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Forum: NHLSat at 6:59 am
Thread: What would the other 3 divisions look like next year if there was a Canadian division?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>This isn't about next contract. It's about this next season. This is not baseball or NASCAR. Believe me, the cost of a nascar team is no where near the cost of a NHL team. And the sources of revenue are vastly different.
And baseball has a pretty sweet, although undeserved at this point, TV deal.
We aren't talking about a small chuck of change here. You don't seem to get that. There are already teams in the NHL who are unprofitable even with gate sales. You take that away and you are looking at huge loses. And while I'm sure some owners have the deep pockets to deal with it, others frankly do not.
Even the owner of VGK stated they are losing money with no fans inside. A huge part of their ability to operate is hotel comps. The number of visitors is lower, and they are only allowed 10% capacity in vegas for indoor events casino's etc...
You have come to some conclusions that just aren't logical here.
It's the same fallacy people had made prior. Oh it's just this season, we'll get through the playofffs and everything will be fine.
But then there is reality, that you are looking at long term changes here. Because it keeps spreading and it's not controlled. And people continue to panic over it.
Vaccines aren't 100%, at best they are saying 50%. First flue vaccines were 20% effective. This isn't much different.
This isn't simply a 1 year issue. Much like it isn't a just the playoffs issue and everything will be fine soon after. There is a reality they are having to deal with now.
That reality is the current system is not sustainable, and they are being honest about that. And that they aren't just blindly going to say, we'll do this season and oh well......
This is a business. Two years of huge losses and then a hopefully we can get a better TV deal, isn't cutting it.
You seem to not realize that. They aren't running the league so NBC can make the profit. Much like they weren't stopping their league so they Olympics could pocket large sums of money and not cut them in.</div></div>

You're not getting it. There is no reason for NBC to pay out more money, they have an expiring contract. They don't care about the NHL (per say), they care about what money the NHL can bring them for their bottom line. They showed this when the NHL decided not to send teams to the Olympics a few years ago. They just went with the Olympics and didn't show any NHL games during that timeframe. Plus they've already figured out how to fill the air time from the abrupt stoppage of games earlier this year too. If the tables were flipped and everyone just decided to stop watching games and the viewership/ratings tanked do you think the NHL would refund the money to NBC to cover the loss? No they would stick by their contract terms.

Money isn't just tight for NHL teams it's tight for tv stations too.
-MSG (NY teams) took a big operating loss last year, because of the Covid.
-Disney now owns Fox Sports "local" (lots of teams this is their local station) and they are taking big hits in their revenue with parks being closed or partially open, not much going on for movies being filmed, and they just laid off 28,000 people. They also show the NBA and MLB games which will run concurrently with the NHL season next season.

If the Covid never goes away there will be a new norm set for pro sports. Teams will lose value and players pay will go down accordingly or there will be a league contraction (like the KHL). This is just dollars and cents business. If an owner is losing money, and not okay with it, costs will be cut until the team makes money or at least breaks even. The players won't be happy, but not much they can really do, there really isn't anywhere else they can make similar money in their current profession. Unprofitable teams may end up moving or be sold (STL, SD, OAK all lost NFL teams to different markets in the last couple of years).

Owners/GMs are already planning for this, just look at the contracts given out recently:
Feb 1st - Aug 1st (2019): 18 contracts $6m or higher a year, 6 of those $9m or higher a year.
Aug 2nd, 2019 -Jan 31, 2020: 17 contracts $6m or higher a year, 4 of those $9m or higher a year
Feb 1, 2020-present: 9 contract $6m or higher, the highest is $8.8m/yr. If this was another industry (tech, houses, etc.) people would be saying the bubble burst and the market is resetting itself.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 6:12 pm
Thread: NYI Fans Pls Help
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CowSaysMoo</b></div><div>Disagree. This return is better than the one that nearly went through at the trade deadline. The second rounder is more valuable to me than Kiefer Bellows. I would rather see a younger player in there rather than Parise, even if it means taking a step back.

