rebecca

Member Since
Apr 8, 2017
Favourite Team
Toronto Maple Leafs
2nd Favourite Team
Edmonton Oilers
Birthday
Nov 1, 1987
Location
Toronto
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4
Biography
Tomboys rule.
Forum: NHL SigningsNov 1 at 1:31
Thread: Nashville Predators signed Austin Watson (3 Years / $1,500,000 AAV)
It is surprising that a team would double down on someone with AW’s recent history. Does the cost off the ice - for the organization’s relationship with the community and women in particular - outweigh the gains *on* the ice? Difficult to quantify and ultimately impossible to know without knowing more details about the work Watson’s done and will continue to do to correct his behaviour and make reparations, to involved parties as well as to the organizations that fight VAW. I imagine that a significant chunk of this salary will go towards those organizations (publicly or not) and that the Preds are confident they’re making the right decision.

That all said, there is little to not like about this contract from a strictly hockey standpoint. They’ve shown acumen in locking up core complimentary players long-term (longer than most), see Sissons, Colton for another example. Watson was 10th in average all-situations ice-time, 4th in PK ice-time, amongst Predators F’s in 18/19; so far in 19/20 his numbers are not far off (10th and 6th respectively). I don’t foresee Watson not being one of the Preds top-12 (maybe even top-9 or top-10) forwards at any point in the next 4 years and, as such, this deal is solid for any player who can provide depth scoring and PK support like Watson has consistently shown he is able.
Forum: NHL TradesOct 27 at 11:06
Thread: (FLA/OTT) - Wilkie for Rodewald
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Claesson4Norris</b></div><div>Jack Rodewald is a really good AHL depth piece. Wilkie was a 6th round pick half a decade ago. At this point you're happy if he becomes Jack Rodewald.</div></div>

Well put. It’s the most likely outcome that Wilkie never gets signed and toils away with an ECHL (or lower level) team or tries his luck in a B-league in Europe. In either case he’s just a player on paper for the Sens.

Rodewald, who I was high on when he was in the Leafs organization originally (but was buried because of too much depth up front for Toronto at the AHL level circa 2015), once again finds himself squeezed out by a super-deep AHL club who’s NHL affiliate is in the midst of a rebuild.

He’s produced well at the AHL level since coming over from Toronto. Over the past 3 seasons with the B-Sens he’s scored at a 26-goal rate prorated over an entire 76-game season. Is he going to be an impact piece at the NHL level? Not a chance. But will he be able to step in and play 10m per night in a 4th line role? Absolutely!

Look no further than Gerry Mayhew in Minnesota who’s over 2 years older than Rodewald, who also cut his teeth in the AHL for years before making his NHL debut earlier this month. It’s one of the best feel-good stories of this young NHL season but it goes to show that even players 25 and older can still grow and develop and become (a little bit) more than what they are.
Forum: NHL SigningsOct 9 at 5:26
Thread: San Jose Sharks signed Patrick Marleau (1 Year / $700,000 AAV)
I’m really happy that Patty is back in the NHL. He has a remarkable consecutive games streak that lasted throughout his entire 30’s! NHL officials have confirmed that his game streak is still intact - he didn’t have a contract so there’s no games to have missed! Who can say they never missed a day of work thru their entire 30’s?! I swear it’s those ice baths he takes in between every period (this is true).

Unless he has a crazy turn-back-the-clock season (a la Jagr) this will certainly be his last. So he won’t set the record for Ironman streaks but if he plays the last 75 games of the season, he’ll end up at 863 consecutive games played (4th or 5th all-time depending on if Keith Yandle, a dozen games in front of Marleau, continues his streak through 2019/20). The record, remember is 964 (Doug Jarvis) which would require another season plus 20 games in the next season to break. Crazier things have happened but this is likely Marleau’s swan song.

<a href="https://records.nhl.com/records/skater-records/seasons-and-games/most-consecutive-games-played" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://records.nhl.com/records/skater-records/seasons-and-games/most-consecutive-games-played</a>
Forum: NHL SigningsOct 7 at 2:30
Thread: New Jersey Devils signed Joe Morrow (1 Year / $700,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Brian2016</b></div><div>I'm a little surprised Boyle is still out there too. He's probably had a couple offers, but he probably wants a specific situation. Solid C/W who can play decently in all situations.</div></div>

Right?! There was talk about there being significant interest but cap constraints limiting the possibilities. I reckon he won’t settle for under $1.5M and likely would insist on a 2y deal with a NTC for the first year at a minimum as he’s moved around a lot while dealing with a lot of life stuff. Given it’s the last contract he’ll sign he probably wants to do it right. But I’m sure he’ll get picked up once team’a figure out what they’ve got (and don’t have).

