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sensibleguy

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Forum: Armchair-GMMay 28, 2022 at 2:14 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 27, 2022 at 12:54 p.m.
Thread: Pinto
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>Ryan didn't ride on Spezza's coattails. They didn't even play together that much. People anticipated great things between them but they didn't have any chemistry so they were split quite fast. Ryan mostly played with McArthur and Turris in his first few years in Ottawa and that was a great line, until each of these players got derailed by injuries (MacArthur with concussions, Turris with the Gumby incident, Ryan with hands injuries)

Why people continue to talk without knowing has always been beyond me.
</div></div>


That was the point, his argument was that Fiala will do just as well with Stützle is the same as the arguments that Ryan would do just as well with Spezza. You’ll need to go back and reread the comments, it seems you didn’t get the point.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>What a weird comment that was... Bobby Ryan was a 55+ pts / 0.70+ PPG player the first 8 years of his career. He did that in years where there was a lot less goals scored. That was first line numbers back then.

During his prime (2008-09 to 2015-16), he was the 37th best scorer among NHL forwards, with 437 pts in 584 GP (similar production to Bergeron, Duchene, Jagr, Couture, etc during that period of time)

Several hands injuries (and personal problems) is what made him decline in his late 20's. Who knows how long Fiala's prime is going to last? Or if teams are going to figure out ways to reduce goals against, once again.

Even if you don't account Fiala's first 4 seasons (0.48 PPG player with Nashville), Fiala has been the 27th best forward scorer since his "peak" started in 2019-20. It's great but the hyperbole was ridiculous

If you start comparing at the "same age" (21 years old), then Fiala has been 55th in forwards scoring since 2017-18</div></div>


Again, you didn’t get the point.

I compared the same situation from the other side, the Bobby Ryan side. What a player did before a trade is not always an indication of how they will perform after a trade.

Bobby Ryan continued his PPG pace with Ottawa, he just changed his ratio of goals to assists, until the hand injuries occurred.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 26, 2022 at 7:01 p.m.
Thread: Pinto
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 26, 2022 at 6:00 p.m.
Thread: Pinto
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 26, 2022 at 11:45 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 26, 2022 at 11:31 a.m.
Thread: Pinto
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>IcemanJoe</b></div><div>I’m curious why you think his assists will decline? He was playing with a 4th line C and a rookie last year. I actually think he’s a 90+ point guy when he’s with other offensive minded guys.

Also Fiala won’t be looking for a short term deal, I’d imagine 6 is the fewest years he’ll do. Russo speculated he’s looking for 7-7.25 mil per. I’d imagine that’s over 6/7 years. He just put up 85 points, now is his time to cash in. Wild only offered 6 mil / 3 last year.</div></div>

Fiala’s goals are pretty steady
23G in 64 games, 0.36 goals per game
20G in 50 games, 0.40 goals per game
33G in 82 games, 0.40 goals per game

I’m not going to break down PP versus 5v5 goals

Boldy, that rookie, made his NHL debut on Jan 6th

Fiala’s splits before and after Jan 6th
31 games, 7G, 14A, 21 pts, 0.68 PPG
51 games, 26G, 38A, 64 pts, 1.25 PPG

Gaudreau’s splits before and after Jan 6th
25 games, 2G, 8A, 10 pts, 0.40 PPG
51 games, 12G, 22A, 34 pts, 0.67 PPG

Boldy is going to be good, and he’s the reason for Fiala’s uptick in assists.

MIN had a good team before Boldy arrived, so it’s difficult to say Fiala will have the same success as he did with Boldy, and even with Boldy, Fiala’s numbers could return to their previous levels, hard to say. I see this as Fiala’s career year, and on a contract year that’s good for him. New team, new line mates, new system, we’ll see how he fairs, but I’m not worried about his goals, they will come.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 26, 2022 at 4:33 a.m.
Thread: Pinto
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Pretty big overpay. Refer to Reinhart trade, should be a bit better than that</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sens65</b></div><div>Pinto may not have a huge trade value but Sens fans value him over everyone except the core players. We think he has Bergeron potential, so not trading him.

Roby Jarventie and the 7th overall is a much better offer that I'd do.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wildwinswhen</b></div><div>Jarventie is a nice player, but we have ALOT of left handed LWs. He won't be the guy if we're taking a prospect.

If the fans think Pinto is Bergeron, there's no way we're getting him. Which is too bad. We really need a RH center or defenseman.

What about Kastelic or Bernard-Docker?</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wildwinswhen</b></div><div>Sounds like Kastelic is a tweener. Can score 14 goals in the AHL, but not good enough to be an NHLer. The Wild have had a few of those guys in their system.

