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mk458
MK458
Member Since
Dec. 23, 2017
Favourite Team
Edmonton Oilers
2nd Favourite Team
Winnipeg Jets
Forum Posts
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 10 at 1:25 p.m.
Thread:
Batherson to Edmonton
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>csick</b></div><div>He’d get 100+ pts with McDavid at 5 mil. But pass right on ahead</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>cody_tugak</b></div><div>I feel like Holloway will at best be a 3rd Lw, if you look at the Oilers roster closely, McDavid needs someone other than Draisaitl or RNH to play with, I think Batherson would complement McDavid huge</div></div>
Batherson would be wicked with McDavid. That said they can't afford him in this deal. They also need what Foegele brings. They pass cause they just can't do it.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 10 at 1:02 p.m.
Thread:
Batherson to Edmonton
Without even factoring in the cap, I'd pass on that from EDM's perspective.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jan. 8 at 1:43 p.m.
Thread:
Toronto Maple Leafs signed William Nylander (8 Years / $11,500,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>First of all, Nylander is worth 11 mil. I've been saying this for a long time now. If you don't think so - you're simply wrong
Second, he signed at a similar cap% as comparable wingers at the time like Benn, Stone, and Perry. Don't let the raw number fool you this isnt out of the blue.
Third and most importantly, Trev completely ****ed this negotiation up. If they were scared Nylander might walk - the time to "cave in" was in the summer. As it stands Nylander is at peak value and there is no reason to cave now 30 some odd games after refusing to go above 9mil. They should have waited out the year and let Reinhart get a comparable deal or let Willie cool off. Even if he didn't they could always just pay him this in June no problem. No one in the league can match 92 million dollars!
There was no risk!
What a horrible GM Trev has turned out to be. Worst fears confirmed about him
Fourth, I am very exited to have Willie be a life long leaf. Amazing player who has the perfect mentality for the market. Ideal Leaf and for that reason its still a good deal even with Trev being a panicky idiot.
I expect CF to vote it down. They also voted down both Matthews deals so that should tell you how little you should value that
Of course there are the usual worries about deals like this aging but I don't see any reason to suggest the risk is any more than any other comparable star so whatever. Would have liked us to get this down to 5 or 6 years given the aav, but I'll live with it.
<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GDVC7IAWgAI_jSc?format=jpg&name=small" alt="GDVC7IAWgAI_jSc?format=jpg&name=small">
I figure he will drop down to somewhere around a point per game to a 100 point pace for the next few years, and that's fine for what he will cost</div></div>
This is pretty bang on. This contract is far better than losing Nylander for nothing, and if you were trying to win this player over to your team, you sign it in a heartbeat.
The big L here for BT is that he allowed it to get to this point. There was a lot of risk of this happening, and it was obviously there. Expectations changed the second the NHL announced a cap increase for next season, and throw in Nylander's point streak and another year where he just plain looks better than the year prior (which has been Nylander's trajectory) and you basically have a GM that lit $1.5M in cap space on fire trying to save $500K. That's a terrible bet.
Reality is, when the Leafs ask was just under $9M and Nylander was at $10M, they should have realized there was more for Nylander to gain than the Leafs, and should have hammered away at it until a deal was done in the offseason. You could have just caved and gave him $10M and that would have been a win in hindsight.
BT's decision making has been mostly very poor with Toronto, but I think it's Shanahan that really should be feeling the heat. Forget about what people think of Dubas, but how does a president of hockey operations go from offering an extension to Dubas to firing him over a 48 hour period with no backup plan in place? What other organization would fire their GM in the middle of their competitive window? I mean I get the lack of playoff wins, but still, no other team would fire a GM of a team that has the record that the Leafs had over the last 5 seasons, especially going into an absolutely critical 24 month window where every star forward will need a new contract.
If this Leafs core ever wins, it's now going to be in spite of management, not assisted by it.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jan. 8 at 1:33 p.m.
Thread:
Toronto Maple Leafs signed William Nylander (8 Years / $11,500,000 AAV)
Quick-and-dirty comparison to previous big winger deals.
