rebecca

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Apr 8, 2017
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Nov 1, 1987
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Toronto
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Tomboys rule.
Forum: NHL SigningsWed at 2:03 pm
Thread: Ottawa Senators signed Colin White (6 Years / $4,750,000 AAV)
So he’s making high 3rd line or low 2nd line money. Will he be fulfilling that role (and doing it well) on the Senators for the duration of the contract? Almost certainly. Y1 and maybe Y2 will be a bit of an overpay but the value for Y3-Y6 far outweigh that. Moreover it’s not like the Sens will be close to the cap in Y1 or Y2 so I don’t think there’s really any downside.

From the perspective of the organization, it locks up a forward who can be marketed as part of a bright young core that will (one day) return this bereft sad sack of a franchise back to respectability. I’m truly bewildered that a bridge deal wasn’t insisted on by the player and his agent as there’s a 90% chance he’d be making more money in the long-term if he went that route. That said there’s nothing wrong with saying yes to a guaranteed $28.5M. And he’ll still be young enough to cash in big when he hits UFA when this contract is over.
Forum: NHL SigningsJul 23 at 1:25
Thread: Nashville Predators signed Colton Sissons (7 Years / $2,857,143 AAV)
Well, well, well. This contract’s certainly gonna spark some debate. It’s gonna be very polarizing, methinks. You’ll either love this or hate this contract.

What it comes down to is about where you land on a spectrum of stability vs flexibility. Looking back, NSH has often been more likely to offer *longer-term* contracts to players it considers to be core pieces (Weber, Forsberg, RJ, Jarnkrok, Turris, etc...). Just with those examples you can see the pros and cons of such a strategy, whereby you engender roster stability and player (and ?fan) loyalty alongside a lower cap hit. Conversely you are committed to a significantly longer term for the player. 6y or 7y instead of 2 or 3y.

Personally I LOVE this deal. In my spreadsheet, I had Sissons at $2.6M for 3y most likely. The Predators got that AAV but have secured it over 7y! As the cap goes up, this contract will look even better.

The downside of course is his play decreases faster than one would expect as he enters his 30’s in years 5/6/7. Generally speaking however, bottom-6 players (which is all that Sissons is, will be, and all they need him to be - esp on this deal) tend to see a drop off around age 32, which is the final year of this deal. Would 6y have been better? Yes. I’d have liked it a good deal more. But I don’t think y7 will be crippling. Worst case they bury his contract in the AHL and by that time it’s likely the majority of the cap hit will be buryable so the cap implications are minimal.
Forum: NHL SigningsJul 22 at 8:20
Thread: Winnipeg Jets signed Neal Pionk (2 Years / $3,000,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Brian2016</b></div><div>Good analysis, but I'm not convinced WPG will be a contending team next season. I could see them as low as 6th in the Central and 10th in the West. They lost a ton this summer and haven't added anyone of consequence besides Pionk. Most of the teams around them in the standings last season have improved substantially. CHI, COL, ARI, DAL, and NSH have all made big changes and big steps forward, at least on paper. The big underlying problem seems to be that nobody really wants to play in WPG. It's supposedly very cold there and very isolated.</div></div>

I don’t disagree fundamentally. But I’d expect them to at least be contesting for a playoff until the last handful of games - and certainly longer than the Rangers did the past 2 seasons (which was, basically, never). They still have 2 excellent scoring lines with an avg bottom-6 and perhaps one of the best 5 goalie tandems in the NHL, particularly if Hellebucyk bounces back. There is a big hole at LD but that’s nothing new really as it’s been there for the past 4y. For Winnipeg, finishing anywhere from 6th to 11th is reasonable but I think it’ll be close (for the playoffs).
Forum: NHL SigningsJul 22 at 12:25
Thread: Winnipeg Jets signed Neal Pionk (2 Years / $3,000,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GeraltofRivia</b></div><div>2.8 million a year would have been more accurate but I’m just nitpicking</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Brian2016</b></div><div> I think $3M AAV is a bit too high for a 3rd pair D on a bridge deal, but it's not terrible. $2.25 would've been perfect, in my opinion.</div></div>

Right between these guys, I had Pionk coming in for 2y at 2.6M. $3.0M would be appropriate for a 3y bridge, but for a 2y this is a moderate, but not egregious, overpayment. Ultimately for any Top-4 D you’re going to be paying them at least $2.5M even if there’s a limited body of work to judge it on. Also, I imagine that management has perhaps learned a thing or two from the Trouba situation and decided to acquiesce to the player’s demands this time around with the hopes of being more likely to sign a long-term deal in 2y time. Assuming of course he can adjust to a 2nd pairing role on a competitive team in Winnipeg.

