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jfalstaff

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May 17, 2016
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Toronto Maple Leafs
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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 7, 2019 at 1:08 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 1, 2018 at 10:03 p.m.
Thread: Nylander
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 14, 2018 at 2:23 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 14, 2018 at 1:39 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 13, 2018 at 12:36 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Gofnut999</b></div><div>
Also, this is a win now team, the pieces are in place to make a cup run. If they are going to trade an asset like Nylander you’d think it would be for a top 4 pairing RD now as opposed to one who might be a couple years from now. They can just wait for Liljgren if that’s the case.</div></div>

Liljegren coming along is why, if they absolutely must trade Nylander, I would hope they wouldn't limit returns to RHDs. They're set up to win now, sure, but their window is just opening. I think Dubas is a progressive enough GM that he'd see trading Nylander, a player they could have for 8 years, for 1-2 years of a good top-4 D as a waste. If they don't get lucky before, say, Faulk's contract expires, they're in tough for years 3-8 of contention -- no Nylander, no asset you'd get for him, all to increase your Cup chances by, like, .5% for a couple years. So, instead of that, I'd use Nylander to reload the high-end of the prospect pool -- Kadri's and Rielly's contracts will, eventually, expire, and when that happens they're not going to find replacements among their late 1sts and 2nd rounders.


<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Gofnut999</b></div><div>I think Trouba would make a lot of sense for both teams. But with him being unlikely to sign a long term deal it would be a big gamble.</div></div>

As a one-for-one trade modeled on the Jones deal, that's one that makes sense to me.

But, TBH, my preference is still that they just re-sign him and see if they can just run teams over with a top-five center, a top-twenty center, a high-end second-line center on the 3rd line, and two top-20 wingers roving around. Just thinking through what'd be doable and beneficial should things head south with Nylander.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 12, 2018 at 9:40 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 12, 2018 at 4:56 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 12, 2018 at 3:02 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SirCharles</b></div><div>On 6-8 year deals I think Nylander is at 6-6.5 and Marner is at 7-7.5 , if they signed this summer.
I’m unsure why people are saying 9-10 million per year for Marner. He is not Kucherov or Draistal or Kane... he has played 2 years with 1 20 goal season and a career high of 69 points. That don’t get you Kucherov money. I compare him, cap hit concerned, to Pasternak and Gaudreau and considering the cap has been raised since they were extended I think 7-7.5 is market value, I would be shocked if he gets anymore then 7.5</div></div>


Here are the comparisons I was looking at. It's by PPG, and I include the ages, since Marner's NHL productivity is coming at an earlier age than a lot of his production peers.

Pastrnak — 123 pts in 173GP (18-20yo) = .71 PPG. Signs after expiration of RFA contract for 8.89% C.H., for 6 years.

Taylor Hall — 95 points in 126 GP (19-20yo) = .75 PPG. Signs after 2nd season for 10% of the cap, for 7 years.

Vladimir Tarasenko = 135 points in 179GP (21-23 yo) = .75 PPG. Signs after contract ELC expires for 10.27% of Cap, for 8 years.

Bobby Ryan — 131 points in 168 GP (20-22yo) = .78PPG. Signs after expiration of ELC and holding out into September for 8.59% of cap, for 5 years.

Eberle — 119 points in 147 GP (20-21 yo) = .81 PPG. Signs after 2nd season season at 10% of Cap, for 6 years,

Mitch goes here. 130 points in 159 games (19-20 yo) = .82 PPG.

Gaudreau — 142 pts in 159 GP (21-22yo) = .89 PPG. Signs after ELC expires and holding out into Oct. for 9.25% of Cap, for 6 years.

So... I don't know. If it's Gaudreau, who was underpaid, you're at $7.5m on a deal that doesn't eat up many UFA years. But Marner's doing it younger, like Eberle and Hall, and I don't see the Leafs wanting to go less than 7 years. Nor do I see them dragging this out into next fall, since they'll be ripe for an offer sheet.

So, I'm figuring an Eberle and Hall sorta deal -- 10% of an ~82.5m cap for 6/7 years, and coming up with $8.25m as a starting point. Then, what would a Tarasenko-length deal (eating UFA years) be for a guy who's been more productive and done it younger? About $9m, or about 11% of the Cap.