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macca2119

Macca
Member Since
Jun. 17, 2019
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Colorado Avalanche
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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 29 at 2:49 p.m.
Thread: New York Islanders
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dannibalcorpse</b></div><div>Nelson has been productive in a less-offensively tilted role before he really popped off in 2021-22.

2018-19 through 2020-21 he was getting more than 50% of his starts in the D-zone and was typically 6th on the team in PP TOI (so borderline PP1/2 I'd argue.) He still averaged nearly 28 goals/82 GP and was on ice for 54.3% of the goals scored 5v5.

I also don't know where you're getting Johansen scoring at .33 PPG and Nelson scoring at .5 PPG? Nelson has 46 points in 58 GP (.79 PPG) and 30 of those at 5v5 (0.52). Johansen has 22 points in 60 GP (0.37) and only 15 of those at 5v5 (0.25) No matter how you slice it, Nelson is literally scoring twice as much as RyJo this year.</div></div>

58 17 13 30
60 9 6 15

Fair enough, I missed a button click when I went for 5v5 stats. I didn't dive further into O-Zone starts, other than Nelson gets 60% of his starts in the o-zone (I'm not doing the dive into o-zone starts to points scored on those shifts), but he is definitely benefiting from that, and he would not get that in Denver. MacKinnon is 64% all situations and the next closest is RyJo at 46%. Nelson is 100% an upgrade over RyJo but again, the Avs cannot afford the contract and I think would be unwilling to part with Ritchie in any deal that is not a massive long term upgrade at 2C (e.g. Middlestat)
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 29 at 9:15 a.m.
Thread: New York Islanders
I hate a "Avs pass" post...

I started to think Nelson for RyJo might be interesting, but the numbers do not appear to justify that price. Keep in mind that the Avs 1st PP unit plays 80%+ of the PP, so Nelson's PP contributions would not really be of value. So, I wanted to focus on 5v5 numbers.

5v5
RyJo 9G 6A 53.6 FO% 46.1% OZ Starts 49.4 Corsi 2 yrs @ $4M
Nelson 17G 13A 46.4 FO% 59.3% OZ Starts 50.3 Corsi 2yrs @$6M

My biggest concern is, in additional to the lack of expected PP time, what happens to Nelsons numbers when his OZ start time gets cut down (MacKinnon gets 72% of his starts in the OZ and that is not going down).
Basically the Avs would be giving up a first AND their top prospect (in a position of need) to move from RyJo's .33 ppg to Nelson's .5 ppg

Finally, the Avs cannot absorb the $2m difference in the contract.

Avs Pass ;)