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tweaky

Tweaky
Member Since
Mar. 18, 2016
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Colorado Avalanche
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Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 9 at 9:12 a.m.
Thread: Hmmm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheeDjeeEem</b></div><div>Wow, so confident yet so full of :sarcasm ...typical

You do know teams can spend 10% over the cap :scream in the off season including LTIR? :awesome That's plenty of room to sign Mits even IF he performs well and deal RyJo for a future 2nd if needed

Mits played most of his 5v5 with Skinner and Tuch and played top PP mins with Tage, lots of 40 goal scorers there... when was the last time Nichuskin and Lehkonen scored 40? 30?

And Rantanen plays 90% of all TOI with MacKinnon so try again

Sakic is a good GM, but he bungled up this TDL bad, guess we'll have to see</div></div>

Once they ship Byram off, they needed a D to fill in that spot, else they are rolling AHL D every day (Jones, Malinsky, Hunt, etc.) even with JMFJ in the top 6. So they needed Walker. But Walker is not worth a 1st or 2nd round pick on his own, Philly likely wanted more than a 4th...Avs have no 3rds. So they figure a way to make Walker worth the first Philly was coveting ...by sending a massively overpaid floater and getting a 5th back.

And comparing Walker to Peeke is absurd...Walker is a full time NHL player, Peeke is not this season...healthy scratch for 40+ games. Walker averages 19.5 minutes a game, Peeke just 15.6. Walker averaged 2.2 minutes a game on the PK and gave up 7 goals in 64 games. Walker averaged 1.5 minutes per game on the PK and gave up 7 goals...in 23 games.

Avs also likely had other deals in discussion, which may have required the cap space, but that is just speculation. But hell, if they had kept RyJo, waived him and sent him down...they would be over the cap....his buried cap hit is still $2.85M, Avs only have $2.1M in cap space as of right now.

And the final point I would like to make, concerning Mittlestadt. He was leading the Sabres in scoring. Meaning he was outscoring those "40 goal scorers." This year. I don't care that Skinner scored 40 once in his career, over half a decade ago. Which now that I look, Tuch never has. Tage also has one 40+ goal season, and at least it was last year...but this year he is the lowest scoring of the three. Lehkonen is scoring at a better pace than any of them. Nichushkin is over PPG this season. Val has more goals and points than Skinner (the best of the BUF 3 this year), despite playing 15 fewer games. Casey also now gets to share the ice with the (arguably) best D pair in hockey, play on the PP with the league leading scorer (plus Mikko, Makar, etc.), and if Landeskog comes back for the playoffs, will likely have him on the wing.

And a nitpick....Mikko has played 86.5% of his ice time with MacKinnon this year, all situations. 5v5, it drops all the way to 84.8%. :D
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 6, 2020 at 6:07 a.m.
Thread: How to build a dynasty starting next year
That is probably about right for the price on Barkov. Though as an Avs fan, I would have trouble paying it...visions of the defense with Byram, Makar, Girard and Timmins for a decade...must clean up now. But for those thinking it is too much...how much do you think it would have been worth to trade for Patrice Bergeron 10 years ago? That is the player we are talking about, and he is on a cheaper contract than even MacKinnon.

I am not a bug Nurse fan, but I could see that one working.

The Lehner signing is fine...no clue if he would take it, but he will be worth close to that as an UFA.

Price for Lebanc might be a bit steep. A starting G and a middle/bottom 6 F, plus a pick swap, for a middle/top 6 F. Jost is not that far behind where Lebanc was at the same point in development, and adding that much to him is an overpay.

Biggest problem I have is the liquidation of the forward depth. Losing Jost, JTC, Nuke, Calvert and PEB, plus Newhook and a couple 1sts from the pool, would hurt. Even here, we have Greer and Kamenev in the top 12. Greer has never shown anything in his NHL games, and Kamenev as been shaky this year. I no longer have confidence in either becoming quality full time NHL players. Keeping Calvert and PEB would help with that. But as they are older, then the pool depth comes into play, and while I like the potential of prospects like Ranta, etc, banking on non-top 10 picks by the Avs is risky.

