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suburbanrobot
Member Since
May 23, 2019
Favourite Team
St. Louis Blues
Forum Posts
99
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 5 at 2:50 p.m.
Thread:
STL Blockbuster
If you think that Buch AND Parayko are getting traded in division you're nuts.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 5 at 2:48 p.m.
Thread:
Colton
Lol what in the world is that return for STL, especially including Toropchenko. Not even going to comment on the return for other teams.
I love Leafs trades.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 18, 2022 at 12:18 p.m.
Thread:
Arizona Deadline
I'm not 100% sure the market for Chychrun is as strong as people on this site believe. He's had an abysmal season (understanding his last two were very strong) so the huge ask that's gone around for "Eichel like return" seems unrealistic. Sure AZ could just hold on to him and if that remains the ask I think that is the most likely outcome because I don't know that any of the teams that have been mentioned as vying for his services are going to pay that price.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 12, 2022 at 1:46 p.m.
Thread:
Schenn
Schenn has an NTC which he is almost certainly unwilling to waive. Otherwise I think DA would be willing to have the discussion because the contract looks rough down the line.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 11, 2022 at 5:03 p.m.
Thread:
Another Option - CDH
Seems like there are two factions here -- one that wants to see some blue line upgrades and willing to pay, and another that wants to hold firm.
I think there are several defenseman out there that would improve the blue line, where the Blues have been undeniably weak this season. There are the more expensive/sexy options like Giordano and Chychrun, but also some less heralded guys like De Hann, Lyubushkin, Wideman, Pysyk, Mayfield, and Kulak that I think would provide an upgrade or at a minimum some depth. Even if you stick with Mikkola-Parayko and Faulk-Krug, Bortuzzo hasn't exactly set the world on fire this year and I'm not comfortable at all with the RD depth behind him should someone get hurt. There is a bit more depth on the left with Krug, Mikkola, Perunovich, and Scandella.
It would be a very Doug Armstrong move to add a depth defenseman at a minimum. Who plays if one of the RD get hurt?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 11, 2022 at 2:50 p.m.
Thread:
Blues 2022-23 Chychrun -Tarasenko
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Boltsbeathabs</b></div><div>And 25 Other teams still outbid that offer. Scandella has negative value to AZ and downgrades the package. This doesn't come close to the Eichel calibre return they're looking for, but I do appreciate your homer veiw on it.</div></div>
I mean, this is essentially the exact offer that the (few) Arizona fans are putting out there so not sure how it is a homer take.
I still think it is more likely that a Chychrun deal doesn't get done at all, but if it is going to happen this is plausible.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 11, 2022 at 2:09 p.m.
Thread:
movez
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>Bortz is way better than Kulak, and better than Wideman, too. Not sure why folks seem down on Bortuzzo all the sudden. He's an ace PK man and his GA/60 at evens in the lowest on the Blues defense this season. Bortuzzo is fine, he requires no upgrade expense.
Hell, if Colt stops making silly errors (and we lay off the stupid turnovers in/near our zone), our defense is just fine.</div></div>
Advanced stats on Bortz this year are abysmal -- he's a minus defensively at even strength and a complete offensive black hole. Best quality to his game (statistically) is that he's a relatively strong penalty killer. Off ice he seems to be a good "glue guy". But it's hard to argue that the Blues couldn't do better at RHD. Wideman and Kulak are having sneaky good seasons from an advanced stats perspective, though admittedly I haven't watched a lot of Habs hockey this year.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 11, 2022 at 1:52 p.m.
Thread:
movez
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>Why are the Blues giving a 3rd for someone who'll only sit in the press box? And for the 1000th time, the Habs are not getting Holloway for a dump.</div></div>
It's really too bad Kulak is LD because he'd be a nice upgrade over Bortuzzo on the right side. That 3rd RD position has been very shaky for the Blues this year and it has flown under the radar.
edit: I wonder if a low pick would get Wideman? He'd be a Bortz upgrade as well IMO. Assuming the Blues do something put a different LD with Parayko, that would push Mikkola down to play alongside whoever is on the right side at that point. I wouldn't mind a Wideman-Mikkola 3rd pairing.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 11, 2022 at 1:38 p.m.
Thread:
Blues 2022-23 Chychrun -Tarasenko
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Boltsbeathabs</b></div><div>You seem and I could be wrong saying Chychrun has to be traded I don't think just because they're seeing the market means he has to go and shouldn't go unless they get a king's ransom and this isn't that</div></div>
I agree, with the caveat that there is probably no bigger Perunovich truther out there than Bill Armstrong, and Perunovich would stay under team control with Arizona for several more years than Chychrun. If you believe that Perunovich is an all-star capable blue liner, you take the deal knowing that Chychrun has a lot more value to a team trying to win now than he does to Arizona who won't compete for a few years yet.
