Avs 2020s Dynasty
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Forum: Armchair-GM5 hours ago
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Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 11:47 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 7:52 pm
Thread: Boeser
if they made him available then I woudnt mind checking in on Boesers price tag (even though they are probably asking for too much) but imo hes kinda overrated. Before this season he was averaging 66.1% oZS% at even strength in his career while producing 0.83P/GP (68 point pace over a full season) with shooting percentages of 16.0%, 16.2%, and 12.4% from 16-17 to 18-19. He was producing well but was almost exclusively being used on offense which boosted his point totals. Then this season his even strength oZS% dropped to 55.4% and his shooting percentage dropped to 9.5%. No wonder his point production dropped this season - he was finally being given a more balanced role (at least at even strength) as opposed to the pure offensive role he was used to before. One of the biggest red flags for me though is his PP time, which has increased every single season from 1:46, to 2:55, to 3:32, and now to 4:07 per game this season. Despite this much PP time this season (which by the way is the 3rd most per game in the league) his PPP/60 was 3.58 (which ranked 207th in the league among players who average over 1:00 PP time per game) . I should mention that VANs PP% ranked 4th in the league, so its not like he was stuck with no help on the PP either.

Burakovsky (20+25=45 in 58GP) actually had a very similar season to Boeser. Both had identical oZs% of 55.4% at even strength, and nearly identical offensive production (Burakovsky 20+25=45 in 58GP, Boeser 16+29=45 in 57GP). I do expect Burakovsky's S% to regress (just like Boeser's has) but when you consider that Boeser had over 3 mins more ice time per game, 1:44 of which came on the PP, I dont think there is a huge gap there.

Boeser is viewed as a 1st line winger but in reality he needs extremely offense-heavy usage as well as an inflated S% to produce those numbers. Once he was put in a more balanced role (which was still very offense heavy with his PP time) his offense regressed to that of a mid-high end 2nd line winger. If he was given PP time based on his production instead of based on his reputation I would expect his production to drop even more. On the Avs I would expect 2nd line even strength and 2nd unit PP usage which would drop both his overall toi and especially his PP toi. Even if his S% bounces back to around 12% I dont see how his production would reach what it has before if hes given less-sheltered minutes
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 12:22 pm
Thread: Wowzas