He has been playing Top-4 minutes since arriving in the NHL, and has put up decent offensive numbers as well (tho his underlying stats leave a bit to be desired). There’s some raw talent there to harness, but it may turn out that he’s a price 3rd Pair guy on a contending team, which would be a disappointment given that he was a 1:1 trade for Trouba, but there wasn’t much else that Chevy and co could really do. Both with the trade (given the Jets cap situation) and with this contract (given the base salary expectations for a Top-4 D-Man.
Forum: NHL SigningsJul 22 at 12:10
Thread: St. Louis Blues signed Oskar Sundqvist (4 Years / $2,750,000 AAV)
A 4y term is a big investment in someone who has less than 2 season-equivalencies of games under his belt.

Also the discrepancy between the first 70 games (2-7-9) and this past season’s 74 games (14-17-31) does make one wonder if this past season’s contributions are repeatable.

The organization obviously feels that it is repeatable and that, by signing him long-term now, not only do they lock him up as part of the Cup-winning core, but they feel they are going to save money over time.

So does he have sustainable 3rd line upside who will routinely score 12-16 goals with 30-40 points? Or is he a Quad-A tweeter who got lucky last year? If it’s the former than this contract is great. If it’s the latter then, well, he’s the next Beleskey.

I wouldn’t have offered this deal - there just isn’t enough data to warrant the risk in a tight cap offseason. But it’s a deal that can have definite upside nonetheless.
Forum: NHL SigningsJul 20 at 1:28
Thread: Carolina Hurricanes signed Brock McGinn (2 Years / $2,100,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rebecca</b></div><div>As it stands now, after the McGinn signing, they are at a titch over $3M in cap space.</div></div>

In my spreadsheet, I’ve sent Clark Bishop to the AHL to free up roster and cap space for Williams. Of course in event of offseason or preseason injury Bishop could be right back up with the Canes, but as it stands right now I think he’s the 14th F.

As I mentioned above they may want to run with 13x F’s rather than 14 to save a titch of cap space. If everyone is healthy it’s likely a toss between Gibbons, Foegele, and Necas (as he’d not require waivers and would get 1st line mins in Charlotte). They’re all solid NHL forwards though, which is a good problem for CAR to have. Gibbons or Foegele could be snapped up on waivers. But the cap space would help.

So odd seeing Carolina as a Cap Team now. It’s great! In fact it looks like 2/3 of NHL teams will be at/within 5M of the cap this season when all is said and done. Not enough money to go around.
Forum: NHL SigningsJul 20 at 1:18
Thread: Carolina Hurricanes signed Brock McGinn (2 Years / $2,100,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pinslack</b></div><div>Fair AAV and term. Good signing for a team close to the cap. But how will CAR sign Williams? Will it be a salary based on bonuses? probably... or is he gone?</div></div>

As it stands now, after the McGinn signing, they are at a titch over $3M in cap space. I think they can likely sign Williams at 1y for $3M - perhaps with a few bonuses bringing it up to $4/4.5M. Of course they wouldn’t want to be so close to the Cap to leave some space in the event Williams or anyone else with performance bonuses (I.e. ELC’s) reaches them and puts them into overage territory.

I think they’ll have no trouble being cap compliant on Day 1 of the season. Moving forward they may look to shed a bit of salary, either via trade (say moving Faulk for a younger, cheaper forward saving $0.5-2M) or via cleaving the roster to 22 instead of 23 for much of the season to allow them to have some space accrued over the course of the year. This would give them greater flexibility in the event of injuries and trades.
Forum: NHL SigningsJul 16 at 12:18
Thread: Edmonton Oilers signed Josh Archibald (1 Year / $1,000,000 AAV)
Edmonton is finding what they can with the slim pickings off the UFA winger buffet but all the tasty stuff is long gone. He will eat some minutes and PK but he won’t solve their goal scoring minutes. 4th line player if there ever was one.

In contrast, someone like Oscar Lindberg (whose Corsi is 5% higher than Archibald over their careers) would help drive the play more. Even a veteran like Pominville or Vanek could be of more use for 1 final season.

Maybe the best fit would be the best winger not named “Williams” on the market, and that would be Patrick Maroon. He fared well in his last visit and you would think he would jump at the chance to return. Perhaps, now that it’s almost 3 aka into FA, Holland will circle back to Maroon. His term and/or ask is obviously too high, but if a compromise can be reached (say 2y at $2.5M) I would jump on that if I were the Oilers.