Same for Vanek, and Marleau who can provide more pop than players 15 years their junior.

Not certain about Pominville - his career may be over if BUF or MIN won’t offer him a 1y deal. Same thing for anyone else below him on the list tho Brouwer could be useful for 1 more year (he’s a double digit goal scorer and that’s worth something) and Paajarvi - were he to accept a 2-way deal and time to work his way up from the AHL I’m sure an NHL club could find him a useful depth piece.
Forum: NHL SigningsOct 6 at 5:14
Thread: New Jersey Devils signed Joe Morrow (1 Year / $700,000 AAV)
The D-Men are all tapped out. This was the best remaining option and the last guy who could arguably be a Top-6 guy in the NHL. Phaneuf, MacDonald, Methot, McQuaid? They are all too slow for today’s game, typified by more mobile blue liners. It’s possible the 2 younger UFA’s - Luca Sbisa and Patrick Wiercioch (both 29) - find a place with an organization on a 2-way deal but other than that I don’t see anyone other UFAs who are going to play in the NHL - at least in terms of D-Men.

Forwards however? That’s a whole other story. I’m waiting for the news to drop on some of these guys - all of whom could play a valuable bottom-6 and secondary special teams role and provide experience and leadership. The question in many cases will be if these guys, used to making 7 figures, will accept a minimum salary deal in order to join a contender (like how Jason Spezza did in Toronto), as so many teams have little cap space.

<strong>Top 10 Remaining UFA Forwards</strong>
1. Brian Boyle, 35
2. Thomas Vanek, 35
3. Patrick Marleau, 40
4. Jason Pominville, 37
5. Magnus Paajarvi, 28
6. Troy Brouwer, 34
7. Linus Videll, 34 (KHL)
8. Drew Stafford, 34
9. Jamie McGinn, 31
10. Devante Smith-Pelly, 27

Who’s gonna get signed next?
Forum: NHL SigningsSep 17 at 12:46
Thread: Carolina Hurricanes signed Fredrik Claesson (1 Year / $700,000 AAV)
One of the under-the-radar top UFAs left (I had him at #12) and arguably the best UFA D-Man (under 30) still available. Has shown better in his 3+ seasons than Ben Hutton or Joe Morrow. His career Corsi is a respectable 48.9% and his relative Corsi last season (with the Rags) was +3.0. He’s played on pretty awful teams but put up decent peripherals so it’ll be interesting to see him in a depth role in Carolina.

He has a surprising amount of pro experience (517 games split between the NHL (150), SHL (82) and AHL (285)). As such, if he doesn’t make the Canes roster he’ll will take up one of the 6 spots for veteran skaters (basically those with &gt;260 pro GP) available in Charlotte. Could be an alternate captain down there if they go that route.

Other than not being signed sooner, the only surprising thing is that he’s signed by the team that needs the least help with respect to defensive depth. I can’t imagine there not being at least ONE trade of Canes D-Men to flesh out their forward lines and forward prospect depth (which is shallower relative to their blue line). All the talk about Faulk may finally lead to something with this and the Gardiner signing. Could a lefty, maybe Jake Bean (who could bring back a valuable piece) also be on his way out? We shall see.
Forum: NHL SigningsSep 13 at 11:52
Thread: Philadelphia Flyers signed Ivan Provorov (6 Years / $6,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DirtyDangles</b></div><div>So Provy has one down year and all of a sudden he doesn't have elite potential? Can you elaborate as to how that is the case?</div></div>

