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rebecca
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Apr. 8, 2017
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Forum:
NHL Signings
Sep. 12, 2019 at 10:36 p.m.
Thread:
Philadelphia Flyers signed Ivan Provorov (6 Years / $6,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Brian2016</b></div><div>Provorov's deal seems to have higher upside than Morrissey's, but w/ a little more risk. I think I'd take Provorov straight up over Morrissey any day though. He's also 2 years younger.</div></div>
Technically speaking, when comparing these contracts, Morrissey is actually 3y older (as this contract doesn’t kick in until 2020/21). For $500,000 *more* the Flyers are getting 2 *fewer* years although you could argue that the last 2 years of Morrissey’s contract could be the least valuable as he could start declining by then (age 31/32).
I’d agree in general with your assessment - that the Morrissey contract is safer but has less potential maximum upside. That said I think the likelihood of there being a net positive from the contract is much greater with Morrissey. He’s already worth that much - arguably more - so that makes its value more solid.
Provorov is unequivocally not worth that much now and thus has to continue to improve to even have the contract break even. That said, he has a high pedigree and is still considered on track to be a decent - but no longer elite - top pairing defender. His ceiling is still a titch above Morrissey’s but Morrissey is much closer to his ceiling than Provorov (thus more likely to reach it). If Provorov meets these lofty expectations then it’s a win. *If*.
If I had to put numbers on it, would look something like this:
Provorov contract massive bargain - 12%
Morrissey contract massive bargain - 4%
Provorov contract significant bargain - 22%
Morrissey contract significant bargain - 52%
Provorov contract fair value - 28%
Morrissey contract fair value - 32%
Provorov contract significant anchor - 28%
Morrissey contract significant anchor - 10%
Provorov contract massive anchor - 10%
Morrissey contract massive anchor - 2%
Likelihood of contract being an anchor?
Morrissey 12%
Provorov 38% (> 3x)
I think that’s why Provorov’s contract has about 3x the “No’s” as Morrissey. That said the potential for Provorov’s contract to be a massive bargain is greater (also by 3x). However the likelihood of such a good outcome happening occurs only 8% of the time vs 25% of the time for either contract being a bust. So pick which is more important? The Provorov deal is just too risky for my tastes in a cap world.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Sep. 12, 2019 at 9:53 p.m.
Thread:
Philadelphia Flyers signed Ivan Provorov (6 Years / $6,750,000 AAV)
A bit of an overpay. Not that it couldn’t be a contract with value one day - but if Proverov doesn’t continue to improve (and markedly so compared to last season) - then it could be an anchor for an above-average 2nd pairing or below-average 1st pairing D-Man.
Regarding McAvoy. Because he is technically not a RFA (due to insufficient NHL time), his leverage is much less. While a better player, I don’t see him getting quite this much money from Boston - partly because of his situation and partly due to Boston’s cap crunch. If he wants 6y it won’t be above $6.5M - because of this I think a 2y deal (for about $4-4.5M) is most likely with a similar length for fellow blueliner Carlo.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Sep. 11, 2019 at 11:22 p.m.
Thread:
Winnipeg Jets signed Eric Comrie (2 Years / $700,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F3ruS</b></div><div>What do you think about adavanced stats 5v5:
Offense:
<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocOffWi/1819/WPG/lainepa98/" alt="lainepa98">
With Laine the team is: -13% ( i think he had only 1 good month last year(november), then 9 goals in the 57 games from December to April.)
Without Laine the team is: -2%
Difference: -11% offense = really bad compared to league average and other teammates
Explanation on offense:
+ number = good
- number = bad
Defense:
<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWi/1819/WPG/lainepa98/" alt="lainepa98">
With Laine the team is: +14% :cry :cry :cry
Without Laine the team is: -1%
Difference: +15% defense = crazy super bad compared to league average and other teammates
Explanation on defense:
+ number = bad
- number = good
Another type of adv stat(under 50 it's bad):
CF% = 46.2
The eyetest also doesn't lie, together with the -24 on the plus-minus chart, and the lack of defensive effort on his side. These stats are close to Ristolainen level of stats...
I just think he would fit for the East a lot much better(maybe with some other finnish teammates as well), then on the west, where things are much more physical and defensive oriented.
Yes, the 40-40-30 goals 3 seasons are really amazing, but are goals enough in today's NHL? I mean i heard he was semi-injured in the last season, and maybe that's why he couldn't bring his game to the next level. So i would not be surprised on a bridge deal, but last time i heard:
:jets want long term(6+years)-small money and Laine doesn't want long-term contract nor small money = He wants short term + big money together, which is impossible imo in the current cap situation for Winnipeg to offer...