Overall, decent ideas, but I would not like it.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 9, 2019 at 12:39 p.m.
Thread: My view of realistic hall trade
Byram may be the ask, but no other team has a D prospect on that level that is at all available (or should be, looking at you EDM). No other Western team even has a D prospect on the same level as Timmins that is in a position to be moved. That is the bar that Sakic has to beat with his offer. What is the best package the competition can put together, when a top D prospect is a requirement? Arizona has Soderstrom, but their pipeline is thin on D, so not likely to give up their best. Calgary has a decent top 8, but nothing of note in the system after that....and Gio is getting old. Dallas has Harley, but very unlikely they are willing to give him up given their lack of D depth. Edmonton absolutely cannot afford to give up any D prospects, so Broberg and Bouchard are off the table. Minnesota does not have any D prospects even close to the level we are discussing. Surprisingly, neither does Nashville. SJS has Markley and Knyazev, but again...not enough depth at D to give them up (after their top 3/4 it drops off quick). STL has the depth, but no good D prospect. VGK is not going to make the same mistake twice....they cannot afford to give up their top D prospect two years in a row. VAN does nto have the depth or the prospects. As for WPG, Heinola might qualify, but they are gong to need a Buff replacement....soon. And LAK, ANA and CHI are all non-starters for Hall, IMO
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 18, 2019 at 3:35 a.m.
Thread: Hall
From an Avs fan: No.

Not giving up a first AND Newhook for Hall. Don't need the retention, so save one of those (I prefer to keep Newhook). Not sure Chooch and Lewis plus a first is enough for Hall, but I would try it...if Nichushkin ever finds twine again, he will (lowercase) explode. His play has been great....just can buy a goal. Lewis is a decent throw in, but not sure how much value he really has, so upgrade him to any of our B prospects.

Compher is worth much more than 4th, and he brings a lot to the team, keep him. Scratch Wilson and keep Compher as 3C. Also, fair chance PEB stays as 4C and Jost is the other F scratch.

No interest in Martinez...no need to bring what would be the oldest guy on the squad. Toffoli would be good, though. Same price, just take AM out. Graves as 3rd pairing D, Barbs stays as scratch.

Correction, Miller would be the oldest guy on the team, and I don't think he is needed either. Francouz will be fine.

So, with my changes, cap hit math: $4.065M (-$2M removing Hall retention) + (-$3.5M keeping Compher) + (+$2M dropping Martinez) + (+$1.125M dropping MIller) + (-$950k keeping Frank as backup). 4.065-2-3.5+2+1.125-.95=.675. Works out to $740K in cap space remaining. No geriatrics,

If you really want to bring in old RD Martinez do a trade straight up for Cole, and have Graves play on his natural (L) side with him. But then you still have Martinez playing on his off side. Salary is about even too.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 12, 2019 at 3:43 p.m.
Thread: CUP WINNING AVS
1. Landy is fine how he is. He was not faster his rookie year, he just played a lot more recklessly...and it took a toll on his body. That is why he is not the full-on Viking all the time now.
2. Kaut and Bowers need to season a bit more int he AHL. Kamenev owns a spot if he stays healthy.
3. You are not wrong. That dirty hit from Eichel messed him up. If he does not recover, they need to LTIR him if at all possible. (I doubt it)
4. The JTC one I see as OK, maybe a bit high.
5. Not sure how much a selling point that really is for younger players.

The things that stick out for me.
The trade is pointless. We have plenty of small young D. Moving forward, I want guys that can play both ways, or at least not be a liability in front of Gru. I am fine with losing Barbs though. And getting a younger version is better, so I get it....just not the type I would prefer at this point.
All the external UFA contracts are low. Like Very low. I am good with going after each of them, but I am not sure all 3 are feasible.
Mikko might cost more than that.
On second thought, JTC and Kerfoot should be paid less....$3M each. Maybe $3.25M. But using Kerfoot as bait would be OK too.
Not sure Lindholm sticks around. He is clearly not NHL caliber, and I think he would rather play at home if he isn't making NHL money.
Timmins may have to spend the year with the Eagles, so signing Graves is good.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 12, 2019 at 3:23 p.m.
Thread: COLO
For the OP:
Overpay for Gus, IMO. And I might prefer other options, but this is your mock :)
Maybe a bit under for Jimothy and Peacock.
No to McElhinney, esp for a contract that pays him until he is 40. Just roll with Frank.
Kaut likely needs another year with the Eagles, so plug that spot with Kamenev if he can stay healthy.
The 7th D ought to be TImmins if healthy, otherwise Graves. and Meloche after that. Barbs is done IMO. At least until (if) Barrie is traded and injuries hit.
Do not bring back Brassard, please. A couple decent games against SJS does not wipe the stink of 4 goals and 0 assists and shoddy defensive play in the 25+ games before that. Use that money for a stud 4C that is not going to need legacy pay for what he did years ago.

