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tad77

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Jun. 5, 2017
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Forum: NHL TradesFeb. 28, 2018 at 8:52 a.m.
Thread: (NYR / BOS) - Spooner, Lindgren, Beleskey, 1st, and 7th for Nash
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ON3M4N</b></div><div>Well if the rumors are true and Kovy/Grabner wants to return then those are some serious pieces coming back. Now imagine if the Rangers somehow manage to sign a JT or trade for a Karlsson. The Rangers could turn things around pretty quickly if they do it right. They can also just stockpile picks and build a deep pool.</div></div>

Based on them trading out McDonagh, I think the Rangers see this as a 2-3 year rebuild, if not longer. And Boston was at the top of Nash's trade list. With the limited number of RW options on the FA market and in our system, I would love to see the Bruins offer him a 2-year, $4.5-5mil AAV deal or a 1-year, $5.5mil AAV deal.
Forum: NHLFeb. 27, 2018 at 12:13 p.m.
Thread: Final Stretch Predictions
Atlantic:
1. Tampa Bay - P
2. Toronto
3. Boston
------
4. Florida
5. Detroit
6. Montreal
7. Buffalo
8. Ottawa

Metro
1. Philadelphia
2. Pittsburgh
3. Washington
4. Columbus (WC1)
5. New Jersey (WC2)
--------
6. New York Islanders
7. Carolina
8. New York Rangers

Central
1. Nashville (West Champ)
2. Winnipeg
3. Dallas
4. Minnesota (WC1)
----------
5. Colorado
6. St. Louis
7. Chicago

Pacific
1. Vegas
2. San Jose
3. Calgary
4. Los Angeles (WC2)
-----------
5. Anaheim
6. Edmonton
7. Vancouver
8. Arizona

Tampa Bay
vs. ---&gt; Tampa Bay advances in 6
New Jersey

Toronto
vs. ---&gt; Boston in 6
Boston

Philadelphia
vs. ---&gt; Columbus in 7
Columbus

Pittsburgh
vs. ---&gt; Pittsburgh in 5
Washington

Nashville
vs. ---&gt; Nashville in 4
Los Angeles

Winnipeg
vs. ---&gt; Winnipeg in 7
Dallas

Vegas
vs. ---&gt; Vegas in 7
Minnesota

San Jose
vs. ---&gt; Calgary in 5
Calgary

Tampa Bay
vs. ---&gt; Tampa Bay in 7
Boston

Pittsburgh
vs. ---&gt; Columbus in 6
Columbus

Nashville
vs. ---&gt; Winnipeg in 6
Winnipeg

Vegas
vs. ---&gt; Vegas in 5
Calgary

Tampa Bay
vs. ---&gt; Tampa Bay in 6
Columbus

Winnipeg
vs. ---&gt; Winnipeg in 5
Vegas

Tampa Bay Lightning
vs. --------&gt; Winnipeg in 7
Winnipeg Jets
Forum: NHL TradesFeb. 25, 2018 at 10:33 a.m.
Thread: (NYR / BOS) - Spooner, Lindgren, Beleskey, 1st, and 7th for Nash
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ON3M4N</b></div><div>I think you may see him get reps on the #1 line. Nash is a big body that does a lot of damage around the net. Marchand/Bergeron are great board guys and find ways to get shots from the slot. With Nash in front to clean up goals would be amazing. Then you slide Pasta down and let his speed pair w/ the speed of DeBrusk and that's scary as well. Krejci as the slower forward because the trailer and opens him up for wristers from between the dots</div></div>

I guess I can see that but Pastrnak has this incredible chemistry with Marchand and Bergeron that I would try to keep that line together first. The Krecji line has generated a ton of shots from the high slot, so if Nash could get into the front of the net (which, based on the hockeyViz heat maps, he's very good at), there might be a ton of rebounds to cash in on. Meanwhile, the MBP line already creates a ton of shots from in close.
Forum: NHL TradesFeb. 25, 2018 at 9:54 a.m.
Thread: (NYR / BOS) - Spooner, Lindgren, Beleskey, 1st, and 7th for Nash
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ON3M4N</b></div><div>Would have preferred not having to retain nearly $2 million on Bels, but I don't hate the deal.

