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thejayman

thejayman
Member Since
May 21, 2019
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Tampa Bay Lightning
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Forum: Tampa Bay LightningMay 24, 2022 at 9:53 a.m.
Thread: RFA dilemma
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Knuckl3s</b></div><div>Here is the thing though, you have to pay Sergachev premium dollars to keep him around long-term BEFORE Hedman and McDonagh's deals are up. Lightning may have no choice but to declare that the window ends when Hedman and McDonagh come off the books considering their cap situations. I too am a bit skeptical about Sergachev's ability to be a top-notch defenseman, but I think we'd all be very comfortable with him in an everyday 2nd pair role</div></div>

The ideal situation would be Sergachev taking the QO and "agreeing" to a big 8 year deal the next year when stamkos's current deal comes off. But even if he's not willing to do that, the numbers would work. Killorn coming off the books+cirelli sergachev and cernak's current deal frees up 17 million, which is likely more than would be necessary to keep 98 and 71 but not 81.
Forum: Tampa Bay LightningMay 23, 2022 at 12:07 p.m.
Thread: RFA dilemma
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>imawesome</b></div><div>I think (hope) they keep Cirelli and Cernak and trade Sergachev for a haul</div></div>

I totally get why people want to trade Sergachev but I really would be surprised if they do. If you look at where he fits in on the team's timeline, the fact that he hasn't been traded yet I think tells you that the plan is to keep him long-term for when Hedman and McDonagh age out of being able to carry the top 2 pairs.

The limited role he has been playing for the past few years is something they very easily could have replaced with an affordable vet, So, if they didn't plan to keep him for the long-term, they would've traded him years ago and they would have gotten an even bigger haul by trading him with more years of cost control and before his development seemingly plateaued.

I know he can be frustrating and I am skeptical that he can step up to be a high-end top 4 d, but there's just no other difference makers on D in the pipeline. If you get rid of him, you're basically saying that our window to win ends when Hedman and McDonagh regress, and they will be 33 and 34 next summer. Keeping Sergachev helps give you some chance to extend the window through Point's prime.

I think they end up doing everything they can to keep 98 and 71 and then replace everyone else they cant keep.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 21, 2019 at 12:16 p.m.
Thread: 2019-20 with Karlsson
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MichaelFu</b></div><div>As much as it’s interesting to see you Bolts fans get creative, moves like these just don’t seem realistic. Point for me is the best player on the Lightning, he drives the play on the top line and plays a complete 200 foot game. He has some good hands and high creativity, plus he’s very smart with his decision making and positioning. He has every right to demand up to 12 million AAV and given the rarity of bridge deals nowadays, it is highly unlikely he signs for only 6 million. As for Karlsson, he has established himself as the best puck moving defenseman of this last generation. He may be willing to take a paycut like Point, but not by such a small amount. I think that 9.5 million is the very least he’ll take.</div></div>

Yeah I was coming at it from the perspective that it's really unlikely, but I think this is essentially the only way it could happen.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 21, 2019 at 11:23 a.m.
Thread: 2019-20 with Karlsson
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Zwui21</b></div><div>Would love to see Point sign for that number (imagine how Toronto fans would get mental seeing that happen hahaha) but it's not gonna happen. For 3 years, the AAV is likely to be between the 7-8M ballpark IMO.

If Karlsson was to sign with Tampa, at least one - maybe even two - of Killorn/Johnson/Palat would have to waive his NTC this offseason already and be shipped, as <a href="/users/thejayman" target="_blank">@thejayman</a> said. + Gourde I'd say, as you don't want to be stuck with his NTC 5+M contract come July 1.
This is why EK to Tampa it is very unlikely to happen: it would be doable, but it's highly unlikely that all the puzzle pieces will fit together</div></div>

Yeah these numbers are pretty unlikely but its really the only way it could happen. I would be stunned if the Killorn, Palat, or Johnson waive this year, as theyve been key guys in Tampa throughout this era and presumably feel entitled to have the chance to avenge this year, which I don't blame them for at all.

But I have a sneaking suspicion that the Point AAV is gonna be lower than people are expecting. People talk about the tax advantage, which is of course true, but I think people underestimate how much players can view salaries relative to the other guys in the dressing room. I think that the fact that Kuch is making 9.5 is much more instructive for what the number will be for Point than whatever Marner or Rantanen or Aho makes. But of course we'll see and I would also love to see Point just get locked up long term and we work from there.