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mmhawk23

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Feb. 15, 2022
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Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 15, 2022 at 4:12 p.m.
Thread: 2022 Predictions - Past Trends over Rankings
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LeafsDude</b></div><div>Very well put together. I think if CBJ wants Savoie, they'll take him at 6 and if they get KK is could be at 12 in maybe even later. Many don't project him to go so high although he definitely should. If McGroarty is available at 25 you'd have to think the Leafs take him. They interviewed him and he fits the bill all too well: big bodied, skilled shooter who has a clear flaw in his game that the Leafs may bank on to get him lower. His skating needs some work but the Leafs haven't shied away from that in the past. Took a chance on the undrafted Gogolev who needed work on his skating. I think he would be perfect for the Leafs</div></div>

Hadn't thought about McGroarty to the Leafs but that makes total sense. After top ~12-14 picks I get a lot less sure just because I've seen less tape, and it's more of a teams go for their guy anyway like your Leafs-RM example.

I think CBJ would be leaping for joy for KK at 12. Good for them if they can do it. I just absolutely love the player, and think his defensive flaws are more addressable than some other Dmen, and that's what causes guys to rise vs. mock drafts. For his defensive flaws -- I think he <em>reads</em> the play well, but sometimes makes too aggressive a move on that read and gets beat. But I actually think he does read well which makes it a lot easier to improve decision-making over time than if you just stink at reading plays entirely. Kind of how I view Simon Edvinsson's progression from last year to this year, just a lesser version. Then offensively and in transition, breaking out, collecting dump-ins and turning them into neutral &amp; offensive zone possessions, man he is good.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 15, 2022 at 1:54 p.m.
Thread: 2022 Predictions - Past Trends over Rankings
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Skyraider112</b></div><div>Wow you put a lot of hard work and effort into this and I really appreciate that. I've been casually reading up on some prospects but you gave a nice little overview of each one here and I felt I learned quite a bit from reading it. Of course as a Sabres fan, I'm pumped for the draft and excited to see who we snag with the 3 firsts. I'm really hoping we end up with Chelsey, whether that's at 16th or 28th overall. He would be the perfect compliment to Power long term. Nazar is the perfect pick for Buffalo at #9 unless somehow an unexpected top draftee falls there. Adams has done some solid drafting and I like how he isn't afraid to move up to snag the guy he really wants (ex: Peterka).

Once again, thanks for putting this together.</div></div>

I LOVED Peterka in 2020. Didn't think he'd last until the 2nd round and was pretty upset when the wings passed on him (although Wallinder is looking pretty good). The other guy I liked was Noel Gunler, but the jury still feels out much more so for him...

I like Nazar a lot. Although honestly I personally have a lot of trouble evaluating the USNTDP kids. I struggle to project them much moreso than for kids in the Euro leagues that I watch more regularly. The weirdness of playing USHL and college teams makes me kind of dizzy, too. Good thing I'm not an actual scout lol.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 15, 2022 at 1:48 p.m.
Thread: 2022 Predictions - Past Trends over Rankings
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TZ11</b></div><div>"Ivan is a top-5, maybe top-3 player in this draft at full strength."

No, he isn't. He started falling before his cancer diagnosis, he should be in the 18-25 range when healthy.</div></div>

This is a tricky one. I had heard from a friend in the industry he starting having health issues well in advance, then ultimately the diagnosis, and unclear what was causing his pre-diagnosis drop. I'm sure GMs have / are vetting what exactly was going on there, but I just don't know enough. So absolutely, my statement is giving him a very sizeable benefit of doubt on why he declined. Could be wrong and may be non-illness related play drop in which case you're right. Glad I'm not the GM who has to evaluate this situation, it sucks all around and I'd hate to be making a decision on whether a kid got worse or if a kid was genuinely sick, it sucks.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 15, 2022 at 1:41 p.m.
Thread: 2022 Predictions - Past Trends over Rankings
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>christianyog</b></div><div>I like this take!

The one thing I would change is this. There is a chance that Columbus goes off the board, but I don't think it will be Korchinski. Instead it will be Mintyukov. Columbus has this trend of picking non-Canadian players. But that's just my opinion. Cooley also doesn't fall past Arizona. Size may an issue, but its been proven in years past that it doesn't matter anymore.</div></div>

I've gone back and forth on who the #3 defensemen in the draft is. I feel pretty strongly Korchinski and Mintyukov are 3 and 4 in some order, and totally could see you being right. I actually had Mintyukov to Columbus a couple weeks ago and only recently flipped watching some more of KK, but yeah this will be interesting to see play out!
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 15, 2022 at 1:39 p.m.
Thread: 2022 Predictions - Past Trends over Rankings
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Preston_Mattesich</b></div><div>Super interesting and in-depth analysis of each pick. I like Savoie and Kemell higher than where you have them just because of how explosive and flashy they both can be. I think you're spot on with Jiricek but where I disagree is the difference between him and Nemec. I think both guys are comparable defensively but Jiricek's proven offensive upside puts him head and shoulders above Nemec who in my opinion has been inconsistent on offense at best. Great mock though.</div></div>

My take historically as been the same as yours -- Jiricek &gt; Nemec by a decent gap. Maybe I've softened up a little too much the past few weeks on Nemec! But yeah, if I'm personally the GM I take DJ first for sure.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 14, 2022 at 7:01 p.m.
Thread: Mock Draft based on likelihood
I think you've made a really nice mock here, that is much more realistic than most on this site. Good work! People get really married to prospect rankings and don't actually pay as much attention to trends, or for that matter how players' stocks change throughout a season.

I agree that big defensemen with high ceilings will go earlier. Korchisnki Top-10 feels very possible. Bichsel high as well, I have him at 15. I'm a Wings fan and have been hoping for months Kasper is our pick, so happy to see him climb.

And most of all, I think people fall in love with smaller skill players who dominate the weaker CHL leagues where there is more time and space, and then struggle when that space evaporates in the pros. Savoie is the clearest example -- I could easily see him falling outside the Top-10, but most people think that's crazy. Same for Nazar. Lekkerimaki is weak in the D zone so I could see him falling as well. Mintyukov, Chesley, Pickering I think will surprise the masses in how high they go.

Good work!
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 3, 2022 at 9:16 a.m.
Thread: 2022 Predictions
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Playersoverpayed</b></div><div>That's very realistic draft.
Often D-men are taken earlier than expected and usually small forwards fall a few spots lower than fans expect. I personally would be very surprised if Korchinski would be available at no. 30 (especially with Seattle going into WHL finale), but every draft there are a few risers and fallers.</div></div>

Thanks! Agree that was the general theme. There's a whole host of good defensemen that fit a Top-4 NHL mold who hover from 15-50 in most prospect rankings, and in some order or another, I bet most or all go top-25.

In addition to small forwards falling, there's a smaller theme behind players like Lekkerimaki who are less reliable in the D-zone falling, while guys like Kasper who play a 200-ft game are valued more highly.