With age at signing, PPG for last 82 (1yr), 164 (2yr), 246 (3yr) team games along with % of cap for first year of deal.
NAME (age)…................1yr…......2yr….....3yr…...Cap%
Nylander (27.7 yrs)…...1.21…...1.13…...1.05…...13.1%
Meier (26.7 yrs)….........0.86…...0.92…...0.83…...10.5%
Pastrnak (26.8 yrs)…....1.38…...1.16…...1.17…...13.5%
Huberdeau (29.2 yrs)..1.44…...1.22…...1.23…...12.7%
Tkachuk (24.6 yrs)….....1.27…...1.05…...0.97…...11.5%
Gaudreau (28.9 yrs)…..1.40…...1.14…...1.04…...11.8%
Forsberg (27.9 yrs)…....1.22…...0.99…...0.92…...10.3%
Panarin (27.7 yrs)…......1.10…...1.06…...1.00…...14.3%
Skinner (27.1 yrs)…......0.77…...0.68…...0.72…...11.0%
Stone (26.8 yrs)….........1.05…...1.02…...0.95…...11.7%
Seguin (26.6 yrs)….......0.95…...0.91…...0.94…...12.1%
Kucherov (25.1 yrs)…..1.25…...1.20…...1.09…...11.9%
Benn (27.0 yrs)…..........1.09…...1.07…...1.04…...13.0%
Stamkos (26.4 yrs)…....0.86…...0.86…...0.90…...11.6%
Voracek (26 yrs)…........0.99…...0.87…...0.87…...11.3%
Kane (25.6 yrs)…..........1.00…...0.99…...0.98…...14.7%
Giroux (25.5 yrs)….......1.06…...1.10…...0.98…...12.0%
Perry (27.8 yrs)….........0.79…...0.97…...0.93…...13.4%
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 5 at 5:14 p.m.
Thread:
How much does Monahan cost
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>It's been said at least 1 million times a 1st + 3rd, if we don't get that type of offer we keep and resign him</div></div>
A million times by just you? I don't see 1st and 3rd by many hab fans themselves
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 5 at 4:22 p.m.
Thread:
How much does Monahan cost
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>batman</b></div></div>
Brassard was 34 years old and everyone knew he wasnt that player. He had 5 of his 16 points in the first 3 games so he had gone 11 points in 28 games the rest of the way.
Marcus johansen at the point he was traded to washington had not taken 1500 faceoffs total in the 10 years including the trade year. For reference sean monahans 82 game average is 1336 faceoffs. That is not remotely a centre thats a winger who is the secondary on faceoffs (its less than 3 per game)
Jeff carter again was 35 is had multiple unproductive seasons.
Tyler ennis was a undersized winger who again wasnt productive before the spurt right before the trade.
A general reminder sean monahan over the last 10 years has been below a .5 ppg once. He has been a ppg player and has more seasons on a 55+ point pace than ones he wasnt.
This isnt a cherrypicked oh he happened to be this guy for 20 games to inflate stats. He has been a 2nd line centre or better for the vast majority of the last decade and is still one today.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 5 at 3:27 p.m.
Thread:
How much does Monahan cost
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mk458</b></div><div>What about 2 seconds with one of them turning into a 1st if the Oilers make it to the conference finals if the Oilers make it to the conference finals?
I totally see where you're coming from asking for a 1st rounder, but there should be a lot of centers availabe this deadline: Jason Dickinson (12 g 18 pts), Henrique (10 g 19 pts), Jack Roslovic (0.5 ppg), and potentially Lindholm (8g 25 pts), Wennberg (5g 15 pts), and Pinto just to name a few.
If all you could get was a 2nd that could turn into a 1st based on conditions, would that not be enough to make Montreal bite on a player they were paid to acquire?</div></div>
How many of those can you fit under the cap? I'm asking because contenders trading for other players will need to pay for salary retention, and usually have very little cap space (BOS, TB, TOR, and of course EDM). Monahan for 500k (retained 50% for half a season) is quite a deal and will come with a premium IMO.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 5 at 3:19 p.m.
