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Forum: Armchair-GMMay 6, 2019 at 12:53
Thread: BEAST
Forum: Armchair-GMApr 25, 2019 at 12:33
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>Not true. Yes, defenseman take longer then forwards who come up at 18 to 20 but Keith in his 2nd, 3rd and 4th seasons had 31, 32, and 44 points at ages 22, 23, and 24 years old. At 25 he had 69 points. He started in the league at 21 years old full time. Adam Boqvist is 19 at the start of next season, will come up to the NHL the season after at 20 years old and after his rookie season will settle in at 21....a few years. Ian Mitchell will be 21 1/2 way through next year and will be full time at 21/22 the season after. Beaudin will be 20 at the start of next season and will come up the following season at 21. Chad Krys is 21 already and will play in the AHL. The next few season, the "four horseman" as they call them will all be ready full time and integrated into their roles. Add to it Jokiharju who's about to turn 20 and will be full time next year. That's 5 players who at least 4 will have a rookie season under their belts in a few years in the NHL. </div></div>

The Blackhawks won their first Stanley Cup in 2010 when Duncan Keith was 26. His first 2 GOOD seasons in the NHL were when he was 24 and 25. His first 2 seasons in the NHL were BAD. The young Dmen for the Blackhawks will be ready to compete for a Cup in the NHL in about 5-6 years when they're 24-26 and have had a few seasons of NHL experience after a few seasons of minor league experience. Don't believe me? Seth Jones is 24 and just now seriously competing for the Cup and a difference maker for CBJ. Please name a young TOP 4 blue line younger than 24 that won the Cup if you want to prove me wrong. Top 4 Dmen just don't have the size and experience to win the Cup until they're 24-26.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr 24, 2019 at 9:52
Forum: Armchair-GMJan 7, 2019 at 8:13
Forum: Armchair-GMJan 3, 2019 at 7:34
Forum: Armchair-GMDec 27, 2018 at 4:55
Thread: 2019 Hawks
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 25, 2018 at 1:30
I'm going to stop even looking at "Armchair-GM" rosters with a Seabrook trade in them. I'm a Blackhawks fan and Seabrook's contract is toxic and untradeable. It's time to accept that. Seabrook is not going to approve a trade to a non-Cup contending/rebuilding team and those are the teams that MIGHT consider taking him along with a couple prospects and/or some retained salary to make the cap floor but his contract is just way too long to be practical for even a rebuilding team to take on. He's signed 6 more years - longer than Toews, Kane, and Keith! The term was a HUGE mistake - it should have been a 6 year, $6m a year deal maximum or they should have let him leave as a UFA. Seabrook is going to be on the Blackhawks roster and count against the cap for them until one of the following 4 things happen: He's demoted to the AHL and clears waivers and chooses to retire (some of his contract will still count against the cap if he plays in the AHL), he retires from the NHL before his contract is over, he sustains an injury that puts him on the LTIR for the rest of his career, or another owners' lock out results in another compliance buyout (or two) being added to the cap structure and the Blackhawks use it on Seabrook (even then some of his contract would count against the cap). I saw one hockey analyst speculate that the Blackhawks might be able to make an attractive offer to the Seattle expansion team with some prospects to take Seabrook but I don't think that'll happen or that Seabrook would approve it plus players with a NMC have to be protected under the expansion draft rules.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 27, 2018 at 2:36
Thread: Hope 1
I like it. It's practical and fits within the plan that seems to be developing. Is this a Cup contender though? I don't think it is. I hope I'm wrong.

Hoping so hard the Blackhawks win the draft lottery and get Rasmus Dahlin. Barring that, they'll still end up with a good 1st round defenseman from this draft. Henri Jokiharju will be ready in two seasons. Blake Hillman is about to sign and Ian Mitchell will likely sign in a year or two and could reform their top Denver pairing. Joni Tuulola looks interesting. Forsling should round into shape in the next season or so. All of this bodes well for the current weakness of a thin/poor defense becoming a deep strength about the end of the 2019-20 season. The problem with that is that's the last year of Crawford's contract and the last year of Quenneville's contract. It's essentially the end of the "window" with this core. I doubt Crawford or Quenneville stay after that if they're still around then. Seabrook will be 34 and Keith will be 36 and they'll still be on the books for 4 and 3 more years. Plus, that's when the expansion draft and the lockout are expected to happen. Will there even be a season? If this was a team in full rebuild mode, I'd feel fine about all of the moves to build the next wave for a Cup run in a couple of years. I feel like Bowman is of two minds that aren't serving either purpose well - the future and trying to compete now. Just about the time the young D is ready to compete for a Cup, the expansion draft happens and you lose one of them and your core (Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook, Crawford) basically ages out in a lockout shortened season. I have a hard time imagining they'll be ready to be a true Cup contender again until 2020. I think Bowman knows what he's doing with the young players but I'm not convinced that Quenneville understands what to do with them and how the game is changing. DeBrincat could have competed for the Calder if he'd been paired with Kane and been a Top 6 forward for more of the season. Why can't we see a skill line like DeBrincat, Schmaltz, and Kane play a few games and see what happens? Yes, they're small but speed and skill is the way the league is going. Part of me is patient and sees the youth movement plan and part of me thinks they should trade future assets and aim for win now provided Crawford returns as himself from earlier this season (trade Keith because he'll waive his NMC to go to a contender, trade Anisimov, pursue Tavares, put Seabrook on waivers or whatever needs to happen, trade for Karlsson, sign Carlson, all the crazy, unsustainable stuff to chase the Cup for 2-3 more seasons.) I just can't see how they're going to reconcile the undeveloped youth with the aging core. They lost those team drafted/developed prospect pieces in the middle to salary cap dumps/bad contracts that they probably needed to make it work: Teravainen, Danault, Leddy, Johns, Raanta.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 6, 2018 at 5:16
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 2, 2018 at 10:18
I like the Dahlin idea. I'm really hoping the Blackhawks lose a lot of games between now and the end of the season, get as low in the standings as possible, and end up with a top 3 pick in the draft lottery that, if it's not #1, can be traded with the Preds 1st round pick (adding a prospect if necessary) for the overall #1 pick so they can take Dahlin. It'd solve a world of problems with the salary cap and the D for at least the next 3 seasons.

