Jul. 28, 2019
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PurpleHippo</b></div><div>1. Why are we trading Samorukov for a 4th? He's developing into a 7th Dman for us and is likely going to sign another 2-way with us for cheap (league min or slightly above I'd assume).
2. Chicago will want more, Kane probably wont return what most people say but they aren't going to take scraps either. I'd assume both Pulji and Bourgault with a 2023 1st, Chicago sends their 2023 3rd to the team retaining the other 50% (2,625,000 to ARI in this example) to make a 3 way deal (but tbh would rather just keep the assets, regardless how amazing Kane-McD-Kane would be).
3. We'd have to pay to move Foegele, he's a good player and 2.75 is decent for him but be real... no one is gunna help a team in our position. Likely we either get lucky with a Foegele for FC or we give up a 3rd to move him... if we get an asset back it would be somewhat a miracle.
Edit - just noticed the "TDL" in the header, posted this assuming it was done before game 1 of 22-23.</div></div>
At the expense of Foegele, they clarified that this is TDL. I think based on Holland's vision, he plans to field 21 players on Opening Day with Hollowey and Broberg in order to ease the pressure on the cap with the bonuses that these two rely on. Next, Broberg will continue to play Barry in the third pair, and Holloway will go to the AHL to play in the top 6 Condors, because Holland said that he does not want to see Holloway get 7 minutes a night, it will be more useful for him to play 20+ at this age minutes per night, and play on special teams in the Condors.
I think in order to solve the problem with the cap throughout the season, Holland will resort to LTIR, he will alternately place players with medium contracts for a month in LTIR, and in their place will call several players with cheap contracts from the AHL. And closer to the deadline, the teams will become more accommodating and Holland will change Foegele for a decent price. And put Holloway in his place. That's Holland's plan, I think.
I agree about Kane, if the package I propose does not satisfy the fans of Chicago, then I think it's better for us to stay with our assets. Holloway, Broberg, Borgault are not touchable assets, this is the future of our club, giving them away for a loan, even if it is an amazing player, is detrimental, especially since we already have a furious attack. Only I did not understand who you consider leftovers? Petrov or Tullio, for me, chic avenues. To tell the truth, I don’t want to give away Petrov at all, I’m sure this is a top 6 guy, he will still make some noise in the league.
At the expense of Samorukov. I was also sure that he would be the seventh defender. But after the acquisition of Murray, I realized that Holland was not sure about this. At the end of the camp, it became obvious that Holland would not send Murray to the AHL and that he would be the seventh defender. It is also obvious that Niemelainen outplayed Samorukov, but Niemelainen will go to the AHL for now, because he is exempt from refusals, but will be the first of the defenders who will be called up to the main team if necessary. Therefore, I change Samorukov for some asset, so as not to lose him on failures for free. As unfortunate as it may be, but such is the situation, I would also like to leave him, I think he has just begun to develop, he will be a good defender. But Holland opted for an experienced defender. And in this situation, the exchange of Samorukov is the lesser of two evils.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PhilsWeiner</b></div><div>chicago is very well in a position to dictate terms. If teams want one of the best wingers in the league at 5m for a playoff run they will most definitely need to pay top dollar to get him. If the trade was this easy, they would have done it already.
Plus, they don't HAVE to trade Kane. It's not like he wants to leave Chicago either + they'll be a lottery team either way. The list of teams is limited, yes, but it will be a contender regardless. Even then, what makes you think he waives and willingly goes to Edmonton of all places? Even with Mcdavid, I don't think he'd want to go to canada.
It will very much take broberg or holloway to get this trade done (if it happens). if EDM is uninterested in moving these assets, they will not get kane. your C-B tier prospects are not going to cut it.</div></div>
My final offer is Pulujärvi + 1st 2023 + 1st 2024*(if the Oilers win the cup) + Petrov
Chicago can't dictate terms. The proposal of other teams is unlikely to be much better. The main thing in this deal is Kane's consent, this is important.
They didn't make the deal because Kane doesn't want to leave Chicago now, he wants to see as the season goes on which challenger team is best for him.
I think Canada is not a reducing factor, for the sake of the cup he will look at the real prospects of the team in the playoffs and the quality of the infrastructure of the challenger team, and will pay attention to the geographic location of the team as a last resort. It will not be a revelation that the Oilers have one of the best and most comfortable palaces in the league - this is also an important factor. And since there are fewer contenders for the cup in the west than in the east, the prospects for Edmonton are higher, this is also an important factor.