I think the prospect will be either GMBG working some magic to get Pinto or he'll target JBD. We need a plan for the future at RD.</div></div>

I’m not sure why people keep referencing the Reinhart trade since that first was top 10 protected and Ottawa’s is a known #7 OA, unless it’s just the pick + prospect, but that is pretty standard. Since the Ottawa pick is so good, the prospect will not be an A prospect, which is what Pinto is.

Kastelic is a depth guy, he was protected in Ottawa and still didn’t do that great. He’s very good on draws though, iirc, and that’ll keep him in the discussion for the 23 man roster. Right now, I expect Gambrell to be the 4C, or Kastelic maybe. Both are place holders for Ostapchuk for when he arrives.

The 7OA might be enough on it’s own to get Fiala, but it depends on the bidding war. I’m not overpaying for Fiala though. He’s good, but I think he is going to cash in and then have trouble living up to his contract. Every team has an overpaid player, might as well be a 30g guy. BTW, I believe it’s his assists that will decline, putting him back to a 65-70 pt player.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 19, 2022 at 11:42 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JustanIdea</b></div><div>I'm actually an Ottawa fan and I wanted to conceptualize what a Dunn trade would look like and I though of this, where Ottawa gets ride of all their cap dumps and gives Seattle two pieces that will be important in Thomson and Jarventie that Ottawa probably doesn't need.

I also think that if Dunn is available for not all that much then Ottawa should run to get him cause he is a top four defenseman capable of playing both sides and he would make a pretty darn good partner for Sanderson considering that they play very similarly. I also wanted Jarventie cause if you paired him with Bedard then that could become the Mikko Rantanen Nathan McKinnon pairing. And I viewed Thomson as an important complementary piece of the 2nRD behind Jirichek.

This really is more of a pipe dream but these are the types of players that I would want if I was Seattle. I would also tank for Bedard cause then you'd have a semi-local superstar that would sell huge amounts of tickets.</div></div>


Rethink the Dunn trade where these three players;

Zaitsev, Nikita
White, Colin
Murray, Matt

Aren't cap dumps

Does Zaitsev make more than he should? Probably, but not so much more that he needs to be dumped. Dumping a players salary means his cap hit <strong>far exceeds</strong> his worth, AND, the team needs cap space now. I've proven Zaitsev's worth.

White might make more than he seems to be worth, but looking at his advanced stats, his PDO, his age and ability to take another step up, and his contract isn't as bad as some would have people believe, but regardless, the chatter is about buying him out at 1/3 cost (a bad idea), not spending assets to dump him, that's just ridiculous.

Murray is suffering from concussion symptoms. He's either healthy and playing well, which isn't a cap dump, or he goes back into concussion protocol and LTIR where his contract doesn't affect the cap. Definitely not a cap dump.

Sure 25 year old Dunn can play the right side, but so can 21 year old, natural right shot, Lassi Thomson. There's no rush to promote Thomson or JBD with Zaitsev, Hamonic, and Zub on the team, not to mention Brannstrom. No assets needed to be used to acquire them.

Getting Dunn isn't really needed anymore, maybe 1-2 seasons ago, but not anymore. Sanderson has arrived, and Brannstrom is still available.

This is just a lot of giving for something that isn't needed
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 19, 2022 at 7:49 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 19, 2022 at 7:24 p.m.
SEA
Daoust, Philippe [RFA Rights]
Järventie, Roby
Zaitsev, Nikita
White, Colin
Murray, Matt
Thomson, Lassi
2022 2nd round pick (OTT)
Additional Details:
This is basically two trades in one as Ottawa gets a bona fida top four defensemen in Dunn and gets out of the contracts of Murray, Zaitsev, and White. So I'll kinda explain it in two seperate trades with the first one being the Dunn trade and the second one being the Murray-Zaitsev trade.

1. This trade is primairily Jarventie and Thomson for Dunn and I get that those are two pretty good prospects for Ottawa but Ottawa does need a top four defensemen and Dunn is pretty good all over the ice and is a physical defenseman that can score and that plays pretty well into DJ Smith's system. Jarventie and Thomson are also blocked on the way to the NHL level as there is more depth there. I also think that the Sens will keep and prioritize JBD cause other than Zub they don't have a defensemen with the same profile.

2. The trade is pretty much White, Murray, Zaitsev, and Daoust for nothing as that's 15 million in cap dumps and that allows the Sens to pay Stutzle, Sanderson, Pinto, and Norris in the coming years and that cap space does allow them to add on more freely in the coming years. Plus it allows Seattle to get to the Cap floor and Daoust is pretty much in the same boat as Jarventie and Thomson in that he doesn't really have a path to the NHL. Plus he is a way's away but does have good scoring talent.
OTT
Dunn, Vince
Additional Details:
Ottawa gets a cost controlled young top four defensemen that is an RFA at the end of his contract that can contribute at all ends of the ice and would probably fit well in DJ Smith's system and would give them a more balanced defense core as he is kinda a very similar but less talented Chabot.


