steadying force. All I saw from Cole was turnovers, playing out of position, and worthless chipping the puck out of the zone when we got possession and had a chance to create a counter-attack with a good transition pass. He was brought in to mentor our young guys and help change the culture around our team, and he has contributed to that, but I think it's time for a change of the guard. We can agree to disagree again here on Cole, but I do think if we can find an upgrade we should. I've played with Goligoski instead of Hammer since the Coyotes will likely just be looking to cut salary any way they can. What would you think about tinkering that deal to feature Goligoski (possibly slightly higher cost) instead? I feel like that move would be more of a blocking move than Hammer, but I'm just not sold on keeping Cole around.

Kaut:
I also think that Kaut is going to be a good player and that he'll be a mainstay on our middle-6 lines in the coming years, but I feel similar with him as I do with Byram and think that if we can fill the spots with a proven veteran on a shorter-term contract, it puts us in a better position to chase the cup. I'm not opposed to giving the kids a chance, but with the cap space to utilize and the environment created by the flat cap and pandemic, the Avs should be in a position to capitalize and bring in guys who've been there before. Kaut will get his chance at playing time at some point this year when the injury bug inevitably bites, but it's not like he set the league on fire and made himself indispensable in his last call-up.

Martin:
Martin has been a fan favorite in his time with Toronto and NYI, and I honestly think you're undervaluing his contributions. Fun fact, he is the NHL record holder for hits in a single season. He is 100% a 4th line guy and mostly there to F $#!+ up, but he makes stuff happen - he actually has 5 goals in the playoffs, as a 4th line winger, FYI. I've been watching the Islanders in the bubble and he just always seems to be in the middle of making stuff happen, whether it's scrapping with the other teams tough guys to fire up the team, wreaking havoc in front of the net that results in a goal, or delivering a big hit on someone. All year long I felt like the Avs were a bit of a soft team, and when Calvert and then Landeskog went down against Dallas, MacKinnon was left nearly by himself to provide grit while also carrying the scoring load. Yes, Z is known for big hits but he has poor timing with them and often takes himself out of the play to throw the hit, and I honestly don't expect to see him back next year. This team needs an upgrade in toughness, and Martin is that grinder type. Unless Kaut can show a real nasty mean streak in camp, I don't see him bringing that to the table. Going up against physical, grindy teams like Dallas, St. Louis, and Vegas all year long, I think the Avs need more guys like this to be able to battle them. We have the skill and speed to skate circles around them, but when things get mucked up our team seems to fall apart and we don't have those guys to bang and crash and produce ugly goals. I think Martin would fit in well with Calvert and PEB after watching them spark stuff all year long with Nieto, and give us a dose of grit and nastiness that we just don't seem to have right now. If you don't like Martin maybe they can find someone else - Simmonds? Way more expensive Domi? We certainly ain't prying Tom Wilson from the Caps... It's slim pickings but I feel like they need to find some sandpaper somewhere.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 13, 2020 at 9:40 p.m.
Thread: Over the Hump
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xqb15a</b></div><div>Cole is better Hjalmarsson in all metrics less expensive and does not require anything to keep him and with all the gyrations you blocked Byram who will absolutely be with the Avs next season. Honestly this is so convoluted and blocks so many prospects the Avs would be just better off signing their own guys and someone like Toffoli.</div></div>

"Convoluted gyrations". Lol, okay buddy. Byram isn't blocked with Hammer's deal expiring after this season just like Cole's, except with Hammer we have a good chance of upgrading our PK, which needs to get better if we're gonna take the next step. Your "Random Ideas" team (made from your armchair just like mine) had almost the same exact defense configuration, except your team kept Cole instead of adding Hammer, and you left Timmins off even though he has already actually seen playing time in several call-ups. You would leave him rotting in the minors and promote Byram and have him play limited minutes on a bottom pair instead, even though he still likely needs some physical development to withstand banging with grown men in the NHL at 19? There's a reason Timmins played in the bubble and Byram didn't see the ice, even with a completely depleted defense corps. That's fine if you disagree on Byram, I posted in my OP that it might be an unpopular opinion, but I think it's what's best for the organization and for his development based on the reports I've seen, and what it would mean for the cap management the next few years.

As for the other prospects, Kaut has looked good in limited minutes but we're just gonna jump straight to putting him on the 3rd line on a team with Cup aspirations and hope that he can handle it instead of finding a way to upgrade both the 2nd and 3rd lines? PEB and Calvert's deals are done after this season and Bowers and Newhook/Beaucage can take their place if they're ready. In my plan O'Connor could also be replaced after next season. You had Anderson coming on for a 2-year deal in your team as well, and put Kaut on the 4th line instead of Martin, which I'd say is a gamble if you're hoping a rookie can replace Nieto. How are the prospects not blocked in your scenario as well? While I like home-grown guys too, it's a bit of a reach to just expect them to step in a produce at a level that the veterans I had coming in have proven they can produce. Every fan likes their team's prospects and thinks they can't fail but that's just naive.

Don't be so dramatic with your critiques if you have basically the same team in mind, lol. I hadn't seen your plan til I went to see if you had any ideas of your own given the big words you wanted to post on the internet. For the record, I would've liked your ideas before Joe insisted he wants to keep Gru and Frankie, and if you could find a way to make your Columbus trade work instead of offering them a bag of pucks for Elvis.