Picks are picks

Spooner - in the off-season was always put in deals to get someone to take Bels contract. While Spooner has had a resurgence, he was a RFA at the end of the year and was going to price himself out of BOS, not only that, but Spooner is more of a 3rd line/PP Specialist (still a solid 40-50 pt player). Lindgren is a nice grab and has top 4 potential...at minimum he'll be a solid 3rd pairing, leadership type player.

BOS gets a vet to play with Krejci and DeBrusk, someone that is a 3-zone player and hopefully can help towards a playoff run. Now the question is, being so early and BOS playing in BUF, does Nash make his debut tonight?</div></div>

Yeah that retained salary on Beleskey is really the killer in this deal. It would have made a lot more sense if it was 0 or 25% retained. I'm somewhat upset they couldn't find a way to get the Rangers to eat more of that.

But at the end of the day, Nash is a massive upgrade over Spooner, and sometimes that the price of doing business. I don't think Lindgren has a top-four future, especially not with the Bruins, and the first round pick is going to be a late first rounder.

I hope Boston can find a way to retain Nash beyond this year.
Forum: NHL TradesFeb. 24, 2018 at 2:17 p.m.
Thread: (EDM / NYI) - 2019 3rd round pick for Davidson
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hockeylover360</b></div><div>He might crack the Isles top 4...</div></div>

+1. Davidson is actually a pretty decent defenseman, and is an RFA. Great move by Snow.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Davidson (traded to Islanders) has been decent this season in shot volume and quality but bruised by unfavourable-to-him goaltending. <a href="https://t.co/RR1bRAKx79">pic.twitter.com/RR1bRAKx79</a></p>&mdash; Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) <a href="https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/967474459153240065?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 24, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Forum: NHLFeb. 22, 2018 at 11:23 p.m.
Thread: Evaluating Karlsson Trade Desinations: 2018 TDL Version
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>krakowitz</b></div><div>They still have Sami Vatanen, and I'd assume that Ottawa would want one of those young, top four RHDs coming their way. Andy Greene isn't all that great anymore, so I'd expect them to be looking for a top-four LHD this offseason anyways (I see Calvin de Haan being a good fit via free agency). I see the framework being like this, one deal with Ryan and one without.

:devils
Erik Karlsson
Bobby Ryan

:senators
Sami Vatanen
Pavel Zacha
Blake Speers
John Quenneville
2019 1st round pick (NJD)

OR

:devils
Erik Karlsson

:senators
Sami Vatanen
Pavel Zacha
Michael McLeod
John Quenneville
Mackenzie Blackwood
2019 1st round pick (NJD)
2020 2nd round pick (NJD)</div></div>

Both of these make sense. Might add a late pick to that first one going to Ottawa, but it's within the ballpark for sure.
Forum: NHLFeb. 22, 2018 at 8:06 p.m.
Thread: Evaluating Karlsson Trade Desinations: 2018 TDL Version
Under most circumstances, 30 teams would be lining up outside the Canadian Tire Center to make a deal with Ottawa to acquire Erik Karlsson. He's that good a player, on that good a contract. However, there are many mitigating circumstances right now, including the Trade Deadline, Ottawa's desire to shed money, and salary cap gymnastics. However, there are still teams that would be willing to make a trade with Ottawa. I will break down the no-shots, pretenders, and the contenders. First, we have to shorten the list of teams. We'll do this by identifying rivals Ottawa won't trade with, teams likely on Karlsson's no trade list, teams that are eliminated from 2018 playoff contention, teams that would have to send significant money back to Ottawa, and teams that have a very small need for defensive help.

