SalarySwishSalarySwish
Avatar

steveospeak

Member Since
Aug. 19, 2017
Favourite Team
Pittsburgh Penguins
2nd Favourite Team
Vegas Golden Knights
Forum Posts
302
Posts per Day
0.1
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 25, 2018 at 11:31 a.m.
Thread: Ottawa trade
I think the Boston, Edmonton and Toronto trades are a bit off, but the one I don't get is the Karlsson trade, to me that is a major undersell especially since Ryan's contract isn't attached and EK is signing an extension as part of the deal.

Callahan's contract is complete dead weight and so underwater at this time that it's maybe worse than Ryan's contract. Ryan at least still shows some offensive production, he's been down the past two seasons, but played far better than Callahan. To take on 2 years of Callahan's contract alone a team should get a 1st rd pick and more.

Even ignoring the negative value of Callahan's deal, you would be trading Karlsson for Foote, Cirelli and a 1st rd pick. That 1st rd pick is very likely to be among the last 4 in the rd so while it's nice it's not a big move the needle piece. Cirelli had a nice breakout year last year helping Tampa down the stretch and in the postseason, but he's probably not the offensive force he showed in his time in Tampa as I'm guessing his 19% shooting percentage is unsustatinable. He's probably like a 3C type of player going forward, definitely solid value, but not a star. Foote is the biggest name of the deal as Tampa's 1st rd pick a year ago and probably a top 100 prospect in hockey. There is a lot of upside here, but he's probably 2 years away and not as sure of a thing. That is 3 solid pieces, but Karlsson even without an extension should fetch more than that.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 25, 2018 at 1:58 a.m.
Thread: Pens upgrade at the wings
Do the Pens get better on the wing much less as a whole with this trade?

I get that it is easy to say Hagelin is overpaid for his production and he probably is, but look past the 31 points last season at how valuable he is on the PK and opening up other things with his speed. While it's quite possible the Pens end up trading Hagelin, it shouldn't be taken lightly.

I also get that the Pens have center depth on paper and Brassard was underwhelming last year after the trade, but I think both are being blown out of proportion. While I like having the center depth, it's also a pretty risky group. Sheahan had a solid bounce back year scoring 32 points and he did a nice job winning 54% of Face-offs, but he still only scored 32 points despite spending much of the year at 3C. His 32 points is an improvement from the 13 and 25 points the previous 2 years, but he's unlikely to be a 40-50 point guy. I love bringing Matt Cullen back for his leadership and experience, but he's coming off a 22 point year and turns 42 in November. He's likely going to be more limited this time around. He can still contribute and help, but I don't see you relying him him for 14 min of ice time a night for the full season. Derek Grant had a solid 24 points in 66 games last year, but prior to that hadn't done anything in 86 career NHL games. To rely on this trio to handle both the 3C and 4C duties next year is really risky.

As for Brassard, yes I know he didn't do a lot after the trade, but an injury had something to do with that. He still had a pretty strong season overall averaging .64 points per game, well above any of the other options. Brassard should be a 45-60 point player this year (probably will be the lower end given the lack of PP opportunities), with strong face-off and possession numbers.

Giving up Sprong also negates the idea of strengthening the wing, as he has the scoring potential to be quite the goal scorer himself. I'm not saying he'll match Pacioretty next season or maybe ever, but as a 20 year old in the AHL he had 32 goals (65 total points) in 65 games. It would not be surprising to see him tally 20-25 goals as a rookie if he earns a spot on one of the top couple of lines.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 25, 2018 at 1:28 a.m.
Thread: Senators rebuild
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>athrin</b></div><div>LOL Stone is better than both and he has not played with a C like Mathews in his career.</div></div>

Stone may be the better player, but he's not worth more in a trade. Its not even close. He's got 1 year of control remaining, at 26 years old. Nylander (who is also a center mind you) has 4 years of team control remaining at the age of 22, he's already put up back-to-back 60 point campaigns. Marner is even younger at 21 with 5 years of team control remaining and followed up his 61 point rookie season with a 69 point performance.

