Jun 5, 2017
Columbus Blue Jackets
2nd Favourite Team
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Trying to respond to everyone at once...
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shibbal18</b></div><div>How does StL afford 8.65 mill being added to their already cramped cap situation</div></div>
So as many have pointed out, St. Louis is going to have significant cap space opening up, with three defensemen hitting free agency. Meanwhile, no significant forward is hitting FA for them. Since Bowmeester probably is not going to be resigned, Edmundson shouldn't expect much of a raise (probably not above $4.5), and Gunnarsson can probably be brought back for cheaper, the 8.65 if worth it for them uniquely, specifically because of how David Backes fits into their team immediately. Meanwhile, St. Louis gets the starter they've needed for years.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ON3M4N</b></div><div><strong>Last 15 Games</strong>
Halak - 2.99 GAA / .899 SV%
Rask - 2.22 GAA / .924 SV%
But hey lets trade Rask and let Halak be our stater</div></div>
This is true and I can't deny this. However, Rask is one of the few pieces that this team can likely move to make cap space for McAvoy, Carlo, Heinen, etc. Because he has put up good numbers lately, his value is still high, enough for the Blues to take a buyout-proofed Backes contract back, while still getting a pick back. I don't love to do this, but the only other alternative I see is trading Krecji, and I think that's a tougher move to replace. There are quality goaltenders on the FA market this year.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>yet_another_armchair_gm</b></div><div>Ignoring the trade, Erik Karlsson is in no way the FA the Bruins need.</div></div>
I made the assumption here Zdeno Chara retires. If that happens and the Bruins have the cap space, I think they would be well served to get Karlsson. That being said, I also considered Panarin/Stone in the discussion also.
Disclaimer: The Hurricanes are one of the few teams I invest significant emotional energy in, so this may be a slightly colored opinion.
When Rask was signed to that 6yr, $4mil extension, a lot of people looked at his trajectory curve and defined him as a #1 center in the making. Obviously, that has not happened. He does do some things well (he's adept at entering the zone, and he makes pretty good transition passes from defense to offense). As many have pointed out, he's a positive faceoff man (though I don't think he's positive enough to make a consistent/noteable difference).
However, players in this league that can consistently score the puck and drive play are extremely valuable. Nino has had a strong relative CF% over the years in Minnesota, and is still in the black. Additionally, he continues to score points, and is on a 40-point pace in what many would consider a bad season for him. Meanwhile, Rask is in an epic slump and on pace for a total nearing 20 points on the season (he did miss a significant chunk of time with finger surgery) and has had the bottom completely fall out in terms of shot production on the ice. While Nino is not a center, the Canes trio of Aho-Staal-Wallmark has proven to be more than serviceable, and Rask was easily the odd man out. More scoring talent (in general, but especially with what seems to be the imminent departure of Ferland) is a great pickup for that.
I can't say the same thing in Minnesota, a team not lacking centers. Theoretically, it's possible to see Rask filling the 3C spot in Minnesota, but that seems like a ceiling, more than a floor.
Ultimately I think what would be considered a good season for Rask is probably the floor for what Nino can accomplish. The Wild get some credit for clearing a little space, but the Hurricanes don't get any demerits: they have lots of cap space to use.
I think the Canes win this one in a walk, barring significant injury to NN.
Forum: NHLJul 6, 2018 at 9:43 I know offer sheets never happen anymore, but I can't resist thinking that the timing may be too perfect for these two players.
Stats from 2017-18
Dylan Larkin: 16G, 47A, 63P, 19:51 AvgTOI, 49.9 FO%, 50.7 CF% (+2.9rel)
Anthony Mantha: 24G, 24A, 48P, 17:18 AvgTOI, 51.8 CF% (+4.1rel)
Both players have shown themselves to be remarkable contributors on the upswing. Mantha is just 23, Larkin only 21.
