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sensibleguy

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Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 12:49 p.m.
Thread: Ottawa steps up for a playoff spot
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div><strong><em>Matt Murray, who could have been claimed for free</em></strong>, is now the centerpiece of a deal for Severson?

Take the goalies out and offer JBD and 1st...or something similar.</div></div>


I'm not trying to be argumentative, I just want to add context to your comment.

There are 31 teams that could have claimed Murray off waivers, and I think this was your point, any team including the NJD could have claimed him for free. Now, of the 31 teams, only 9 have the cap space to accomodate Murray's cap hit, but the NJD are one of those 9 teams, so the comment still holds weight. Of those 9 teams, 6 have goalies signed for a substantial cap hit, most for decent term. The NJD have Berniers signed for $4.125MM through 22/23, one season less than Murray. The final 3 teams, Arizona, Detroit, and Buffalo had the cap space, and do not have a goalie signed to a high cap hit and term. Arizona is entering a rebuild, and are selling their cap space for picks. That leaves 2 teams that could have reasonably picked up Murray off waivers for free. Why we think they didn't is irrelevant, as we can only speculate as to their goalie plans.

In the above trade scennario, Berniers is a part of the trade, which makes sense since the NJD wouldn't want both him and Murray. So the trade might be good, and it might be bad, but the argument that Murray was not claimed should not be used to determine the value of this trade idea.

I don't like the trade as it is, I'd swap out Sokolov for a better prospect. I like Sokolov, but he doesn't have a high trade value. JBD is just so good, so steady and reliable, and that 2nd is going to be a good pick. A decent prospect makes this a decent offer, IMO.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 9:07 p.m.
Thread: picking on Seattle again
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>Järnkrok is a quality vet the Sens could use though. If they can extend him for a reasonable cap hit. He's very versatile too and responsible all over the ice.


Järnkrok and Lauzon are valuable, more than the picks difference. Plus, the Sens dump Del Zotto and Watson. Gambrell could be let go, doesn't matter here</div></div>


The Sens don’t want to dump Watson, they like him, and they aren’t paying to move Del Zotto. They aren’t spending picks to acquire expiring contracts, and they aren’t spending picks to acquire players they will need to move again to recoup their picks. They don’t need Lauzon with Sanderson arriving soon. There just isn’t any reason for this trade.

Edit: if they want the players, sign them in the offseason, except Lauzon who isn’t needed.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 9:14 a.m.
Thread: Does Detroit Think They are Good
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BStinson</b></div><div>I take it you haven’t watched a Wings game in the last few years. First, some of those games he was a teenager or playing on a historically bad team. Another point is he doesn’t play like his scouting report he’s developed a defensive game. Not sure why your evaluating only on goals as there are plenty of factors of a player. So I guess your common sense is if you just cherry pick without any context I get it.</div></div>

Here's my point, again, and the only point I'm making, "Zadina is a PP specialist, and until he figures out 5v5, no one is going to want him".Shifting the argument one way or another doesn't change that point. You can be a homer if you want, but you're not convincing anyone of anything other than that you are a homer.

Respond again and I'll mute you
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 8 at 2:32 a.m.
Thread: Less pain
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BlackwoodForVezina</b></div><div>Ottawa doesn't want to pay 2 2nds for that maybe they would if they were contending</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>If OTT wanted to get rid of Murray they'd buy him out. His buyout is rather cheap.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheBoyDuddus</b></div><div>Not paying that to dump Murray when theyre not pressed up against the cap.</div></div>

Ahh, some common sense in these comments.

On a side note, teams don’t like to buy out players, and only do it if they absolutely have to. The main reason is a player is no longer an NHL level player, or is severely, and I mean severely, overpaid. With every Sens goalie struggling this season, no one can honestly say that Murray is the fault of the teams struggles, and is not an NHL goalie anymore.

There will be talk of a Colin White buyout this summer, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Yes it’s a cheap buyout at 1/3 cost, but they also would lose a capable NHL centre, which is a team weakness. Over paying a younger player a little is a better option than losing the asset. The team likes White, and they have missed him this season.

