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sensibleguy

Serf
Member Since
Jun 15, 2016
Favourite Team
Ottawa Senators
Forum Posts
2149
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Forum Threads
81
Biography
I dont need to be a mechanic to know when I have a flat tire I dont need to be a doctor to know when Ive got a cut on my finger I dont need to be an engineer to know when a bridge has collapsed
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 16 at 11:27
Thread: Montour and Tierney
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Richard88</b></div><div>Zub might be playing well, but does he really have top 4 upside like Timmins? Timmins is also exempt from the expansion draft which would help on that front.</div></div>

I see now that Timmons is exempt, I didn’t know that until you mentioned it. Colorado should really keep him then, because there’s a chance you guys lose one of Toews or Graves.

Norris is struggling. I caught flak for my observations in the first two games of the season. He’s on the 4th line now and he’s doing better, but I don’t think he should be moved up yet. White has been great, if the Sens trade Tierney, then the top three centres are White, Stepan, &amp; Norris, and that hurts. There’s a lot of moving parts in Ottawa. Paul can play centre, but he’s very dominant on the wing. Logan Brown might change the situation, if he’s called up. We always knew Tierney was the glue in the middle of the lineup, but with Norris dropped, Tierney becomes more important.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 16 at 11:16
Thread: Montour and Tierney
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Richard88</b></div><div>Zub might be playing well, but does he really have top 4 upside like Timmins? Timmins is also exempt from the expansion draft which would help on that front.</div></div>

I was going to edit in a little bit more. The Sens don’t have 3 defencemen worth protecting, but it’s the timeline that’s changed, from making a deal now to making a deal either at the TDL or the offseason before the draft.

Zub’s great, I mean he’s not a top pair D, but he’s so solid, just doing his job. He’s brought a lot of stability to this teams defence. The Sens found a nice 2nd pair guy. He won’t ever be the guy other teams target to acquire, but he’s the guy other teams would easily take in a trade.

Zub and Brannstrom are both exempt, and with Chabot and Zaitsev, the Sens have their top4 for next season. The third protected D will likely be on the 3rd pair.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 16 at 11:05
Thread: Montour and Tierney
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Richard88</b></div><div>Fair point. How about something around Graves instead of Timmins then? Tierney for Graves for example.

Btw Timmins has been 6th in TOI, but keep in mind that the Avs have arguably the best D group in the league. Being 6th in TOI isn't an indictment of Timmins, but more a reflection of the quality and depth the Avs blueline has. On many other teams Timmins would already be a regular fixture on the 2nd pairing.</div></div>

The comment about Timmons being 6th in toi wasn’t a knock on him, just to show he’s still developing. He’s going to be an NHL defenceman for a long time, for sure. It’s just that Ottawa might not have room for him. I mean, they could make room, but they don’t have to, with Zub playing well, and the pipeline, adding in Brannstrom seems NHL ready, and there isn’t a need to acquire a defenceman in Ottawa anymore. I don’t know what’s going to happen to Tierney, because trading him for a forward doesn’t make sense either. With Paul playing so well, that 8th forward, who will be left unprotected, might be Tierney, or Logan Brown, or Nick Paul. There’s no clear cut list anymore. It was that list that was driving the trade ideas.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 16 at 9:13
Thread: Montour and Tierney
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Richard88</b></div><div>Young puck moving RHD's with top 4 ability who also happen to be exempt from the expansion draft have a lot of value, moreso than a 3C with limited term or a LW prospect who likely tops out as a 3rd liner.</div></div>

With Zaitsev, Zub, and at some point JBD, Thomson, and of course Brannstrom eventually moving to the right side, Ottawa has more need for the speedy, and still improving forward prospect Formenton than they do Timmons. Timmons has been okay, but he’s 6th in even toi for defenders with 9 games this season. Maybe he’s a 2nd pair defender, maybe he’s a 4/5 defender, but he isn’t the reason Ottawa would probably decline this deal, it’s the plethora of players that can play Timmons role in Ottawa, and the need for Formenton when Stuetzle moves to centre.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 15 at 2:35
Thread: End of the rebuild
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>oilsince95</b></div><div>Well, you are proposing something in bold, that if there were a trade, it would be the trade listed hear plus more coming from the Oil. I think when the Oil have better options than that, like just playing Neal until the end, or having his 1.9 mil sit on the books while Holloway plays his 3 years ELC in place at LW are better options than resorting to a trade of any sort that requires losing a 1st, 2nd plus while another old winger takes up equivalent cap space.