That’s the take by Corey Pronman, who travels the world and ranks prospects and young players. Over the past few years his impression of Provorov has gone down a notch. He may not be elite (Top-10 D in the NHL) but he can still be a very serviceable top pairing defender and, should he get there, then this is a great contract. It’s just that he has a ways to go. As per my later post, looking at his overall game, scoring, play driving, and ability to suppress scoring chances, he’s at the level of an average 2nd pairing defenseman as it stands right now.
Forum: NHL SigningsSep 12 at 11:13
Thread: Philadelphia Flyers signed Ivan Provorov (6 Years / $6,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Brian2016</b></div><div>Also gotta take into account the fact that Morrissey should see substantial exposure to WPG's elite forwards both at 5on5 and on the PP. His offensive numbers should probably be higher than Provorov's assuming Ghostesbehere retains the #1 PP role. Maybe it's just b/c I've seen Provorov a lit more on tv and in person b/c the Flyers play the Devils 4 times a year and PHI gets more national TV exposure, but I just think he's the total package of 2-way skill, physicality, and high hockey IQ. Before his regression last season I thought he was a future Norris contender...He still might be, but who knows.</div></div>

Also, Dom Luszczyszyn at The Athletic in his annual team previews/rankings grades Provorov out as a 0.9 on his Game Score whereas Morrissey is a 1.6. It’s behind a paywall, but it’s a very rigorous analysis (accounts for scoring contributions and expected goals for/against primarily as well as other things and corrected for age curves). It’s weighted with the most recent season in account, so that doesn’t help Provorov, but it shows that Morrissey is a top pair (but not elite) option whereas Provorov is a solid 2nd Pair guy (over the past 3y).
Forum: NHL SigningsSep 12 at 11:03
Thread: Philadelphia Flyers signed Ivan Provorov (6 Years / $6,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Brian2016</b></div><div>Also gotta take into account the fact that Morrissey should see substantial exposure to WPG's elite forwards both at 5on5 and on the PP. His offensive numbers should probably be higher than Provorov's assuming Ghostesbehere retains the #1 PP role. Maybe it's just b/c I've seen Provorov a lit more on tv and in person b/c the Flyers play the Devils 4 times a year and PHI gets more national TV exposure, but I just think he's the total package of 2-way skill, physicality, and high hockey IQ. Before his regression last season I thought he was a future Norris contender...He still might be, but who knows.</div></div>

And perhaps I’m bias being in Toronto and watching the Jets (tho not as often as I like as late game is usually the Canucks 🙄 on CBC) on Saturday nights (Hockey Night in Canada).

There is merit in choosing the Provorov deal over the Morrissey deal, don’t get me wrong. Both are being paid at what will be “bargains” for a top pair D-Man in a few years time. And they could be more even. So there is value to be had.

Provorov could still be a Top-30 defender one day in the NHL but he’s got a ways to go. Morrissey is already there, IMHO, as a top pair LD and in the “Top-30” conversation.

Morrissey actually doesn’t see a tonne of PP time - significantly less than Provorov in fact. Last season Morrissey had 103m and in 17/18 just 26m. Provorov has averaged almost 140m per season on the PP thru his first 3 seasons. Just for comparison.

And thank you. 🤓🤷🏼‍♀️
Forum: NHL SigningsSep 12 at 10:36
Thread: Philadelphia Flyers signed Ivan Provorov (6 Years / $6,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Brian2016</b></div><div>Provorov's deal seems to have higher upside than Morrissey's, but w/ a little more risk. I think I'd take Provorov straight up over Morrissey any day though. He's also 2 years younger.</div></div>

Technically speaking, when comparing these contracts, Morrissey is actually 3y older (as this contract doesn’t kick in until 2020/21). For $500,000 *more* the Flyers are getting 2 *fewer* years although you could argue that the last 2 years of Morrissey’s contract could be the least valuable as he could start declining by then (age 31/32).

I’d agree in general with your assessment - that the Morrissey contract is safer but has less potential maximum upside. That said I think the likelihood of there being a net positive from the contract is much greater with Morrissey. He’s already worth that much - arguably more - so that makes its value more solid.

Provorov is unequivocally not worth that much now and thus has to continue to improve to even have the contract break even. That said, he has a high pedigree and is still considered on track to be a decent - but no longer elite - top pairing defender. His ceiling is still a titch above Morrissey’s but Morrissey is much closer to his ceiling than Provorov (thus more likely to reach it). If Provorov meets these lofty expectations then it’s a win. *If*.

