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sammy_daws1997

Member Since
May 4, 2018
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Toronto Maple Leafs
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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 26, 2022 at 3:32 p.m.
Thread: To recap Cap Friendly this morning
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CoachCoach</b></div><div>Incorrect, it is quite literally a cap dump. Same with Holl. Doesn’t mean they don’t have value, but TOR is trying to shed their CAP hit so they can re-sign Sandin and sign other FAs. That is the literal definition of cap dump lol.

If it wasn’t a cap dump, teams would have reached out and inquired by now (as they did with RM). Teams don’t want to give up assets and picks for an injury prone D making that kind of money.</div></div>

Sure call it what you want.. I do have some responses to your comment though..

Firstly, neither you or I have any knowledge of whether teams have reached out regarding Muzzin, so relax.

Secondly, every report I read regarding McDonagh said Tampa had canvased a few teams and got a commitment from Columbus to claim him on waivers should they waive him (Tampa inquired not Columbus) and then they made a trade with Nashville (again, Tampa inquired).

Muzzin is still a good defenseman in this league and the leaf's will happily keep him if they are unable to move him for assets. They are under the cap with a full roster, so they just need to move someone of equal value to Sandin once he signs. Holl would also be enough based on the expected contract Sandin will get.
Forum: NHL TradesJul. 18, 2022 at 11:23 a.m.
Thread: (MTL/CHI) - 2022 1st round pick (NYI) + 2022 3rd round pick for Dach
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sammy_daws1997</b></div><div>There are a number of draft value charts that have been developed based on both player performances from each draft pick and on trade value from trades over the history of the draft.

The most agreed upon most accurate says that 4OA has a value of 783 (out of 1000). 13OA is worth 481, 26OA is worth 297 and 66OA is worth 177, which add up to a value of 955. So based on this, the 4OA pick is worth quite a bit less than 13OA, 26OA and 66OA.

https://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf</div></div>

For an example, here are the 10 4OA, 13OA, 26OA picks from 2010-2020

Year 4th OA 13th OA 26th OA 66th OA
2010 Ryan Johansen Brandon Gormley Evgeny Kuznetsov Radko Gudas
2011 Adam Larsson Sven Bartschi Phillip Danault TJ Tynan
2012 Griffin Reinhart Radek Faksa Brendan Gaunce Jimmy Vesey
2013 Seth Jones Josh Morrissey Shea Theodore Brett Pesce
2014 Sam Bennett Jakub Vrana Nikita Scherbak Nikita Tryamkin
2015 Mitch Marner Jakub Zboril Noah Juulsen Guillaume Brisbois
2016 Jesse Puljujärvi Jake Bean Tage Thompson Adam Fox
2017 Cale Makar Nick Suzuki Jake Oettinger Max Gildon
2018 Brady Tkachuk Ty Dellandrea Jacob Bernard-Docker Cam Hillis
2019 Bowen Byram Spencer Knight Jakob Pelletier Albin Grewe
2020 Lucas Raymond Seth Jarvis Jake Neighbours Kasper Simontaival

Looking at these if 4OA was traded for 13OA+26OA+66OA, IMO there are two lop-sided trade in favor of 4OA (2015 and 2018), but three lop-sided trades in favor of 13OA+26OA+66OA (2010, 2013 and 2016). The rest are fair-ish deals, and keep in mind that later draft picks develop later typically, so the more recent drafts will be biased towards 4OA. Even in 2017 when Makar was taken 4OA, the trade isnt that bad with Suzuki and Oettinger going back the other way.
Forum: NHL TradesJul. 18, 2022 at 10:39 a.m.
Thread: (MTL/CHI) - 2022 1st round pick (NYI) + 2022 3rd round pick for Dach
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Colonel_Green</b></div><div>The values of those picks are simply not equivalent. The high end of the draft is where you go for the best shot at the best players.</div></div>

There are a number of draft value charts that have been developed based on both player performances from each draft pick and on trade value from trades over the history of the draft.

The most agreed upon most accurate says that 4OA has a value of 783 (out of 1000). 13OA is worth 481, 26OA is worth 297 and 66OA is worth 177, which add up to a value of 955. So based on this, the 4OA pick is worth quite a bit less than 13OA, 26OA and 66OA.

https://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf
Forum: NHL TradesJul. 11, 2022 at 3:10 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 4, 2022 at 4:00 p.m.
Thread: LeBrun on Fleury and Leafs
I think that is still quite a bit less than Fleury would be willing to take.

I think 2-year he would be looking at about $3.5M-$4M

I also doubt he is willing to take less to play here considering he is Quebecois. Willing to play in Toronto and wanting to play in Toronto are two completely different things.

