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jr400

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Forum: NHL TradesSep. 23 at 5:26 p.m.
Forum: NHL SigningsSep. 20 at 8:53 p.m.
So the last piece of the puzzle is to sign DeBrincat to an extension. That will be more difficult because they’ll have to give him a good reason not to simply accept his qualifying offer and walk into unrestricted free agency in the minimum number of years. Hopefully he’ll be excited about what they’ve been doing and he’ll want to be part of it.

What the Senators are doing reminds me a little of when the Leafs were trying to get their young stars signed a few years ago. Giroux is their Marleau – he’ll mentor their young players while contributing on the second line – and I guess DeBrincat is their Tavares – the big money acquisition brought in to augment the homegrown talent – though obviously he’s much younger and they still have to sign him. I thought it would be interesting to compare their situations, since Toronto is often criticized for having too much cap hit tied up in the top end of their lineup.

Toronto is now spending $48M in cap hit on their top 5 players. If Ottawa can extend DeBrincat for $10.5M AAV then when that kicks in they’ll have $43M tied up in their top 5. However, they’ve already spent $5M in cap hit on buyouts and retained salary that Toronto doesn’t have. So for the 2023-24 season, Ottawa will have the same amount of cap as Toronto to spend on the rest of their lineup. The problem is, I don’t think Ottawa’s top 5 is as good as Toronto’s. DeBrincat and Tkachuk are probably their best players, but I don’t think they’re in the same class as Matthews and Marner. The others are probably more comparable to Nylander, and I haven’t seen Chabot play much but I don’t think he’s as good as Rielly. However, as long as their players continue to perform, Ottawa’s pain will be short term, because the majority of the buyouts will be off the books in 2024, and they have their players signed much longer than Toronto’s. Toronto is going to have to spend more than $48M in cap hit to keep those guys beyond the next two years. If they can do that, even if the cap goes up they may not be any better off than they are now, whereas Ottawa will be set for years.

It'll be interesting to see how the battle of Ontario plays out over the next few years. According to my brother, no matter what situation they’re in, Ottawa will always win in the regular season but Toronto will beat them in the playoffs.
Forum: NHL SigningsSep. 20 at 7:53 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CJets</b></div><div>Auston Matthews probably has a big smile on his face right now</div></div>

I’m not so sure. If Matthews is hoping to get $15M AAV for 8 years, I don’t think he can argue that he deserves $2.4M more than MacKinnon. I do believe that goal scorers are worth more than guys who get most of their points from assists, but I think that’s a minority opinion. Matthews will be a year younger when his extension kicks in, which is worth something because that will be a prime year, and he’ll be signing a year later so he may benefit from some across-the-board inflation in the cap goes up significantly, but I don’t think those things add up to almost $20M over the duration of the contract. Unless Matthews jumps to something like 70 goals and 120 points and takes the team deep into the playoffs, I think he’ll be seen as being in the same class as MacKinnon, but not another level above him.

Of course, that doesn’t mean he can’t ask for $15M, and it doesn’t mean he won’t get it, but it won’t be because of MacKinnon. It’ll be because of leverage. Everybody knew MacKinnon wanted to stay in Colorado, but if Matthews says, “give me what I want or I’ll play out my contract and leave,” I think they’ll believe him.

If I was Matthews, I might be inclined to sign a 2-year extension with Toronto. That would give him a couple more shots at winning a cup there, and then he’d be a UFA at 28, which we’ve seen is still young enough to earn a big contract with maximum term. If the cap goes up like people are saying, waiting those two years before signing long term could get him a significantly higher AAV, and if he wants to go home, the Coyotes might actually be a decent team by then. They’re not going to be good when his current contract runs out.
Forum: NHL TradesSep. 20 at 12:03 p.m.
Forum: NHL SigningsSep. 20 at 10:50 a.m.
Forum: NHL SigningsSep. 15 at 9:55 p.m.
Forum: NHL SigningsSep. 14 at 9:26 p.m.
Forum: NHL TradesSep. 12 at 9:11 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>I loved the trade at the time as Leaf fan. But geez the Leafs messed up with the 13th pick in the draft. They took LW Amirov. Left wingers and LHD are two of the most easily players to "find"
Mercer a centre/RWer...now a RW with Jersey was pick 14th. And RHD Schneider was picked 19th by the Rangers...and is a Ranger.
Even if Amirov hadn't got sick.....it wasn't good pick. I assume a team should pick a "lesser" player if that player plays a position that is harder to man</div></div>

You got a couple of your numbers wrong – Toronto picked 15th and Mercer went 18th – and hindsight is 20/20, so I’m going to try to ignore where these players are now and review your comment based on what people were saying at the time of the draft.

I do recall Mercer being rated higher than 18th and being touted by the experts as a probable pick for Toronto at 15. I don’t remember where Schneider was ranked, but a couple of people in this discussion were suggesting at the time of the trade that he would have been a good use of this pick as the Leafs (and other teams) always seem to be looking for a right-shot defenseman. I don’t know if he was expected to go higher than 19th, but New York traded up to get him so they didn’t expect him to slip to 22nd.

In conclusion, I think you’re right. They couldn’t have known that Amirov would get sick, but even at that time the consensus outside of the team seemed to be that he wasn’t the best use of the pick.

There was certainly no guarantee that the pick would turn out to be a better player than Kapanen, but Toronto wanted to clear some cap space. I think they were also motivated by the opportunity to get back almost the same pick they had given up to unload Marleau.
Forum: NHL SigningsSep. 12 at 5:20 p.m.
Forum: NHL SigningsSep. 12 at 3:33 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>UpsideDownQue</b></div><div>I posted this in the offseason discussion thread but ill cross post it here too:

Interesting thing I found with Rodrigues - he seemed to have his best analytical seasons when playing the most minutes. 18-19 and 21-22 were by far his highest avg TOI seasons and both of them are his best analytical seasons. I wonder if hes just the kind of player who can play at a high level but only when put in larger roles with better linemates. If thats the case then it fits well with COL since he can take the reigns at 2C and be insulated with Lehkonen and Rantanen as strong wingers

<img class="for_img" src="https://i.imgur.com/1fnXfBnh.png" alt="1fnXfBnh.png"></div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Brian2016</b></div><div>I would've thought that Newhook or Compher had the inside track to that 2C spot. I guess you could slot ER there instead.</div></div>

This is interesting. Others have also pointed out that Rodrigues needs to be in a top-6 role to be effective. Colorado must know that, so I wonder if they are considering him for that open 2C slot. I suspect they’re still hoping that Newhook can do it, but if it turns out that he’s not up for it yet, Rodrigues could be their Plan B. (I think they need Compher to stay on the third line.) They’re not paying him a 2C salary, so if he doesn’t end up on the second line it’s still not a bad investment.

This would be similar to Carolina, where I think they’ve been anticipating Kotkaniemi being the new 2C, but they brought in Paul Stastny on a cheap one-year deal just in case.
Forum: NHL TradesSep. 12 at 2:45 p.m.
Forum: NHL TradesSep. 4 at 10:08 a.m.
Forum: NHL SigningsSep. 4 at 8:48 a.m.
Forum: NHL TradesSep. 2 at 10:48 a.m.
Forum: NHL SigningsSep. 2 at 10:21 a.m.
Forum: NHL SigningsSep. 2 at 9:54 a.m.
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