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jnowariak
Member Since
Aug. 26, 2020
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Minnesota Wild
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Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 4, 2023 at 3:27 p.m.
Thread:
Just some ideas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jnowariak</b></div><div>I think you’re right more or less. The big thing with the Z trade is how much *is* Firstov worth? I assume he’s not coming back to NA unless he’s got an NHL spot so there’s some weird trade leverage.
I do think they are gonna move some prospects this year and it’ll be interesting to see who they move and whether it’s for an impact player or flexibility.</div></div>
Probably about on par with Kahkonen in terms of his considered value at the time we traded him for Middleton.
So roughly a late'ish 2nd to a 3rd round pick in value.
Merrill is anyone's guess. Spin the wheel. 5th? 6th? 7th? GOAT Future Considerations.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 4, 2023 at 3:23 p.m.
Thread:
Just some ideas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GreatWhiteNorth</b></div><div>Then you won’t get Zadorov.
Call him a 6th or 7th d-man all you want, but he splayed top 4 in his career and he brings the physical element that teams covet for playoffs. Am I saying he’s worth a 1st? No. But when multiple teams are going to be bidding on the same player it increases the price (as I mentioned), so you have to beat any other offer to get him.
Merrill isn’t going to be useful for Calgary. They already have guys on their roster looking for ice time, plus probably another 3 that aren’t playing that they could give a shot. What use does Merrill have to them? Minnesota can look to move him in another deal or place him on waivers to assign him to the AHL. If that’s a non-negotiable for them, well sorry it’s no deal for Calgary. They’ll have plenty of other deals that offer a better fit and better value than this.</div></div>
Again, it's been 2+ seasons since he's played in a top 4 role. The fact he has in the past, is entirely irrelevant. He doesn't play there now. Furthermore, when he is going to be acquired by any potential team to play on their bottom pair, and NOT in their top 4, they aren't paying top 4 prices.
Jake Middleton has played in the top 4 for two different teams for his entire professional NHL career. Playing with the likes of Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson, and Jared Spurgeon as his primary D-partners for that entire timespan.
He is <strong><em>unanimously</em></strong> considered a 3rd pairing talent by everyone at large and plays in teams top 4 strictly because of his size and physicality.
Sound familiar?
There were at least 4 teams openly known trying to get him at the time he was traded to Minnesota. In the end, he was traded for Kappo Kahkonen and a 5th round pick. That was the extent of the *bidding* war.
A *bidding war* probably only gets Calgary back a 2nd and a solid prospect in the absolute best case scenario. Even then, none of which likely carries close to near Firstov's potential as a top-six foward.
Finally, NHL GM's do NOT move or make additional trades when they don't have to. They're not about to create any additional work for themselves if they can't help it. Guerin isn't going to trade Merrill separately just to acquire Zadorov.
Conroy is in a different position however. He's in the position that he's looking to acquire assets. Whether they be young potential top-nine forwards, to strengthen his scoring depth, or further give himself draft capital. He's fully capable of taking on Merrill, as a favor to Guerin to help keep Minnesota cap compliant, a favor that Guerin now owes to Conroy. Then either waiving Merrill himself or flipping him for another low round draft pick.
This sucks for Merrill, but it's win-win for both Guerin and Conroy.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 4, 2023 at 1:59 p.m.
Thread:
Just some ideas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GreatWhiteNorth</b></div><div>While the idea might have merit, the proposal just isn’t enough for Zadorov. Any deal for him starts with a 1st round pick (you can argue Firstov’s value in any talks but I don’t see it as the same value of a 1st). His trade comparables would be Ben Chairot and David Savard and both of them got a 1st in return. Add in the fact that multiple teams will try to acquire him at the deadline and the bidding war has to start at a 1st.
Assuming Calgary is then looking to rebuild or retool, and Merrill doesn’t really have any value to them as they already have multiple defence that are trying to get into the lineup and they can sign a veteran for the bottom pair if they felt they needed to.
Because of all that, this just doesn’t make sense for Calgary.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jnowariak</b></div><div>Interesting. I’m not sure how to value Z and I’d probably start with a 1st as the ask too, Firstov looks like you could plug him in a mid 6 role with PP time right now. He’s also a weird valuation.
But I’d be fine with adding another piece or 2 from the Wild POV. I’ll be interested to see if the Flames move Z or Hanafin first and how each return shapes the other.</div></div>
I'm not paying a 1st for a 6th/7th Dman, that's absolutely too rich.
