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phillyjabroni

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Mar. 8, 2017
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Forum: NHL TradesJan. 8 at 7:31 p.m.
Thread: (ANA/PHI) - Drysdale, 2025 2nd (ANA) for Gauthier
I think him skipping development camp was an early sign that it wasn't going to be a fit which is interesting considering how he shot up the board under the old command. Keith Jones mentioned before he started the blueline needs to improve and Drysdale is going to be there man. No other defensemen in the system besides Bonk and Andrea with Walker/Seeler certainly being sold off at the deadline. Gauthier is a sick player, hard to see him go but figure it is a positional need and with Michkov in the system, it makes sense. Hope this isn't a future Hall/Larsson trade but even then, I like the new front office making aggressive moves.

Edit: well he was going to refuse to sign so that's a solid return compared to a compensation 1st round pick in like 2030.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 24, 2023 at 7:25 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 18, 2023 at 10:48 p.m.
Thread: What it would take for me to be okay with a risto trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>Listen I get being a fan, and I'm glad you managed to make him be not a horrible liability every second he is on the ice, but that doesn't make him good</div></div>

They turned him into someone who can be trusted in his own end to make plays, move the puck up ice, and suppress quality chances. He's been solid this year and has progressed since last year. He is a solid 4/5 defensemen who is paid like he is a 3, which is fine for the Flyers given their cap space. The fact that they have converted him from being renowned as one of the worst defensemen in the league to someone who is actively contributing to the success of a team that nobody predicted to be 17-10-3 in their first 30 games makes him good.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 18, 2023 at 8:53 p.m.
Thread: What it would take for me to be okay with a risto trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>He is a 3rd pair dman who needs an entire system built around him to even attain those results. He is paid 5 mil for this.

He is ass dude</div></div>

I think the difference was that Buffalo had no structure (5 coaches in 7 years) and is now performing well under a team that prioritizes transition and defensive play, of which Ristolainen has seen great improvements. He has been converted to a defensive defensemen rather than a vagabond defensemen on the ice who doesn't have a defined role. The system that has completely overhauled the performance of the Flyers players. Everyone has improved and everyone has contributed to the system. Is Risto worth his current price tag? Probably not, but he certainly has improved drastically after the change of scenery and coaching change.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 18, 2023 at 1:11 p.m.
Thread: Monahans trade value
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Blazingbat11</b></div><div>This too lol, Monahan was on a 70 pts pace, and as soon as he got glued to Anderson, like everybody else getting to play with him, production took a major hit. I don't think it can be overstated how horrible Anderson has been, not just for himself, but on how he's been impacting his teammates on the ice too...

and I believe whoever will be acquiring Monahan (again, if he's available) will most likely use him on their 2nd PP unit, and use him as a solid face off centermen (he's one of the Habs best with 57% on face offs).</div></div>

I agree with your future assessment of where Monahan fits into a new lineup, but disagree that the price tag for that does not cover the benefit he provides as a 2PP man and winning face offs.

Yes Anderson weighed him down, but he still wasn’t spectacular without him either.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 18, 2023 at 1:06 p.m.
Thread: Monahans trade value
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MTLaveragefan</b></div><div>Not only deployment... you have to see who his linemates are... He has not played with the cream of the crop. But when he is paired with actually good players (like on the PP), he does great things.

Hard to get points when you have a defensive role playing with Pearson, Gallagher and Anderson.</div></div>

“You also look at how Pearson and Gallagher have played with and without Monahan, they have played far better without him than with him. Pearson sees a tremendous surge in expected results (39.90 xGF% ---&gt; 57.33 xGF%), while also having less favorable deployment (18.10 O-Zone FO / 60 ---&gt; 10.79 O-Zone FO /60). Same deal with Gallagher, (49.45 xGF% ---&gt; 59.79 xGF%) with slightly less favorable deployment. The TOI with and without Monahan is close as well, so it's a pretty even sample size.”

I wrote this back on 12/10 in a different thread so the numbers might be dated slightly, but those “anchors” play better without Monahan in a nearly 50/50 sample size split.

My larger point is that anyone paying a 1st for Monahan would be banking that he can somehow now produce at 5v5 given more favorable deployment/linemates and would have to utilize him on the PP1. Those same linemates of his play better away from him. I’m not sure how many teams have that need for him given that criteria. He’s a fine player, but a 1st for him just cannot see teams going to that price barring multiple injuries
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 18, 2023 at 11:06 a.m.
Thread: Monahans trade value
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Blazingbat11</b></div><div>This is definitely the narrative of those claiming he's not worth much. and there's "some" level of truth to it, but it's clearly over exaggerated.
Monahan plays on the 1st PP untit for MTL and has 9 PP pts. Looking at his 5V5 stats, he's producing at a rate of a 3rd line Center, so claiming he's dependent on the PP for production is not entirely true. He has negative possession metrics at 5V5 but starts 60% of the time in the defensive zone (so he's used as the Habs primary defensive center) on one of the league's worst teams. So being "lousy" at 5V5 is clearly misleading.