I also like Faulk but I think it's unlikely that the Canes part with their captain and leave a hole in their D to fill their need at center. I don't know their D that well though. Do they have all of their future Top 4 in the younger defenseman? I think the 2020 first rounder, while a good idea to save the 2019 first rounder for the trade deadline and a Cup push, is probably too far in the future to be dealt for both teams.

JVR for 6 seasons from age 28-34 (on the decline) at $6.5m a season would be tough to do with the needs on D, the young forwards they have for cheap that need to play, and cap management. While I think they sign Duclair, Hinostroza, and Hayden to reasonably modest bridge deals around $4m combined this off season, they going to have bigger contracts due for Schmaltz and Sikura in 2 years and DeBrincat the year after that. I think they'll try to keep all 3 of those guys through their next contracts.

The only unrealistic move is the Seabrook trade. No one is ever going to take that contract for 6 more seasons at nearly $7m a season without the Blackhawks retaining at least half the salary. It doesn't make sense for a team rebuilding that's trying to get to the cap floor until a couple more years have passed - it's too long. Plus, Seabrook has a NMC and isn't going to accept a trade to a non-contender. The only hopes to make the Seabrook contract go away are: the Seattle expansion draft in 2020 allows you to expose 1 player with a NMC, early retirement by Seabrook, or an owner's lockout and a new deal with the NHLPA that includes another compliance buyout or two. A regular buyout is even unrealistic because the Blackhawks would be on the hook for 2/3 of the contract anyway and the remaining years double against the cap, so even 4 years from now, Seabrook's contract would be counting against the cap for 8 more seasons. It's better to let him decline and retire on his own. The way he's playing, I suspect he might retire by age 36 anyway. Hopefully, he works hard this offseason and comes back a better player.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 20, 2018 at 12:51
Thread: Hawks TDL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ckleiner21</b></div><div>This is absolutely a valid point. His contract is an albatross. I was trying to find someone with a similar contract and Bobby Ryan is what I came up with. I was just thinking if you could move him that opens up space for a puck moving d-man. Obviously you can open up spots by trading any of Kempny, Rutta and/of Gustafsson. As for retirement, would they be on the hook for any remaining salary? I'm not positive on how that works, if he retires with years left on his contract.</div></div>

Seabrook's contract was signed after the lock out so his contract would NOT be a part of the cap recapture penalty. If there's any crazy way of looking at Seabrook's contract as a positive, it's that the Blackhawks will actually be off the hook for the rest of his contract if he retires early. So, if Seabrook retired early, they'll actually pay him less than they would have if his contract had been shorter term with higher per year salary. I doubt that was a part of the thinking (it's rumored John McDonough stepped into the negotiations for Seabrook's contract and gave him more money at max term, 8 years, when Bowman wouldn't have) when they resigned him but it would be a shrewd way of manipulating the cap if you have a secret verbal agreement with a player to retire early and still be employed by the team. There was likely some sort of veiled discussion like this surrounding Hossa's "medically necessary retirement". It greatly benefitted the Blackhawks against the cap to be able to have Hossa go on LTIR. I think both Hossa and Seabrook are grateful to the Blackhawks and would help the team in such a way. They'll be legends in Chicago for the rest of their lives.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 20, 2018 at 12:42
Thread: Hawks TDL
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 15, 2018 at 1:46
Thread: Hawks TDL
Forum: Armchair-GMDec 21, 2017 at 1:07
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hockeyplayer1</b></div><div>Idk what people expect Karlsson to be traded for but almost no team is going to throw elite players at Ottowa for a rental. That just not how it works with rentals. Now if a team had the means to resign him next year and also thought they could win the cup this year a big trade may happen where Ottowa gets an elite player in return. But there are almost no teams in that situation.

If Ottowa expects to get more than a middle 6 guy, a 2nd pairing defenseman, a 3rd pairing defenseman, a B+ prospect, and THREE first rounders they are absolutely delusional.</div></div>

That's my feeling too. The teams that could trade for Karlsson as a rental for this season and next season, before he commands $12m a season, aren't going to give up their best current roster talent to do it or they're going to miss their Cup chances for the next two playoff seasons. However, I could see throwing 3 first round picks and enough secondary talent and minor league prospects at the Sens to make up the salary cap hit for Karlsson. The Hawks need Schmaltz and DeBrincat for a Cup run. A team that wants to trade for Karlsson to resign him long term definitely would give up current roster high end talent but, if you're doing that, why would the Sens trade Karlsson in the first place? He's the best defenseman in the league. You don't trade the thing that every team covets and few teams get, a true number 1 Norris Trophy winning dman, for other other current NHL stars, you only do it with an eye for the future.

If I'm the Sens owner and I'm not planning to resign Karlsson long term at $12m a season, I'd do a full tear down and rebuild of the team at this stage. Find a downtown location for your new stadium and start building it on your own dime. Tear down your team and get a ton of picks and prospects in return, get low in the standings and high in the draft for several seasons, and retool for a youth movement so the new team could be ready to compete for a Cup in 4 or 5 years in your new stadium.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec 18, 2017 at 4:14
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 9, 2017 at 1:08
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 8, 2017 at 4:55