Savard was at the time of his last two trades at minimum was a serviceable 2nd pairing option. So a 1st for him is/was entirely justifiable. Chiarot was almost a beneficiary of a small Dman market at the time of his trade so his price was inflated a bit because of that. He's also been playing 2nd pairing minutes since going to Detroit, so one could also argue they paid 2nd pairing Dman prices.
Zadorov, meanwhile, has been a consistent 3rd pairing Dman for several years in Calgary. As well as a current healthy scratch. He's absolutely a improvement for Minnesota's bottom pair, but let's not jump the gun, shall we?
Asking for a 1st for him is a significant stretch in my opinion. I could maybe stomach a 2nd, more or less due to the retention involved. But that's kinda where I would draw the line.
Taking Merrill in this trade is the price paid for keeping both teams cap compliant as well as roster compliant too. Minnesota already has 8 D, given that 2 of them are currently on LTIR, a Dman <strong><em>needs</em></strong> to go out in order to fit Zadorov on the roster anyway.
That part is non-negotiable.
I'm not moving Peart, but O'Rourke is certainly an option if another piece is necessary. Besides, given how good Firstov looks in the KHL right now, the Flames would highly be likely to come out ahead on this trade. A potential top-six talent for a 3rd pairing defenseman is almost criminal. Even if Firstov tops out as only a middle-six guy, that's still a win for Calgary.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 4, 2023 at 1:00 p.m.
Thread:
Just some ideas
While the idea might have merit, the proposal just isn’t enough for Zadorov. Any deal for him starts with a 1st round pick (you can argue Firstov’s value in any talks but I don’t see it as the same value of a 1st). His trade comparables would be Ben Chairot and David Savard and both of them got a 1st in return. Add in the fact that multiple teams will try to acquire him at the deadline and the bidding war has to start at a 1st.
Assuming Calgary is then looking to rebuild or retool, and Merrill doesn’t really have any value to them as they already have multiple defence that are trying to get into the lineup and they can sign a veteran for the bottom pair if they felt they needed to.
Because of all that, this just doesn’t make sense for Calgary.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 22, 2023 at 7:12 p.m.
Thread:
is something like this feasible
taking voracek is doesnt save any cap space - hes LTIR - trading away kubalik for nothing gets OTT 2.5m, sign pinto for 2.5 but OTT still has no cap space and has only 20 roster spots (better pray for no day to day).
Insurance pays for the huge majority think its 80% - so he cost about 1.5m in real dollars.
If I'm AZ I'd take Kubalik, not sure he'll get 20G in bottom 6W role. He is not going to push keller, schmaltz, maccelli, zucker, or crouse off spot
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 1, 2023 at 10:01 a.m.
Thread:
Pinto would help solve alot
I'm a huge fan of Pinto, but if the options were between this and using a 1st to get rid of a different contract, you'd definitely have to explore the option. An affordable temporary replacement and a high-potential prospect is about as good as Ottawa can realitically try to get, with their minimal leverage
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 30, 2023 at 11:50 p.m.
Thread:
Pinto would help solve alot
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Playing in Europe doesn't help Pinto financially and certainly not next summer when he negotiates an NHL contract. Joseph 2.9m X 3 years almost untradable. it's the term. Don't know why Sens should be "terrified". L</div></div>
For the record I made several teams with PIT trading for Joseph at the draft for a draft pick and Sens fans said no.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 30, 2023 at 11:39 p.m.
Thread:
Pinto would help solve alot
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jnowariak</b></div><div>I’m not sure MN could pass on it if it was offered. If Pinto can be a 2C, this would create an incredibly strong (and young) center corps. High end wings can be found relatively easily and they could use their assets for an Addison upgrade next year.</div></div>
Fair enough. This could be a very good trade for both teams then. If Minnesota were willing to retain 100-250k on Hartman as well, it could really help Ottawa become cap compliant, while keeping the guys they want to keep.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 30, 2023 at 10:15 a.m.
Thread:
Where do they Finish
I have em at 4th in the central and missing a WC spot.
Battle for 3rd comes down WPG, MIN, STL and NSH with AZ being a not insignificant spoiler team.
Seems more likely to pick the field for 3rd vs any one team
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 12, 2023 at 2:30 p.m.
Thread:
Can we talk about that Freddy deal yet
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dannibalcorpse</b></div><div>The cap is projected to hit $90M by the 2025 offseason - I would humbly present <em>The History of NHL Free Agency, Pre-COVID</em> as my prediction of how NHL teams are going to pay middle/bottom-6 forwards when they all of a sudden have an extra $8-10M to throw around. You think the Leafs giving Ryan Reaves 3x$1.35M is wasteful? Hoo boy, that's just the tip of the iceberg!
