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Big John T
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Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 9, 2018 at 4:36 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 8, 2018 at 10:06 a.m.
Thread: Just because a defenseman shoots right does not make them a top pair defenceman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Capitalfail67</b></div><div>Leaf fans hate when they get average trade value for nylander who wants to be grossly overpaid. But they turn around and make a trade that would barely get you Brooks orpik for a young rhd stud. I don’t get it.</div></div>

Let's not be hasty. Orpik's not going anywhere. Top three in playoff hits, blocks, and plus/minus? Fifteenth in primary assists by a defenseman and ted for 1st in SCF GWG? Earning just 1M? Not for Johnsson, Holl, and a 1st. Back to back, baby!

I mean, since Orpik's injured...maybe for Gauthier and Ozhiganov.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Here is a question that needs to be answered well for me to even begin to believe anyone on here has a clue what they are talking about.

The consensus value of Nylander from a contractual basis, appears to be in the mid 6 millions. I'd wager that anything under 8 would very quickly still look like a great deal because Nylander's upside is very high. Manson's contract is 4.1. Pesce's contract is under 4. Chris Tanev 4+. My point here is these are all more defensive defenseman and none of them are worth more than they are getting for what they contribute.

So if the hardest thing to do in hockey is create offense, why is the player that contributes that worth less in a trade than a guy who's better than average at preventing offense but doesn't contribute any himself?

"The Leafs would have to send Nylander plus for Pesce". Every fan on here seems to think that a right handed defenceman is worth more than Nylander. Contracts alone say that is not the case, point contributions say that isn't the case, players upsides say that isn't the case.

My point is right handed defensive defenceman are not all stars, they are good players to have but they don't put butts in the seats and they don't win games.

Hey Leaf fans remember when we got Komisarek who was the best right handed defensive defenseman available? How did he do?</div></div>

Defensive defensemen do seem to play on winning teams, but (a) the stats on measuring defense are still weak, and experts still make mistakes and (b) Manson and Pesce, relative to other RHD their age, are very, very good at offense, so your question does not apply. We've discussed this.

If Nylander at 7M were a good gamble, the Leafs would sign him, and trade him next summer, after he scores 30 goals. If it doesn't work, they can just trade Marner.

Whew. Glad that's solved.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 8, 2018 at 10:06 a.m.
Thread: Just because a defenseman shoots right does not make them a top pair defenceman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>I understand your sentiment, but I don't understand why every half decent defenceman is now an allstar who gets you 22 year old highly skilled players who have big upsides. Manson is 27, he's on the back end of his prime and he's never really accomplished much. His career high in points is a meager 37 points.

The hardest thing to do in the NHL is score, that is why people who score more, get paid more. How much money does the best defensive defenceman get paid? Keep in mind that a defensive defenceman is a guy who plays a lot of minutes but scores around 30 points or less.

So now tell me why Pesce, Manson, Tanev, and others like these players don't get paid more than 4.5 million? Is it because they aren't worth more than the contracts they are on? If that is the case (Which it totally is), then how are they worth players who will get paid more because they can do the hardest thing in the sport better than most others.</div></div>

Manson is not the guy that goes out and gets you points, that's not the role he's suited for. He's a great DFD and Anaheim suffers when he's not on the ice. He has a great shot against impact when he's on the ice as teams tend to get -1 excess shots per hour from in between the faceoff dots (high danger area) during the time that Manson is on the ice. You can't say that just because he only has a career high of 37 pts that he isn't worth what Anaheim is giving him. He's worth more than 4.1
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 8, 2018 at 10:00 a.m.
Thread: Just because a defenseman shoots right does not make them a top pair defenceman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>I understand your sentiment, but I don't understand why every half decent defenceman is now an allstar who gets you 22 year old highly skilled players who have big upsides. Manson is 27, he's on the back end of his prime and he's never really accomplished much. His career high in points is a meager 37 points.

The hardest thing to do in the NHL is score, that is why people who score more, get paid more. How much money does the best defensive defenceman get paid? Keep in mind that a defensive defenceman is a guy who plays a lot of minutes but scores around 30 points or less.

So now tell me why Pesce, Manson, Tanev, and others like these players don't get paid more than 4.5 million? Is it because they aren't worth more than the contracts they are on? If that is the case (Which it totally is), then how are they worth players who will get paid more because they can do the hardest thing in the sport better than most others.</div></div>

You do realize that hockey isnt all about scoring right? Manson is a shutdown DFD who skates well, plays very tough minutes, and can play the PK. He's a top 15 NHL dman on a steal of a contract. The Leafs, or any team, would wet themselves over having chance to pick him up.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 8, 2018 at 9:52 a.m.
Thread: Just because a defenseman shoots right does not make them a top pair defenceman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>I purposely made a trade that isn't the best. I did this because I want to stress a point. Playing on the top pair and being a top pairing defenceman are not the same thing in all cases. Hainsey is a top pairing defenceman currently, but no one in their right mind would call him that. Josh Manson may play on the top pair in Anahiem but he's not a top pairing defenceman. Fowler or Lindholm are far better than Manson. Manson would play on several top pairs but he isn't an elite defenceman. Same goes for most of the guys fans are trading to the Leafs for Nylander.

If teams could get huge returns for their defenceman why is no one trading defenceman?

