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leafhype

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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 11, 2019 at 12:21 p.m.
Thread: 1 Trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>bradpiercebp</b></div><div>this seems like a really bad trade but maybe im misinformed.. who is this defensemen that you are in love with?</div></div>

<a href="https://theathletic.com/835754/2019/02/25/stimson-how-ahl-development-for-several-players-may-have-cost-the-sabres-at-the-nhl-level-this-year/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://theathletic.com/835754/2019/02/25/stimson-how-ahl-development-for-several-players-may-have-cost-the-sabres-at-the-nhl-level-this-year/</a>

Ryan Stimson talks about him there. Just a concept that I think Bracco's value might be best served going after a young D with upside (unless you lose Marner and need to see if you can get him to reach his ceiling). Someone like Pilut seems like he could crush 3rd pairing minutes with maybe 2nd pair LD upside.

Ultimately the leafs 2RD is Travis Dermott I think. Starting as ealy as later next season once he gets up to speed post injury.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 10, 2019 at 1:41 p.m.
Thread: Evolving Wild Projections Based Roster
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ryminister_27</b></div><div>He's been used improperly in an offensive role. That's why the numbers and analytics are low. If he played PP minutes like he did in his rookie year, he'd produce more. That was a coaching mistake but he fell lower on the depth chart because of development from Reilly and Gardiner. Leafs only used 1 d-man on both PP units for the majority of the last 2 seasons

Ottawa was just one team. There's a lot of teams that fit the bill of being more likely to dump multiple contracts to take on Zaitsev's deal</div></div>

Chart does not factor in powerplay results, it's for even strength gameplay last season.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>This is the problem with leafs nation. Muzzin who was top pairing is bodrline in Toronto, zaitsev who was strong defensively without the puck covering up for gardiner poor decisions and muzzin’s sloppy play is no longer 2nd pair but maybe not even nhl good.

Sometimes I wonder if we even deserve a top pair rhd. We will just treat him like trash too. Maybe Toronto doesn’t deserve nice things...</div></div>

Having a WAR value in the late 20s - early to mid 30s among defensemen would make you a top pair defensemen to borderline top pair D yes. IIRC Gardiner's numbers dipped a bit this year towards the 30s and usually him and Muzzin were closely ranked this year. If we don't deserve nice things because we trash our good players unfairly your evaluations of both Jakes is a better example of it than me saying Zaitsev is bad as seen through both data and the eye test.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 10, 2019 at 11:58 a.m.
Thread: Evolving Wild Projections Based Roster
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ryminister_27</b></div><div>
Zaitsev is bad. He's average offensively, average defensively but absolutely god awful at breaking the puck out of his own end. He can't make good passes, and when he makes a pass it usually puts the forwards in a bad spot to make the next move.

A realistic trade comparison is the Dion Phaneuf trade to Ottawa. Toronto gets back either a low level prospect or 3rd pairing d-man, but uses their financial muscle to take back multiple short term contracts that add up to Zaitsev's number that Toronto can afford to bury in the minors and pay where another team can't. Which is why I've always said Zaitsev to Ottawa makes so much sense. Sens send Condon ($2.4M), Demelo ($900K) and a late round pick to Toronto for Zaitsev ($4.5M), an average roster player (Petan or Moore) and a couple C+ prospects. Toronto takes back $3.3M in cap, but Condon is being paid $2.4M by Ottawa to play in the AHL, #Melnyktoocheap for that, Toronto takes the contract back, bury Condon in the AHL and it saves them $3.125M in cap space from Zaitsev, but they pay the full salary of Condon. Toronto also gets a competent roster d-man in Demelo because as we seem to agree, Zaitsev is still a NHL d-man and has some value so a replacement isn't out of the question in a deal. Then Ottawa gets a young roster player and a couple prospects or picks to help their rebuild. Zaitsev would be a good fit to play with either Chabot or Brannstrom in the future and he also helps Ottawa hit the floor of the cap. It seems like the perfect fit for a deal</div></div>

I disagree with the premise that's he's average offensively. I don't think anyone would call Giradi an offensive stud, comparison seems reasonable to me I guess. <a href="https://imgur.com/a/GMrvO7p" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://imgur.com/a/GMrvO7p</a>