I don’t think that Kane wants to move to conditional Tampa or Carolina and fly out in the first round from, for example, Florida or Boston.
Chicago can't help but trade Kane. Kane himself wants to compete for the cup this year. Chicago is also interested in trading Kane, otherwise they risk getting nothing from Kane, who in the summer will go to the conditional Rangers for free to play with his sidekick Panarin.
And Petrov Prospect A level, it's a fact, in terms of potential it is no less than Andrei Svechnikov.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>I understand not wanting to lose Samorukov to waivers, but I think the cap issue is far more pressing for Holland. Besides, we know the club is high on Niemelainen, and he doesn't require waivers - so if they lost Samorukov it wouldn't be the end of the world.
I think Broberg stays and one of Murray & Samorukov hit waivers. Camp will decide which.</div></div>
I agree. In the first two games, in general, you understand who is who.
Since we are talking about the left edge of the defense. Overview of left backs.
Fist is top4.
Murray is an experienced, calm, potential third pair of defense, but according to the experience of previous years, he is highly traumatic.
Samorukov is generally a capable defender. At the moment, the seventh defender.
Broberg is a great figure skater, a combinator, at the moment he is not quick in defense, he is losing his position, this shortcoming must be corrected. At the moment, the potential of the third pair. Two years later, a top 4 defender.
Niemelainen is a great power defender. In two preseason games, he was a dominant defenseman. When he was on the ice, silence immediately set in on defense, he confidently cleaned up all the dangers. He is already better than Samorukov, Murray. At the moment, he could easily play in the third pair, but given the opportunity to lower him this season without refusal, he will spend most of the season in the AHL. In terms of potential, Broberg is higher than Niemelainen, but Niemelainen, in principle, is already a ready-made chic defender of the third pair, who in another team, where there is no Ners and Broberg in front of him, could easily play in the second pair.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>TL;DR
"Why are you so sure?" It has to do with bonuses in his contract. If he's on the season opening roster the bonuses don't count against the cap and if vested can be pushed to next year. If he's NOT on the season opening roster then when he's recalled during the season they have to account for his AAV PLUS his bonus money. So it's a guarantee he'll be on the season opening roster. Holloway too.
"Broberg is still too raw at the moment to play in the NHL." That's your opinion, not many share it. He has clearly been better than Samorukov and Murray so far in pre-season action, and he has a higher ceiling than both. I think he's pretty much a lock for 3LD from the start.</div></div>
At the expense of bonuses, I definitely agree, Broberg will be in the starting lineup, this is obvious.
But this means that Samorukov or Murray must be put through a waiver draft. Losing Samorukov for free is a bad decision. Holland decided to add experience in the person of Murray, in principle, in the first game, Murray showed himself as an experienced and stable defender. At the moment, he looks preferable to Samorukov. But losing Samorukov for free is bad. And to be honest, I was sure before the acquisition of Murray that Samorukov would be the seventh defender. And for our system in terms of prospects, this would be the best solution. And an experienced defender could be purchased before the playoffs. But now I'm afraid we will lose Samorukov through refusals.
And yes, I probably completely explained my position clearly. I also believe that Broberg is stronger than Samorukov and Murray, but given that Samorukov needs to be drafted through the waiver draft, I am afraid of losing him for free, this is the main reason why I have him higher than Broberg.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Broberg will be in the opening roster.</div></div>
Why are you so sure?
Firstly, if we keep Broberg in the first team, then we need to drop Samorukov or Murray to the AHL through the draft with refusals, this is a big risk of losing them, especially Samorukov. Is it possible that our system systematically for several years meticulously led Samorukov to the base, in order to lose him for free through a draft bounce at the beginning of the season, exactly at the moment when he came to a state where he could play in the main team, even if only the seventh defender in a limited role so far , but this is only the beginning. It seems to me that this step would be a bit reckless.
Secondly, after watching two pre-season games, I had an opinion about the game of each of the three defenders. I understand that a sample of one game for each defender is not enough, but still the main conclusions on the game of each can be drawn.
Broberg is still too raw at the moment to play in the NHL. My opinion, for him and for his development at this point in time, it is better for him to play in the top pair of the AHL, and get the lion's share of the time in equal compositions, in the majority and in the minority. After the deadline, when you can safely drop one of the defenders without fear of losing, for example, Murray, and raise Broberg to the playoffs in the third pair. Based on the results of the pre-season match that he played with Seattle, I can note the moments of his game. The ride is great, no question. His connection to attacks and individual passes deep into the attack zone, this is his trump card undoubtedly. He definitely needs to pull up the actions at his gate, he is not particularly quick.
