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jglazer9

MelnykOut
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Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 7, 2018 at 6:58 p.m.
Thread: Im tired of the No Top Prospects for soon to be UFA Stars
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>You're under the salary floor, but there's a reason you can't get top prospects when your star is a UFA soon.

First of all, since Karlsson won't agree in advance to an extension, that really limits your trade options to Cup contenders. I mean, sure, the Stars would love Karlsson, but they're not going to give that much because they don't necessarily benefit from getting him for this season - in fact, it really just lowers their draft position. They would be taking him to make it easier to re-sign him. And, if you were a GM, do you really trade your entire future just to slightly help increase your chances of re-signing a star player?

Any Cup contender should become favorites (or at least near favorites) with Karlsson, and that brings up his value to them. But, Cup contenders rarely have deep enough prospect pools that they can give away top prospects without guaranteeing the need for a rebuild within a couple of years, and teams want to extend their window as long as possible. And they have chemistry. If the Bruins split up Bergeron and Marchand, they get worse even though their depth is more spread out, because it's breaking up chemistry. Similarly, it's difficult to get someone like Palat, Point, Gourde, Cirelli, etc. from a team like the Lightning, since they all fill a specific role on that team and have chemistry that can't necessarily be replicated.

GMs know all that, and they know that a soon-to-be UFA is less valuable, so they will offer less. Of course, the Senators are demanding top prospects, but if they just hang up the phone and wait, Dorion will <em>have</em> to back down, or he'll end up with nothing. it's even worse with the Karlsson case, since it's quite apparent that he won't re-sign in Ottawa. And, when you have an owner like Melnyk who insists that one of the worst contracts in the League be included in the trade, that makes things harder because no Cup contender has the cap space for that. Some assets have to go to a third team to make them take on that contract, and that comes directly from the Senators' return.

So no, you're not going to get Point, Sergachev, Cirelli, Glass, Suzuki, or Heiskanen. You'd be lucky to get Honka, Foote, or Brannstrom. Heiskanen is an overpayment considering the risk (the Stars risk losing him for free in free agency, and they lose a top prospect when they maybe could have signed him in free agency without it). And for the Lightning and Vegas, yes, they have good prospects, but these are instrumental to their future success (and sometimes, for players like Point, for their current success as well). There's simply no way around it - you don't get top prospects for a soon-to-be UFA who everyone knows won't re-sign with you.</div></div>

1) Teams are allowed to talk extension with him. This gives a team like Tampa the certainty of keeping him.

2) It is very ignorant to say the Rental aspect of a player eliminates all of his value. Do you realize Karlsson is the best dman in the NHL and to some even a top 3 player? If this deal becomes a sign and trade, Karlsson for Sergachev, Cirelli and a 1st isn't a crazy deal. To say they'd be -lucky- to get either of those players is BS. Mark Stone would fetch a Brannstrom/Honka in a trade.

3) The idea that Ryan going to a third team will diminish their return from the contender getting Karlsson does not make sense. The sens will likely have to give up a pick and take back a smaller cap dump, but they won't lose anything from TBL/VGK/DAL