If I had to put numbers on it, would look something like this:

Provorov contract massive bargain - 12%
Morrissey contract massive bargain - 4%

Provorov contract significant bargain - 22%
Morrissey contract significant bargain - 52%

Provorov contract fair value - 28%
Morrissey contract fair value - 32%

Provorov contract significant anchor - 28%
Morrissey contract significant anchor - 10%

Provorov contract massive anchor - 10%
Morrissey contract massive anchor - 2%

Likelihood of contract being an anchor?
Morrissey 12%
Provorov 38% (&gt; 3x)

I think that’s why Provorov’s contract has about 3x the “No’s” as Morrissey. That said the potential for Provorov’s contract to be a massive bargain is greater (also by 3x). However the likelihood of such a good outcome happening occurs only 8% of the time vs 25% of the time for either contract being a bust. So pick which is more important? The Provorov deal is just too risky for my tastes in a cap world.
Forum: NHL SigningsSep 12 at 9:53
Forum: NHL SigningsSep 11 at 11:22
Thread: Winnipeg Jets signed Eric Comrie (2 Years / $700,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F3ruS</b></div><div>What do you think about adavanced stats 5v5:
Offense:
<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocOffWi/1819/WPG/lainepa98/" alt="lainepa98">

With Laine the team is: -13% ( i think he had only 1 good month last year(november), then 9 goals in the 57 games from December to April.)
Without Laine the team is: -2%

Difference: -11% offense = really bad compared to league average and other teammates

Explanation on offense:
+ number = good
- number = bad

Defense:
<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWi/1819/WPG/lainepa98/" alt="lainepa98">

With Laine the team is: +14% :cry :cry :cry
Without Laine the team is: -1%

Difference: +15% defense = crazy super bad compared to league average and other teammates

Explanation on defense:
+ number = bad
- number = good

Another type of adv stat(under 50 it's bad):
CF% = 46.2

The eyetest also doesn't lie, together with the -24 on the plus-minus chart, and the lack of defensive effort on his side. These stats are close to Ristolainen level of stats...
I just think he would fit for the East a lot much better(maybe with some other finnish teammates as well), then on the west, where things are much more physical and defensive oriented.
Yes, the 40-40-30 goals 3 seasons are really amazing, but are goals enough in today's NHL? I mean i heard he was semi-injured in the last season, and maybe that's why he couldn't bring his game to the next level. So i would not be surprised on a bridge deal, but last time i heard:
:jets want long term(6+years)-small money and Laine doesn't want long-term contract nor small money = He wants short term + big money together, which is impossible imo in the current cap situation for Winnipeg to offer...
So Winnipeg willing to risk a short-term-big money contract?
8 million $ @ 3 years and banking on the fact that next 3 years he will at least once put up some positive signs( = big improvements, which will be minus numbers on the pictures i linked)) on the defensive side on the ice.
We know he will get his goals in next 3 years, thats not the problem. But in playoffs, scoring goals value is decreasing(less powerplays, more video analysis on his shot by goalies, better defense on other teams+ goalies etc...)
I think his trade value is still insanely high and i can see some teams, which will overpay to get him and risk the long contract.
That would be super benefecial for winnipeg = more chance to win the stanley cup in the long run...

<b>Also will Laine ever agree on a 6 million $ @ 3 years contract, because i highly doubt he will. 5.5 mill $? No way</b>, even though i think that would be a fair price based on his performance.
Stralman got 5.5 mill $ contract @ 3 years.
Is Laine really saying to himself: "I worth as much as Stralman, an aging old defender, who most of the time injured...
...So i just take this 5.5 mill $ contract and prove it in next 3 years that i worth 10mill - 11 mill+ $."
I just don't see this happening. I know Stralman got overpaid, but why Laine shouldn't think he should get overpaid as well? He is young, scoring a lot of goals etc...

I think his agent looking at the Skinner contract to be honest... Not in the 5.5 mill - 6 mill $ range at all. You get what i'm saying?
Skinner got with his 2nd contract = 5.7 million $ @ 6 years, almost 10% of the 2012 caphit!
That's a lot closer to 8 million $, and currently it looks like trends also shifted because players want to get paid even at their 2nd contract! Their stats looked extremely smilair in points per game 2 years for skinner and 3 years for laine 0.8 ppg... So how is he accepting around 6 million $.... no way...
Probably the biggest difference on remaining RFA's demand and offer: Laine and Winnipeg.

Do you remember what Aho did? :hurricanes lowballed him for lots of months with like a long-term 6 million $ offer and they never increased it... he decided to sign the offersheet the first minute possible... for only 8.5 mill $...
Why? Becasue he saw if they're offering 6 million $ to him, he will never even get 8 million $, so 8.5 mill $ is a dream scenario for him(compared to 6), and he also knew with his agent 100% that Carolina will match it in 10 minutes...
He also knew Carolina would never even think about offering him 10 million $, so 8.5 million $ actually a good deal for him...