Samorukov. He didn't show anything special, but he didn't make any blunders either. The game was pretty gray. I make allowances that he is still young and this is only the beginning of his journey to the NHL. In general, a good moment that no mistakes were made in defense.
Murray. You can see the calmness in actions, you can feel the experience behind you. In general, a calm game without panic. May be useful in the third pair. Experienced, in the golden age for a defender, he can still play for four years if injuries do not affect his career.
Well, firstly, it's unusual and nice to see a real journalist here, and a magazine, which I think is directly the official messenger of the thoughts of the Edmonton Oilers management in the person of Ken Holland. I think your magazine is in close collaboration with Ken Holland.
Secondly, thank you for your articles, Oilers fans are interested in reading articles about their favorite team from analysts directly related to the team and in the thick of things. It is from you that we learn the latest team news and the current situation in it.
Well, now on command. Although I am sure that you are certainly better informed and know all the nuances associated with the team. But let me express my opinion. I think Virtanen will be in the team, he can bring a productive game to the third three, as well as an element of physical play. And Macleod, in turn, will be placed in the center of the fourth link, I think it will be more useful for him to play his link, even the fourth one, for his development than to play on the flank of the third link.
I can't ask a question about Samorukov. If Samorukov is sent through refusals, then he will definitely be taken away. What were the years of developing Samorukov in our system for, just to lose him through the early-season draft waivers? Don't you think such actions are a little reckless? If, following the results of the pre-season games, Samorukov does not show a good game and literally collapses in the depth table in relation to his competitors, then in this case he should be changed to a draft pick of the third, fourth round, this is better than losing him for free.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Broberg already sat and watched in the last playoffs, he's going to get his TOI this year with the goal to playing regular minutes in the 2023 playoffs. The only way Holland brings in another LHD is if there's a major injury or Broberg falls flat on his face in the regular season - and then this deal won't happen until the deadline.</div></div>
Many pundits are of the opinion that Edmonton needs to step up their defense ahead of the upcoming play-offs in order to really qualify for the Stanley Cup. I fully agree with this point of view. And it's not that I don't believe in our young defensemen, it's that the playoffs are a natural meat grinder and just to keep us from literally burying our growing talent, we need to add one experienced player at the trade deadline. defense is a given. Do not forget that the playoffs are a very traumatic time, and just for elementary safety net in case of injuries of a defender from the top 4, we need another experienced defender who is able to take on big minutes. I think this acquisition is even more important than the acquisition of Patrick Kane, this is a fact. For the playoffs, defense is essential.
I guess in the season we will be included in the composition
Broberg will play a full regular season. This is the situation with Barry. I thought about this question and realized such a thing. Holland will not change Barry this season, fact. Barry is Holland's bet. The contract with Barry is the brainchild of Holland and he appreciates the fact that Barry trusted him and signed him as a free agent, this is not empty words for the general manager. Holland will give Barry an opportunity to win the Stanley Cup this season. Well, I’ll probably express the general opinion that none of the Edmonton fans wants to trade Barry, everyone understands how well he moves the puck and what variability Barry gives to our defense. In an ideal world, if not a salary cap, Barry will play out his contract calmly, and all the teams will really lick their lips at Barry. But the reality is that next summer will be the moment when Holland trades Barry, I think it will.
Further before the start of this season, I believe we will sign Chris Russell to a minimum contract, but that Russell, that Koekkoek will be lowered to the AHL. These steps will give us depth for this season. Samorukov will be the seventh defender of the season. And it is Samorukov who will be the consumable for which they will acquire an experienced defender. I think that they will acquire a left-back, because Barry will be in the third pair from the right. Broberg in this playoffs will be smoothly introduced into the game, not giving him all the games and even more big minutes. He will be the seventh defenseman in the playoffs.
Next year, I suppose we will enter the season with this lineup
And these guys are a damn strong gang, this line-up intrigues me.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pretzelcoatl</b></div><div>Suppose he clears waivers and you end up over the cap. What do you pay to dump his contract?</div></div>
Holland said in an interview this summer that he was ready to start the season with an under-roster (meaning maybe we start the season not with 23 players, but with 21 or 22 players in the roster due to the salary cap).