So Winnipeg willing to risk a short-term-big money contract?
8 million $ @ 3 years and banking on the fact that next 3 years he will at least once put up some positive signs( = big improvements, which will be minus numbers on the pictures i linked)) on the defensive side on the ice.
We know he will get his goals in next 3 years, thats not the problem. But in playoffs, scoring goals value is decreasing(less powerplays, more video analysis on his shot by goalies, better defense on other teams+ goalies etc...)
I think his trade value is still insanely high and i can see some teams, which will overpay to get him and risk the long contract.
That would be super benefecial for winnipeg = more chance to win the stanley cup in the long run...
<b>Also will Laine ever agree on a 6 million $ @ 3 years contract, because i highly doubt he will. 5.5 mill $? No way</b>, even though i think that would be a fair price based on his performance.
Stralman got 5.5 mill $ contract @ 3 years.
Is Laine really saying to himself: "I worth as much as Stralman, an aging old defender, who most of the time injured...
...So i just take this 5.5 mill $ contract and prove it in next 3 years that i worth 10mill - 11 mill+ $."
I just don't see this happening. I know Stralman got overpaid, but why Laine shouldn't think he should get overpaid as well? He is young, scoring a lot of goals etc...
I think his agent looking at the Skinner contract to be honest... Not in the 5.5 mill - 6 mill $ range at all. You get what i'm saying?
Skinner got with his 2nd contract = 5.7 million $ @ 6 years, almost 10% of the 2012 caphit!
That's a lot closer to 8 million $, and currently it looks like trends also shifted because players want to get paid even at their 2nd contract! Their stats looked extremely smilair in points per game 2 years for skinner and 3 years for laine 0.8 ppg... So how is he accepting around 6 million $.... no way...
Probably the biggest difference on remaining RFA's demand and offer: Laine and Winnipeg.
Do you remember what Aho did? :hurricanes lowballed him for lots of months with like a long-term 6 million $ offer and they never increased it... he decided to sign the offersheet the first minute possible... for only 8.5 mill $...
Why? Becasue he saw if they're offering 6 million $ to him, he will never even get 8 million $, so 8.5 mill $ is a dream scenario for him(compared to 6), and he also knew with his agent 100% that Carolina will match it in 10 minutes...
He also knew Carolina would never even think about offering him 10 million $, so 8.5 million $ actually a good deal for him...
Maybe 6.5 million $ @ 1 year, hmm , but then next year his price could be even more insane, if he puts up his best season ever... So that's not good for Winnipeg again...
If i'm Winnipeg GM, im also going for 6+ years & small money route or another option is trade. With a small bridge deal, only Laine will win, and the Jets might not even make the playoff next year...
6.5 - 7 million $ @ 2 years would make a lot of sense. But then again, that's a win for Laine... But maybe last minute winnipeg GM says "YES" to that type of deal... maybe... or holdout until december 1.(it worked out for Nylander hahaaa :tearsofjoy)
So yeah i can see right now 7 million $ contract @ 1-3 years or trade... so trade seems still a viable option... but maybe thats just me... and winnipeg will pay him the big bucks at the end...
For fun, EW Contract Projections: 2019 - Laine:
7.1 million $ @ 7 years with a 27% chance... hahahaa ^^
7.5 million $ @ 6 years with a 24% chance : better but still no way Laine says yes to this...
5 million $ @ 2 years with a 10% chance : uhummm :tearsofjoy
Connor: Based on Ehlers, and he is better than Ehlers, can't see him signing for less than 7.5-8 mill+ $ if its @ 6 years = long term...
Laine: Based on all above, my prediction for Laine, if not traded: 7.66 million $ @ 3 years
Imo Laine is more interesting right now, than the Marner "case" ;)</div></div>
Um, so the questions in there? Yes, Laine has significant deficiencies in his 5v5 play and also his consistency is a major issue. Some streakyness is okay - but averaging under 3 goals per month (as he did thru the last half of the season) isn’t gonna cut it. I don’t think he’s in the strongest position with a lot of the advanced data out there and the lack of an offer sheet to date likely shows his camp that he won’t be able to get what he wants. I agree that a 5.5 to 7.0M contract for 2-3y seems low, but he hasn’t proven himself as a full NHL player, aside from being able to score tonnes of goals in bunches. Thus far the negatives outweigh the positives and I can’t imagine Chevelldayoff or any other GM losing that discussion. In consideration of all that, a 2y show me deal for $6M would be more than fair and I’d be shocked if it goes above that in the 2y range, or $7M AAV in the 3y range. He can’t even threaten to leave as there’s no way he can make that much in Liiga or the KHL either so at some point soon - likely by the start of camp - they’ll cave and accept their offer.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Sep. 9, 2019 at 1:30 p.m.