The concept of the Ottawa trade isn't necessarily wrong I just don't think it's likely to happenn with them specifically. I could be wrong though. Ottawa isn't the only cash poor team where Zaitsev for actual dead money to hit the floor would be appealing though. Zaitsev still needs to get paid alot in actual $, so it's not like a dream Marleau situation where his cap hit is high but he's owed no actual $. I'm optimistically of the belief that there are more old school leaning (see: dumb) front offices that see value in Zaitsev like NYI, Florida or whatever that would be willing to trade for him at some sort of gain to the Leafs or at least minimally negative value.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 10, 2019 at 11:50 a.m.
Thread: Evolving Wild Projections Based Roster
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>I never understand all these Zaitsev trades. Seems like folks think the Leafs have to give up something to dump Zaitsev and then overpay just to replace him. Seems to me the Leafs would be 100 times better off keeping Zaitsev and if cap is needed trade some high cap for future assets.
Zaitsev isn't as bad as so many make out, though his term makes him a tough trade. I think most of rants against Zaitsev are unwarranted, gee he plays heavy minutes with a good team but somehow folks thinks fringe RHD on other teams are so much better.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>I’ve not been using the upgrade zaitsev idea in most of my agm’s, just doesn’t seem practical. Looking for cheap filler to play under him always seems to be beneficial. Whether or not dubas sees it that way I’m not sure.

I know you are heavy on the nylander trade. I know “high cap” is code for nylander. A trade of kappanen and brown with a cheap bottom pair rhd gets us compliant depending on contracts of course.

Muzzin sure seems like a luxury we can’t afford. I don’t see dubas trading him but it sure seems to fit the bill of high cap. I love his physicality but unless he or Rielly play the right side it sure isn’t a good fit.</div></div>

Man Zaitsev is gruesome, like a decent showing in 7 games against Boston doesn't make me forget 3 years of him dragging down the results of anyone he plays with. Addition by subtraction is a real thing. If you can move Zaitsev for almost nothing and then roll dice on something like a Stralman rebound contract I can't see how that's possibly not worth it? I'm not wholly convinced you can't throw a dart at a board of RFA/UFA right handed D like Tim Heed and get at the very least the same results for a fraction of the cap hit. I get that Zaitsev plays alot of minutes on a good team but he gets <strong><em>buried</em></strong> in them. Muzzin a borderline top pairing D calibre player for a 4 million dollar cap hit but you're considering that we need to move him? Zaitsev's cap hit is higher<em><strong> and he's a #6, borderline #5.</strong></em>

As for Spurgeon, You're aren't getting someone like Spurgeon to replace Zaitsev. I'm trying to replace Zaitsev with Stralman here. I could hear arguments for running Dermott in that slot as well? Or a huge list of other players. Spurgeon is a monster of a player and I might feel comfortable about what his dropoff will be on a 5 year deal into his age 33-34 seasons based on his starting point and his style of play. But you could target any RD on a team that's set to move them (either because they have a surplus or because they're going to be a bad team - these names that get tossed around alot like Colin Miller, Rasmus Andersson, Faulk, etc). Realistically you're getting Spurgeon to fill the role that you're losing in Gardiner - a top pairing level D except now on the side you're weaker.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 10, 2019 at 8:54 a.m.
Thread: Evolving Wild Projections Based Roster
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>Those projections are typically low and I think with this year’s batch of rfa’s you can throw them out the window.

The zaitsev Trade is a bit ambitious.

I really like the nucks Trade.

The spurgeon Trade is looking like a good start. I think lindgren is actually a very good piece. His progression in Europe is on track and I think he will continue to grow.

Kral should be replaced, I don’t think he does anything for this trade. Right handed forward prospect would probably fit nice. Maybe SDA?

And a conditional 2nd in 2021 if spurgeon re signs.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Seems like a big price to pay for one year of Spurgeon.....five years of Kapanen and a 1st.</div></div>

The guy's proposal in the other thread included Kral and the 1st round pick that was a conditional 1st from a 2nd to begin with if Spurgeon resigned. Seems reasonable to me but SDA is maybe a prospect in place of Kral that makes the deal more appropriate.

IIRC the contract projections were mostly very accurate for last year. My only caveat to here is that their projections show 3.4x4 is the most likely outcome for Johnson and like 2x4 for Stralman. So maybe it's Johnsson that gets traded instead of Kapanen and it pushes Kapanen to play LW or something and you look for a different value project for 2nd pair RD. Maybe that means you project to have Dermott there and just try to tread water until he's healthy.

I wonder what you have to trade with Zaitsev to make a deal tbh. Maybe you have to do like Zaitsev + a pick for a lower pick. I think he might have some value in places at least to the point that the trade isn't a total death sentence to make
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 7, 2019 at 12:39 p.m.
Thread: Aggressive-Hopeful
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rush5154</b></div><div>Arguing what somebody is "worth" is a pretty difficult exercise, and yes we can use comparables all we want but we all have biases and that will corrupt the process. Almost everyone in the NHL works hard, and that would not be my selling point on Marner or any other player for that matter. Hyman works his balls off every night, but there's no way he should make more than 3-4 million on his next deal. I've already stated what Marner's advantages are from a contract negotiation point of view, along with other underlying numbers that help his case. The Leafs will do their best to reduce the importance of those numbers and values, and may use the exact points you're relaying here. In the new NHL and especially with the RFA landscape changing with contract negotiations, I think Marner is worth an eight figure deal, if you use other RFA deals before him as a market reference. Is Matthews "worth" 11.6 AAV in your opinion? Is Eichel "worth" 10 million AAV? The answer might be yes or no depending who you ask, but those contracts have been signed and the market has been set for RFAs to use as leverage in their upcoming negotiations. Marner, Point, Tkachuk, Werenski, McAvoy, Aho, Laine, Connor, Rantanen, etc. will all sign deals that appear shockingly high compared to what we're used to seeing. But it's the new era of the NHL - youth is slowly overpowering the game and GMs will be forced to make tough decisions earlier on in a player's tenure.</div></div>