Also, Ryan Hartman will not be traded for only a draft pick at the deadline. The teams in the hunt will be cap-strapped.</div></div>

TDL is easier to make cap work. It's only not his full cap hit just the 800k or so that he'll be due for the rest of the season, easy enough to retain half of that and not hurt either team. There is also the chance MN takes a Chucky type of rental cap dump back as offset. Plus there is always someone on LTIR that opens up cap. This is why Hartman will have value at the TDL: he's cheap, he chips in points, plays a decent d-zone game, and is physical.

That 1st might not even be better than Bellow, let alone the 2nd; remember the Phillips (late 1st) and Lucia (late 2nd) draft year? It's bad cap for a couple of mystery boxes; which may or may not do anything for the team in the next 4 years; trade. It's just bad for MN for the next 3 years (Ladd's cap). Parise is an unknown how he'll be in 3 years.

Add in Bellows (decent prospect) and another 1st and I might consider it, now it's just a bad deal for MN.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 5:04 pm
Thread: NYI Fans Pls Help
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CowSaysMoo</b></div><div>There is very little salary being added on in the end by the Wild. About $500,000. The Islanders are shedding salary.</div></div>

It does nothing for MN. It just makes them worse and adds even more bad cap to the team. You're trading away a middle-6 wing and a bottom-6 wing for a pure cap dump and an overpayed 4th line wing. And all there is to show is a late 1st and a late 2nd for the deal. At best you flip Clutterbuck for another 2nd at the TDL in a season and a half.

You could probably flip Hartman for a 2nd/3rd at the TDL this year if you wanted because he's not a true rental and is a guy Playoff teams are always looking for. Parise is overpayed for what he is as a player, but he's still a quality NHL player.
Forum: NHLFri at 4:47 pm
Thread: What would the other 3 divisions look like next year if there was a Canadian division?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>It doesn't matter if the contract is already signed. If they want games they are probably going to have to pay more. That is the basic message out of VGK owner.
You can try to justify it to yourself all day. But if you read between the lines of what he said, that's basically it.
He directly mentioned the TV deal as not cutting it for them to operate with no gate. Period.
I don't know why you are trying to argue it. He directly laid the issues out. None of this other stuff you went on a tangent about has anything to do with it.
The cost of operating a league, on their current TV deals isn't sustainable.
None of the owners want to take a loss.

On top of it, they have no idea how to actually do this with the border closed and not being able to bubble all 31 teams in any kind of reasonable way that anyone could agree too.

So keep going on about all of nothing there. But all these things are true.
Furthermore, the point on the draft still stands. If the prospects don't get to play, and they closed the Q after like 4 games. That's a massive blow to the league. Drafting without seeing these guys play the year before their draft is huge. So many guys move up draft boards in their -1 year. That's gone. The draft is gonna be a total mess.
No year to see them play. No combine again. That's just not sustainable year after year.</div></div>

The VGK owner is looking at the next tv contract, not the current one that expires at the end of the 20-21 season. Those talks will come after the NFL figures out their new deals. If NBC gets outbid for the next NHL contract to ESPN, Fox, or whoever; then what real cause do they have to pay more for a product that's leaving them anyways? The MLB just played a 60 game season without fans; NASCAR went without fans for most of their season, NFL has some fans in the but not anywhere near capacity. The NHL will do the same. The players and owners both take a hit. I'm not worried about the owners, they all just pocketed a chuck of cash from Vegas and are getting another one for Seattle. That money was exempt from the players 50/50 profit share also.