Thread:
How much does Monahan cost
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mk458</b></div><div>What about 2 seconds with one of them turning into a 1st if the Oilers make it to the conference finals if the Oilers make it to the conference finals?
I totally see where you're coming from asking for a 1st rounder, but there should be a lot of centers availabe this deadline: Jason Dickinson (12 g 18 pts), Henrique (10 g 19 pts), Jack Roslovic (0.5 ppg), and potentially Lindholm (8g 25 pts), Wennberg (5g 15 pts), and Pinto just to name a few.
If all you could get was a 2nd that could turn into a 1st based on conditions, would that not be enough to make Montreal bite on a player they were paid to acquire?</div></div>
Something like Lavoie and a 2nd might work, but it's hard to say how high teams are willing to go this year because so many went hard last year.
A 1st is more likely to get it done, but there might be multiple offers of a 2nd + prospect to choose from instead, then it comes down to who Montreal wants.
It may be worth it for Edmonton to offer a 1st(+) simply because he's the best value in performance vs cap at the TDL and they can avoid the higher cost of dumping Campbell for at least this year while still adding at the deadline.
They should also be highly interested in Kovacevic should he be available, for much the same reason.
Edmonton needs to get value wherever they can to shore up their roster for serious runs and that's going to mean paying a price. Tampa never bulked at paying high prices to do what was necessary and that's the kind of approach you need through a stagnant cap period.
There is no future for Edmonton. McDavid is it. Nothing matters beyond getting a cup while they have him.
They have to make the right moves, but they have to be aggressively pursuing that goal every year.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 5 at 2:57 p.m.
Thread:
How much does Monahan cost
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mk458</b></div><div>What about 2 2nds and a prospect? I changed the trade. Beau Akey is one of Edmontons few RHD prospects so they likely won't make him available</div></div>
i would definitly do it. i think we will fall a little bit short of a first, mostly for the same reasons you mentioned (defensive game, not really physical). I would do that trade for sure.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 5 at 2:53 p.m.
Thread:
How much does Monahan cost
I think its important to remember the price at the tdl are usually the highest they are at any point.
Mccabe and lafferty last year gpt a 1st and 2nd.
Bertuzzi in a sub .5 ppg season got a 1st
Tanner jeannot got a full draft class
Meier got multiple 1sts and 2nds in picks and prospects with no extension.
Oreilly (sub .5 ppg) and acciari got a 1st 2nd 3rd
Theres plenty of guys who may not seem "worth" their return but the situation makes it.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 5 at 2:53 p.m.
Thread:
How much does Monahan cost
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mk458</b></div><div>That's a fair point! I'd counter with the fact that both those players might have a reputation for being better defensively and better penalty killers than Monahan. I do think Monahan's value could be lessened by the fact that he was dumped a year ago, but you may be right and Montreal won't let him go for less than a first!</div></div>
True. Monahan still has a decent defensive game and has more skill to enhance a powerplay, unlike the other 2 (might not be as usefull for EDM, but for other contenders yes).
There's never two players identical, but I believe similar position, caphit, TOI, goals, points, and FO% is close enough.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 5 at 2:39 p.m.
Thread:
How much does Monahan cost
Not enough
XB and 2nd or 3rd pick
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 5 at 2:41 p.m.
Thread:
How much does Monahan cost
Sean Monahan 2024 (between $1-2M) plays 18 minutes/game, projected 20G 48P, win 57.5% of faceoffs
Comparables:
<em>- Andrew Copp</em> 2022 ($2,3M) plays 18 minutes/game, 21G 53P, win 53% of faceoffs : <em>1st (conditional to 2 rounds won), 2nd,5th + Morgan Barron</em>
<em>- JG Pageau</em> 2021 ($3,1M) plays 19 minutes/game, 26G 42P, win 56.5% of faceoffs : <em>1st, 3rd (+ conditional 2nd if NYI won the cup)</em>
When habs fans say <strong>a conditional 1st (let say 50% of playoffs games played) +3rd </strong>, they give an educated opinion.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Oilers_29</b></div><div>Ahahha go resign him then cause no GM with half a brain is gonna pay that ridiculous price keep dreaming though</div></div>
You put words one after another but it doesnt mean anything. Such attitude, much sassiness.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 5 at 2:31 p.m.
