Avatar

sammy_daws1997

Member Since
May 4, 2018
Favourite Team
Toronto Maple Leafs
2nd Favourite Team
Arizona Coyotes
Forum Posts
608
Posts per Day
0.4
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 8, 2021 at 1:42 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 8, 2021 at 4:10 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 12, 2021 at 11:50 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 11, 2021 at 5:14 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 11, 2021 at 5:13 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 11, 2021 at 5:09 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CMcAvoy73</b></div><div>I don’t think you can put Matthews in that category because his deal only bought out one year of UFA. I definitely get it with McDavid, because they locked him up for 8 years, but Matthews deal seems kind of awful to me. 3 years would have been great because they would still have his RFA rights. 8 years would have been great because they would have locked up the player to max term. 5 years without really enjoying any discount kinda stinks.</div></div>

Mcdavids deal is the biggest steal of a contract of any forward in the league.. the only contract better than his is Makar. Mcdavid is so good, he would be a steal at the max AAV ($15M when he signed, 16.3M now) for the max term (8yr)

Matthews is also still a steal. Saying his deal is a bad deal because it isnt as good as Mcdavids isnt fair.

I will however say that the model i based this on doesnt account for term very well. It focusses on value in a given year. It spits out that Matthews had a value of $22M this past season and Mcdavid had a value of $19.8M this year. It is heavily stats based and obviously is biased towards goal scoring rather than assists but is fairly accurate imo (not my model though). It then applies their performance to an age curve to predict their output over the remainder of the contract and assigns a total value to the contract.

In total Mcdavids contract is more valuable because of the longer term as you mentioned, but Matthews is still very good value. Obviously there is no way to predict future contracts or account for the stability/risk associated with bringing him to UFA early in his prime so you have to asses that yourself, but I still think Matthews is on a very good contract.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 23, 2021 at 1:03 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 8, 2021 at 8:49 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 4, 2021 at 11:20 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 3, 2021 at 8:56 a.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GarthBrooks</b></div><div>Yes but Lecavalier got paid 7.7 which equates to whatever percentage Iunno the maths too good. And even that was bad because I think it’s safe to say St. Louis career ended better than Lecavalier. But say St. Louis got paid closer to Lecavalier like within a million, and then they signed Stamkos to close to that amount after his ELC (he signed a bridge I believe) (he’s the Tavares cap implication in this scenario), would that 2011 team made a run? I doubt they could afford to bring in the depth pieces they did. I get Dubas future brained it and signed them to these contracts thinking it would be more valuable as the cap moves up. I don’t blame the GM for trying something new if that was his plan. But it’s business he’s supposed to be negotiating contracts that would help the team in the long run. Now we have a window of 3-4 years before these guys hit free agency cause they weren’t signed long term which only favors the player in negotiations there is no way that helps the team signing them to that, we as fans buy tickets and merchandise to make this team one of the most profitable teams in the league and now we’re going to have to wait again. The team spent to the cap, these are all Dubas’ contracts, there’s no more Lou messed up the team, so far he has no track record of succeeding past what Lou did because he took the team to the 1st round as well and went 7 against Boston, Washington while Dubas couldn’t get us past the play in round last year and Montreal this year? The teams regressing, the North Division was just a smoke screen, the teams in it weren’t that good (or ravaged by covid), and next year we’re going to playing in a division with Boston, Tampa and Florida</div></div>

Lecavaliers $7.7M deal was 13.63% of the cap at the time which would be $11,108,450 per year today. And that was for 11 years as well at the age of 28... They are extremly comparable to Matthews and Marner in fact except they were about 6-7 years older. The main difference between them and the leafs today is that St. Louis and Lecavalier signed their contracts 4 years apart with large increases to the cap over that time. By the time Lecavalier signed his deal St. Louis was already 35 and on a deal that paid him only 9.33% of the cap instead of the 13.46% it was when he signed.. Stamkos was also still on his elc when they went on that run in 2011 so it is rediculous to compare that 2011 team and specifically his $900k cap hit to Tavares $11M and the current Leafs team.

If your point regarding Stamkos is to look to after he signed his 2nd deal worth 11.6% of the cap ($9,454,000 today) then you would be looking at aa scenario similarish to the Leafs today. That signing was right after their 2011 run and if you remember, the Lightning MISSED THE PLAYOFFS the next year and actually finished 3rd last 2 seasons later resulting in the 3rd overall pick...

The good point that you are making is actually that the biggest problem that Dubas has is that he is in the unfortunate position of signing 3 large value contracts right before an unprecedented pandemic which stopped any cap increases for a couple years. He also had to sign all 4 of his large value contracts within 2 years of each other.. Out of the 4 big value signings he made 2 of them are underpayments and 2 of them are slight overpayments but on shorter deals as to not kneecap the team long term.. Obviously if Matthews or Marner dont re-sign with the Leafs then the contracts are a failure, but neither you or I can predict the future..