I guess I just don't see Gaudreau as being a symptom of the Wild's issues. I think he's a better player than most of the other UFA centers who signed in the $2-2.5M range this summer, and I think he's versatile enough to be a perfectly cromulent player on the wing if you want Marco Rossi to only play C. I also think the likelihood that he's a complete and total bum by the time the Suter/Parise penalties fall off in 2025 is pretty low; the fact that he was a late bloomer means he'll have significantly less NHL miles on him by then compared to your typical 32-year-old. I think giving the extra term to make sure you get a guy that's proven he's a fine middle-6er on your team is worth it; it's also worth noting that the contract is more front-loaded salary wise meaning that he'll either be cheaper to buy out or easier to pawn off on a cap floor team at the end of his deal if he truly does fall apart.</div></div>
You're over-analyzing it. Neither contract is overly risky and everyone agrees on that. But you made the suggestion that Wild fans should be more concerned over MoJos contract than they should Freddy's. And that just fundamentally doesn't make any sense in the context of the Wild's specific cap situation and franchise timeline/goals.
The next 2 years don't really matter. The years afterwards do.
You're arguing it from the theoretical perspective of "insert any given NHL team here" vs. "the Wild specifically."
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 12, 2023 at 1:25 p.m.
Thread:
Can we talk about that Freddy deal yet
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dannibalcorpse</b></div><div>Honestly, I think the contract I'd be more annoyed about is the $2M he gave Marcus Johansson *after* they signed Gaudreau's extension. Marcus is 3 years older than FG, so you're paying him for the same years you're worried about with Freddie. He's a winger only at this point in his career instead of a guy who can play center like Gaudreau; and, just for fun, he's got a full NTC instead of the 15-teamer that Gaudreau has. And I think that if you're talking about Marcus Johansson you have to bring up the injury history - it's not the guy's fault, but it definitely gives you pause.
That deal felt like a huge overreaction a small sample size. Johansson skated most of his time with Matt Boldy and somehow outscored his opponents 17-9 at 5v5 despite negative possession numbers. I think it's much more likely that he's the 40-45 point guy he was with the Caps before the trade than a guy who's magically scoring at a 0.9 PPG pace.</div></div>
Johansson's contract expires the same year their buyouts dropoff. Gaudreau's does not. That's the difference.
Whatever happens with his production or health over the next two years does not materially matter, because there is zero overlap with their desired "contention" window. Yes, the Wild are trying to remain competitive in the interim, but they are not legitimately invested in being a cup contender until the start of the 25-26 season.
The term is the point OP is making.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 12, 2023 at 12:10 p.m.
Thread:
Can we talk about that Freddy deal yet
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dannibalcorpse</b></div><div>The term isn't *ideal* but $2.1M for a middle 6 guy who is good for 15-20 goals and 40 points every year feels like a fine value. He's capable of playing the wing, too, so if Rossi forces the issue you just move him off the dot.</div></div>
He has scored 15+ goals once and over 40 points once.
He has scored more than 10 points twice and had more than 3 goals twice
He's 30
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 12, 2023 at 12:04 p.m.
Thread:
Can we talk about that Freddy deal yet
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jnowariak</b></div><div>A bit. I don’t hate either contract in isolation but the term on both is just bleh. Merrill is fully buriable tho and I think they viewed him as a 7, I can justify that more than blocking a Rossi for *perceived* solid play.</div></div>
Yeah the parallel is committing term to replacement positions. Merrill is less term and easier to bury, but it's the same concept at the core.
Both guys could be backfilled easily in any given offseason, so it's just wholly unnecessary.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 12, 2023 at 12:01 p.m.
Thread:
Can we talk about that Freddy deal yet
Freddy G doesn't block Rossi from anything. Rossi is top-6 or bust, Freddy G doesn't belong anywhere near the top-6. If there is one contract that blocks Rossi it's MarJo playing wing with Boldy/JEE. That is the spot Rossi fits on the roster.
I don't like the Freddy G contract because it's 2 years too long.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 12, 2023 at 11:54 a.m.
Thread:
Can we talk about that Freddy deal yet
It's like another version of the Merrill contract - it's obviously not crippling or anything, but it's really unnecessary and just....why?
I'm with you on it.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 12, 2023 at 11:50 a.m.