In our situation, I admit the following development of events. Suppose, although I do not believe it, Holland can not exchange Foegele even for future considerations, then Foegele, having gone through a full pre-season cycle with the team, will go through refusals and even if in this case no one will take him (although given that he is an excellent player of the average six and I'm sure he will play excellent pre-season games and some team must take him), then in this case Edmonton will have the opportunity to send Foegele to the AHL, they will not necessarily send him there, but there will be such a possibility, and accordingly if he goes there and Ryan will go in the same direction, Edmonton will have the opportunity to enter the beginning of the season with 21 people, which is basically normal for the beginning of the season, not ideal of course, but not deadly. And then during the injury season, long-term injury lists and who knows, maybe this is Holland's plan, someone from the roster with an average contract will leave for a month or two in LTIR and then Edmonton will have the opportunity to fit 23 players under the ceiling. Also, do not forget that other teams will also have injuries, and perhaps the teams will become more accommodating and then there will be a real opportunity to exchange Foegele.
And let's not forget about Arizona, for which the salary cap is not a problem, and which will probably take Foegele into its squad, since again Foegele is an excellent player in the middle six.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pretzelcoatl</b></div><div>I say the same thing about Andreas Johnsson, and I get told I'm dreaming. There is no team in the league who would prefer Foegele to Andreas Johnsson, Mike McLeod, or Nate Bastian, all of whom look poised to not make the Devils this year. The only teams that have room for Foegele are the ones with no need to pay for him, like Arizona. Arizona probably waiver claims him, and definitely Johnsson, but if you want a morcel of value in return you're gonna have to give a damn good reason why a team would pay for that awful contract.</div></div>
Well, firstly, the contract is not terrible, this time, if Edmonton had not been pressed to the ceiling, he would have calmly finished his contract.
Secondly, we do not need any asset for it, realizing that we are pressed to the ceiling, we are ready to give it away for future considerations, but please do not confuse, we will not pay extra, because Foegele is a valuable asset.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HockeyIsMyPassion61</b></div><div>You're not getting rid of Foegele without attaching at least a 2nd round pick.
And once again that's a pretty poor offer for a future HOF players like Patrick Kane.</div></div>
Can I write down your thoughts?
For Foegele, see above.
About Kane. If you think that Chicago is in a winning position in this exchange, then it is not. If you're looking for a top 6 player, a promising prospect who finished the season at the top of the OHL, a first-round pick considered by many to be the strongest in recent years, and a second-round pick is not enough, then good luck finding a better offer. And you want this for one playoff, albeit an amazing player, but just a reminder that this player has a complete ban on movement and, accordingly, the player is able to simply block the transition for personal reasons, despite any fabulous offer. I think the Rangers and Oilers are the favorites for the trade for Kane, and with which team the trade will take place will depend on the whole and completely on the decision of Kane himself.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ceeque84</b></div><div>Im ok with going out and getting P Kane IF it doesnt involve trading Pujli, Holloway, Bourgault, or Bouch.
Also i get its for cap purposes, but repalcing Barrie with Subban is not good.... plus Dallas does not have the cap space to take on Barrie.</div></div>
See the situation is this. In order for us to get under the ceiling, we need to give up one of the players with medium contracts, this is a fact. With the addition of Holloway, Foegele falls into the fourth three, and Holland's acquisition of Gianmark tells us that Holland pre-determined Foegele to leave the team, although he is a good player, he was a victim of his contract and for Edmonton he was in the fourth three, became superfluous.
Then, to add Kane, we need to remove someone else. We do not touch Pulyujärvi otherwise we will critically weaken the attack, so the next one to exit is Barry. Without Barry waived, we simply can't add Kane to our team even with a quarter of the salary. Yes, a similar situation, as with Foegele, in an ideal world, I would not refuse them, but the salary cap forces us to abandon useful players.
And then with the current lineup of the defense, objectively everyone agrees that for the playoffs we need to strengthen the defense, so we would still have to give up Barry to add someone. Barry is a good blueliner, but I think Subban is at least as good as Barry in defensive action for third pair and at a price four times cheaper than Barry's, and we can use the saved space under the ceiling at the deadline of the exchange to increase protection.
At the expense of Dallas, I really missed that they do not have enough space under the ceiling, yes, I agree, so you can try to move it for the same price, for example, Seattle, Ottawa or Buffalo.