For comparison, these are some similar goalie signings:

Marty Brodeur - 2012 - Age 40 - 2 year @ 7.5% of cap ($6.2M today)
Ryan Miller - 2017 - Age 36 - 2 year @ 2.67% of cap ($2.2M today)
Tim Thomas - 2013 - Age 39 - 1 year @ 3.89% of cap ($3.2M today)
Henrik Lundqvist - 2020 - Age 39 - 1 year @ 1.84% of cap ($1.5M today)
Pekka Rinne - 2018 - Age 35 - 2 year @ 6.29% of cap ($5.2M today)

Henrik Lundqvist is the outlier in my opinion, but it can be explained by taking a bit less to stay in NY for his final season.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 18, 2022 at 4:26 p.m.
Thread: fixing the leaf from a habs fan
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MTLaveragefan</b></div><div>Toronto taxes ­&gt; Anaheim taxes

And the ducks are up and coming with their youth. Playing mentor to Zegras with all this potential is pretty exciting IMO.</div></div>

Yes but he clearly wants to play in Toronto, hence why he signed there instead of San Jose who was offering more money at the time ($12M AAV IIRC). I mean they have high state tax relative to other sunny state teams. Also Toronto has the added benefit of being paid in USD when the CAD is weaker, thus making your money worth more relative to the cost of living.

Also, the second they trade Gibson is the second they become basement dwellers for the foreseeable future. Tavares only has 3 years left on his deal and ANH will certainly not be remotely competitive in those years without Gibson (they likely wont be competitive those years with him either)

Playing with Zegras is cool, sure.. But I am going to assume being on a power play with Matthews and Marner is much more appealing to him..

Nothing about him going to Anaheim makes sense
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 8, 2021 at 1:42 p.m.
Thread: Team USA at Christmas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HOCKEYBOY448</b></div><div>Yeah Fox and McAvoy are definitely above Carlson. Everything else looks pretty good, but I’d take Troy Terry and Zegras based on this year. They both have looked fantastic imo.</div></div>

The way I look at Zegras and Terry is that they would be competing for depth spots.

Neither of them will replace any of the top 6 (Maybe Larkin? but he has also been great this year..) in the bottom 6 I think an edge has to go to older guys who have a bit of a physical/two way game rather than young skilled guys. I think it is important to have guys like Oshie/Kreider in there as they have been to the olympics before. Even a guy like Wheeler may be a good fit, just to calm the guys down in the big moments since they have been there before.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 8, 2021 at 4:10 p.m.
Thread: Team Canada Lines with PP and PK
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>faulkmydzingel</b></div><div>Crosby, McDavid, and MacKinnon are the only absolute locks barring injury. Canada has a boat load of forwards to choose from and I can guarantee you no matter what someone will be cut that will surprise us all.
Petro is the only lock on D. Most complete all around defenseman Canada has available. Again barring injury. But the options available outside of that depend solely on the direction they decide to go, experience and grit or speed and youth.

Goaltending should consist of at least one of Price or Fleury.</div></div>

I feel like to determine the locks you ask "is there a chance the last cut could surprise and beat out this player?". So if Mcdavid, Mackinnon, Crosby are the only locks you have to ask yourself "could Giroux or Schiefele displace Marner, Stone, Point, ect" and imo no they cant. The players i have as locks could have an arguably "bad" start to the year and likely would still be selected for team Canada.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 12, 2021 at 11:50 a.m.
Thread: Best Contracts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CMcAvoy73</b></div><div>Please tell me you don’t think that Dubas was happy with 5 years.

*Pastrnak and Mackinnon both took player friendly term for team friendly money. Matthews got player friendly term for player friendly money.</div></div>

Both parties would have wanted 8 years. Dubas made the smart decision to take the 5 year deal in exchange for the reduced cap hit.

And yes, it was a reduced cap hit.

Pastrnak took a crazy deal as he deserved more. Mackinnon on the other hand took a very fair deal at the time that many people were questioning as a bad deal for the team. If you remember he struggled in his first 2-3 years in the league (compared to now, he was obviously a very competent player, just not like he is now).
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 11, 2021 at 5:14 p.m.
Thread: Best Contracts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sammy_daws1997</b></div><div>No, he obviously did not have an issue with term. He wants to stay in Toronto, has said that previously and recently, and wanted long term as you said.

Dubas couldnt make that happen as the leafs (obviously) need the lower AAV so Matthews agreed to a lower AAV in exchange for less term. If he signs an 8 year deal at $15M AAV as his next contract that is still good value for the leafs. He is one of the best players in the league and arguably the best goal scorer in the league now and definitely the best goal scorer of his generation.</div></div>

5 years was a great decision by the leafs as it has allowed them a very valuable $2M in extra cap space during a flat cap period...

That is obviously dependant on him re-signing after the 5-years which should be expected...