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tp47
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Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 6 at 1:52 p.m.
Thread:
If Gourde were Available
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ArakinSkywalker</b></div><div>it's kind of a gamble really. Johansen is looking a little better with more consistent wingers lately and i feel he has the frame to be more of an effective player in playoffs. I don't know if the little bit of an upgrade between the two and 500k in cap space is worth adding in oskar and our first.</div></div>
Yeah, that's fair. I've been unimpressed with Johansen all year and am not sure about recent games. He had some good ones, but Bednar only played him 10:58 and 11:48 in the last two (vs. season avg of 13:38). He had large usage in Nashville playoffs (career avg. 19:14 mins), but only 16:54 and 2a when Colorado swept them in 21-22.
Gourde playoffs, for comparison. Some variance in points but certainly getting a lot of minutes.
19-20 (TBL): 25gp, 14p, 18:18
20-21 (TBL): 23gp, 7p, 17:35
22-23 (SEA): 14gp, 13p, 19:38
Not sure how much playoff TOI averages get skewed league-wide by multi-OT marathon games.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 6 at 1:29 p.m.
Thread:
If Gourde were Available
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xqb15a</b></div><div>Why even put Dreidger in the trade?</div></div>
1) Business side of it - eating ~$1M of Driedger's salary for the remainder of the 23-24 season may make Seattle more amenable to Gourde retention.
2) Maybe Colorado has more faith in Annunen now and doesn't want to target a true 1B, but they may still want some playoff depth in the extreme case of multiple injuries
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 6 at 1:26 p.m.
Thread:
If Gourde were Available
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ArakinSkywalker</b></div><div>Your explanation basically says gourde replacing johansen is a lateral move. Seems like we're just taking one declining player for another. Plus dreiger makes this a no go for me, we already have cap issues we don't have 2.3 for a goalie to play in the minors and 3.5 for a backup.</div></div>
Gourde is definitely better than Johansen and unlike Johansen, could (and does) play 2nd line minutes. He's playing 17:40 a night, compared to Johansen's 13:38. Also shooting at a career low 6.5%, so you'd expect some regression there too. What I meant in the description is that Gourde seems to be having a slightly down year (point wise), which could make Seattle more open to trading him.
Driedger fits into the cap space here, with a little room to spare. It's only for the remainder of this season and is to make the trade real $ positive for the Seattle side. It may not work if Colorado plans to target additional high cap hit player(s) this week, but it works in this scenario.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 21, 2021 at 11:21 p.m.
Thread:
Hamilton Test Doesnt Work
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xqb15a</b></div><div>Ranta isn’t ready. Realistically the only way to make Hamilton work is to move EJ.</div></div>
Probably right on the EJ part. Idk about Ranta. They were willing to put him into 2 Vegas games. Feel like he could easily get a lot of regular season time, unless they'd rather him getting more minutes in the AHL.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 6, 2020 at 4:50 p.m.
Thread:
22-23 Outlook Minor Changes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NMAvsFan</b></div><div>I go back and forth on Killorn - I hope Joe is considering him but also looks at every option available.
Only $30MM available the following year with 11 players signed. Just signed Mac so there's $12-13 mil out the door. Now I have $17-18MM to sign 9-10 more players (that's an average of $1.7-2MM per player). And I've got Makar to re-sign to an even bigger deal, hopefully long-term, in 2 years. Looks like giving 30 y/o Kadri a raise on a 4-year deal was maybe a mistake when I've got 20 y/o Newhook to play 2C on an entry level deal. Would be nice to have that $5MM. And that is a lot of money and term to give to Nuke. I guess the cap might have gone up a little at that point so maybe it can work but it's going to get hairy.</div></div>
Yeah the Kadri/Newhook situation was my #1 question I put in the description. Guess we'll see how well each of them play in the years before. I structured the Landy/Grub/Kadri/Nuke contracts like they all had no drop off (or further improved) over the next two seasons. Kadri would be 32 for the 22-23 season, so the contract is definitely on the high side. I think Nuke gets 2x1.5-2.5MM this offseason.
Think you missed LOC in your count - it's 12 players. And I believe Byram's contract would slide if he doesn't make the team this year, so that would make it 7-8 players to sign with $16-17MM. Still tight, but may be doable depending on ELCs. The big question is how much the cap will end up changing.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 6, 2020 at 3:20 p.m.
Thread:
22-23 Outlook Minor Changes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>coga16</b></div><div>DNVR just mentioned it on his podcast yesterday when someone asked about it, said he was fine and there is no issues</div></div>
That's good to know. So yeah, with that context, it's a big overpay. Hopefully he & Johnson can stay healthy.
Timmins could be swapped out for Jost or picks from Jost/Zadorov trades then.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 6, 2020 at 3:08 p.m.