Boston might not have Monahan as their top priority for a Center (most likely they are targeting Lindholm), but it wouldn't surprise me if they focus on Monahan if they miss out on Lindholm.</div></div>

Monahan has 5 primary points (8 total) at 5v5 in 30 games this year. He does have a slightly unfavorable deployment (~41 o-zone start rate), but his possession and expected results are poor. I don’t think any contending team will utilize him on the top PP unit and he doesn’t have PK upside. Why wouldn’t a team just trade for Ryan Poehling instead for a much cheaper price tag?
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 18, 2023 at 10:37 a.m.
Thread: TDL DEALS
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>my_name_is_Fil</b></div><div>the past.
top 6 center valuable

center that can take draw, more valuable

2 mil amazing cap
half retained even better

hes quite possibly the best center available.

trade deadline deals are not where you can buy assets at a discount.</div></div>

I think this would be an extremely favorable market for someone like Monahan. Even conceding his injury history, he is not a player that puts any contending team over the edge. So far this year, he has 5 primary points at 5v5 in 30 games played. He has limited penalty kill usage and has extremely elevated power play numbers that are both not sustainable or enough to be a top-four forward on a contending team to take their position. He has face-off upside but contending team is going to move that much of a premium for someone like him.

Retained salary on rentals doesn't really have a lot of marginal benefit to make a player worth more in the market. It's pretty much a prerequisite since a majority of contending teams are up to the cap ceiling.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 10, 2023 at 1:26 p.m.
Thread: Trade Deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SevenLeg</b></div><div>I see where you are coming from, but I don't agree.

It's a probable late 2nd two drafts from now, and just the 5th best asset under 23 on the <a href="https://theathletic.com/4787880/2023/08/21/colorado-avalanche-nhl-prospect-pipeline-rankings/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">25th pipeline</a>.

Only 4 players under $2M have more points than Monahan this season.
1. B. Hagel (extended 8x$6.5M)
2. E. Tolvanen (RFA)
3. D. Sprong (UFA)
4. O. Tippett (RFA).

So basically, in terms of rental, only D. Sprong is ahead. J. van Riemsdyk, M. Carcone, S. Noesen are tied. So far, only Carcone plays for a team that'll likely be sellers. Of the whole group, Monahan is the only player of the group with the ability to play center.

I agree that his PP to ES points ratio is unimpressive, but one of the key reasons is his ES usage. He's one of the very few forwards on MTL's roster who can generate something on his own - others being Caufield, Suzuki and Slafkovsky. The whole strategy so far this year has been to separate Monahan from the rest at even-strength to spark those who can't generate anything.

Monahan's linemates with at least 50 minutes together at 5v5:
1. T. Pearson (172 minutes) 8 pts in 27 gp
2. B. Gallagher (157 minutes) 10 pts in 27 gp
3. J. Anderson (112 minutes) 5 pts in 27 gp
4. J. Evans (54 minutes) 8 pts in 27 gp

I believe any team willing to trade for Monahan is doing so with the hopes of using him in the top 6, based on his ability to play all three forward positions. I think he'll be more than fine when used with proper offensive players, not just rejects on a basement team as he is actually.</div></div>

It really depends on how much you value Olausson but that Athletic article also had Sean Behrens as "someone who might play NHL games" and I'd personally rate him far higher on the u23 list. I think the draft pick being in 2026 is more valuable because COL could be out of contending at that point with limited prospects coming up the pipeline and some of their forwards needing contracts (RyJo, Mikko, etc.)

Of the four players you listed that had more points than Monahan under $2M, their 5v5 production makes up, on average, ~79% of their total points between 5v5 and the PP. Monahan, only has 43% of his production derived from his 5v5 performance. Colorado heavily relies on their top-PP to basically play the entire 2 minutes and I don't see him adding so much more value over the guys currently on it.

If you also look at how Pearson and Gallagher have played with and without Monahan, they have played far better without him than with him. Pearson sees a tremendous surge in expected results (39.90 xGF% ---&gt; 57.33 xGF%), while also having less favorable deployment (18.10 O-Zone FO / 60 ---&gt; 10.79 O-Zone FO /60). Same deal with Gallagher, (49.45 xGF% ---&gt; 59.79 xGF%) with slightly less favorable deployment. The TOI with and without Monahan is close as well, so it's a pretty even sample size.

Ultimately, I really don't think contending teams are going to have Monahan in their top-six barring injuries. Yes, he is useful and can play all positions and win faceoffs, but that is a rather high price to pay for someone who does not have great results at 5v5 and won't push anyone out of their lineup spot, as well has having no cost certainty or RFA status.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 10, 2023 at 10:03 a.m.