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Nov 19, 2018
Tampa Bay Lightning
2nd Favourite Team
Posts per Day
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jangle29</b></div><div>the risky part about that is the multiple young high end players they have coming up soon that might make it not needed, and we may be looking for another top 6 player again</div></div>
Personally, I think the Leafs should be able to drive their offense through Marner, Matthews, and Tavares. Look at a team like Tampa, they are able to get scoring from all four of their lines. If Toronto is able to develop a culture similar to that, and also build up a really solid backend, they will be very tough to beat. Right now, without Nylander, Toronto is 3rd in goals per game, and while their goals against per game is excellent, they are sixth in shots against per game (highest for current playoff teams). Trust me, as a Lightning fan, I know that you <em>need</em> defense to win championships because you cannot rely on Freddie Anderson to maintain a .932 SV% all year, year-in and year-out.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ON3M4N</b></div><div>Would have thought for sure Halak would get the backup nod here.</div></div>
Since the start of November, Halak has played in 8 games, Rask has played in 5 games (both played in an 8-5 L against VAN). On the season, Halak has appeared 15 times (14 GS), Rask has appeared in 11 games (10 GS). I consider Halak to be Boston's starting goalie, but in all honesty, it's more of a 1A, 1B situation I feel like. Since I consider Halak to be 1A, then he's not considered to be a backup. However, if he were to be the 1B, then I would most certainly consider him for that spot.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MG1986</b></div><div>The cap crunch is real BUT the cap continues to go up year over year and although there is some uncertainly as to how much, and what the cap structure will be like after the new CBA is negotiated, there has been healthy growth. Let me put it this way, there are some teams that are cap-heavy with older slower players. The Kings come to mind, but with an continuous influx of youth, teams like the Lightning are weaving their way through this new, faster game with prospects that can handle that style of play. Sure there may be trades, perhaps of Tyler Johnson, and others, but the core will stick and the youth movement seems like it will continue. Don't be surprised if the Lightning draft Cal's brother this draft, by the way :P</div></div>
In my mind, this is the core: Stamkos, Kucherov, Hedman, Palat, Gourde, Cirelli, Joseph, McDonagh, Sergachev, Foote, Vasilevskiy. I know Foote isn't technically on the team, but we are in desperate need of a young RHD. Miller and Johnson are both extremely streaky players and can be worth the $5.25m and $5m we pay them respectively, but at other times they aren't worth anything near that. I feel like their skill sets can be replaced fairly easily, although Johnson has been here since the beginning so it would be a morale blow, and we'll probably keep him around. Killorn is in the same boat, and I feel like he's overpaid. Joseph and Cirelli are both workhorses and can do pretty much everything we ask so they're pretty valuable.
As long as BriseBois can carry on Yzerman's legacy, and draft well (maybe some more defensemen), and possibly improve on how he hands out contracts, the Lightning will be fine for years to come.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MG1986</b></div><div>The beautiful thing about the Tampa Bay Lightning that I am not sure all fans appreciate it is how well they draft and develop. I don't think you need to lose Miller or Killhorn. Foote makes losing Stralman a lot easier and you can let some of those UFA and RFAs walk, the Lightning are loaded with prospects. The only issue I foresee, that a lot of team will have to deal with is the upcoming Seattle expansion draft. Like the Leafs and so many other good young teams, the Lightning will certainly lose a good young player. Otherwise, seems like they are good for a while, even with that massive Point contract.</div></div>
Yzerman was definitely a guru when it comes to drafting, trading, and developing; BriseBois being his prodigy, makes it a much smoother transition. However, Yzerman's weakness is shown in his contracts. Johnson isn't worth the $5m we pay him anymore in my opinion, and his full-NTC until 2021 hinders our trading ability. Killorn at $4.45m for 6 years really hurts us, and he has a full-NTC until 2020, where it becomes a M-NTC. Callahan isn't worth $5.8m for two more years, especially with a M-NTC and a NMC. Of the 18 players on our roster, including Palat and Vasy who are currently injured, 13 have some sort of NTC or NMC.
I think we will need to make some trades here soon, because guys like Sergachev, Volkov, Raddysh, Katchouk, Joseph, Cirelli, Foote, Barre-Boulet, Sommpi, Spencer, Cernak, etc. will soon become regulars and will want more than $2m a year. Obviously that won't be for 4-5 years from now, but of those 13 guys with a NTC/NMC, 9 are signed until 2021-22. The cap crunch is real, and BriseBois is going to have to do some tricky maneuvering to make it work.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>That is actually completely incorrect, taxes are far more complex than that. I can't recall exactly what the numbers are but for Toronto to match a 9.5 million dollar deal with Florida, its only a million or so more. So 6.5 would be about a 7 million dollar deal in TO. TSN made a graph on this in the summer and I was surprised at how close it was. Sure it makes a difference but there are way more factors at play than just money. Facilities, endorsement opportunities etc.</div></div>
Using the post-tax earnings calculator here on CapFriendly.com, it shows that a $7m contract, for example, would result in an earning of $4,444,310 in Tampa, and $3,290,029 in Toronto. Similarly, in Tampa, a $9.5m contract would result in $6,019,310 earning, and only $4,451,779 in Toronto. I would have to argue that while it may seem relatively small, we are still talking about an extra $1-1.5m post-tax which means a lot. Not to mention the fact that Tampa has great weather, and that the media is not as intense.
I also factored in the fact that three of Tampa's superstars have taken pay-cuts to stay here. Stamkos was reported to be drawing $9-10m from TOR, and stayed for $8.5m. Hedman, who is arguably the best defenseman in the league, stayed here for under $8m. Kucherov, who is top-5 in points since 2015-16 and could easily draw upwards of $11m, stayed in Tampa for $9.5m. Players love to play in Tampa, which is why guys like Ryan McDonagh and JT Miller stayed in Tampa. Is $6.5m too low for Point? Probably. Point will probably attract $7-7.5m from Tampa, and what Nylander does, or doesn't do, will affect that.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HowYouDrouin</b></div><div>Cally and Johnson will probably be gone, maybe Palat too. Raddysh, Foote, Katchouk, Volkov, and Stephen will all probably be on roster or play games by next season. Vasy will want at least 7-8 long term. point might want to cash in now and go long term.</div></div>
Cally is definitely gone after 2019-20, but Johnson and Palat both have full-NTC's until 2021-22. I agree that those 5 might make appearances, but going off what we absolutely know right now, Volkov is the only one eligible for a full roster spot. Then again, guys like Point and Joseph showed up for training camp and made the team, so who knows for sure.