To say Stone is the best player of the 3 currently is fair, but it's already pretty close and Nylander and Marner are 4-5 years younger with the same amount of control. That is worth so much more in the trade market that really it's not that close.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 24, 2018 at 6:20 p.m.
Thread: Senators rebuild
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>athrin</b></div><div>OTT is not trading Stone to a divisional rival for trash, if you wants stone is starts with nylander or Marner ++</div></div>

Stone has one more year left on his deal and it sounds like he's leaving. Marner and Nylander are worth more than Stone by themselves. Both are 60+ point players with big upside and a lot of team control left.

It's possible that Ottawa could get a better deal, but a couple decent prospects, a 3rd usable piece and a 1st and a 3rd are hardly trash. Johnsson has torn up the AHL the past two years and is ready to make the jump to be a quality middle six winger, maybe even better. Timashov is a good prospect as well who has looked pretty solid in the AHL at age 20 and 21, he prob. needs one more year to be ready.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 24, 2018 at 3:47 p.m.
Thread: Yikes....
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dirtysaucedonny</b></div><div>To me, this is not a lottery team. if things are left as is, I would see them finishing somwhere between 10-12 in the East, maybe 20-24 overall.</div></div>

Every team that doesn't make the playoffs is a lottery team, so it they are 10th-12th in the East, they are a lottery team. Sure the odds are less that you land a top 3 pick, but Carolina finished with the 11th worst record and only a 10% chance at a top 3 pick but still wound up with the 2nd pick in the draft. So if in your hypothetical they are 20th-24th overall, they'd still have a 10-19% chance of sending a top 3 pick to Colorado.

If EK is gone and Duchene and Stone appear to be right behind him as they don't sound likely to stay, why hold on to them just for the chance to lower the pick you give up? It doesn't help Ottawa in any way and actually hurts them because every other round the Senators pick will be lower. More importantly you'd likely lessen your trade return for Karlsson since it would only be for a couple of months and it would be harder for a team to work out an extension as part of the deal. If you are hanging on to Stone and Duchene you lose them (and potentially other FAs) for nothing. What is the benefit for Ottawa if they aren't a playoff team?
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 13, 2018 at 5:29 p.m.
Thread: Would this work CAR/EDM?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F50marco</b></div><div>Hmm I agree Draisaitl int he best player in the deal. I don't think anyone can argue against that. but your analysis of Sekera IMO is way off. He has an NMC which makes moving very hard and he had horrendous year last year. not too mention makes quiet a pretty penny. I'm an outside perspective on this so no bias from my part.

Skinner is a very good goal scorer. Multiple 30+ gaol guy and still young. Faulk is a premier dman. Not a superstar by any means but I think would become EDM's best dman. Rask is a 3C on an elite team. On most teams can be a 2C. More importantly, they are all young. Sekera is getting old.

So while yes they lose a top center in Draisaitl, they are making every other position stronger and losing some high cap in Sekera who won't be living up to that contract for his remaining years and isn't as tradeable as you make it seem.</div></div>

Tying a bad asset to one of the best young players in the league is a horrible idea for Edmonton from the get go. It's why the Ottawa wanting to package Ryan with Karlsson is such a bad idea. If the Oilers need to get out of the Sekara deal they can buy him out. Or they could find another situation where they would be able to get him to waive his NMC.

Yes Skinner is a good winger, but Draistal has the makings of being an elite center. He has back-to-back 70 point seasons and will be just 23 this season and signed to a reasonable rate for 7 years. That's the toughest position to find in the NHL, and you are getting a price break versus what could be found on the free agent market (not that you typically see center's of that caliber on the market). Faulk would be a top line option for Edmonton, but again he's still just a good player, not an elite guy. And he's only signed for 2 years so there isn't a ton of long term value there. Rask is a good 3C that is true, and he's signed for 4 years which is nice, but he's the weakest piece of the deal. His contract is fair, but it's not like he's a bargain.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 13, 2018 at 5:17 p.m.
Thread: Hurricanes Oilers trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>urbinato</b></div><div>How about if Hurricanes throw in 2nd rd pick in 2019 or one of Hurricanes defensive prospects?