1) No chance Ottawa trades Karlsson to these markets
- Eliminated: Toronto, Montreal
2) Likely on Karlsson's No Trade
- Eliminated: Arizona
- Remaining: 27
3) Not realistically in playoff contention
- Eliminated: Buffalo, Vancouver, Edmonton, Detroit, Chicago, NY Rangers
- Remaining: 21
4) Low Cap Space/Need to send returning money
- Eliminated: Minnesota, Washington, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Florida, Anaheim
- Remaining: 15
5) Teams that have a small or no need for defensive help
- Eliminated: Nashville, Winnipeg, Philadelphia, San Jose, Columbus, Carolina, Calgary, Los Angeles,
- Remaining: 7

Remaining Teams: Boston, Dallas, Tampa Bay, New Jersey, Vegas, Colorado, NY Islanders

Tier 3 (The Unlikely, but Possible)
:bruins :islanders :avalanche
<em>Boston</em>: It's pretty hard to imagine the Bruins, perennially in Ottawa's path, as contenders for it. However, because of Ottawa's recent success against the Bruins in the playoffs, there may not be the same geographic rivalry concerns that exist with the Canadiens and the Leafs. Furthermore, the Bruins have a rather deep prospect pool and plenty of young players that are already in the NHL. The Bruins would also need to send salary back, but in a small form which could probably be flipped rather easily. The Bruins' interest in Ryan McDonagh indicates they aren't satisfied with their defense, but is Karlsson's handedness and increased price tag worth it for Boston?
<em>NY Islanders</em>: When you have the goal-scoring capabilities the Islanders do, it's extremely difficult to watch as the team bleed goals on the back end. With two draft selections very likely to be in the top 20, the Islanders have a nice stash of picks and potential prospects, along with a significant need on the defensive end. However, any money they would need to send back at least short term money, and does adding Karlsson really sway Tavares' future? Furthermore, Garth Snow has already set the groundwork for a low-action trade deadline, saying it doesn't make sense for the Islanders to give up their picks for this team. While they definitely are a wildcard, don't consider them a likely destination.
<em>Avalanche</em>: Depending on how desperate Joe Sakic is to move out Tyson Barrie, there's an interesting potential trade surrounding the Sens and Avs. Furthermore, there's also lots of Ottawa's original assets they could reclaim in a deal to move out Karlsson, particularly their first round pick (likely in 2019). However, with Colorado outside the playoff picture right now, and still needing to stock the prospect cupboard further, the Avs may not be interested in making that kind of investment.

Tier 2 (The "We'll take Bobby Ryan"/"We really want to win this year" Group)
:stars :devils :goldenknights
<em>Dallas</em>: The Stars don't seem like a team that could realistically fit Karlsson. Furthermore, they already have John Klingberg on the right side of their defense. That being said, they have the high-end prospects to get it done, and a GM who is more than excited to try and make this happen. There also exists the capability for Karlsson to be resigned, despite the presence of Tyler Seguin, thanks to the stellar John Klingberg deal. While I wouldn't put Dallas as the front-runner, they should not be counted out.
<em>New Jersey</em>: The Devils are a very interesting contender for Karlsson, if only because they seem like the team on this list that has the greatest need for defensemen, now, and in the future. With Taylor Hall lighting it up, Nico Hischier proving to be a capable top-line center, and a world-class goaltender, the Devils have found themselves solidly in the playoff picture. However, they have some clear holes at defense, lacking a true top defensive-stalwart. Karlsson would fit well in the Devils system and give them that top-line presence that would immediately launch the Devils into the contender conversation. The problem is that the Devils don't have a ton of great prospects. The solution? Taking Bobby Ryan, who is from New Jersey.
<em>Vegas</em>: Las Vegas has shocked the world this year, quickly ascending to the top of the league with stellar numbers, and it looks like they may not come down any time soon. There's also pieces for the future in Marchessault, William Karlsson, Nate Schmidt, Shea Theodore, and Alex Tuch. Would adding a second Karlsson to the mix put them over the top? It would certainly finalize a formidable top four, and would dramatically improve an already solid defensive team. Karlsson also fits right into the new system. The only hesitation with the Knights is the prospect cost. Would they be willing to move players, even when they've only had one draft class?

Tier 1 (The Obvious Landing Spot)
:lightning
<em>Tampa Bay</em>: Prospects to give? Check. Young NHL players that don't affect the Lightning roster too much? Check. Need for a top-four defenseman? Check. Trying to win the Cup right now? Absolutely. The Lightning check all the boxes for a Karlsson trade, and it could transform the Lightning from an elite team to one of the best teams in recent memory.

My top 5 most likely landing spots:
1. Tampa Bay Lightning
2. Dallas Stars
3. New Jersey Devils
4. Las Vegas Golden Knights
5. New York Islanders