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pavelisgoat

Member Since
Apr. 3, 2017
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Detroit Red Wings
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Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 6 at 2:57 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 2 at 9:05 a.m.
Thread: Trade Deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>Absolutely not. Taking a package that is not what you want when plenty of other teams will offer better is the opposite of insanity. You have loads of excellent D prospects, and picked probably the last one the Blues would want, mostly because he is not the type of player they want. It's not always about what you think the "value" is, guys. There's other factors, namely fit. ASP does not fit. You have multiple other prospects who do fit very well.</div></div>

Look man, I completely agree on the value vs fit argument. However, if you get offered Asp and a first, there’s no way you don’t take it. If you don’t want Asp, you trade him for probably 2 1sts and boom - you have a way better return than anyone is going to give you.

Maybe the Blues are asking for someone else, but Edvinsson is a non starter. So if you want Johansson and a first, sure it’s more likely from both sides, but hypothetically you’re massively cheating yourself on value
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 24 at 3:11 a.m.
Thread: Playing the kids
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jfkst1</b></div><div>They're not that young. The nature of the sport and league itself is randomness and parity. Making the data even more reliable compared to eye tests. And as I already stated, there is close to a 0% chance anyone on this site is watching enough hockey to hold a useful eye test opinion in the first place. I'm just willing to admit that fact whereas fans that probably only watch their own team have zero frame of reference without analytics.</div></div>

I watch 2 games most nights. I trust my eye test more than I trust analytics. I don’t expect you to trust my eye test more than analytics though if you believe in them. I just think they’re deeply flawed. Certain metrics can tell you part of the story, but I personally only like to use them to confirm or challenge something I thought I saw. As a stand-alone, I think they have a long way to come. So many variables to take into account. As you say with randomness, how can you incorporate xyz into a model to account for everything, limit randomness from the metrics and so on - long way from that.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 23 at 11:44 p.m.
Thread: Playing the kids
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jfkst1</b></div><div>The collective value of the open source materials is greater than any single opinion. I also never said I "didn't watch the game." That's a false equivalency on your part to discredit me. Merely that it is impossible to watch enough video to have a sound opinion over the data available. And nothing from the data resembles positively for Chiarot either before his signing nor now. I don't have any personal vendetta against Yzerman. I do think Detroit is an utter cesspool of a city though as proven by any data.</div></div>

Hockey analytics are at such a young stage of their development that they are deeply flawed. Maybe 25 years from now you will be correct that the value of the data will outweigh even most of the best scouts of the game. But in its current state, analytical data can only scratch the surface of telling you the story, and can often be flawed for such a number of reasons. Yes, it will likely tell us that McDavid is creating a number of chances for while on the ice. But it might fail to grade harshly enough on the egregious turnover that leads to the other teams GWG. And that is only using one of the most obvious examples of analytics lining up with the eye test, mostly. Most players are not that simple to analyze.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 23 at 1:30 a.m.
Thread: Hanifin
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>The_Rocket</b></div><div>The thing is, rookie’s rarely have a huge impact. Look at the Calder race this year, maybe 4 or 5 guys total on the league are being meaningful top end contributors for their team. Everyone else is plying at replacement level.

So adding 3 rookies to play top 4 D, 3C, and 1LW is a big gamble. There will be a lot of growing pains and your limiting your ability to shelter their minutes.</div></div>

Simon is a good bet for it no matter what. So I'd leave him out of it, especially considering it would be fairly easy to shelter his minutes with this D. Basically Hanifin an upgrade on Ghost and Simon replacing Maata - should be an improvement in both cases. But I agree with you up front. I just think they're both cerebral players that I hope can handle it. Both good skaters and coming into a good environment. Not necessarily asking too much of them given their linemates. In order to improve on this year, they would need to be good, but it might be more about getting them in there so we can improve the following years.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 22 at 7:20 p.m.
Thread: Hanifin
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>The_Rocket</b></div><div>its always a risky move to build out a roster that will rely on 4 rookies with a combined 12 nhl games playing important roles</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jfstompers</b></div><div>They won't play the rookie who's ready right now nevermind 5 of them</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MoSeider53</b></div><div>We're Detroit not Buffalo, Buffalo adding a lot of rooies hasn't worked out well for them this year.</div></div>

Mazur is pencilled in as sharing that spot as in, he is competing for it. So let’s call it 3. Is that all that crazy? Our roster will be better suited to absorb it with lower changeover, and a more complete and competitive established team. That’s why they weren’t willing to do it previously. 3 top 10 picks with only 1 not having pro experience

Edit: forgot I have Cossa in here. Let’s just pretend he’s not really there.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 12 at 10:57 p.m.
Thread: Pens
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mr_Gardoki</b></div><div>Only in very specific situations. Most deadline deals are viewed as rentals and that's not debatable. He woudln't get less than Lindholm or Monahan. He'd get more.</div></div>

I disagree that he would for sure get more than Lindholm. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t see Jake being traded. Many reasons I say this:
Crosby effect is legit. I would point to how good Lindholm was with Tkachuk and Gaudreau. That’s the player I would compare to Jake with Crosby. Compare apples to apples as if they both have the luxury of really good teammates.
Lindholm is a center and that comes at a premium.
Acquiring Lindholm would be more likely to have a shot at resigning him, in theory.
I don’t see Jake fetching a first and Barlow for example, without him being resigned. And as I’ve said, I don’t see him being trade at all.
This offer is far superior than what the jets gave up for Monahan. That 2nd is maybe only 6 picks or so worse than the jets first. Chibrikov is a decent prospect and type of guy Pitt needs to add to their system. Barron and Kupari are both good bottom 6 players that would help Pitt compete while Crosby is around. If I’m the jets, it would take more than a 2nd rounder to pry Barron away from me, for an idea of value
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 10 at 3:51 a.m.
Thread: CRAZY offszn
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>The_Rocket</b></div><div>He played the most minutes on Detroit for several seasons before the trade. He has been a top pairing defenseman for several years.

He’s better than demelo and younger. This is a big upgrade for winnepeg</div></div>

As a red wings fan, I believe it’s pretty hard to judge. Hronek at times looked great in Detroit, but also often got exposed defensively. Due to our situation, he was used a lot. In Vancouver, he not only has the benefit on playing with Hughes, but they have a fairly favourable deployment. If he played with Morrissey in Winnipeg, that would be beneficial as well, but would likely require harder minutes. Tough to judge then where he would fall in line between Vancouver and Detroit in performance, as it would be somewhere in the middle. Probably more palatable for the jets would be this deal and a cheaper contract
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 31 at 3:19 a.m.