I think you're right, Oilers won't do this because Drai is very valuable. But they have a LOT of money tied up in centers while needing help elsewhere.

The other option would be Faulk for RNH. That's a fair player for player trade in my opinion.</div></div>

Having money tied up in centers is exactly where you want it though. Caps have a lot of money in Backstrom and Kuzy, Pens have their money tied up in Crosby and Malkin. That is a proven strategy to win in paying your star players. I just don't see adding future picks/prospects as a way this would make sense for the Oilers. 7 years of a young star player at a premier position at a reasonable rate is worth a ton in trade equity. Look at Draistal vs Tavares, both are signed for 7 years, but JT is $11M a year vs $8.5M and at the end of Tavares' deal he will be 34, where as Draistal will be 29.

I do think RNH is the guy who could be traded, because while he's good and productive, he's hardly elite.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 13, 2018 at 4:50 p.m.
Thread: Hurricanes Oilers trade
I don't think this is really close, Draisaitl has to be one of the top commodities in the entire game. He's got back to back 70 point seasons, plays the center position and is locked up to a very reasonable $8.5M for 7 years. Skinner is a good winger, but only comes with one year of control (even an extension isn't helping much) making nearly $6M. Faulk is a good defenseman, but again not great. He's signed for 2 years $4.8M a year. It's not that Skinner or Faulk are overpaid, just there isn't really any surplus value from their contracts, esp. since both will be in line for raises. If the Oilers extend both they could be looking in the neighborhood of a combined $13-14M in salary. Sure they get a solid prospect back as well, but that isn't coming close to the value of one of the top young centers in the game.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 13, 2018 at 4:40 p.m.
Thread: CanesBB#2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>vikhodush</b></div><div>Lucic isn't "easily" getting back to being a 50+ point player, his best days are behind him and that contract was a nightmare. They'll be happy to get out of it without thinking they're losing potential production.

I'd also assume the Skinner trade would include an extension agreement before trade is signed off.</div></div>

Lucic's last 4 years prior to last season were 50, 55, 44, and 59. It's definitely quite possible he has a couple more 50 point seasons in the tank, he's just 30 years old this season I wouldn't put him out to pasture just yet. I agree the back end of that deal looks bad, but this season and the next yr or two after he can reasonably offer production close to justifying the deal. They may eventually need to salary dump his contract or buy it out, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to do that now.

Vegas very well could be looking at a rental who they can extend like Skinner, but my point is they aren't going to trade away a core piece now to do so. They would trade prospects/picks not a guy who was 2nd in goals and 5th in points for them last year. That isn't filling a hole for Vegas with that type of trade it just moves it to another position.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 12, 2018 at 1:30 p.m.
Thread: Geno x2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Pens666887</b></div><div>I am not high on ZAR at all and i am not crazy about Maata's game, he is slow and weak along the boards. I am a real big fan of Dandonov so perhaps it is a slight overpayment. Plus we also have cap space to add defensive depth.</div></div>

I think you are way undervaluing Maatta and ZAR.

Maatta is going to be a 24 year old quality 2nd pair defenseman signed reasonably for the next 4 years. He's got good possession numbers and contributes a fair amount offensively as well. Pens don't have the defensive depth to replace him and financially they don't have the money to bring in someone of his caliber as after this deal they only have just over $2M in cap space. They'd have to give up extra assets to trade for someone and will probably need to increase their offer in hopes to get some sort of salary retention.

As for ZAR, he too will be 24, but he's signed for less than $1M this year and should be cheaply under control for another 3 years after that. I don't expect him to rack up 40-60 points, given he's likely not going to see a lot of top 6 work and won't play a lot on the Power Play, but he has some offensive skill and can give the bottom 6 a solid threat when he's in. The other issue is he's likely to be one of the 4 top forwards for the PK this year. With Rowney and Kuhnackle gone, there is definitely an opportunity there and he's likely to fill it.

That is a lot to give up to go from Brassard's production and ability to play center, to Dandonov's better production and one extra season. I just fail to see how that makes the Pens better contenders this year.