Thread:
22-23 Outlook Minor Changes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>coga16</b></div><div>Timmins is fine, he didnt get a concussion in the playoffs. Its been confirmed by the all avs beat writers hes healthy and fine.
chances are he reaggravated the shoulder injury he had in the AHL this season.</div></div>
Where did you see that it's confirmed he didn't have a concussion? All I had seen was that Timmins' agent said "I just talked to Conor, and he told me he’s feeling much better". Even if he recovered quickly, it's not great if he's going to be concussion-prone for years. Colorado doesn't need more years ravaged by injuries.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 6, 2020 at 2:57 p.m.
Thread:
22-23 Outlook Minor Changes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>coga16</b></div><div>thats a massive over pay for kilorn</div></div>
I would've agreed until Timmins got hurt again after 1.5 playoff games. I do think it's an overpay, but don't think it's massive anymore.
Timmins' concussion history makes me nervous. He's certainly NHL-ready, but he's only played 4 NHL games. Killorn has rarely been injured throughout his career, is a proven mid-6 winger and is on a solid contract for a few more years.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 21, 2020 at 3:47 p.m.
Thread:
SoCal Avalanche
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>McRanteskog</b></div><div>Hall may not cost assets but a bloated contract is just as bad.
No way hes looking for a short term or bridge deal either.
He doesnt fit the mold in COL, hes too one dimensional (link below shows offensive chances against while on the ice):
<a href="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWi/1920/ARI/hallxta91/wrap" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWi/1920/ARI/hallxta91/wrap</a>
As for Nichushkin, his strength is his speed, size and defensively responsibly.
When you play an ARI team that produces no offense, your defensive upside, doesnt get displayed</div></div>
I wouldn't consider 3 year x $8M to be that bloated. He's an excellent player, it's not like signing Marleau. <strong>If</strong> he does want a long-term deal, I wouldn't touch him if I were Colorado. But I don't think anyone can say with certainty what players/teams are going to do this offseason with the unexpected flat cap.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 21, 2020 at 3:24 p.m.
Thread:
SoCal Avalanche
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>McRanteskog</b></div><div>You underpaid Burakovsky, Graves and Nichushkin all exactly 1 mil each.
I’m out on Hall. After seeing the tire fire he was this playoff series, count me out (especially at 8mil price tag)</div></div>
I'd still take Hall. I think calling him a tire fire is selling him short. Sure, he only had 2 points (4 vs NSH) but Arizona in general was very outmatched by Colorado. It's easier to double-team Hall & shut him down because who are you leaving open? There aren't many threats on that team.
I'd love to take Hall in a 3 year deal if possible, which I think makes a lot of sense on both sides. For Colorado, they get an elite top-line winger that can keep up with MacK and his contract would expire with MacK's. For Hall, he gets a chance on a contender and he gets to pad his stats for 3 years playing with MacK during the flat cap. He'd be 31 signing his final contract and it'd coincide with the cap going up because Seattle/post-pandemic/TV deal. The other great thing about taking Hall is <strong>you give up 0 assets for him</strong>.
Also, I feel like Nichushkin has been relatively invisible during the playoffs. I guess it's good I don't remember defensive issues, but still 0 points and I only remember him drawing one penalty. He's underpaid in this AGM, but don't think he's been helping his contract.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 17, 2020 at 5:19 p.m.
Thread:
Keep it Simple Killorn Version
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>I see.
Well then would you move Beaucage+2nd for Killorn? Considering that COL picks are low by default, I think TB would be more interested in a little bit more valuable prospect...</div></div>
I would do Beaucage + 2nd, but I can't say I keep up with prospects that much. Colorado has a prime 3-year window before MacK gets a new contract, and should try to take advantage of that over a prospect/pick that probably won't have much impact until after that window.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 17, 2020 at 5:07 p.m.
Thread:
Keep it Simple Killorn Version
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>Hard to say since we don't know which teams are on his list, but I can think of 5-10 teams that would offer at least 2nd and 3rd rounders for the guy.
I mean even Justin Braun got that kind of return...</div></div>
That's fair. The change from 2nd/4th to 2nd/3rd is the type of non-major jump that I was talking about. I'd guess Sakic would be slow to trade an active roster player like Jost though, unless he's planning to bring in other low-cost UFAs (like re-signing Nieto). Not sure that Kaut/Bowers are ready for full time duties.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 17, 2020 at 4:49 p.m.
Thread:
Keep it Simple Killorn Version
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>I could technically see them wanting that COL 1st, provided it's either the 30th or the 31st pick. They're lacking a first for this year after all.