<a href="/users/JohnC" target="_blank">@JohnC</a>
He may have left Timmins off due to uncertainty in his health...though I agree he should be in if able.
I can see the logic of keeping Kaut and Bowers with the Eagles for a year to develop with big minutes, rather than healthy scratches and 4th line seconds with the big club. The one I might put ahead of them is Greer.
Concerning Kerfoot vs Compher, yes JTC is more physical, and I agree that he should be on the 4th line ahead of Kerfoot, but some facts: AK13 put up 42 points in 78 games, JTC 32 in 66....Kerfoot scored more AND paced higher. For face-offs, Kerfoot went 274-215, Compher 301-311...Kerfoot had a higher win%. Maybe you were thinking of Jost? Either way, I think Jost and JTC should be together, as they have shown chemsitry. Kerfoot is optional at this point IMO.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 5, 2019 at 11:39 a.m.
Thread: Wont happen
Cap space in future years would be hell for sure. But trading Barrie for an ELC/pick would help. And Makar will be on an ELC for the next 3 years, not a $5M contract until that is over. But Hughes, Kakko and Makar all coming due at the same time would be scary. Relief comes from Hayes and Ferland being gone when MacK needs his raise. Landy will be due one the year before the kids, though.

Kerfoot is qualified and traded for a pick I guess...I like him but he would have no role on this roster. Just did not bother doing the sign and trade as I am not sure who would give up what for him.

There is cap space left for 19/20, so raises for any of the guys above what I listed is possible.

Most UFA signings entail regret, some sooner, some later. This is what I figured it would take to get Hayes on a 4 year deal.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 15, 2018 at 11:13 p.m.
Thread: Trade Miko? Feedback requested
Not a chance. If you want to ask for a top 5 in the NHL RW who is still on an ELC, you are going to have to pony up a real offer. Skinner is fine and all, but will be asking for UFA money for that extension, on a contract that will take him into the declining years. Fleury is a no go, as he has shown zero payoff on his considerable upside so far. Hanifin would work. Gauthier is a decent add on, but at this point, his AHL production is worrisome. The first is good.
And considering that you are also asking for a legit #1 goalie with not even a goalie prospect coming back (Avs system is rather short of G), plus a 2nd round pick...
So Skinner, Hanifin, Gauthier and a 1st. Seems like more than the Canes would want to pay (and I don't blame them), but not sure you can argue the Avs should take less. Maybe leave out Gauthier.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 3, 2018 at 1:40 p.m.
Thread: Joe Sakic Gets Horny and uses his absurd cap space for a cup run
Makar has already said he is returning to UMass for next season. Unless the signing is just meant for the playoff run.

OEL for presumably pick #31 if they do win the cup, and Kamenev, is a bit cheap. Lindholm and Warsofsky are spare parts with little value in a trade like this. Probably have to use this years 1st, or the OTT 2019 1st. Or maybe add a second either year to the trade as shown.

Tavares may cost more, but there is room for it.

I might consider buying out Wilson as well, and trying for JVR as well, possibly in place of Grabner or Comeau.