Thread:
How much does Monahan cost
make it this years second and its closer to fair. would like to get maybe Beau Akey as a prospect too.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 5 at 2:37 p.m.
Thread:
How much does Monahan cost
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>It's been said at least 1 million times a 1st + 3rd, if we don't get that type of offer we keep and resign him</div></div>
Ahahha go resign him then cause no GM with half a brain is gonna pay that ridiculous price keep dreaming though
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 5 at 2:33 p.m.
Thread:
How much does Monahan cost
There is a heck of a difference between 6.1 mill and 1.9 mill (retaining to 950K).
He is very reliable so MTL can sign him if they don't get the wanted price at deadline
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 5 at 2:32 p.m.
Thread:
How much does Monahan cost
It's been said at least 1 million times a 1st + 3rd, if we don't get that type of offer we keep and resign him
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 5 at 2:09 p.m.
Thread:
My big 4 contracts guess
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kellen</b></div><div>just a guess, relax losers</div></div>
😂 a lil sensitive?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 29, 2023 at 2:52 p.m.
Thread:
Hawks Trade Deadline
Both players have no value to Winnipeg.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 23, 2023 at 2:27 a.m.
Thread:
Flames trade Big 3 for mostly youth
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Real_MC_Hockey</b></div><div>I see your point but I was assuming Tanev re-signs for a couple years and DeSimone is perfect 7th D who will play 6 more years unlike Suter and the idea is to win the Stanley Cup ASAP in Dallas. again the salary cap numbers have to work, thus this trade.
Yah, again, first you overvalue a guy with concussion history and undervalue the 2 Flames…and I would assume both Hanifin and Lindholm re-signs in Colorado, both are excellent core players and not old. Both could help Colorado win Cups for years. Salary caps work too!</div></div>
There is zero chance COL could re-sign both, first you have only $5M going out in salary and $9.5M coming in they couldn’t even make that work without straight moving somebody like Girard out for our futures then you have the problem of Jack Johnson playing in the top 4 and next year how do they sign both and actually field a team. and concussion history bro he missed games last year with an LBI not a concussion.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 23, 2023 at 1:16 a.m.
Thread:
Flames trade Big 3 for mostly youth
Suter isn't waiving his NMC to Calgary. And they probably aren't going to trade Harley either
Even less likely that Colorado makes Byram available
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 13, 2023 at 6:39 p.m.
Thread:
If he was traded what is his value and who would be interested
He is 10x more valuable to the Flames than he is on the market. He should be kept as a mentor for all our young wingers. He is the embodiment of how to be a strong 2-way winger. Not to mention with Lindholm and potentially Dube, Mange, and Yegor being moved in the next 2 years we will need guys that can PK besides just Backlund
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 13, 2023 at 6:29 p.m.
Thread:
If he was traded what is his value and who would be interested
Not very many teams in the league that can even afford his cap him
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 13, 2023 at 1:19 p.m.
Thread:
Stamkos trade
Several problems here.
First: Stamkos as recently as September said he Guarantees he'll be here until his contract expires.
Second If they convince him to waive it's costing a lot more he's still producing at a 1.2 ppg pace and has missed 4 regular and post season games since the start of 21/22.
so, this isn't close to securing his services especially with max retention.
Third that's a garbage return for Jeannot after the cost to acquire him. Especially since he's doing exactly as they expect.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 13, 2023 at 12:41 p.m.
Thread:
Zegras
Even with retention, Lyubushkin isn't enough of a meaningful upgrade to spend a 2nd on. Given their cap situation, they also can't really afford (technically they CAN, but they would be very unwise to) to increase their cap expenditure at the 3RD position.
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