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Forum: NHL SigningsSep. 14, 2019 at 11:32 a.m.
Thread: Toronto Maple Leafs signed Mitchell Marner (6 Years / $10,903,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>niong108</b></div><div>Well Leafs, good luck next year with your defence. The situation looks really ugly. Cannot believe players don't care about other team members or having a stanley cup team. I mean let's be honest, next year the leafs won't be SC contenders simply cause they don't have any cap for their depth players.</div></div>

Reasons why Toronto management isn't worried:

1. Toronto's top two prospects are both Dmen who will make &lt;1M for their first three seasons. Both are knocking on the door this camp but will have until next year to further develop

2. $16M is coming off the books after this season with their forward core fully intact. Meaning 5.33M can be allotted per man if they wanted to (Rielly, Sandin, Liljegren are the other 3; Dermott is RFA)

3. Cap hit will only go up next season, and is projected to skyrocket with the new TV deal/Seattle expansion

So moving forward to 2020: Rielly is signed; Dermott won't sign for more than 5.33M unless it's long term; Sandin and Liljigren will be on ELCs; salary cap will go up, leaving ~10M+ to sign/trade for two Dmen.

Of course then you might say, what about when Rielly's contract expires? Or Andersen's? Just like when they signed Tavares - what about Matthews, Nylander, Marner? Or when Nylander signed, what about Matthews and Marner, etc etc. There's a method to Dubas&amp;Co's madness; they've considered everything moving forward. Even if push comes to shove, they trade a periphery piece like Kerfoot, Kapanen, or Johnsson. By that time, Bracco, Robertson, or SDA will be able to step in on their ELC.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 11, 2019 at 2:39 p.m.
Thread: Marner and his ego traded
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jfstompers</b></div><div>he just saw them pay Tavares Mathews and nylander then he puts up 90+ points and you think he doesn't want to be paid too. idk if thats what id call ego.</div></div>

People keep saying this as if it's true. Tavares took less than market value. Nylander started at Draisaitl money. They overpaid Matthews for the term but there would have been a legit offer sheet concern that Toronto would have had to match given his star status, thus either saving money or at the very least a huge headache. Marner doesn't have that leverage.

If 11x7 was on the table back in June it would have made Marner the highest paid winger and tied for third highest AAV in the entire league. An unprecedented offer for a 22 yo winger.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 26, 2019 at 11:19 p.m.
Thread: Spin off pt 2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bf3351</b></div><div>The Kings lacked supporting cast around Kopitar Doughty and Quick just like the blackhawks lacked supporting cast around Toews and Kane(Crawford had injuries)
I still don't understand how you think every players prime is in their early 20s.


"I'm/we're using superstars because their peaks will contrast with their lows. An average NHLer/athlete/person will follow the same trend."
That makes no sense. How does that apply to Jake Muzzin, and all the other NHLers who have grown and bettered there game. These players are called 'late bloomers' the NHL has seen very many of them. Again most players produce and have great years from ages 28-32. Super stars aside. Yeah some have really good years at ages 26 and 27 but have and will still be good till they are 32 sometimes even older.</div></div>

The average age for Stanley cup winning teams from 1965-2014 was 27.2. Of the 48 seasons, 45/48 teams had an average age of 29 or below, with the majority falling between ages 24-27. This stat isn't biased towards superstars, it's all inclusive.

Again, physiologically, your overall fitness peaks between ages 23-27. Most records/personal bests are set between these ages. That's what I'm arguing. Obviously the drop off isn't going to be sudden, so outliers will exist due to other factors, ie, experience, league variable scoring rates, teammates, coaching systems, etc.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 26, 2019 at 9:09 p.m.
Thread: Spin off pt 2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bf3351</b></div><div>And also what player in the NHL starts to drop off a little at age 28? Are you kidding me? Where do you get this ridiculous information from?</div></div>

Scientifically speaking, fast twitch muscle fibers peak at 23; your muscles are strongest at age 25; the average age for world records sports-wide is 26; endurance peaks at 27. Ovechkin just set the record for the oldest player to lead the league in scoring at 33, supposedly 1 year removed from his prime? No. Otherwise it wouldn't have been a record. Check NHL records and at age they were set at.

There is a reason why LA is in a rebuild despite having Kopitar, Doughty, Quick, Carter, Kovalchuk, Muzzin, and Martinez on their roster at the beginning of the 2018 season. You saw the same thing with Chicago. Both teams still have their championship cores yet both are on the downward trend. Pittsburgh too.

I'm/we're using superstars because their peaks will contrast with their lows. An average NHLer/athlete/person will follow the same trend.

And it's not a coincidence the worst contracts in the NHL are attached to those who were overpaid for what they did, not what they're projected to do. Look up bad nhl contracts and every single player will be in their 30s
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 26, 2019 at 6:41 p.m.
Thread: Spin off pt 2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bf3351</b></div><div>Dubas loves giving players the contracts they want not the ones they should have. That's a pretty nieve way of thinking because do you really think players in their late 20's will settle for 2-3 year contracts? Why should they have to move their family that much? In Barries case he is 28 I believe which means he has 4-5 years left in his prime. One more year than that won't hurt. Muzzin is a physical beast who's great defensively and shutting down top players. He is also a late bloomer. He's got 3-4 more really good-solid years in him. 5 years for Muzz at 5M is manageable especially on a team that has always been bad defensively. At least this decade any way.
These are things every GM should evaluate before giving a player term. It's a case by case type of thing. Not every player is worth a 5-7 year deal.</div></div>

Which contracts are you talking about? Tavares signed for less than market value. Nylander wanted 8.5. Kapanen/Johnsson/Kerfoot signed between 3.2-3.5. I'll give you Matthews, but he was a prime offer sheet candidate and Toronto would have had to match given his star status. Maybe they saved money, who knows.

And I think you're overestimating the duration of a player's prime. I'd say prime years are between 23-27, with a small decline in performance until 30, then some players fall off of cliffs. Look at the recent trend in baseball's free agency. Allstars coming off of career years but are hovering around 30 aren't getting the contracts they're looking for because GMs are learning you shouldn't pay a player for what they've done in their 20s but can't get done entering their 30s
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 20, 2019 at 1:22 p.m.
Thread: Team Canada
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>csick</b></div><div>Stone is an elite passer and would feed McDavid for easy breakaways and could gift him goals. Chbaot, Morrissey, Nurse are all better options than Muzzin, maybe even Letang or Weber</div></div>

I'd personally prefer two goal scorers next to McDavid as he creates so many chances on his own, ideally quick and agile. I wouldn't describe Benn as quick and agile but he's big and creates space for those who are.

And yes, you got me with Weber. Forgot about him. I thought about Chabot but at the end of the day I don't want too much of the same thing.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>owenstone6</b></div><div>Giroux or Stamkos aren't better than Benn?</div></div>

See above for why I would prefer Benn. All speculation, of course. You can't go wrong with any of these players, especially next to McDavid