Thread:
Can we talk about that Freddy deal yet
No. We cannot discuss it
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 26, 2023 at 1:45 p.m.
Thread:
More Picks
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jnowariak</b></div><div>I think Addison brings back a pick in the 40-50 range this year and maybe a mid round pick. I do think there is a fit w/ DET for one of those 2nds.
Regarding Durzi, I see your logic and I would add that Durzi was a bit of a cap dump and is 3 years older than Addison. I think Durzi is the floor, not the ceiling for an Addison deal. Young, offensive minded D men go for about a 2nd and some change.</div></div>
Maybe a 2nd and some late pick; but not much more. Durzi was better, but offset by age and whatnot. Don't think the deals will be far off.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 26, 2023 at 1:18 p.m.
Thread:
More Picks
Way too much for Addison lmao. Don't think you get more than a 2nd, especially considering that Durzi went for a '24 2nd.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 15, 2023 at 1:22 p.m.
Thread:
Pick Swapping with MTL and SEA
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jnowariak</b></div><div>Of the trades that have revolved around moving up in the 1st round, a 10% premia on the highest pick is the average “overpay” to complete the trade.
I only brought it up with the OP b/c I’m doing some work with picks and the draft ATM. But agreed that nothing looks off, and I figured OP would like to hear the Pens could get more. ;)</div></div>
Theathletic mock draft had an interesting idea to trade the 5th and 31st pick for the Wings 9thOA and 17thOA picks. Not sure what Hughes will do but he is unorthodox after last years draft chaos and Yzerman loves his enigmatic Russians after drafting Kucherov and trading for Sergachev. He goes Michkov at 5.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 12, 2023 at 4:49 p.m.
Thread:
Selling Patience
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MNBassman</b></div><div>The fans would gladly forget all about Kaprizov if they actually put a legit Cup contender on the ice for a decade!</div></div>
Lol, bullsh*t.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 12, 2023 at 4:43 p.m.
Thread:
Selling Patience
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MNBassman</b></div><div>Edstrom would be perfect for the Wild at 21!
Carlsson, Ek, and Edstrom down the middle…moving Rossi and Khusnutdinov to the Wing with Boldy, Ohgren and Yurov, et al…I’m pretty sure we would forget all about Kaprizov, Zuccarello, and 1st round exists very easily and very soon!</div></div>
Forgetting the best player to ever don the jersey is ridiculously inconceivable. Fans would **** about losing him whether the team was successful or not.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 12, 2023 at 4:44 p.m.
Thread:
Selling Patience
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jnowariak</b></div><div>Even if you replace Carlsson with Rossi, I like how it looks. We need to address the D corps though. My guess is we take some bigger guys in RD 2.</div></div>
I think if Rossi can be moved to wing (like here) it makes everything else better and easier.
Ceulemans and Strbak a bigger dmen.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 12, 2023 at 4:24 p.m.
Thread:
Selling Patience
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jnowariak</b></div><div>Carlsson looks like the player we’ve wanted for sooooo long. But while I agree that Kap being 26 is a bit of a concern, I do think we’re really close. Next summer we should be in a position to do what Seattle did with Bjorkstrand and I’m a big believer in the prospect pool.
With our strength on the W, if Rossi can come in and be a real 2C, we’ll have a very strong lineup up front with a good mix of young and vet talent. It will look nothing like what we’ve seen the past 2 years. I’ve got my fingers crossed for Simashev or Edstrom at 21 and really looking forward to doing some damage with KK in 24-25.</div></div>
Edstrom would be perfect for the Wild at 21!
Carlsson, Ek, and Edstrom down the middle…moving Rossi and Khusnutdinov to the Wing with Boldy, Ohgren and Yurov, et al…I’m pretty sure we would forget all about Kaprizov, Zuccarello, and 1st round exists very easily and very soon!
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 12, 2023 at 3:59 p.m.
Thread:
Selling Patience
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jnowariak</b></div><div>Trading Kap is ridiculous but this is fun.</div></div>
If he was 22/23 and/or the Wild were legit Cup contenders I wouldn’t consider it, but he’s (already) going to be 26 next year and only has 3 more (for sure) years of being on the Wild…
I actually think this makes a ton of long-term sense…IF and only IF Carlsson (or Smith) ends up as a star!
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 12, 2023 at 3:54 p.m.
Thread:
Selling Patience
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jnowariak</b></div><div>I’m guessing this is #28.</div></div>
Somewhere around there 😂
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