It's not that hard to argue what someone is worth on a contract? What are their comparables, how likely are they to sustain their current pace relative to them (underlying stats), what do those players make, does the player perform a role or skill in higher demand, are you paying for team controlled RFA years or UFA years. I agree that Marner and Matthews are comparables, I just draw a way different conclusion than you because I look at more than just his point totals at the end of the year and go "OMG 90 POINTS 12 MILLION DOLLAR BEST PLAYER ON TEAM". All players are comparable in terms of how much value they bring their team on the ice. If you look at WAR/GAR metrics they seem to have Tavares, Matthews, Eichel above Marner in that regard. It's not because these models are designed to hate your favourite player.

My bias is data. You aren't offering me any realistic concrete data points to suggest Marner is the <strong><em>best</em></strong> RW in the league (because that's what paying him this much would mean) and should be paid as such other than winger faceoff % and 1 good season with a bunch of points beside a top 5 center in the league. Which ok, fine. If you don't make an effort to put just his points at the end of the contract year into context with how much of it was driven by a player or how sustainable/repeatable it is you can just root for great contracts like long term deals for noted 30 goal scorers Matt Moulson, David Clarkson, etc. Like <strong><em>you</em></strong> personally can believe that players should be paid equivalent to their points with no other data points other than eye test metrics like "does he look good on the penalty kill". And that may be how this negotiation goes, but I hope not.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 6, 2019 at 3:34 p.m.
Thread: Aggressive-Hopeful
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rush5154</b></div><div>
How about this:

1. If Marner signs a 7 figure deal with term (i.e., 9.5 AAV for 6 years) you can re-post on this thread that you were right and I'll gladly admit my speculation was wrong
2. If Marner signs an 8 figure deal with term (i.e,, 10.5 AAV million for 6 years) I can re-post on this thread saying that my speculation turned out to be right
3. If it's a bridge deal for 2 to 3 years with reduced AAV (i.e., 8 million AAV for 2-3 years) then it's a push and neither of us were right</div></div>

Either I'm wording this badly or you're trying to intentionally misrepresent what I'm saying. Marner may very well get like 6x10.5. I'm not at all arguing what he <strong><em>is going to get</em></strong>. I'm arguing that <strong><em>there's no way he's close to being worth that</em></strong> on the back of a single good season playing beside John freaking Tavares. His past linemates haven't produced at a different rate away from him, his underlying play driving numbers aren't super elite either defensively or offensively, etc. To argue that anything above like 8.5-9 on long term is anything other than fair value based on actual data and facts is crazy. To do so because emotionally you feel like he tries really hard or whatever is I guess a thing you could do? Try to be self aware
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 1, 2019 at 3:25 p.m.
Thread: Aggressive-Hopeful
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rush5154</b></div><div> More Darren Ferris nonsense </div></div>

What about Mark Stone literally just signing 8x9.5 for exclusively UFA years indicates that Marner is worth 8 figures for mostly RFA years in terms of a changing contract landscape? The difference that Marner makes in net $$$ by playing in <em><strong>Toronto</strong></em> CRUSHES the lack of state tax if you wanna discuss market based leverage. You wanna make a small amount more on your contract and lose god knows how many millions in endorsement deals? He could very well get 8 figures if the contract is negotiated badly on the Leafs end. But to argue that something between 8.5-9.5 on a deal with term is a "discount" is literally, completely indefensibly insane.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 30, 2019 at 10:21 a.m.
Thread: Aggressive-Hopeful
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rush5154</b></div><div> Darren Ferris burner account levels of arguing talking about winger faceoff % </div></div>

1. Man if you're going to take the stance goals shouldn't/don't matter more than assists so Mitch should get $$$ (from earlier) cause of his points this whole paragraph is moot. It shouldn't matter if Tavares scored more goals than got assists this year, his on ice production wasn't dramatically different than what he always has done (unless you think goal scoring IS worth more, in which case that diminishes Marner's value). Can't have this both ways.