If that's too much. I believe Jost+2021 2nd to be enough. After all they need to replace Killer with someone and Jost as a young forward could be used in this position.</div></div>
Idk if Sakic would be open to trading a late 1st or Jost. I feel like Jost + 2nd is too much though.
I could see more being added/replaced with the 2nd/4th, but not move the needle a lot. There's only 14 teams that can trade for Killorn. Out of those, how many need him, have the cap space for him, and will outbid this?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 17, 2020 at 4:29 p.m.
Thread:
Keep it Simple Killorn Version
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SweetRevenge19</b></div><div>Somebody’s gonna have to be the odd man out in TB</div></div>
Yeah. And Palat/Gourde/Johnson all have full NTCs for this offseason... So there goes Killorn.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 17, 2020 at 4:26 p.m.
Thread:
Keep it Simple Killorn Version
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>So basically you traded Zadorov for Killorn.
Imo that's bad for TB. Killorn holds more value for them.</div></div>
I think Killorn may have slightly more value than a 2nd and 4th, but they're going to have to get rid of some piece(s) for cap space. Don't they have like $5.3M in projected room right now with 10F/3D signed? How much does it take to sign Cirelli/Sergachev/Cernak/+++?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 17, 2020 at 1:07 p.m.
Thread:
What Avs Can Do this Offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>coga16</b></div><div>I just tried to be conservative with numbers and added a little extra on some guys just so worse case scenerio that even overspending a bit they still are within cap
compliance. Like I gave TImmins a healthy raise bc...who knows?</div></div>
To this point, I feel like Timmins is the one player you undersold the worst (best?) case scenario. Assuming 2 great years, we're prepped to give Makar $9M. But if Timmins has 1 solid year, he only gets a $200k raise? Absolutely nitpicking cause it all evens out but think he could be up to 2x$2M. Excited to see him play more.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 17, 2020 at 12:57 p.m.
Thread:
What Avs Can Do this Offseason
So I agree that $6.5M would be around the *absolute* safe number for a UFA winger, but I think it'd be worth the risk going into the $8-8.5M range for Hall. Also, it looks like you have Donskoi getting taken by Seattle here. Personally, I'd take Compher/Graves/Francouz over Donskoi. Then if Hall was actually taken (and Makar/Landy/Grub got these max raises), Donskoi would probably get traded.
Also - I'd think Bowers would be in the roster at this point. Maybe over O'Connor?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 17, 2020 at 12:36 p.m.
Thread:
Keep it Simple Hall-elujah
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>coga16</b></div><div>He did pitch for Panarin, but if he landed him he wouldnt have signed Donskoi, Wilson, maybe doestn do the Kadri trade bc that was completed after Panarin signed with the Rangers.
Avs will lose money in the expansion draft, someone like Compher, Donskoi, or Graves could be picked which isnt the end of the world when you have Kaut Newhook Timmins and Byram on ELCs to slide into their place.
Real question is in net. They wont extend Grubi this offseason, will let that play out letting him play on the last year of his deal. Eventually they will have spend some money on a goalie, who that is no clue so need to ensure they have a little cap space to do that</div></div>
Yeah I think the same thing as Panarin would happen here. If you don't get Hall, you pick up a second line winger. If we do get Hall, you backpedal a bit and get rid of someone you wouldn't have originally signed (Donskoi, after this year). + like you mentioned, drop some more $ in the expansion draft.
Agreed on letting Grubauer play out the year before re-signing. Unless something drastic happens, I don't see him or Landeskog getting more than $1-2M raises each. Makar is more of the wildcard for me - he could be anywhere in $6-9M imo. Does he end up having a monster year and get a longer big contract, or does he regress/plateau at all and end up getting a 3-yr bridge deal like Werenski (with more $)?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 17, 2020 at 12:22 p.m.
Thread:
Keep it Simple Hall-elujah
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>coga16</b></div><div>They can spend around 6.5m in ufa with a flat cap and still afford makar and Landy extensions. So 8.5m will pinch out nichushkin and make the goalie situation even more difficult. Is doable for hall but it creates a squeeze a year to soon</div></div>
Yeah, it's tight but doable. I think Donskoi would get moved before Nichushkin though. My thought was that if Sakic was willing to make pushes for Panarin last year, I don't know why he wouldn't want to go for Hall at cheaper.
I really don't know how free agency is going to play out with the flat cap that teams have not been planning for over the past few years.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 5, 2019 at 12:07 p.m.
Thread:
Tampa Bay Lightning signed Kevin Shattenkirk (1 Year / $1,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeastModeUnknown</b></div><div><strong>LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO......no team is gonna take him unless you give up great prospects. </strong>And considering he has a 4.45M if you sign point its going to be 9+M which you won't have to sign Sergachev next year. </div></div>
If Killorn gets traded after this year, he'll be 31-33 years old for the last 3 years of his contract. He's put up 36-47 points in each of the last 6 seasons, has only missed 2 games in the past 4 seasons, and plays the PK.