Also thanks for the link to how to calculate buyouts. How would I ever have heard about buyouts and James Neal's potential buyout hit without your assistance!</div></div>

That's not a proposal, it's a point of fact. Nothing was offered. Even your semantics are lame. Move on or be ignored for stupidity.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 15 at 2:26
Thread: End of the rebuild
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>oilsince95</b></div><div>I won't spend much time arguing on what it would cost to get rid of Neal, since it's a prohibitive cost IMO, being at least a 1st and another pick as you suggest. Buyout would be better that that in my opinion, but probably, just keeping him as a 4th liner with PP ability for two more years is better. With Bouchard, Jones/Lagesson, Broberg and Holloway likely to all be part of the lineup through most of the last two years of Neal's deal, the Oil cap issues aren't going to be all that bad. Yam and Kahun will likely get short 2-3 year bridge deals to cover that time as well, at fairly middling costs. So all in all, unless the team really values something like signing a starting goalie to a 6+ million contract (which I don't think is needed if a more dependable, middle-cost short term platooner is brought in in the offseason alongside Koski, like Halak), then just getting through the last two years of Neal is doable <strong>without mortgaging the future like you propose</strong>.</div></div>

I didn't propose anything, I stated the proposed trade wasn't enough, and if you want the player, you need to add. The value is not enough. Nothing proposed, unless you consider fair value a proposal, lol.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 15 at 2:20
Thread: End of the rebuild
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>oilsince95</b></div><div>I won't spend much time arguing on what it would cost to get rid of Neal, since it's a prohibitive cost IMO, being at least a 1st and another pick as you suggest. Buyout would be better that that in my opinion, but probably, just keeping him as a 4th liner with PP ability for two more years is better. With Bouchard, Jones/Lagesson, Broberg and Holloway likely to all be part of the lineup through most of the last two years of Neal's deal, the Oil cap issues aren't going to be all that bad. Yam and Kahun will likely get short 2-3 year bridge deals to cover that time as well, at fairly middling costs. So all in all, unless the team really values something like signing a starting goalie to a 6+ million contract (which I don't think is needed if a more dependable, middle-cost short term platooner is brought in in the offseason alongside Koski, like Halak), then just getting through the last two years of Neal is doable without mortgaging the future like you propose.</div></div>

https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 15 at 2:20
Thread: End of the rebuild
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>truculence67</b></div><div>“Cost to acquire Dadonov”... what would that be exactly? A 31 year old with a 5mil cap hit <strong>on pace for less than 25 points this season</strong>. Good luck finding a trading partner without taking a bad contract back. The main reason Edmonton bites on this deal is that dadonov could be an excellent linemate for mcDavid.

I actually think that a first + Neal would get this deal done but added the second in case dadonov heats up later this season</div></div>

That's awesome statistical rhetoric, I really mean that, it's really top notch.

First off, this season is 56 games, or 68% of a regular season, so yeah, he's going to have fewer points this season because there's fewer games.
Dadonov just joined a new team, learning new systems, so he had a rough start. He has 3 points in his last 4 games, of course he's going to heat up.
Why do you want a $5MM player on pace for less than 25 points? Because you know he's not going to finish with less than 25 points. So do we.

This is where most people fail on this site, thinking that their teenage logic will convince others that their trade ideas are viable, when it isn't the people reading these threads making the decisions. They aren't fooled by statistical rhetoric anymore than we are.

Add more if you want Dadonov, or suffer with Neal.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 15 at 2:08
Thread: tdl deals within the North
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>EhRobin3</b></div><div>I get annoyed at the Byron trades as well but from a Montreal standpoint because Montreal is a better team with Byron than Without Him maybe not on paper but in practice as Montreal's winning percentage decreases by roughly 20 percent when byron isn't in the lineup</div></div>

I understand what you're saying, but that's this season, and you have to admit, he isn't the player he was 2 seasons ago at age 29, when he deserved that contact.

Byron has two more seasons left on this contract, at ages 32 and 33, which doesn;t sound horrible, but he's already in a steep decline at 31.

It's rough watching our favourite players decline. Alfredsson was a point per game player, yet his final four seasons were well below his standards, and he knew when to quit. He could have played a few more seasons, padded his totals a bit more, but he called it, and Byron is fast approaching that moment. Maybe not this season, but soon.