So what if the draft is a little more guesswork this year? Most teams will just go with the safer picks in the first couple of rounds and take their swings in the later rounds. The NHL could also extend the draft a couple of rounds with compensation picks if they wanted. Or worst case someone slips through the cracks and signs as a FA somewhere or goes back into the draft pool the next year. If anything it could make the TDL much more interesting with some teams punting on this year's draft and others stocking up to have as many chances as they can at getting a steal.
Forum: NHLFri at 1:52 am
Thread: What would the other 3 divisions look like next year if there was a Canadian division?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NoWah49</b></div><div>The NHL has to move on the fly considering what border regulations are at the time. Plus, the only Canadien team that's actually guaranteed to probably be bad are the Sens. It's just not fair for Canadien teams to face teams like Toronto, Winnipeg, Edmonton, etc. while in another division a team like the Bruins are constantly facing teams like Buffalo, Detroit, New Jersey, etc. There's already an uproar concerning the current playoff format, just imagine what it will be with this</div></div>

The Central Division has dealt with that most every season since it was created. They've had 4 total teams with a sub .500 points total for the season in the 6 years these Divisions have been around, and only one of those four was a bottom-5 team (16-17 Avs).
Forum: NHLFri at 1:38 am
Thread: What would the other 3 divisions look like next year if there was a Canadian division?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>this whole situation is just Fudgery.

Can you imagine the draft next year with no games from the CHL and the euro leagues stopping play.

I don't even think they can make this work currently Not after the VGK owners remarks.
He basically laid down the law, I think it's a clue to the TV networks. If you want hockey, pay up.
Because they can't afford to run a league.</div></div>

Viewership is down across all sports for last year, even with people staying home more. All the tv contracts are ready under contract (as far as I know). There is no reason for the networks to negotiate a higher paying deal.

The later the season start gets pushed back the less reason there is for the US networks to care much about hockey. MLB has spring training games in Feb, The NFL is in the Playoffs in Jan with Superbowl is in Feb. NASCAR starts in Feb. The Olympics are supposed to be this Summer. The NBA is trying to start around x-mas. MLS is planning to start in Feb. Filling the scheduled NHL time-blocks won't be too difficult for local or national stations.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 7:59 pm
Thread: Murphy
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NorthStarHockey</b></div><div>When did Kerfoot’s value explode up to a 2nd?</div></div>

A 2nd is in the ballpark of his value.

Toews got a pair of 2nd's, Donato got a 3rd, Kapanen got a 1st+. Kerfoot isn't a cap dump, he's a fairly paid 3C, with 3 years of term, so is 2nd is a fair offer for him.

Before all the other trades GMBG made it wouldn't have been a bad deal for MN. Staal/JEE/Kerfoot/Strum would have made a good (not great) group of centers. Staal and Kerfoot lines are the o-zone lines. JEE and Strum the d-zone lines. MN has/had the wings to make it work. You figure Donato+ for Kerfoot, or Greenway/Kerfoot 1 for 1 would have been fair deals that both sides are arguing who should add a 4th rounder.

Now there isn't any reason for the Wild to make the trade so they pass. Too much cap and lots of players already going for the same position on the Wild.
Forum: Minnesota WildWed at 6:19 pm
Thread: Patrik Laine
Just spit balling here without knowing who goes in the expansion draft.
-Parise and Liane $7.5m each ($15m)
-Zucc, Fiala, Kaprizov $6m each ($18m) - going with Fiala and Kaprizov being outstanding and pair accordingly.
-Suter, Spurgeon, Brodin ($21m)
-$13m in Rask, Greenway, Soucy, Strum, and goalies.
-So that leaves $14m to cover JEE's raise, 2 bottom pair d-men, 1 top-6 center, 1 bottom-6 center, 2 bottom-6 wings. if Kaprizov/Fiala take $4m bridge deals it adds $4m to that.

What does a top-6 center cost? $6m-$10m/yr. We've run out of trade chips with Dumba gone, so it's a UFA signing.
JEE gets a $3m bridge deal?
It would take guys on their ELC's and league min filling the rest of the roster and you're still at/over the cap.

The math doesn't work out to trade Dumba for a wing. The GM dumped 2 wings this offseason, and a 3rd during last season and the roster is still overfilled with wings.

All that comes to mind is the 13-14 Oilers but with a better defense. JEE=RNH, Laine = Hall, Fiala = Eberle, Kaprizov = Perron, Parise = Hemsky, and Zucc = Yak.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct 13 at 11:55