He might not fit into TBL's future, but he's certainly not a massive anchor like Lucic. Teams will gladly take him, but just won't have to pay much to get him.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 31, 2019 at 2:29 p.m.
Thread:
Colorado Avalanche signed Samuel Girard (7 Years / $5,000,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>vmark</b></div><div>Yea but now duchene signed with a division rival.
Whatre the chances he swings a playoff series between those teams.. could be multiple times in the next 3 years
If they had prioritized signing him maybe they actually win a cup earlier in their window.
Could go the other way, and maybe he never signs there, but lets not kid ourselves: matt duchene is one helluva player who could potentially win some hardware of his own.
Johansen duchene turris bonino is best center depth in the league, imagine if turris wakes up this year.
Edit: overall good deal tho if he doesn't fall off a cliff production wise, does really depend on his increased production; if he stagnates or gets worse this deal blows chunks but the odds of that are lower than him improving... prolly</div></div>
Sure, having a great player like Duchene go to a division rival hurts, but that's not something you'd expect at the time of the trade. Ottawa had just come off a strong year, had no true 1C and is close to his hometown, so it seemed like a good fit for him. And most importantly, Duchene requested a trade because he felt Colorado was going to be rebuilding again and didn't want to be a part of it. So it's not like Sakic "didn't prioritize signing him".
I don't think Colorado would be closer to winning if Duchene had stayed around. Sure, he's better than any Colorado center besides MacKinnon. But Colorado had absolutely no strength/solid prospects in their LHD. Who was there? Zadorov, Beauchemin, Nemeth, Barberio, Lindholm, Gelinas? Getting monster upgrades in Girard and Byram will help Colorado much more, as they have decent Duchene replacements in Kadri, Jost, Compher, Newhook.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 31, 2019 at 12:10 p.m.
Thread:
Colorado Avalanche signed Samuel Girard (7 Years / $5,000,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hurricanes73</b></div><div>just another amazing part of that 3 way deal that colorado clearly won</div></div>
I believe this is the current status of that trade for Colorado - really embracing the youth movement.
<strong>Gave up:</strong>
- Matt Duchene (28 yo, C)
<strong>Received (signed):</strong>
- Bowen Byram (18 yo, LHD)
- Sam Girard (21 yo, LHD)
- Vladislav Kamenev (22 yo, C)
- Shane Bowers (20 yo, C)
<strong>Received (unsigned):</strong>
- Justus Annunen (19 yo, G)
- Danila Zhuravlyov (19 yo, LHD)
- Matthew Stienburg (18 yo, C)
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 7, 2018 at 12:22 p.m.
Thread:
Dynasty
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>Yeah, but i think they are going to re-sign Duchene and or Stone. Hard to see both of them leaving plus Dzingel, but if they come out and say we are rebuilding then it's a whole new world.</div></div>
Speaking of Duchene though, he may be out long-term. He and Ryan both got injured in last night's game. So, like <a href="/users/JeffW" target="_blank">@JeffW</a> said, plenty of time to implode (even if they don't trade Duchene and/or Stone, which I think they'll do for at least 1).
<a href="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nhl/2980/matt-duchene" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nhl/2980/matt-duchene</a>
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 13, 2018 at 9:48 a.m.
Thread:
Post trade deadline
Sakic did great with the Duchene trade, but turning waiver pickups into 2nd and 4th round picks is unlikely. I doubt you could get something more than a 5th-7th pick for these guys (or maybe conditions depending on games played/playoff success). Andrighetto has hardly played because he's always injured, and hasn't done much when he's in the lineup. I think it makes sense to move these guys (or Nieto/Barberio) as the season goes on though.
Also, "arguably the best 1-6 defense in the league" is a stretch to me. It's definitely much improved over the past few years, and should be fun to watch once Makar and Timmins crack the lineup.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 6, 2018 at 10:41 a.m.
Thread:
Barrie to Tampa Bay
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rtapp326</b></div><div>Look at the forwards on the way vs the defensemen on the way for Colorado. Makar will be in the NHL by the end of the season, and will force out Barrie this summer. The Avalanche need secondary scoring at forward, and you can’t bank on draft picks or free agent signings.</div></div>
Here was my thought on trading Barrie to TBL:
<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/907827">https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/907827</a>
Gourde/Miller would probably be the easiest targets because they don't have NTCs yet. Johnson/Killorn would be the ones I think TBL would want to move, but they may not waive NTCs. And then TBL would obviously want to unload Callahan somewhere before next year, which should be doable with a 16 team trade list.
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