I'm of the mind that production is production so more than focusing on what Marner did for Tavares (beat his career high in points by 2) you should look at what Tavares did for noted 40 goal scorer Anders Lee, noted repeat 30 goal scorer Matt Moulson, etc. The differentials in overall production these people put up WOW Tavares immediately before and after vs. the Bozak/JVR differences WOW Marner over the past few years.

2. 1 of the best RWs in the game? Sure. A superstar worth paying 8 figures for his RFA years? Only in Darren Ferris' dreams (and I guess in the minds of whoever he can convince to shill for him publicly). There's only 1 winger in the league at all making 8 digits and he had a *very* impressive resume when he signed it + the contract bought basically only UFA years. Like Mark Stone just signed an extension for 8x9.5 covering ONLY UFA years. <a href="https://imgur.com/a/XEb4Oeb" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://imgur.com/a/XEb4Oeb</a> Like, 1 of these things is not like the other.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 29, 2019 at 9:33 p.m.
Thread: Marner Offer Sheet
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Sure someone could offer sheet Marner but realistically will any team offer THAT more much to Marner that he would consider attractive to leave the Leafs. On this site many of these offer sheet to Leaf players are just anti Leaf sentiment IMO. Or it under the misconception when they the say "The Leafs can't afford to sign all of their RFAs". Fact is they can sign all their RFAs this summer, then they are going to have to work on a trade or two to be cap compliant. Tampa will over the cap when they sign Braydon Point, I don't think all these Leaf haters believe that Tampa isn't going to sign Point and just let him walk as an unsigned RFA. Of course the Tampa signs Point and works out the cap later. (Jets with Laine. Connor and Trouba are in the same situation.)</div></div>

I'm of the belief that you can give Marner the Kucherov treatment - sign EVERYONE else around him and box him into a number (like a 6mil AAV bridge if you wanna go that route for 2-3 years or 8.5-9 long term depending on what you want). Either has to sign for that, wait for an offersheet or sit.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 29, 2019 at 8:47 p.m.
Thread: Leafs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bcarlo25</b></div><div>Look at the minutes Pesce is logging in the playoffs. Then look at his contract. They aren't moving him. Then look at what other guys like Kapanen get. Reinhart is a pretty good example. He can be had for undre 2.5, but it would be for one year so he can hit arb next off season.</div></div>

<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/comparables/sam-reinhart-8852">https://www.capfriendly.com/comparables/sam-reinhart-8852</a>

Comps for Reinhart. He is the literal highest point in this list. 2nd overall pick brand value coming in strong.

Brown/Hyman the obvious comparables on the Leafs. They had incredibly similar 1 year platforms on which to negotiate. The 2x4 you're talking about in some threads is closer to a bridge you offer someone you suspect is a star player like Kucherov, Stone, Huberdeau - it's insane.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 29, 2019 at 7:04 p.m.
Thread: Marner Offer Sheet
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>blowing_the_zone</b></div><div>I find it interesting that for all the media hype on Marner getting an OS, all the Marner =12M comments made on this site, and the narrative that the leafs need to cave to Marner's demands, that we rarely, if ever, see AMGs where Marner gets an OS, or a team trades for him. Why? Because it really isn't a likely situation, and as such, at some point Ferris's bluff is gonna get called and Mitch comes in at a reasonable number based on leauge wide comparables.

But I like to think I have an open mind. I'm more than willing to have someone prove me wrong..</div></div>

Yeah, I'd like to think that even if it happened it wouldn't be the worst thing. I don't know that this team is dramatically worse (or better) next year and for the years going forward. Assuming that's the case kind of drains Marner's leverage. 4 1st round picks can be used to re-do this with a better 3C as well. Maybe cap crunch shakes someone like Adam Lowry loose or a different 3C with salary retention.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 29, 2019 at 6:41 p.m.
Thread: Marner Offer Sheet
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ComYog</b></div><div>Brassard at 2 mil will make every team other than Pens in on him.</div></div>
Will it? He fell off a <em><strong>*cliff*</strong></em> this year at an age where alot of people cease to have bounce back years.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>If Marner left for a offer sheet, the Leafs probably wouldn't 8m on Skinner. Can't see Vegas doing that trade. . Stralman would stay in Tampa for that price. For interest what is magically price that some team overpays for Marner and what is this magical team(s).</div></div>
No one, the thought of a team giving up 4 1sts AND 11+million in cap space is insane. But people are so convinced it's coming and that Marner has unlimited leverage to ask for anything because if the Leafs don't pay up he'll leave and they'll be doomed.
Iunno if Tampa still wants Stralman either, this was also a *rough* year for him. I suppose if you think Vegas wouldn't agree you can use 1 of the 1st round picks from the offer sheet. You can almost think of Stralman as a placeholder the same way I'm malleable about who the 3C is. There's a bunch of people that I wonder about ending up as buy-low candidates this summer. Carl Hagelin maybe