moli92

Cale 4 Calder
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Aug 11, 2017
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Colorado Avalanche
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Forum: Armchair-GMTue at 1:20 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMTue at 12:19 am
Thread: Helping avalanche
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>habs1289</b></div><div>Hahaha wow okay so basically you’re saying that every goalie faces the exact same type of high scoring chances same amount of one timers, breakaways, in tight, 2 on 1’s . 3 on 1’s etc the list goes on sweet stats you’re throwing out there</div></div>

What are you taking about? Thats not at all what im saying. The sheer number of high danger chances a goalie faces doesnt necessarily change his save percentage in high danger situations. For example: lets say, on average, goalie A faces 5 high danger shots per game and saves 3 of them, while goalie B faces 10 high danger chances and saves 8 of them. In this situation Goalie B still has a better high danger sv% despite having more high danger chances against per game. You cant use the argument "____ has a low HDSv% because he faces more high danger chances" as an excuse for a low HDSv%. If anything, more high danger chances against would increase the sample size which would increase the accuracy of the data.

As for the dSv%, this stat is a function of expected xSv% (expected save percentage). xSv% is already adjusted for shot quality (shot type, shot distance, shot angle, rebounds, rush shots, and strength state as per <a href="http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/2016/03/03/shot-quality-and-expected-goals-part-i/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">corsica hockey</a>), so its an apples-to-apples comparison relative to league average.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 11:05 pm
Thread: Helping avalanche
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>habs1289</b></div><div>No I don’t look at those kinds of stats cause they never tell the whole story if your facing twice as many high scoring chances obviously your “HDSP” is going to falter not too mention those high danger scoring chances your speaking of can be completely different for every goalie (one goalie can face twice as many one-time opportunities from the slot than the next goalie) so those stats tell me nothing</div></div>

its a percentage... facing more chances dont wont bring down the average HDSv%. I literally found the exact stats that you were talking about in this comment:

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>habs1289</b></div><div>So you’re telling me that if they swapped roles (grubes on mtl and price on col) that there stats would still be the same as right now ?? Definitely not prices numbers would be outstanding if he played on Colorado I suggest you watch a few Montreal games before talking about price again the <strong>high quality scoring chances</strong> he faces on a nightly basis are second to no one</div></div>

The metrics are literally adjusted for exactly what you asked for, just accept that Grubauer is better than Price
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 9:53 pm
Thread: Helping avalanche
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>habs1289</b></div><div>So you’re telling me that if they swapped roles (grubes on mtl and price on col) that there stats would still be the same as right now ?? Definitely not prices numbers would be outstanding if he played on Colorado I suggest you watch a few Montreal games before talking about price again the high quality scoring chances he faces on a nightly basis are second to no one</div></div>

Yes. Have you looked into any adjusted metrics?

Price has a HDSv% (high danger save percentage) of 80.58% and a dSv% (delta save percentage = save percentage - expected save percentage) of -1.06%.

Grubauer has a HDSv% of 85.51% and a dSv% of +1.12%.

Its not 2015 anymore

EDIT: just want to clarify these stats are from this season at 5v5 so dont complain about PP/PK rates skewing results