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tm0000

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Jul. 3, 2018
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New York Islanders
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Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 10:20 a.m.
Thread: Canesnot Necas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Billy316</b></div><div>Not that i agree with Value
Plus Romanov in many regards has declined since leaving MTL in most regards with exception to 8-9 points a season more</div></div>

Legitimately curious what you are basing that on. First - 8-9 points per season might not be a lot for a top-6 forward, but Romanov has gone from scoring 0.14 pts/game with Montreal to 0.28 with the Isles - literally doubling his scoring output. That's a pretty significant step towards being an all-around top-4 guy.

The team's 5v5 numbers with him have been excellent too - his two seasons with the Isles, New York's outscored the opposition 117-96 (the Habs were outscored 99-88 during his tenure in the same 5v5 situations.) He's committing less penalties, he's had less giveaways, and he's blocking shots at basically the same rate. I just don't know how you can look at what he's done the past 2 years in New York and argue that he's declined compared to his time in Montreal.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 5 at 12:21 a.m.
Thread: If Mayfield goes on LTIR
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jded</b></div><div>I know his linemates aren’t doing him any favors, but he starts half his shifts in the offensive zone and has like 6 points this year. And his advanced stats are horrendous</div></div>

When you start looking at his WOWY stats at 5v5, I feel like you can start seeing hope for him as an offensive force. Since the beginning of 2021-22, he's played almost identical amounts at 5v5 with Barzal as his center (539:49) and Pageau (519:27.) With Barzal, the Isles control 50.7% of the chances and have outscored their opponents 22-14; with Pageau he's down to 43.4% of the chances and only a 20-19 GF/GA. Numbers get worse when you look at the 100+ minutes he's inexplicably spent on Casey Cizikas' wing in that time.

It really comes down to not trying to fit his square peg into a round hole - if you accept the fact that he's going to occasionally have a defensive issue, I think you're gonna wind up with a very good offense-first winger.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 29 at 1:49 p.m.
Thread: Deadline Dealin
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>csick</b></div><div>Joseph is a lot better than both pieces coming back. I should show u the analytics for Pageau and Wahlstrom this year . They’re goddamn awful</div></div>

I don't love being a "blame the coach" kinda guy but JGP and Wahlstrom's numbers have been done in by some seriously questionable coaching decisions, which is why I think if they moved to another team they would see a bump up in their production - provided the next team doesn't make the same mistakes Lane Lambert (and, to an extent, Barry Trotz) made with these guys.

Wahlstrom is an offense-first player, always has and always will be. The problem is, he spends just as much time playing on defensive-minded lines as he has on offensive-minded ones - since the beginning of 2021-22, his time spent skating with Mat Barzal and JG Pageau at 5v5 is almost identical (539:49 vs. 519:27 in 139 GP - and, predictably, he does better with Barzal. Skating with Barzal, his possession numbers are more or less even and the team gets 61.1% of the goals scored; with Pageau, he gets about 43% of the chances and GF% is 51.2. They've really tried to take his square peg and put it in a round hole over and over again and wonder why he hasn't panned out. I also throw a little of the blame on Barry Trotz, because in Trotz's last year the team was wellll out of it by the end of the season - perfect time to give a young kid some run and let him develop. But for some reason, after going 10-9-19 in 13:23 per night through the all-star break that year, he then spent the last 33 games of the year getting only 10:27 per night in the bottom 6 and going 3-2-5 in that time. He's a perfect change of scenery candidate.

Pageau, meanwhile, is suffering from his reputation as a strong faceoff guy and awful deployment. Under Trotz, he averaged about a 44/56 o-zone/d-zone start split and his possession numbers were not great but livable (usually 47% CF). The last 2 years under Lambert he's seen his d-zone starts jump 63% and now 71% this year - combined with the neverending parade of defense injuries behind him, and I'd say it's a miracle he still kept his CF around 47% last year and not at all a surprise that he's down to 38% this year. There's definitely some decline happening in there, sure - but I think with more judicious usage you'll see him actually looking more like his old self again.

I think the trade is an interesting value - Wahlstrom has more upside than Kastelic so i'd say he's marginally more valuable; I think Joseph is more valuable than JGP which is why I threw retention in. I also think the fits work well for both teams - moving Joseph and presumably one of Tarasenko/Kubalik gives you the roster spots to give ice time to the bevy of young wingers in Belleville (and Wahlstrom), and Kastelic is redundant if you bring JGP in. Personally, I don't mind adding a modest sweetener to the Islanders side, whether in the form of more retention or another asset, but I think it's a deal that can benefit both teams this year and next.