I think the reason we aren't seeing these trades is because GM's understand what fans just don't. Defenceman are completely overpriced. Paying a kings ransom for someone who puts up 30 points a year makes about as much sense and paying a 4th line grinder huge money because you need that physicality. (That is not directly aimed at you or Tom Wilson, just making a point about wasting money on stuff that can be found for far less)</div></div>

If it was a defensemans job to put up points they’d just put forwards there.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 8, 2018 at 9:49 a.m.
Thread: Just because a defenseman shoots right does not make them a top pair defenceman
I am not saying he is a top pairing defenseman, and I am not sure many people are. With that said, he is a young defender, on a very reasonable contract with term. He also plays big minutes and plays a style of game the Leafs don't really have on their back end at the moment. He also skates pretty well for the kind of player he is. Josh Manson clocks in at 23:00 minutes of average ice time per game. To put that in perspective, only Morgan Reilly clocks in at more than 22 minutes ATOI (22:30), and Manson plays as part of defensive unit that features both Lindholm, Montour and Fowler. He may not be a top pairing guy, but he's the kind of defenseman the Leafs need. Oh, and he kills penalties. Leafs currently have Hainsey out on our primary PK unit. Also, if the Leafs deal with Ducks, they will likely need to take back additional cap space. Ritchie's $1.45 million AAV won't cut it to a team hinging on LTIR relief at the moment.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 8, 2018 at 11:34 a.m.
Thread: Just because a defenseman shoots right does not make them a top pair defenceman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>To answer that question you would have to look at some kind of WAR stat, or something that you can compare different player types/positions with. You also have to consider that some of these guys signed contracts before they really evolved into what they currently are. Nylander doesn't fit that mold after to 60+ pt seasons to begin his career. And like you said, offense is valued over everything else when determining a player's contract. It shouldn't sound outrageous that a d-man making less could be worth more than a forward making more.</div></div>

I took a look at Manny's (Corsica) WAR stats for '17-18:

OWAR:
Nylander......1.1
Pesce...........0.10
Manson.......0.15

DWAR:
Nylander....-0.13
Pesce...........0.39
Manson.......0.16

Total WAR:
Nylander....0.96
Pesce...........0.49
Manson.......0.31

Nylander is the most impactful despite his defensive quality being inferior to Manson and Pesce. This is unsurprising. I think you're still missing the point of pretty much every non-Leafs fan that is commenting on Nylander trades - TOR isn't getting fair value for him! Simple as that. Too much contract uncertainty and not enough reason for other teams to move a solid defenseman.

You and I both know that Nylander isn't getting traded, so maybe it's time to just let the rumors run their course (and for Dubas to sign the poor guy).
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 8, 2018 at 11:18 a.m.
Thread: Just because a defenseman shoots right does not make them a top pair defenceman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>He was one of several options I could have used. I figured he cause less hate to be thrown my way.

One thing though that never was answered in this entire post is this. If these type of defenseman that everyone wants to trade Nylander for are so valuable, why do they all make less than 4.5 million a year?

People will say Pesce is more valuable than Nylander and then pay Nylander 7 million plus while the other guy gets under 4.5 and that is a fair deal.

Offense is worth more than defence from a salary perspective and yet people are on here saying these guys are worth so much more in a trade. That doesn't make any sense.</div></div>

To answer that question you would have to look at some kind of WAR stat, or something that you can compare different player types/positions with. You also have to consider that some of these guys signed contracts before they really evolved into what they currently are. Nylander doesn't fit that mold after to 60+ pt seasons to begin his career. And like you said, offense is valued over everything else when determining a player's contract. It shouldn't sound outrageous that a d-man making less could be worth more than a forward making more.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 8, 2018 at 11:01 a.m.
Thread: Just because a defenseman shoots right does not make them a top pair defenceman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>That was a pretty impressive season he had, and you are right the trade I proposed wasn't at all fair. The point I am trying to make though is that, a defensive defenseman is not worth Nylander because offense is more valuable than anything else. All the arguments in the world get lost when you just look at what teams pay the most for. If defensive defenseman where worth the same as a player like Nylander, then Manson would be making 6.5 million a year.</div></div>

Why is Manson a defensive defenseman? Because he can play defense? He had the 3rd-most 5v5 pts among RD last year. I understand your argument about the age difference, but I think you're underestimating Manson here.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 8, 2018 at 10:41 a.m.
Thread: Just because a defenseman shoots right does not make them a top pair defenceman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>That was a pretty impressive season he had, and you are right the trade I proposed wasn't at all fair. The point I am trying to make though is that, a defensive defenseman is not worth Nylander because offense is more valuable than anything else. All the arguments in the world get lost when you just look at what teams pay the most for. If defensive defenseman where worth the same as a player like Nylander, then Manson would be making 6.5 million a year.</div></div>

You keep calling top 30 offensive rhd "defensive defensemen." I think if you target guys between 32 and 62 on that list, who aren't top tier offensive defensemen, you'll have very good luck in getting one of them for Nylander. I mean, you'd trade Zaitsev for Nylander, right?
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 8, 2018 at 10:23 a.m.
Thread: Just because a defenseman shoots right does not make them a top pair defenceman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Pittsburgh did it back to back, and before you say it, yes Pittsburgh had a better defense in year two than in year 1 but when Letang was hurt the Pens defence was paper thin, fortunately they had a team defence strategy that made them win.

Defence may win championships but one that that definitely doesn't win championships is teams that can't score. Look how amazing the Flames defence was supposed to be last season or Carolina's every year and yet they haven't been playoff teams.</div></div>

Pittsburgh also has 2 generational talents, Phil Kessel, a good coach, and good depth scoring. Thats why they were able to go back to back.