Guys like Murray, Zaitsev, and White have value, and until this team starts spending to the cap, their salaries are irrelevant because there’s no difference between $10MM cap space and $12MM, or $14MM. The Sens are fine through to the end of Murray and Zaitsev’s contracts, and only the final year of White’s contract may be a hindrance, and there’s always the offseason to deal with White if they need space for signing Sanderson to his second contract, which happens after the Murray and Zaitsev contracts end.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 18, 2021 at 2:33 p.m.
Thread: Blockbusters perhaps lol
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheBoyDuddus</b></div><div>Zub &gt;&gt;&gt; Ceci &amp; Bouchard</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>oilersguy</b></div><div>Ceci yes but Bouchard is unquestionably better then Zub</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Drai_By_shooting</b></div><div>Ludicrous statement/comparison. Like Oilersguy said. Bouchard is already better then Zub. Zub=Ceci. However your 1 comment says nothing about the deal in its entirety. In this deal Zub=Barrie as you stated in another post, hes the 5th highest scoring Dman in the league the last 4.3 years. With a cap hit that ranks in the 70's for Dmen.
Chabot=Nurse
Mcdavid = Norris, Batherson, Stutzle
Yamamoto +Prospects = a fair bit more then Pintos present proven value</div></div>


I'll start by stating, I like Bouchard, he was my 1st choice among defenceman in his draft.

Zub and Ceci are similar types of defencemen, so it's easy to see that Zub is better at this point.

Zub and Bouchard are very different types of defencemen, and it's more difficult to compare them. Zub isn't going to score at the same pace as Bouchard, but he's going to provide excellent defence. This doesn't mean Bouchard isn't a good defender, but it is the primary skill Zub brings. I personally don't see Zub as better than Bouchard, but I can see why Sens fans might.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 17, 2021 at 6:55 p.m.
Thread: oilers ideal trade deadline imo
EDM
2022 3rd round pick (BOS)
cap dump
OTT
Koskinen, Mikko
Additional Details:
since ottawa has 3 3rds they can get rid of one and they need goaltending desperately not to make the playoffs but just to see how their new core can play in front of competent goaltending rather than what they've got. mikko not worth a 3rd but his record might help him


This is what happens when people don't follow the other teams, and don't bother to look beyond the full season numbers. Ottawa had a rough November, giving up 4.42 goals a game over 12 games, worse in the league. They also had games cancelled due to Covid. Since November, they have given up 3.00 goals a game over 8 games, and that's middle of the pack, tied for 13th in the league. Considering they gave up 6 goals in that first game of the month, they have given up 2.57 goals a game since December 1st, when they made a defensive culture change after that game, shortening the bench and playing the 3rd pair much less.

Ottawa has Forsberg playing well, Gustavsson who is in a funk, and Murray who should return soon enough. With Sogaard and Mandolese, there's no room for Koskinen.

Also, Ottawa isn't, "getting rid of" any pick. Do you have some cash you need to get rid of? I have some property in Florida for ya...
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 17, 2021 at 3:36 p.m.
Thread: The Leafs
TOR
2022 3rd round pick (VAN)
2023 5th round pick (OTT)
The 3rd with turn into a 2nd if the Senators make it to the playoffs.
OTT
Kerfoot, Alexander

Ottawa says no, but something could be worked out, maybe.

It isn't that Kerfoot isn't worth a 3rd (probably not a 3rd +), but Ottawa is flush with left shot forwards.

Kerfoot is a very good 3rde line forward that can move up for short periods of time. Tierney and Brown are similar types, 3rd line guys who can play up the lineup, as long as it isn't for too long. The Kerfoot AAV might be $3.5MM, but his salary is only $750K after the bonus, which will have been paid. I value Brown the highest of these three, and prior to this year I would have said Tierney ahead of Kerfoot, but that may have changed.

Ottawa isn't the right team to trade Kerfoot to, Ottawa's top9 next season;
Tkachuk Norris Batherson
Sokolov Stützle White
Formenton Pinto Brown

If Ottawa did trade fr Kerfoot, a 3rd is probably fine, but no 5th, and no playoff stipulation upgrading to a 2nd, because it isn't Kerfoot who would push Ottawa into the playoffs, he'd be along for the ride.

Side note, although there is talk White might be bought out at 1/3 cost next summer, it isn't guaranteed. He's a right shot forward who can play centre, and is best friends with Chabot. They aren't going to buy him out unless they absolutely have to.