A deal involving Perunovich and Chychrun is just such a natural fit it's hard to miss. Chychrun is a great player that can help a team win now but that's not what Arizona needs/wants. Perunovich has legit all-star upside and fits best with a team that is looking to win 2-3 years from now. Bill Armstrong was literally the guy that got STL to draft Perunovich, and Perunovich is not well suited to the Blues roster construction which already has two offensive dman and needs a better defensive player on Parayko's left side.
I could be wrong, but I'd put down real cash on the idea that IF a Chychrun deal gets done, it gets done with St. Louis with Perunovich going the other way.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 11, 2022 at 12:49 p.m.
Thread:
Blues 2022-23 Chychrun -Tarasenko
Another Isles option would be Josh Bailey + Mayfield but the draft capital is going to go up and the deal is more complicated given he makes another million.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 11, 2022 at 12:15 p.m.
Thread:
Pick One
Hard no from STL on this one. Scandella needs to go in a Chychrun deal to make the cap work, and Thomas makes this FAR overbalanced to Arizona. More likely the Blues would add a prospect like Bolduc and another draft pick -- they aren't going to deal a roster guy that Chychrun doesn't immediately replace. I realize that this makes a Blues deal more unlikely, but that's as much as they are going to go.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 11, 2022 at 12:13 p.m.
Thread:
Blues 2022-23 Chychrun -Tarasenko
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NickC1988</b></div><div>It wouldn't be close to the best offer AZ receives. LA could pony up 2-3 of Turcotte, Clarke, Grans, Vilardi, Thomas, or Madden. STL is in the conversation sure, but they aren't going to be the frontrunner.</div></div>
I agree, this was a hypothetical look in the case it does happen. No doubt LA can make a better offer if they choose to do so, but given the Blues seem to be very much in the conversation figured I'd take a rip at what the team would look like next year assuming it happens.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 11, 2022 at 12:10 p.m.
Thread:
Blues 2022-23 Chychrun -Tarasenko
I'm a little surprised at the Beauvillier defensiveness from the NYI crowd. He's a 0.5-0.6 PPG player with a ~20 goal ceiling on a team that basically cannot score. He's a fine player but far from a world beater. The idea that NYI would not even trade him 1:1 for Tarasenko is quite honestly nuts if the team is actually trying to win. Otherwise they should be flipping him and others for draft capital and/or prospects. He's got 2 more years of team control before UFA...
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 11, 2022 at 11:55 a.m.
Thread:
Blues 2022-23 Chychrun -Tarasenko
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Boltsbeathabs</b></div><div>25 teams in the league beat that AZ trade offer</div></div>
Possible. It's more directional assuming the Blues do indeed get him. If there is an extra draft pick or player it wouldn't substantially change the build here.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 11, 2022 at 11:54 a.m.
Thread:
Blues 2022-23 Chychrun -Tarasenko
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>Offensively he probably is, but Beauvillier is more of a two way speedster anyway, which is a type of player NYI severely lacks. They're stacked with veteran wingers already.
NYI needs another Beauvillier - like player and a top 4 D and they're right up there again.</div></div>
Fair enough, I went Isles here because they were linked heavily to Tarasenko before the season and there was obvious interest there, and Tarasenko has been nothing but great this season while Beau has underperformed. Tarasenko return is likely two roster guys at this point. I think this is a better fit than you may think, especially for a team like the Isles that desperately needs someone that can score goals.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 11, 2022 at 11:47 a.m.
Thread:
Blues 2022-23 Chychrun -Tarasenko
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NickC1988</b></div><div>Somehow you got a better return for Tarasenko in his 30s than what you gave up for a top pair Dman that's 23.</div></div>
I really don't agree on this at all -- Perunovich + Bolduc + 1st rounder is a LOT more than Beauvillier and Mayfield.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 11, 2022 at 11:45 a.m.
Thread:
Blues 2022-23 Chychrun -Tarasenko
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>Think the ARI deal is just fine, but the NYI deal needs work. It would only make sense for Isles to invest in a pending UFA winger like Senko next year if they go all in, which makes moving assets like Beauvillier impossible.</div></div>
The thought is that Tarasenko is a massive upgrade over Beauvillier so still a move to improve the roster. Not sure how married the Isles are to him after disappointing results. He only has one additional year over Tarasenko.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 11, 2022 at 10:45 a.m.
Thread:
Blues Next Year w Chych
Man those 3rd-4th lines are tough. Definitely a downgrade from this season. And I think you are unfortunately a bit low on the price for Mikkola (guessing more like 1.25-1.5) and maybe Kostin. Husso will get more than that on the open market as well, I think more like 2.0.
It is going to be very tough sledding next season. I think the greater likelihood is that Tarasenko gets sent out, Perron resigned, and maybe one of the big 2 RFA deals get done (probably Thomas).
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 11, 2022 at 9:43 a.m.
Thread:
Chychrun
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NoVaSpartan</b></div><div>Yeah, it is definitely going to be tough. NTCs given to Saad and Schenn won't help either. Maybe if they can manage to get rid of 1 or both, they could be able to keep Kyrou, Thomas, and O'Reilly.</div></div>
If they can get rid of the Schenn deal it changes the game, but it will be very expensive...it's already negative value and has 6 seasons after this one. Krug and Faulk deals will start to age poorly as well, but that was the cost of keeping the cup window open.