Hmm, add $1.5M to JT, drop $2.1M for Grabner/Comeau, save $2.667M on Wilson buyout, add $6M for JVR, $741K for Greer to replace Wilson, for a total of $3.474M more against the cap, well within the $4.858M space as listed. Following year might be rough with Rantanen and Zadorov and others needing new contracts....but allowing OEL and Varly to walk would help on that front. (my guess is the 2019-20 RFAs will cost about $19M total)
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 1, 2018 at 8:40 p.m.
Thread: Looking forward to next year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TJTwolf</b></div><div>Yes I am well aware of the tabs. Nice attempt but......you're saying that Kamenev has to prove he can stick etc, then taking your basis for Kerfoot, Compher and Andrighetto on this year's stats. Nobody knows what they will do next year, whether sophomore slump or carry on in an upward trajectory. 9.4 mil does indeed include current salary which is what they would be being paid the following season. Your calculations fail to factor in the other signings and re-signings above. The Avs would need to be signing Rantanen, Zadorov, <strong>Toninato</strong>, Kerfoot, Andrighetto, Compher, Varlamov, <strong>Lindholm</strong>, <strong>Greer</strong>, <strong>Nantel</strong>, <strong>Agozzino </strong>&amp; <strong>Warsofsky </strong>(assuming they chose to re-sign them all). Your assumption is also that it climbs again by 5 mil for the next year thus giving 14.4 of extra space. Let's say for argument's sake that Rantanen only gets a raise of 5 to give 6 and Zadorov a raise of 2, there's 7 before we start. Varly you have to guess is going to take at least a raise of 2 if he's still around so that's 9. That leaves us 5.4 and a question of who we consider likely to still be around and on the main roster. 'Kerfoot might deserve more depending how he does next year'......for 'might' read 'will' if he maintains production let alone increases. I fail to make any sense of your argument regarding Compher &amp; Andrighetto. You're likely looking at a 2 mil raise minimum per player in the case of Kerfoot and Compher (avg across the two). That leaves 1.4 to give Sven and Kamenev a raise. You might just about squeak in tight to the cap.</div></div>

I get it now. You are just going off everyone getting huge raises over their current salaries, and are only counting the raises against that $9.4M figure. Few issues with that. But before I get to that, the $5M raise for next year (2018-19) is coming from reports from Bettman that he expects it to go to $78-82M next year...I split the difference (and the OP did not feel the need to put that in for his mock). And then the following year, I figured another $1M to $5M based on averages ($1M brings the average for the two "guesses" in line with the dollar figure for average increases since the cap went into effect; $5M is the increase is we go by the average percentage increase year to year). But on to the issues:

First, huge raises like $2M per year for guys coming off ELC are not that common. Case in point...Sven Andrighetto. The final year of his ELC, he scored 24 points in 46 NHL games. That earned him $1.4M per for two years. Compher just scored 23 points in 69 NHL games as a 23yo...so a lower rate. (Sven scored 17pts in 44gms at 23yo for comparison). But I am giving JTC the benefit of the doubt that he will close that gap next year...so he gets $1.5M, just like Sven for that next contract. And that is what I mean by them being comparable. The produce at similar rates, therefore the contracts should be similar.

Kamenev has not done squat yet, so we cannot assume anything until he does. He got hurt in his first game, crap luck. But once he came back, he could not crack the lineup over Toninato or Bourque. So unless he goes beast mode this offseason to be able to tear it up next year, then he is not getting a raise over the minimum (which will put him at $1M). I like him, and I expect him to do well, but if he were to sign his extension on July 1st 2018 as soon as he is eligible, it would be for the minimum amount. But I grouped him in that set of 4 players who would <em>average </em>$1.5M each...so $6M total.

So if Kamenev is only getting $1M, along with $1.5M each for Sven and JTC, that leaves $2M for Kerfoot to come out to the average I suggested. Which is not that unreasonable for a one dimensional forward that scores roughly 0.5PPG coming off an ELC. Might be a bit low, so figure $2.5M. And it turns out, I should have taken the time in my initial post to lay out specific salaries for each of them.

Personally, I think he has overpaid Bourque, as well as Perron, but meh.

Varly is not getting a raise. he is a league average starter, with serious injury issues. I figure he gets $5.5M for a couple years on his next contract. And Bernier is another one getting overpaid.

Also, I bolded players you are listing as needing contracts. And you are correct. But unless they are on the Avs active roster, their salaries will not count against the cap....and none of them will be making more than can be buried.

I have created an Avs mock for 2019-20, using all the figures discussed above. Using a $80M cap, and not bringing in any new ELCs (though in reality, there will be one or two...Greer and Makar, maybe Bowers, etc.) I come up with a 23 player roster, and roughly $2.1M in cap space. <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/677623">https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/677623</a>