Meanwhile, here are some key Detroit salary cap figures
Remaining 18-19 Cap Room: $6.127 million
Remaining players to add: 1 defenseman
Moveable contracts > $1mil:
- Luke Glendening (1.85)
- Tyler Bertuzzi (1.4)
- Martin Frk (1.05)
- Johan Franzen (~4, LTIR)
- Frans Nielsen (5.25, 10 team no-trade)
- Niklas Kronwall (4.75, 10 team trade)
- Jonathan Ericcson (4.25, 19 team no-trade)
- Jimmy Howard (5.291)
As you can see, it would be a magic act for the Red Wings to fit both of these players into that $6mil window. Almost all of those moveable players are near-negative assets or worse.
Is there an opportunity for one savvy team to go after Mantha or Larkin here, or am I just dreaming?
Forum: NHLJul 5, 2018 at 3:45 Forum: NHLJul 5, 2018 at 3:02 Forum: NHLJul 4, 2018 at 7:06 Forum: NHLJul 4, 2018 at 1:46 Forum: NHLJun 28, 2018 at 10:17 <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rodzikhockey93</b></div><div>I think you are forgetting one major question:
Which team will i have the most long term success in? I think above all, he is going to go to a team where he feels he will play the best. For the first 2-3 years that would be SJ. But remember, Burns is getting old by then, Pavelski will be gone, Thornton is out. Then he is in a way back to square 1 being " The guy" because the talent pool after that drops prett drasitically other than couture. in TML he would have a solid 6-8 years of long term success where the fame is more spread out throughout the team between him matthews and marner. I don't think he would be the #1 guy in TML as i think Matthews will be right wtih him. The market is heavier in tml then SJ but the spotlight will be allmsot as bad in SJ once the team starts to get younger</div></div>
If Tavares signs in Toronto, he might not end up being the #1 center, but, at worst, he's a 1B, and he's absolutely going to be seen from a media standpoint as the top guy.
I'm not sure Tavares is willing to sell on the Sharks as a long term contender either. Yes, their players are getting up there in age, but there's no reason to think they will dramatically fall off in skill. Furthermore, San Jose has proven to know how to build around a core, so even as that core ages out, they should do a pretty solid job of filling around them.
No question, the Leafs can provide the hometown angle, and I could be wrong in a fair number of my assumptions. But it isn't the kind of vibe I get from him.
Forum: NHLJun 28, 2018 at 3:58 <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>krakowitz</b></div><div>Marleau doesn’t have to be moved. They’ll have both Marleau and Horton expiring at the same time, which is almost a combined $12M. That’s going to give them a ton of relief and enough room for their core.</div></div>
The tougher part is the year in-between, where Mathews, Marner, and Nylander all are making 7+. Moving Marleau isn't necessarily required, but it likely means other salary/players are on their way out, or you're getting quite the hometown discount from those three.
Here's where I think Tavares stands in the thinking process.
- I can win a Cup with at least five of the six franchises, and potentially the sixth (NYI)
- I will make loads of money wherever I go, so while the tax issues are nice, there are ways around it
BUT there are three key questions we don't know the answer to:
1) Does Tavares want to be "the guy"? If he does, then NYI and Toronto become the top destinations. If not, the other four become much more appealing.
2) Is Tavares willing to sign a short term deal? If he does, this favors Tampa, Toronto, Boston, and Dallas. If not, then it favors the Islanders and the Sharks.
3) Does Tavares want to be in a location where hockey is towards the top of the food chain? If he does, then Toronto and Boston make sense. Otherwise, San Jose, NYI, Tampa, and Dallas work.
1Y, 2Y, 3Y -> Toronto
1N, 2Y, 3Y -> Boston
1Y, 2N, 3N -> New York Islanders
1N, 2Y, 3N -> Dallas and Tampa
1N, 2N, 3N -> San Jose
I've gotten the indication that the answer to each of those questions is "No". Therefore, San Jose is the team I would expect him to go to.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hockeyplayer1</b></div><div>What happens to Faulk now?
CAR now has 3 first pairing RHD plus TVR.
Slavin - Pesce
Fleury - Hamilton
Dahlbeck/Bean? - TVR</div></div>
The door is open for Faulk to be traded, although it would be interesting to see if they attempt to put Faulk or Dougie on their off sides, so that they're in one-timer position. Additionally, with the organization struggling to sign their RFAs, it wouldn't surprise me if they keep Faulk just because he's under contract.