Thread:
Winnipeg Jets signed Eric Comrie (2 Years / $700,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F3ruS</b></div><div>:lightning is keeping McElhinney, our GM said it multiple times, he is our backup goalie for next season.
Best goalie duo in NHL with Vasi. Together with a strong D core should work well.
I'm hoping for under 2.25 GAA at end of the year. To prepare for playoffs this time.
We know that scoring 4-5 goals in the playoffs is not gonna happen... unlike in regular season...
So bye-bye Domingue.. i liked him... but that's life...
He played good for us last year, but no doubt we improved at Goalie position with McElhinney :cool
Am i the only one who thinks, that Winnipeg will trade Laine for a good package?:huh
It will be interesting what kind of contract he will get, if he stays in Winnipeg... i suspect it's not gonna be a good one... (not good for Laine) :grimace</div></div>
For sure, I have heard the same things - but it’s not over til it’s over. McElhinney isn’t a spring chicken and he could have aged 5y in one summer and they change their minds.
But that’s aside the point. The central thrust is that TB, and several other teams (including WPG with Comrie), will have at least solid replacement level to halfway decent back-ups as their 3rd goalies and who will go thru waivers. Some will be picked up to be sure.
Rather than lose them for nothing, I anticipate teams like TBL and maybe even WPG getting deals in place before that happens.
WRT to your Laine hypothesis - I highly doubt a trade is going to happen this summer. Closer to the end of his next contract (like with Trouba)? Getting warmer. I reckon, in fact I’m almost certain, that Laine will be locked up on a 2y or 3y bridge deal with an AAV in the 5.5M to 7.0M range (higher for the extra year). After last season there’s a lot of questions and likely some variance between how much money he wants and how much he will be able to get. Conner could also go the bridge route but my money is on him signing for 6y.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Sep. 9, 2019 at 1:22 p.m.
Thread:
Columbus Blue Jackets signed Zachary Werenski (3 Years / $5,000,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Yojimbo</b></div><div>Will anyone honestly vote "no" on this one?</div></div>
Theoretically one could vote “no” if they’re looking long-term, and the “cost” of not signing him up long-term could mean more money being spent in the long run.
I had that thought briefly, about voting “no”. But it lasted about 2/10 of a second before I decided the pros outweighed the cons.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Sep. 7, 2019 at 1:30 p.m.
Thread:
Winnipeg Jets signed Eric Comrie (2 Years / $700,000 AAV)
I was certain WPG would go 2y to reduce the chance of Comrie being nabbed on waivers (the commitment scares teams off who otherwise would grab a goalie). He’s one of the top-3 goalies likely to be available via waivers - and other than Chad Johnson there isn’t any goalies otherwise available (so there’s basically none available) - so the waiver wire for goalies will be busy at the end of this month.
I think going 1-way for Y1 as well as Y2 - or making the cap hit closer to $1M - would have further added a disincentive for teams to nab Comrie.
Between Comrie, Stolarz, Pickard, and McElhinney/Domingue at least 2 or 3 are gonna get picked up on waivers. There could def be a goalie shuffle soon
Forum:
NHL Signings
Sep. 4, 2019 at 6:19 p.m.
Thread:
Vancouver Canucks signed Nikolay Goldobin (1 Year / $900,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SpaghettiPasta</b></div><div>Why did it take so long</div></div>
Sure Goldy was holding out for 7-figures minimum. Given his point totals at least $1M on a 1y is reasonable.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Sep. 4, 2019 at 6:14 p.m.
Thread:
Carolina Hurricanes signed Roland McKeown (1 Year / $700,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DragonRaptorHybrid</b></div><div>pleeease, what do you guys have?
- Barrie
- Ceci
- Holl
- Liljegren
- Hollowell
- Duszak
- Lindgren
- Schmaltz
at least a few of those prospects should pan out to be good players.</div></div>
2nd on the list is “Ceci”. End comment.
In 2 years - perhaps - maybe - if everything breaks right - then there could be a solid RD from that list. But the Leafs are supposedly contending for the cup this year. So I hear at least.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Sep. 4, 2019 at 5:15 p.m.