Maybe 6.5 million $ @ 1 year, hmm , but then next year his price could be even more insane, if he puts up his best season ever... So that's not good for Winnipeg again...

If i'm Winnipeg GM, im also going for 6+ years &amp; small money route or another option is trade. With a small bridge deal, only Laine will win, and the Jets might not even make the playoff next year...

6.5 - 7 million $ @ 2 years would make a lot of sense. But then again, that's a win for Laine... But maybe last minute winnipeg GM says "YES" to that type of deal... maybe... or holdout until december 1.(it worked out for Nylander hahaaa :tearsofjoy)
So yeah i can see right now 7 million $ contract @ 1-3 years or trade... so trade seems still a viable option... but maybe thats just me... and winnipeg will pay him the big bucks at the end...

For fun, EW Contract Projections: 2019 - Laine:
7.1 million $ @ 7 years with a 27% chance... hahahaa ^^
7.5 million $ @ 6 years with a 24% chance : better but still no way Laine says yes to this...
5 million $ @ 2 years with a 10% chance : uhummm :tearsofjoy


Connor: Based on Ehlers, and he is better than Ehlers, can't see him signing for less than 7.5-8 mill+ $ if its @ 6 years = long term...

Laine: Based on all above, my prediction for Laine, if not traded: 7.66 million $ @ 3 years

Imo Laine is more interesting right now, than the Marner "case" ;)</div></div>

Um, so the questions in there? Yes, Laine has significant deficiencies in his 5v5 play and also his consistency is a major issue. Some streakyness is okay - but averaging under 3 goals per month (as he did thru the last half of the season) isn’t gonna cut it. I don’t think he’s in the strongest position with a lot of the advanced data out there and the lack of an offer sheet to date likely shows his camp that he won’t be able to get what he wants. I agree that a 5.5 to 7.0M contract for 2-3y seems low, but he hasn’t proven himself as a full NHL player, aside from being able to score tonnes of goals in bunches. Thus far the negatives outweigh the positives and I can’t imagine Chevelldayoff or any other GM losing that discussion. In consideration of all that, a 2y show me deal for $6M would be more than fair and I’d be shocked if it goes above that in the 2y range, or $7M AAV in the 3y range. He can’t even threaten to leave as there’s no way he can make that much in Liiga or the KHL either so at some point soon - likely by the start of camp - they’ll cave and accept their offer.
Forum: NHL SigningsSep 9 at 1:30
Thread: Winnipeg Jets signed Eric Comrie (2 Years / $700,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F3ruS</b></div><div>:lightning is keeping McElhinney, our GM said it multiple times, he is our backup goalie for next season.
Best goalie duo in NHL with Vasi. Together with a strong D core should work well.
I'm hoping for under 2.25 GAA at end of the year. To prepare for playoffs this time.
We know that scoring 4-5 goals in the playoffs is not gonna happen... unlike in regular season...

So bye-bye Domingue.. i liked him... but that's life...
He played good for us last year, but no doubt we improved at Goalie position with McElhinney :cool

Am i the only one who thinks, that Winnipeg will trade Laine for a good package?:huh

It will be interesting what kind of contract he will get, if he stays in Winnipeg... i suspect it's not gonna be a good one... (not good for Laine) :grimace</div></div>

For sure, I have heard the same things - but it’s not over til it’s over. McElhinney isn’t a spring chicken and he could have aged 5y in one summer and they change their minds.

But that’s aside the point. The central thrust is that TB, and several other teams (including WPG with Comrie), will have at least solid replacement level to halfway decent back-ups as their 3rd goalies and who will go thru waivers. Some will be picked up to be sure.
Rather than lose them for nothing, I anticipate teams like TBL and maybe even WPG getting deals in place before that happens.

WRT to your Laine hypothesis - I highly doubt a trade is going to happen this summer. Closer to the end of his next contract (like with Trouba)? Getting warmer. I reckon, in fact I’m almost certain, that Laine will be locked up on a 2y or 3y bridge deal with an AAV in the 5.5M to 7.0M range (higher for the extra year). After last season there’s a lot of questions and likely some variance between how much money he wants and how much he will be able to get. Conner could also go the bridge route but my money is on him signing for 6y.