In terms of players who could fill that #2 LHD spot, I would be highly suspect of Fleury or Dahlbeck. Bean is a nice prospect but probably not ready for full-time NHL duty, never mind a top 4 position. I would expect for them to make a run at someone via trade or free agency who can fill in that spot, at least for this season.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Missouri</b></div><div>After Treviling said he wasn't going to trade Dougie, he does! Wow huge suprise. Calgary wins IMO as they got a younger dman who is going to be a elite defenseman in a year or 2 and they get Lindholm who i also think is going to be a dominant scorer in the league for years to come.</div></div>
I think this shows a lack of familiarity with the Hurricanes recent play.
You seem to assume that Hamilton and Hanifin are roughly equal, when that simply is not true. Hamilton is a true #1 defenseman, making just about anyone with a tad bit of skill a positive player. Although the Hamilton-Giordano pair was symbiotic, there's no question that Hamilton had more success when away from Giordano: just check their WOWY charts.
Meanwhile, although Hanifin certainly had a solid season, he was absolutely put into a more sheltered role, as the Slavin-Pesce top pair ate up most of the difficult minutes. While he's probably a high-end middle pairing guy right now, there's no doubt he is the inferior player to Hamilton, and I personally see his ceiling is lower than Dougie's, if he even reaches it.
Lindholm has never been, and never will be, a dominant scorer. On a Carolina team where he was consistently paired with Jeff Skinner, Lindholm never produced more than 45 points in a season, and has a low shooting percentage for a top-six forward. We're at the point where his shooting skill is a known minus to his game, and although he grades better defensively and as a playmaker, I would not expect him to crack 20 goals or 60 points in any season. Additionally, if and when the Flames pay him just south of $5mil per season, they will probably not be getting their money's worth.
I'll admit Ferland and Fox were probably irrelevant pieces to the Flames, so Calgary probably got more value from their perspective, but there's no question in my mind that Hamilton easily beats Hanifin and makes up part of the difference between Lindholm and Ferland. Adding Fox likely puts this over the top for Carolina, although we'll have to wait a few years to see how this trade truly grades out.
Forum: NHLJun 22, 2018 at 5:32 <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>You are going way overboard for a defensive defenceman. Dermott could very well already be more valuable. He showed great in his first half season in the NHL. Johnsson and Kapanen could score 40 goals between the two and Sparks was the best goalie in the AHL last year, (Goaltending being the biggest weakness Carolina has). A defensive defenceman isn't worth 40 goals, let alone a highly regarded young goalie and a 22 year old defencemen poised to join the top 4 in TO as soon as this season.
With this evaluation (Literally just made this up) I would say Sparks and Johnsson would make a fair trade for Pesce. Throw in a 3rd from TO for good measure but all 4 of those pieces is an extreme over payment.
Chris Tanev, who is currently better than Pesce, albeit a more injury prone player, (a lot of those injuries are bad luck though) would only net the Canucks a 2nd and a non roster prospect. So I think something like Sparks, Johnssson and a 3rd would be a fair price for Pesce.</div></div>
I mean you can think what you want, but you're ignoring a significant number of realities and really only looking at it from a Leafs' homer perspective. You seem to define Pesce as a defensive defenseman and therefore a #5 at best, when in reality he plays a #2 or #3 at worst for Carolina. He's definitely better than Tanev (check hockey reference -> nearly the same PPG along with much better possession metrics and shot charts, especially with no powerplay time) and he's locked in at an extremely reasonable rate for a top 4 defenseman for six years. Furthermore, Carolina needs pieces to play in their lineup NOW, not later.
Meanwhile, in my mind, you overrate the Leafs pieces (especially Kapanen, who probably profiles as a third-line winger) significantly, while failing to realize that the total impact of those Leafs on the current roster isn't very large (Dermott plays the most significant role, as the #5 defenseman).
Maybe I came in too high, but I think anything not involving Dermott-caliber or better is a non-starter for Carolina.
Forum: NHLJun 19, 2018 at 9:39