Thread:
Carolina Hurricanes signed Roland McKeown (1 Year / $700,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>So.... our RD depth
Hamilton
Pesce
Faulk
TvR
Priskie
McKeown
Lutinemi
Wood
Hm.... I'm okay with this</div></div>
Wanna share some of that? Sincere thanks. ~Leafs fan.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Sep. 4, 2019 at 4:11 p.m.
Thread:
Arizona Coyotes signed Clayton Keller (8 Years / $7,150,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KoneDome</b></div><div>He may have been one of the few big RFAs remaining that a bridge would work for both sides, but this has to be a win for the player. Out of all the remaining RFAs that will sign for $6m AAV+ Keller probably has the most to prove.</div></div>
Keller wasn’t an outstanding RFA. This deal is signed 1y ahead of when his ELC ends. Just clarifying that
Forum:
NHL Signings
Sep. 3, 2019 at 6:38 p.m.
Thread:
Minnesota Wild signed Louis Belpedio (1 Year / $700,000 AAV)
Belpedio was an outstanding RFA the Wild had to sign, not a new signing. Aside from the whole not having a GM thing, can’t understand why this took so long. Maybe they forgot about him?
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 27, 2019 at 10:30 a.m.
Thread:
Florida Panthers signed Denis Malgin (1 Year / $750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Radovan</b></div><div>You mean the guy who gave up on both Marchessault and Smith just so he could keep Alex Petrovic?</div></div>
I shudder to think of what the Panthers forward ranks would looks like this season with those 2 still on board.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 25, 2019 at 8:06 p.m.
Thread:
Tampa Bay Lightning signed Patrick Maroon (1 Year / $900,000 AAV)
This is easily the best value UFA signing this off-season. It tops the Shattenkirk deal. Both with TB gives them a small but significant boost for their already lethal line-up.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 21, 2019 at 2:06 p.m.
Thread:
Ottawa Senators signed Colin White (6 Years / $4,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SpaghettiPasta</b></div><div>I thought everyone was waiting on Marner /s</div></div>
I’m cutting costs, Ottawa cut team email addresses - so he obviously didn’t get the memo.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 21, 2019 at 2:03 p.m.
Thread:
Ottawa Senators signed Colin White (6 Years / $4,750,000 AAV)
So he’s making high 3rd line or low 2nd line money. Will he be fulfilling that role (and doing it well) on the Senators for the duration of the contract? Almost certainly. Y1 and maybe Y2 will be a bit of an overpay but the value for Y3-Y6 far outweigh that. Moreover it’s not like the Sens will be close to the cap in Y1 or Y2 so I don’t think there’s really any downside.
From the perspective of the organization, it locks up a forward who can be marketed as part of a bright young core that will (one day) return this bereft sad sack of a franchise back to respectability. I’m truly bewildered that a bridge deal wasn’t insisted on by the player and his agent as there’s a 90% chance he’d be making more money in the long-term if he went that route. That said there’s nothing wrong with saying yes to a guaranteed $28.5M. And he’ll still be young enough to cash in big when he hits UFA when this contract is over.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 5, 2019 at 6:21 p.m.
Thread:
Buffalo Sabres signed Remi Elie (1 Year / $700,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>Just so you know, this guy is notorious for inventing insulting names for players, or making comments similar to the one to which you are reacting.</div></div>
Thx for the heads up. I figured. And while it’s probably best to not feed the troll, I can’t help myself sometimes. ?
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 3, 2019 at 1:55 p.m.
Thread:
Buffalo Sabres signed Remi Elie (1 Year / $700,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AudioCats</b></div><div>Reports are that it's two-way. I'm surprised too. He did probably get a nice negotiation on his AHL pay like you mentioned.
<a href="https://www.diebytheblade.com/2019/8/1/20750459/buffalo-sabres-re-sign-forward-remi-elie-nhl" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://www.diebytheblade.com/2019/8/1/20750459/buffalo-sabres-re-sign-forward-remi-elie-nhl</a></div></div>
Looks like you were right! Tho his AHL sal is decent (and he got an extra $100k guaranteed on top of that. Not too shabby for minor league salary. Compared to baseball (and almost every other sport), AHL salaries are decent.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 3, 2019 at 1:53 p.m.
Thread:
Buffalo Sabres signed Jake McCabe (2 Years / $2,850,000 AAV)
Honestly thought they’d limit it to 1y to keep the hit down to around $2M. As it stands now, after signing Ullmark they’ll be AT LEAST $2M over the cap and that’s after sending someone down to Rochester.