It is really interesting that most of the NTCs DA has given out partially expire in 2025 -- Faulk, Krug, Schenn, Saad can all submit 10-15 team no trade lists at that point and that's it. I think he's planning on the team competing through 2024-25 and then blowing it up for the rebuild.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 11, 2022 at 9:24 a.m.
Thread:
Chychrun
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NoVaSpartan</b></div><div>I'd feel more confident in STL if they did just that. It's going to be more interesting in 2 years when Thomas, O'Reilly, Barbashev, Kyrou, Sundqvist, and maybe Tarasenko(if he manages to stay) ask for new deals.</div></div>
Dead on...the Blues realistically have 2 more seasons to compete for a cup. Then Thomas and Kyrou both hit RFA -- you figure at this point Thomas gets something like 5x6.0 and Kyrou could easily command 9.0+ at this pace. You end up having to lose Tarasenko, Barbashev, O'Reilly just to pay those guys, and there isn't a lot in the AHL to replace them.
Doug Armstrong is a goddamn wizard but I just don't see how this team stays in the top tier after 2022-23. They will need to reload for a few seasons and get back for 2025-26.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 11, 2022 at 9:12 a.m.
Thread:
Arizona
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>xercuses</b></div><div>Blues accept</div></div>
They can't without sending salary back. That's why Scandella keeps going the other way in all these trades. Sure this would be a fine deal for the Blues but would put them well over the cap unless they are able to pull some TB-style LTIR shenanigans.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 11, 2022 at 9:09 a.m.
Thread:
Heavy retool
From the Blues end...there is no need for or desire to have Brassard, even for free. Depth forward is a position where the team is beyond loaded.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 10, 2022 at 10:51 p.m.
Thread:
Based on 31 Thoughts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Chopper02</b></div><div>Goalies are almost always a crap shoot. Blues have also made a lot of bad decisions when it comes to goaltending as well (trading Bishop in favor of Allen for one). As you said, Binnington is signed for 5 more years but I don't have a ton a of faith that contract will age well.</div></div>
It's already a bad deal. I liked it when it was signed but it was a calculated risk that to this point has not worked out favorably unfortunately.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 10, 2022 at 10:50 p.m.
Thread:
Based on 31 Thoughts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dtd_tank</b></div><div>Gave up Dunn for free and now looking to pay big for a replacement? Doesn't make sense.</div></div>
Dunn is nowhere close to the player Chychrun is...
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 10, 2022 at 10:41 p.m.
Thread:
Singing the Blues
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sicarius</b></div><div>Let’s define losing Tarasenko. If Seattle had taken him that would have been losing him. What the Blues trade him and get a 1st and valuable assets this no longer qualifies as losing. Losing a player refers to getting nothing in return when a player leaves the organization.
The Blues lost Brett Hul for example.
Your use of advanced state sounds like an agent arguing for more money.
Tkachuk is in the last year of his deal. Realistically, what’s his next deal look like, 9+ million per season? You don’t have to convince Blues fans that Tkachuk is good. We all know he’s a great player but he’s not a generational player. I wouldn’t want to pay him what he will get if I were a GM.
The value of a player isn’t just measured in advanced stats. For example, I’d rather pay Perron close to 4 million for the next 4 years than pay Tkachuk 9 etc..
Pretty much all Blues fans would like Tkachuk on the roster if the circumstances were right. Neither this trade nor real life presents it.</div></div>
I mean...you are moving the goalposts. You said in your last post "Tkachuk Would not be the best player on the Blues roster". That's not correct and I cited a bunch of stuff to basically prove it out, though not sure I should have bothered because you dismissed it as sounding like an agent asking for more money.
So now that we have established that Tkachuk would in fact be the best player on the Blues roster, we get to the work of figuring out a fair deal for him. In this case, the proposal was basically Tarasenko and Thomas for Tkachuk (I'll ignore the rest to keep it simple).
Tkachuk would come with let's say 8x8.5 AAV.
Tarasenko has 1x7.5 and then is gone. Thomas has 1x2.8 but the Blues have team control thereafter. He likely either takes a deal like 8x6.5 (maybe a bit more) or a 3-4 year bridge deal at a slightly lower cost.
So your two options:
Scenario 1 (trade Tarasenko for pick+prospect): Thomas at 2.8 year 1 and ~6.5 for several more years, 1st round pick, mid-level prospect
Scenario 2 (trade Tarasenko + Thomas for Tkachuk): Tkachuk at 8x8.5
Then the question -- would you trade Thomas + a 1st round pick (Tarasenko return) + a mid-level prospect (Tarasenko return) for Tkachuk on a long term deal? I say yes, you probably say no. Either way, it certainly isn't a "ludicrous" play as you said in your first post.
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