Ottawa says no
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 19, 2022 at 1:51 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Claesson4Norris</b></div><div>Ottawa could trade Pinto for an impact winger and keep White as 3C and not be in a bad spot imo. I don't think they will or even should, but everything but the point totals suggest that he's a lot better than he's credited for. With health, I think a Formenton-White-Brown 3rd line would be pretty money next year.


Still think the buyout is coming and he's gonna go figure it out in Boston, and I think Pinto is gonna stay in Ottawa too.</div></div>


I think Boston would be very interested in Boston local Colin White, if he were to be bought out, with Bergeron’s future unclear.


<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>csick</b></div><div>I like Pinto moving to the wing too.</div></div>


Hurting his shoulder on a faceoff definitely gives me pause. Let’s swap Pinto and White in my lineup…


<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>If we acquire nobody then I hope this would happen :

Tkachuk - Norris - Joseph
Greig - Stutzle - Batherson
Formenton - Pinto - Brown
Kelly - Kastelic - Watson
Gambrell

I like White but he's not a Top-6 forward and should be on the 3rd line. However, I would rather have all of Formenton, Pinto, Brown and Joseph (if we acquire someone) on the 3rd line too. Nick Paul too if we could re-sign him. So we might have to think about saving money (owed 15.75 M$ for the next 3 years)

Might as well buy him out or trade him in a package to get a Top-6 Winger (with the 7th OA pick and another asset? Like Brannstrom for example)</div></div>

Definitely a lot of 3rd line forwards and bottom pair defencemen on this team, lol
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 15, 2022 at 4:27 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hogie5</b></div><div> He had 35 goals this year, if he wants to be here long term then his agent will use Brady tkachuk and svechnikovs contacts as comparables. I’ll agree with Joseph but formenton had 20 goals this season and showed a lot of potential, I don’t think something around the 3 mill range is too much. Why would you buyout MDZ when he only has 1 year left? It would affect the cap for a couple years after. A white buyout will only cost 875k against the cap which is ridiculously cheap considering he makes something like 4.95 mill per year. I agree that they should be targeting a top 3-4 dman, but I don’t have any sort of trust in Pierre dorion and that’s why I signed Kulak. Pierre will say he’s the top 4 guy we need when in reality he’s a bottom pair guy. </div></div>



I know the White buyout numbers very well, as I've posted on this numerous times now. White might get bought out, but if he is, the bloggers will roast Dorion with their 20/20 hindsight analysis. People keep calling it a no brainer without understanding both sides to the argument. I think it might be too complex for most people, so they just quote the 1/3 payout cost without realizing that the $10.5MM they save is pretty close to what it would cost to replace White, and that replacement player would be older with zero growth potential, and might not be a locker room glue guy like White. The team also loses an asset, 25 year old White, and would need to spend assets to replace White, or overpay in the UFA market. Anyone who say's the replacement is already in house probably doesn't understrand that Joseph would be that inhouse replacement. So the team loses Paul and White, and gets Joseph and a 4th, which presents a different issue, people using the White contract to say "good" to that swap, when the assets are already removed by the buyout, so it becomes a double buyout in their thought process without them even realizing it.

It's complex

With so many middle6 forwards, and pieces that can be moved into different spots, people focus on Pinto being White's replacement, when that has already occured, and White was being moved to the wing already, so it's a winger who replaces White. Now this goes against other points already made, which is both true and not true. It's fluid and complex. Not everything is black and white, but when you ask about White's buyout, it's a black and white response, it's a no brainer because it's at 1/3 cost.

I haven't even touched on White being Chabot's best friend, being born on the same day and being drafted together, both in the 1st round of 2015., and how well White is regarded by everyone. He helps keep the locker room loose.

They brought in Joseph to possibly ease the loss of White, but White's contract isn't as bad as some make it out to be, and buying out White is a locker room miss they don't need to make. It's better to trade White than to buy him out.


Formenton, 13 even strength goals in 79 games. He's a 3rd line winger who excels on the PK with 5 SHG. Yes he has potential, but he needs to show it more than once. He gets a raise, but not a huge raise. He'll be given a qualifying offer, and maybe sign a 1 year deal.

Norris is not Svechnikov or Tkachuk, he doesn't bring those intangables. I'd suggest Suzuki, but that contract is high. I think it's a bridge deal like what Elias Pettersson received, but lower. They're not sure what they have, so they may be cautious if they can't get a long term contract for a good dollar amount.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 14, 2022 at 10:57 a.m.