This all but confirms a trade is in the works. Likely Ristolainen if I had a gun to my head and had to guess.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 1, 2019 at 2:09 p.m.
Thread:
Buffalo Sabres signed Remi Elie (1 Year / $700,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AudioCats</b></div><div>I mean it's fine if it's a 2-way deal and he's AHL depth. </div></div>
It’s just prelim details right now, but I wouldn’t bet on it being 2-way. He was on a 1-way deal at a little over $700k last year so for him to take a cut to his NHL salary makes me think it’s likely still a 1-way deal. Were it 2-ways I think you’d see something like $800k as his NHL salary (and a bit less than half that at the AHL level) to compensate for the lower income he’d get for the time he spends in the AHL. But I could be wrong.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 1, 2019 at 2:05 p.m.
Thread:
Buffalo Sabres signed Remi Elie (1 Year / $700,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AwesomeMatthews</b></div><div>Girlish name in the NHL</div></div>
Remi is a common guy’s name as well as a girls name in the French language. It’s origin is related to “oarsmen”.
Also, attributing feminine qualities to someone in a pejorative way is soooooooo last century. Hurry up and grow up.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 1, 2019 at 1:58 p.m.
Thread:
Colorado Avalanche signed AJ Greer (1 Year / $735,000 AAV)
I wonder if there’s a condition on the contract to not hang out with Sonny Milano. ?
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 23, 2019 at 6:43 p.m.
Thread:
Vegas Golden Knights signed Deryk Engelland (1 Year / $1,500,000 AAV)
I expect he’ll be in the press box for most of the season as he’s definitely not top-6 material on a Cup Contender. But I guess he provides support and leadership...and stuff. Were it anyone else they wouldn’t have this but cause it’s Mr. Las Vegas he gets one last trip round the ice.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 23, 2019 at 1:30 p.m.
Thread:
Nashville Predators signed Colton Sissons (7 Years / $2,857,143 AAV)
$20M - +$1. ?
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 23, 2019 at 1:25 p.m.
Thread:
Nashville Predators signed Colton Sissons (7 Years / $2,857,143 AAV)
Well, well, well. This contract’s certainly gonna spark some debate. It’s gonna be very polarizing, methinks. You’ll either love this or hate this contract.
What it comes down to is about where you land on a spectrum of stability vs flexibility. Looking back, NSH has often been more likely to offer *longer-term* contracts to players it considers to be core pieces (Weber, Forsberg, RJ, Jarnkrok, Turris, etc...). Just with those examples you can see the pros and cons of such a strategy, whereby you engender roster stability and player (and ?fan) loyalty alongside a lower cap hit. Conversely you are committed to a significantly longer term for the player. 6y or 7y instead of 2 or 3y.
Personally I LOVE this deal. In my spreadsheet, I had Sissons at $2.6M for 3y most likely. The Predators got that AAV but have secured it over 7y! As the cap goes up, this contract will look even better.
The downside of course is his play decreases faster than one would expect as he enters his 30’s in years 5/6/7. Generally speaking however, bottom-6 players (which is all that Sissons is, will be, and all they need him to be - esp on this deal) tend to see a drop off around age 32, which is the final year of this deal. Would 6y have been better? Yes. I’d have liked it a good deal more. But I don’t think y7 will be crippling. Worst case they bury his contract in the AHL and by that time it’s likely the majority of the cap hit will be buryable so the cap implications are minimal.
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NHL Signings
Jul. 22, 2019 at 8:20 a.m.
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Winnipeg Jets signed Neal Pionk (2 Years / $3,000,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Brian2016</b></div><div>Good analysis, but I'm not convinced WPG will be a contending team next season. I could see them as low as 6th in the Central and 10th in the West. They lost a ton this summer and haven't added anyone of consequence besides Pionk. Most of the teams around them in the standings last season have improved substantially. CHI, COL, ARI, DAL, and NSH have all made big changes and big steps forward, at least on paper. The big underlying problem seems to be that nobody really wants to play in WPG. It's supposedly very cold there and very isolated.</div></div>
I don’t disagree fundamentally. But I’d expect them to at least be contesting for a playoff until the last handful of games - and certainly longer than the Rangers did the past 2 seasons (which was, basically, never). They still have 2 excellent scoring lines with an avg bottom-6 and perhaps one of the best 5 goalie tandems in the NHL, particularly if Hellebucyk bounces back. There is a big hole at LD but that’s nothing new really as it’s been there for the past 4y. For Winnipeg, finishing anywhere from 6th to 11th is reasonable but I think it’ll be close (for the playoffs).
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